Discussion Topics

Bob Weigel

Space Wx PoliciesSpace Wx Codes

Space Wx Forecasting

The CISM Knowledge Transfer Short Course AFWA Omaha, November 2-3, 2005

First Topic:

Space Wx Policies

CISM Short Course

Space Wx Policies

Basic Questions

Why does space weather matter?

What does space weather bring to the fight?

What are the impacts of space weather events?

Space Wx Policies

Why does AFWA care about space wx?

Because AFWA is the sole source of operational space environment support to the Department of Defense.

Space Wx Policies

Joint Publication 3-59

One mission of the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) is to provide timely

and accurate space environment observations, analyses, forecasts, and warnings to enhance the operational capability of worldwide DOD forces

and national agencies.

Space Wx Policies

Why does space weather matter?

Because most military activities and modern capabilities within the battlefield depend in some way on the space environment.

Most military activities operate in, communicate through, are commanded from, or are impacted by the space environment.

Space Wx Policies

Space Wx Policies

A few examples:• Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) scintillation degrades

• Precision guided munitions GPS errors on system guidance

• Safeguarding EOS satellites US forces would have had little to no warning of severe dust storms during combat ops

• LEO satellites orbit degradation due to increased density

• Command & Control HF communications degraded due to solar flares.

Space Wx Policies

Solar Electromagnetic Radiation

Solar Particle Radiation

Solar Flares

Solar Wind

Auroral Phenomena

Near-Earth Radiation

Upper Atmospheric Density

Ionospheric Density

Ionospheric Disturbances

Space Environment Affected System

Space Wx Policies

What does space weather bring to the fight?

Accurate and timely space wx information enables the war fighter to anticipate and exploit the space environment for operational advantage.

Exploit the space environment through:

• precision navigation

• timing and tracking capabilities

• autonomous and remotely piloted unmanned vehicles

• very stringent geolocation requirements to support precision targeting

Time out for discussion

As the AF evolves its command, control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems, it will depend ever

more on space weather characterization and forecasting.

How can the AF prepare itself ?

Space Wx Policies

There will be a “tsunami” of space environment data, characterized by much higher resolution and fidelity.

• Foster development and implementation of new space weather models to improve accuracy and timeliness

• Integrate meaningful space weather information into warfighter command and control, planning, and execution systems

• Develop impact reporting, analysis and archiving processes of space weather events to improve support to warfighters

• Leverage existing and create new partnerships within the space weather community

Space Wx Policies

Space Wx Policies

What are the impacts of space weather events?

Let’s take a look at the major recent Space Storm!

CISM Short Course

The Halloween Storms of 2003

October 19th – November 7th

Colorado Flatirons Aurora – Oct 2003

Photo by Stan Soloman

• 26 Oct: San Francisco Communications Center reported frequency fade during solar activity from 1600Z to 2400Z. Central West Pacific hardest hit. Frequency fade increased in intensity and affected all frequencies on all HF groups.

• C-130 operations in Antarctica changed landing and take-off restrictions during the HF blackout periods.

• A major airline rerouted six polar flights to non-polar routes requiring fuel stops in Japan and/or Anchorage (Numerous other US flights rerouted or restricted).

• A maritime interdiction mission which required 100% communications was cancelled based on AFWA scintillation forecast.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• 26 Oct: SMART-1 in lunar transfer orbit had auto shutdown of engine due to increased radiation level (reported a total of three shutdowns).

• 26 Oct: Chandra X-ray astronomy satellite observations halted due to high radiation levels (observations resumed on 1 Nov).

• 28 Oct: Kodama a Japanese data relay satellite in geosynchronous orbit entered safe mode and transmitted noisy signals (JAXA recovers the spacecraft on 7 Nov).

• 28 Oct: MARIE instrument on Mars Odyssey had a temperature red alarm leading it to be powered off (the instrument did not recover).

Halloween Storms

Halloween Storms

• 28 Oct: SOHO spacecraft at the L1 point had SCDS instrument commanded into safe mode for 3 days.

• 29 Oct: Mars Odyssey entered safe mode during the severe radiation storm. The spacecraft had a memory error during download (corrected by cold reboot on 31 Oct).

• 29 Oct: NASA directed all instruments on AQUA, Landsat, TERRA, TOMS, TRMM spacecraft be turned off or “safed” due to storm warnings.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• NOAA 17 AMSU-A1 lost scanner. • ACE and Wind solar wind satellites lost plasma observations.• 30 Oct: DMSP F14 SSM/T-2 sensor lost data. Microwave sounder lost oscillator;

switched to redundant system. • 31 Oct 03: JAXA declared ADEOS-II a total loss.

This ended US Navy efforts to enhance sea surface wind data collection leveraging NASA’s SeaWinds instrument.

• GOES-9 & 10 had high bit error rates; GEOS-12 had magnetic torquers disabled;GOES XRS instrument saturated at the X17.4 level for 12 minutes.

• AFSPC corrected for satellite orbit changes by running satellite drag models based on advanced warning of geomagnetic and solar activity indices.

• 30 Oct: power system failure occurred in Malmo, Sweden, resulting in blackout conditions for about one hour.

• NERC commented that some electric systems reported higher than normal Ground Induced Currents (GICs) that resulted in fluctuations in the MW and MVAR output of some generating units. (A capacitor tripped in the NW).

• One Early Warning Radar switched from commercial to generator power to avoid damage from GICs-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• Flight controllers issued contingency directives for the ISS Expedition 8 crew(briefly relocate to the aft portion of the station's Zvezda Service Module and the Temporary Sleep Station (TeSS) in the US Lab).

• The ISS experienced significant abnormal frictional drag.

• NASA did a ground-commanded powerdown of the billion dollar robotic arm.

Halloween Storms

What had happened?

28-29 Oct 2003

“The (near) Perfect Solar Storm”

during Solar Cycle 23

Halloween Storms

488484

486

In just over one week,3 very large & complex

sunspot clusters emerged on the Sun …

Region 486, at 2610 millionths, became the

largest sunspot group of Solar Cycle 23

Halloween Storms

… produced, at that point, the largest flare

of Solar Cycle 23 X17 (R4 – Severe)

XRS Data

1E-07

1E-06

1E-05

1E-04

1E-03

1E-02

28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov

Date

G12

Xra

ys .

1-.8

A X

M

B

C

X10 (R4), Reg 486 (S15W02)Full Halo CME (1948 km/s)Proton Producer -Radiation Storm in progress

Halloween Storms

… produced the fastest CME of Solar Cycle 23

~ 2300 km/s

Halloween Storms

… produced the 2nd largest radiation storm of Solar Cycle 23 (S4 – Severe)

Halloween Storms

… produced the largest geomagnetic storm of Solar

Cycle 23 (G5 – Extreme)

Halloween Storms

Summary

17 Major flares (>R2) 6 Radiation storms (>S1)

4 Geomagnetic storms (>G2) 

This activity occurred 3.5 years after the peak month of Solar Cycle 23 in Apr 2000

Halloween Storms

Time out for discussions

• Which AFWA systems are vulnerable to severe space weather events (such as the Halloween storm)?

• Which AFWA system impacts (or losses) can be avoided or mitigated

– at current level of space wx service?

– with improved level of space wx service?

• What are the strategic, tactical, readiness consequences of a severe space weather event?

Space Wx Policies

A path for improvement

How can AFWA improve the assessment, mitigation, and planning of space wx events on its systems and mission?

By a better characterization and forecasting of the space wx!

A better characterization can be achieved through

1. more detailed space environment data

2. more accurate space environment models

CISM Short Course

CISM Short Course

Second Topic:

Space Wx Codes

Basic Questions

What space science models do we develop?

How do we test space science models?

What is our timeline for science model development?

Space Wx Codes

Space Wx Codes

What space science models do we develop?

CISM develops empirical and physical space science models

The models form an Sun-to-Earth end-to-end chain

Space Wx Codes

The CISM Science Model Development Suite

Empirical Models:

Ap IndexDst IndexSolar Wind Speed @ L1

B, |dB|/dtMeV Electrons @ GEOMeV Electrons f(L)

Physics Models:

MAS: solar coronal MHDENLIL: heliospheric MHDLFM: global magnetospheric MHDRCM: radiation belt modelTIECGM: iono/thermo-spheric modelINTERCOMM/Overture: framework

Space Wx Codes

How do we test space science models?

CISM has devised a process for verifying and validating space science models

Space Wx Codes

Code Testing Definitions (AIAA 1998)

Model – a representation of a physical system or processModeling – the process of constructing or modifying a modelSimulation – the exercise or use of a modelVerification – the process of determining the degree to which a model implementation accurately represents the model design Validation – the process of determining the degree to which a model accurately represents the physical system or process Uncertainty – the potential deficiency in the modeling process due to lack of knowledgeError – the recognizable deficiency in the modeling process not due to lack of

knowledgePrediction – the use of a model to foretell the state of a physical system under

conditions for which the model has not been validatedCalibration – the process of adjusting model parameters for the purpose of improving the agreement of the model with the observations

Distinction: Code Verification and Code Validation (Roache 1998)

Space Wx Codes

Nature

Model Design GoalActual Validity

Desired Validity

Theory:Mathematical

Description

Code:Numerical

Implementation

Verificationsolving the

equations right

Validationsolving the

right equations

Space Wx Codes

The CISM Science Model Verification & Validation Process

Verification Process:

Regression testingTest runs, ideal problemsConvergence studiesParameter studiesBenchmarkingCode-to-code comparisons

Verification report

Validation Process:

Defining appropriate metricsEvent-based analysisEpochal/Time-series analysisDefining appropriate performance measuresPerformance efficiency, contingency tablesProbabilistic interpretation

Validation report

What is our timeline for science model development?

CISM is currently defining a project schedule for its science models

Space Wx Codes

Space Wx Codes

Model CVS

frozen

Validation

report

CCMC

deliveryDescription

CORHEL 1.0 MAS+ENLIL

12/04 12/05 MAS, ENLIL

resident

Global ambient solar wind specification driven by KPO synoptic maps.

CMIT 1.0

LFM+TING

12/04 One-way coupled model driven by measured or modeled solar wind parameters at L1.

Ambient Solar Wind 1.0

WSA+ENLIL

10/05 12/05 Daily global ambient solar wind specification driven by KPO synoptic maps.

CORHEL 2.0 MAS+ENLIL

08/05 Global ambient solar wind specification driven by synoptic maps from MWO, WSO, NSO.

LTR 1.0

CMIT+RCM

08/05 LFM two-way coupled to both RCM and TING. Coupled model provides Region 2 currents and penetration electric fields.

SEPMOD 1.0 12/06 Energetic particles from parameterized shock source using shocks and fields from cone model

Time out for discussions

• Which CISM empirical or physical science models are of interest to AFWA?

• Where are similarities, where are differences between CISM and AFWA in the development of science models?

• What requirements are needed, which processes put in place, what kind of agreements being made, for a fruitful collaboration between CISM and AFWA?

Space Wx Codes

CISM Short Course

Third Topic:

Space Wx Forecasting

Space Wx Forecasting

Basic Questions

What forecast models do we have?

How do we design our forecast models?

How do we transition a science model into a space weather code?

What forecast models do we have?

CISM has developed an empirical Sun-Earth forecasting chain

CISM will develop forecast products from selected physical models

Space Wx Forecasting

The CISM Sun to Earth Forecasting chain

L1-EarthPropagation

SurfaceB, dB/dt

MeV ElectronFlux

External FieldVB

F

Solar Boundary Measurements

SWPropagation

Ap,Dst MSIS90

ACE Measurements

Solar Radiance Measurements

Space Wx Forecasting

The CISM Sun to Earth Forecasting chain

blue bars: daily measured values (SW, Ap)black bars: 1-day predicted values (SW, Ap)grey stripe: 27-days of recent solar rotationcolored lines: watch/warning levels

Solar Wind Speed

Planetary A Index

Electron Flux (2-9 MeV)

Space Wx Forecasting

Solar Wind Speed at L11-7 day lead time prediction

Prediction derived from 4 components:- Persistence- Autoregression- WSA from WSO synoptic map- WSA from NSO synoptic map

The CISM Sun to Earth Forecasting chain

Planetary A Index1-7 day lead time prediction

Prediction derived from 3 components:- Persistence- Autoregression (AR)- AR with daily solar wind speed from ACE (AR with WSA solar wind speed possible)

Planetary A Index

Solar Wind Speed

Space Wx Forecasting

The CISM Ambient Solar Wind Forecasting Model

Startup

Get r/t KPO Photospheric Field

ENLILPropagate Solar

Wind to L1

Data ProcessorSynoptic Maps

CISM_DXCoronal Hole Structure

Code CouplerCompute ENLILInner Boundary

WSAExpansion FactorsB Field Strengths

CISM_DXSynoptic Map Animation

CISM_DXInner Boundary

Velocity StructureWSA

Propagate SolarWind to L1

CISM_DXHeliosphericTomography

CISM_DXSolar Wind

Prediction at L1

Space Wx Forecasting

WSOSynopticMaps

WSASourceSurface

02/08/9501/19/9512/31/94

CR 1891 CR 1892

L1

Vsw

The CISM Ambient Solar Wind Forecasting Model

CoronalHoles

Space Wx Forecasting

Empirical Model Forecast Products Physical Model Forecast Products

Ap Index: daily 1-7 day forecast, 3-hourly running ap index

Radiation Belt Model (MeV Electron): daily forecast of L-shell distribution, daily forecast of energy & pitch angle distribution

WSA (data import module): “synoptic” maps from white light, EUV, SXI images WSA (prediction module): 3-4 day forecast of wind speed & polarity at L1, daily animated view of the ecliptic plane WSA (analysis module): daily coronal hole maps

Cone Model: on-demand best guess of ejection direction

SPE Model:on-demand characterization of solar protons

dB/dt Model: daily regional ground magnetic variations

WSA-ENLIL Ambient Solar Wind: 3-4 day forecast of plasma parameters at L1, 3-4 day forecast of stream interface (fast/slow) at L1,daily estimates of arrival times and duration,daily animated view of the ecliptic plane

WSA-ENLIL-Cone Global Solar Wind:daily forecast of transient events at L1,daily estimates of arrival times and duration,daily animated view of the ecliptic plane,on-demand characterization of shock plane at L1

LFM-TI(E)NG Geospace Model:daily shape and location of the magnetopause,daily size and extend of the aurora boundary,daily polar cap potential,daily strength and position of the electrojet,

daily 3-d neutral atmosphere & wind velocity vectors,daily 3-d electron density,on demand line-of-site electron contents,daily maps of ionospheric irregularities

nowcasts and forecasts up to 3 days ahead

Space Wx Forecasting

How do we design our forecast models?

Design criteria: modular, portable, user friendly, documented

Models are verified and validated

Products and outputs are standardized

Space Wx Forecasting

How do we transition a science model into a space weather code?

CISM is developing a process for transitioning models into SEC

Space Wx Forecasting

CISM Devel:Science Model

S/W Engineering:Testing, CVS,User’s Guide SM Validation:

Validation ReportFinalize S/E

SEC Devel bed:Testing periodMature/Adapt FM Validation:

Reports & DocsOps Manual

SEC Test bed:Evaluation period

Training/IntegrSEC Ops:

Operational Model

VT freezes

KT ports

SEC invites

SEC reviews

VT validates

KT validates

KT trains

SEC selects

SEC accepts

VT: Validation Team

KT: Knowledge Xfer Team

SM: Scientific ModelFM: Forecast Model

Space Wx Forecasting

The CISM Forecast Model Transfer Process

Time out for discussions

• How does AFWA plan to move towards physics-based models?

• How does AFWA arrive at a standardized operational picture?

– standardize forecast products and outputs

– standardize architecture and data flow

• What would a transition plan for CISM science models into AFWA operational models look like?

Space Wx Forecasting