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Q1 2018 business update 2017 preliminary Results Disciplined growth, higher margins 30 May 2018 JP Morgan European insurance conference

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Page 1: Disciplined growth, higher margins/media/Files/J/JRMS... · Final dividend 2.55p, +6%. 2017 total dividends 3.72p, +6%. ... Non-recurring and project expenditure (12) (21) Investment

Q1 2018 business update

2017 preliminary Results

Disciplined growth, higher margins

30 May 2018JP Morgan European insurance conference

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2017 Interim results

Q1 2018 business update

Highlights

Continued pricing discipline

Marked increase in DB opportunities as EBCs proactively manage the industry pipeline and the market becomes less seasonal

GIfL sales continue to benefit from regulatory initiatives to encourage shopping around. We continue to invest in HUB

Q1 18 LTM sales at 33% of Retirement Income (“RI”) sales were up 42%, in line with growth in RI as we optimise matching

A

Just Group

published 17 May 2018

£m %

Q1 18 Q1 17 Change FY 17

Defined Benefit De-risking 249 125 99 998

GIfL 188 174 8 821

Care Plans 17 17 2 72

Retirement Income sales 454 317 43 1,890

Drawdown 11 12 (2) 51

Protection 1 2 (50) 6

Lifetime Mortgage advances 151 107 42 510

Total New Business sales 617 436 41 2,457

Note (1): GIfL – Guaranteed Income for Life(2) Column sums may differ from totals due to rounding

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2017 Preliminary Results

1 5 march 2018

Disciplined growth, higher margins

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2017 preliminary results 4

Disciplined growth, higher margins

New business margin rose from 6.8% to 9.0%. New business profit up 37%

Our focus on profit over volume has delivered a 35% increase in adjusted pre-tax operating profit

£52m of run rate cost synergies, one year ahead of schedule

Successful £230m T3 issue since year end, taking our pro forma SCR coverage ratio to 156%New banking facility and inaugural credit rating achieved during the year

EEV 228p per share. IFRS TNAV 165p per share

Final dividend 2.55p, +6%. 2017 total dividends 3.72p, +6%

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2017 preliminary results

1,728 1,917 2,119

2,497 2,336 2,259

2015 2016 2017

OMO Rest of market

5

Attractive growth markets

Historical and expected growth in DB de-risking transactions (£bn) Growth in the external GIfL market (£m)

Industry lifetime mortgage advances (£m) Source: ABI and Just analysis

Source: ERC and Just analysis

41%

+11%

OMO as % of total market

5.2 4.47.5

13.2 12.3

10.2

9.0

12 15

700

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017P- LCP

2018P-LCP

2017-2031P

Buy-in / Buy-out Backbook acq. Projections

Source – PPF, Hymans Robertson, LCP

19.2

77

2

92

0

1,0

73

1,3

79

1,6

02

2,1

49 3,0

57

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Industry lifetime mortgage advances (£m)

+42% DB market remains exciting, solid long term growth prospects intact

Our addressable GIfL market, the Open Market Option (“OMO”) is up 11% in 2017 v 2016

Strong 2017 lifetime mortgage market momentum, exceeding £3bn for the first time. Just expect a £6.6bn market by 2021

+11%

45% 48%

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2017 preliminary results 6

Financial reSULTS

Simon ThomasGroup chief financial officer

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2017 preliminary results 7

Summary IFRS results

Just Group

£m

FY 17FY 16

Pro forma%

change

New business profit 170 124 37

In-force operating profit 71 75 (5)

Underlying operating profit 241 199 21

Operating experience and assumption changes

35 3 -

Other Group company results (15) (12) 22

Reinsurance and finance costs (40) (26) 56

Adjusted pre-tax operating profit

221 164 35

Note: Column sums may differ from totals due to rounding

Margin expansion, 4% Retirement Income sales increase

Higher opening reserves more than offset by bond spread tightening and lower earnings on surplus assets

Includes 12 months interest from T2 issued in Oct 2016

Mainly driven by new business profit growth

Expense savings partly offset by mortgage strengthening

Comment

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2017 preliminary results 8

FY 2017 sales

Just Group

£m

FY 17FY 16

Pro forma%

change

Defined Benefit De-risking 998 943 6

Guaranteed Income for Life 821 778 5

Care Plans 72 97 (26)

Retirement Income sales 1,890 1,819 4

Drawdown 51 25 103

Protection 6 5 28

Lifetime mortgage advances 510 559 (9)

Total New Business sales 2,457 2,408 2

Note: Column sums may differ from totals due to rounding

Continued focus on margin over volume

Addressable GIfL market continues to grow

Comment

Discontinued during 2018

Uncertainly over future government care policy

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2017 preliminary results 9

Strong IFRS new business profitability post merger

6.0%

4.2%3.3%

6.8%

9.0%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

A significant improvement in new business margins New business profit (£m, calendar year)

New business margins (calendar year)

142

83 68

124

170

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2017 saw an increase in new business margins driven by similar factors as in the first half

o Continued pricing discipline

o Attractive mortgage spreads

o Cost synergies driving improved unit costs

o Longer duration liabilities enabling increased mortgage backing ratio

Note 1: Pro forma prior to 2017

+37%

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2017 preliminary results

70 74

55 5545

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10

IFRS in-force profit

64

7671

7571

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

In-force profit down 5% at £71m

Result is driven by

o Higher opening reserves driven by netinflows offset by

o Fall in corporate bond spreads and impacton bond default allowance

o Lower earnings on surplus assets

In-force profit stability In-force profit1 (£m, calendar year)

In-force margins2 (bps)

Note 1: Pro forma prior to 2017

Note 2: Basis change in JRL from 1/1/2015 reflecting adoption of a compounding accrual of mortgage yield from straight line previously. The total return recognised over the life of the mortgage is unchanged

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2017 preliminary results 11

Positive operating experience variances and assumption changes

18.6

(6.6) (5.6)

2.6

34.6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

We have released £90m of expense reserves asthe synergy benefits reduce in-force expenseallowances

General population longevity trends have madeour standard underwritten DB assumptionsappear conservative, but we have strengthenedour mortgage assumptions

We remain comfortable with our medicallyunderwritten reserving basis and will reviewwhen our IP datasets have been fullyharmonised

Operating experience variances and assumption changesOperating experience variances and assumption changes1,2 (£m,

calendar year)

Note 1: Pro forma prior to 2017

Note 2: In 2013, Partnership benefited from an expense assumption profit after it transferred a block of in-force reinsured GIfL and Care Plans onto its in-house administration platform. This was the

primary driver behind a £21m positive contribution from assumption and other changes, resulting in a pro forma £18.6m

Analysis of operating experience variances and assumption changes

£m 2017

Maintenance expenses 90

Experience variances (15)

Mortality reserves (30)

Other (10)

Net experience variances and assumption changes 35

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2017 preliminary results 12

Statutory IFRS results: focus on non-operating items

Just Group

£m

FY 1718 months to Dec 161

Adjusted operating profit before tax 221 216

Non-recurring and project expenditure (12) (21)

Investment and economic profits 23 93

Merger transaction costs - (23)

Merger integration costs (26) (41)

Amortisation of intangibles (25) (25)

Profit before tax 181 199

Note 1: includes 9 months of Partnership from the date of acquisitionNote: All figures subject to rounding

Favourable credit spread movements partly offset by changing economic assumptions. Significant falls in risk-free rates in 2016

Four quarters of amortisation (three in 2016)

Comment

Formation of HUB. 2016 included SII costs

Cost to achieve £52m in run rate savings

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2017 preliminary results

Our 7 year £230m T3 bond issue after the year end means we are no longer under-leveraged compared to peers

The 3.5% coupon confirms that our cost of capital is falling

2017 year end gearing ratio of 16%, pro forma 25% post T3 issuance

Fitch have confirmed our A/A+ credit rating with a Stable outlook

It follows from our inaugural credit rating announced in August 2017

We have a £200m undrawn revolving credit facility to provide further financial flexibility

13

Significantly improved capital structure and liquidity

Yields - Just Group Tier 2 & Tier 3, and PLACL Tier 2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

May-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17

Just 9.000% 2026,yield to maturity

PLACL 9.500% 2025,yield to call

Just 3.500%, 2025,yield to maturity

Source – NatWest Markets, Bloomberg, mid-price

Impact of credit rating

Mar-18

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2017 preliminary results 14

capital

David richardsonGroup deputy chief executive officer andManaging director UK corporate business

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2017 preliminary results

Our pro forma SII SCR coverage ratio at year end would have been 156% including our recent T3 bond issue

Economic capital coverage ratio of 238% was well above the prior year level even before the T3 bond issue,and would have been 257% on a pro forma basis

The Board remains comfortable with the quality and quantity of capital

The proposed final dividend of 2.55p is a 6% increase on the prior year. 2017 total dividends 3.72p, also up 6%

15

Capital and dividends

Just Group Solvency II1 and Economic Capital4 surplus (£m) & coverage (%)

Own Funds SCR

Tier 1: 75%

SII capital tiering (£m) – 31 Dec 2017 (Pro forma)

2,499

Tier 2: 16%

Tier 1 117%of SCR

1,606

Note 1: SII Own Funds and Solvency Capital Requirement are estimatedNote 2: Assuming TMTP recalculation, reported was 151%Note 3: Adjusted for £230m T3 issued in Q1 18 Note 4: Our assessment of the capital required to absorb 1 in 200 year risk events, and excludes certain elements of SII (e.g. risk margin, matching adjustment portfolio eligibility), and focuses on the economic value of assets such as LTMs

Tier 3: 9%Tier 2&3 39%of SCR

Surplus 893

666 663893

1,4361,644

1,874

31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31 Dec 17 Proforma £230m T3

31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31 Dec 17 Proforma £230m T3

S II EC

148% 141%156%

216%238%

257% 156%

23

3

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2017 preliminary results

666 663

893

230

YE 16 surpluswith TMTP

recalculation

2017 in-forcesurplus (1)

NB strain Dividend &interest

Cost overruns v2018e

Integrationcosts

Other YE 17 surpluswith TMTP

recalculation

Tier 3 debtissuance

February 2018

Pro forma YE 17surplus

16

Reconciliation of SII surplus1

Note 1: All figures net of tax. Solvency II surplus is estimatedNote 2: YE 16 surplus with assumed TMTP recalculation, YE 17 surplus and pro forma YE 2017 surplus are after actual TMTP recalculation at 31 December 2017Note 3: TMTP – Transitional Measures on Technical Provisions

1 January – 31 December 2017 (£m)

141%

76

128

(59)(22)

(105)

(21)

156%148% As expected, despite a

stable surplus after TMTP

recalculation, the SCR

ratio has fallen as we have

grown the balance sheet

Cost overruns and

integration costs reflect

the closing stages of the

integration

The 2017 figures are

shown after actual TMTP

recalculation at 31

December 2017

22

2

3 3

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2017 preliminary results 17

Solvency II sensitivities before management actions

893

(257)

(38)(66)

9

(174)(192)

Pro formasurplus

including T3issue

Interestrates

-50bps(no TMTP

recalc)

Interestrates

-50bps(with TMTP

recalc)

Creditspreads+100bps

LTM earlyredemption

+10%

Propertyvalues-10%

Mortality-5%

A resilient capital position (£m)

The February 2018 Tier 3 issuanceprovides an additional buffer

Our SII coverage ratio is resilient in theface of economic and operational shocks

We have no equity sensitivity andlimited credit spread sensitivity

Property and longevity are the mostsignificant sensitivities

156% 137% 150% 151% 157% 144% 143%

(19)% (6)% (5)% +1% (12)% (13)%

Coverage post stress

Impact of stress on coverage

Note 1: TMTP – Transitional Measures on Technical ProvisionsNote 2: Represents a 10% permanent fall below the assumed long term trend for property prices

2

1

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2017 preliminary results 18

A fast moving regulatory landscape

The PRA continues to refine Solvency II, and has various industry-wide consultation papers and supervisory statements in issue.

A reduction in risk margin is not the only possible change, with refinements to transitionals, matching adjustment and internal models more generally also under debate. Any of these areas could have a positive or negative effect on Just Group

The recent speech by David Rule (PRA Executive Director of Insurance Supervision) “An annuity is a very serious business” (26 April 2018) set out some thoughts on the risk margin and on the use of illiquid assets to match illiquid DB De-risking liabilities.

“We expect that a more appropriate level of risk margin…would lead to a better balance between longevity risk being retained and reinsured”

“illiquid assets can be a good match for annuities”

“The PRA recognizes the value of (LTMs) to consumers”

“The Bank of England supports the Matching Adjustment framework”

“the main risk is long term stagnation in UK house prices”

“My primary concern is that the Matching Adjustment is being calculated correctly”

“Compensation for the risks taken by the insurer, particularly providing a no negative equity guarantee, should not translate into a matching adjustment benefit”

The devil will be in the detail and we remain in regular dialogue with the PRA in respect of these areas

Many areas of focus

Recent speech by David Rule at the Westminster

& City Bulk Annuities conference (26/4/18)

– “An annuity is a very serious business”

Refinement of SII

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2017 preliminary results 19

outlook

RODNEY COOKGroup chief EXECUTIVE officer

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2017 preliminary results 20

Attractive growth markets

IP driven competitive advantage

Sustainable capital model

Attractive returns

A sustainable model in growing markets

Just – a sustainable model in growing markets

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2017 preliminary results 21

Conclusions and outlook

New business profits up

37%

£52m of run rate merger cost savings

Significant balance

sheet progress

Our model will continue

to deliver

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2017 preliminary results 22

Questions

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2017 preliminary results 23

Appendix

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2017 preliminary results

Note 1: Percentages relate to total portfolio, totals subject to roundingNote 2: AAA and unrated both include units in liquidity fundsNote 3: Based on IFRS PV01 methodology and does not include the impact of derivatives

24

Diversified and well-matched asset portfolio - conservative management of credit risk

38.5%

9.6%8.3%

18.6%

21.6%

0.8%2.6%

Loans securedby mortgages

AAA

AA and gilts

A

BBB

BB or below

Unrated

Asset portfolio by rating 1,2 Asset portfolio by sector 1,2

Asset and liability duration3: ~10 & 11 years respectively

o LTMs ~14 years

o Corporate credit ~ 7 ½ years (reduces migration risk)Single name

concentration limit

Sector concentration limit

Foreign currency hedged

Rating limit (relative to iBoxx)

Total asset portfolio -£18,287m

Lifetime mortgages

37%

Commercial mortgages

1%

Banks12%

Cash and equivalents

5%

Utilities10%

Financial - other4%

Communications4%

Consumer5%

Government7%

Insurance4%

Industrials4%

Energy2%

Auto manufacturers

2%Basic materials

1%

Other2%

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2017 preliminary results

25%

45%

25%

57.5%

75%

55%

75%

42.5%

DB -standard

DB -u/written

GIfL Care

Retained RGA Scor Hannover Re

25

Reinsurance on new business

Reinsurance is an integral part of Just’s capital-lightstrategy and a key enabler of its business plan

Reinsurance is used primarily to manage longevityrisk, both to reduce economic exposure andregulatory capital requirements

o full risk transfer taking the form of longevityswaps with collateral arrangements toreduce counterparty risk

We retain the investment risk

Deep pools of capacity as reinsurers seekdiversification benefits for their mortality books

Just’s reinsurance arrangements have beenoptimised for SII capital regime – any new treatiesentered into post SII implementation have beenbackdated to 1 January 2016

Our market leading IP enhances our reinsurancecredentials, and results in keener pricing

Go forward % use of longevity reinsurance per product line

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2017 preliminary results 26

Longevity trends – still improving, but more slowly

Average rate of mortality improvement, England & Wales ages 65-84, five year rolling periods to 2017, by gender

Source: Own calculations using data from ONS

Life expectancy at 65 for men rose by around six years over the period 1970 to 2010

The pace of change has moderated over the last seven years, with rates of mortality improvement peaking around 2005-10

Updated version of the CMI projection model was released in March 2018

We are tracking the emergence of mortality trends closely, particularly in relation to our own experience

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Males Females

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2017 preliminary results 27

PrognoSysTM : colon cancer excess mortality

Stage 1 Stage 4

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

0 5 10 15 20 25

Ha

zard

Years

External dataJust data

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

0 5 10 15 20 25

Ha

zard

Years

External dataJust data

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28

The Defined Benefit De-risking market

2017 preliminary results

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2017 preliminary results

Post

transaction

29

Continued innovation by Just in our chosen markets

New DB Choice proposition offering a guaranteed dual pricing structure with

o Choice

A lower medically underwritten price (minimises premium), or

standard underwritten price (minimises contact with members)

o Upfront certainty – price is not dependent on gathering medical data post transaction, or indeed the outcome of that medical data

o Value – trustees and sponsor can see the value of MU upfront, irrespective of appetite for MU. The sponsor can compare both prices with those of other insurers’ ahead of transaction

Will continue to offer existing suite of 4 pricing solutions on a case by case basis

Launch of DB Choice proposition – November 2017

Pre transaction

Top-slicing(pre transaction)

DB Choice

Standard underwriting

or

combined into

Medical Under-writing

<300 lives

1

2 3

4

10-300 lives

>300 lives

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2017 preliminary results 30

Defined Benefit – a £2.3 trillion opportunity

85% of schemes (by number) are closed to future accrual or new members LDI liabilities for UK pension schemes by type of mandate (£bn)

“The most attractive insurance market in Europe” (Barclays Capital, 1st August 2016)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Closed to new members Closed to future accrual

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Segregated Bespoke PooledSource – PPF Source: KPMG

Source – PPF, Hymans Robertson, LCP

37% of liabilities relate to pensions in payment

Deferred, 38%

Pensioner, 37%

Active, 25%

Historic and expected growth in DB de-risking transactions (£bn)

Source – PPF

5.2 4.47.5

13.2 12.3

10.2

9.0

12 15

700

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017P- LCP

2018P- LCP

2017-2031P

Buy in / Buy out Backbook acq. Projections

19.2

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2017 preliminary results 31

Our scale, and the addressable DB de-risking market

140

9%

19

55%

transactions since 20131,

a 3 year market share of

viaEBCs, leading to

generating

of Group Retirement Income sales over 2015 / 16 / 17

No members No SchemesTotal Buyout

Liabilities£bn

Split Total by liability type (£bn)

Pen Def Act

<100 1,994 22 10 10 2

100-999 2,458 201 78 105 18

1000-4999 759 391 153 195 43

5000-9999 180 287 121 132 34

>10000 197 1,376 557 626 193

TOTAL 5,588 2,277 919 1,068 290

£bn

Pensioners addressable now in full 241

Pensioners partially addressable in tranches 678

Deferreds addressable now or in future as pensioner tranches

135

Deferreds partially addressable in future as pensioner tranches

1,223

2,277Source – PPF, Just analysisNote 1: Pro forma, up to 31 December 2017

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32

Guaranteed Income for Life

2017 preliminary results

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2017 preliminary results

44% 40% 38%

2015 2016 2017

Just market share All other OMO

33

Open market option (OMO) beginning to recover

57%60% 59%

52%

41%

45%48%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

OMO % of Total

External GIfL market (£m) 2015 - 2017

Source: ABI and Just analysis

GIfL – a growing addressable market

1,728

1,917

Source - ABI

+11%

2018 – 6 insurers quoting in the Open Market

HUB is an enabler to grow the OMO via provisionof services to panels. Panels encourage maturingpension customers to shop around

o Panels established by Prudential, StandardLife, Royal London, and Phoenix

1,985 2,126 2,236

2,240 2,127 2,142

2015 2016 2017

H1 H2

GIfL market 2015 – 2017 (£m) – steady flow business

Source: ABI and Just analysis

4,225 4,2532,119

4,378 +11%

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2017 preliminary results 34

1.9

2.9

2.0

2016 Demographic Previous zeroincome DD

GAR DB transfer LifeCos 2020f

Potential OMO market size - 2020

£bn

Base case

Potential upside

£4.9bn

11%CAGR

Source of future GIfL growth

The OMO continues to gradually recover. Just sees no reason why the OMO should not reach 75-80%share of the overall GIfL market in time

o Just predicts a £2.9bn OMO market by 2020, driven by underlying GIfL market growth of 6%

Source – ABI, Just analysis

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2017 preliminary results

65 year old individual who is 5’ 7” tall, weighing

15st 13 lbs

Illustrative example Provider Annual incomeUplift if chose

Just

Just quote £2,754

Best standard underwritten quote £2,613 +5%

Worst standard underwritten quote £2,551 +8%

Just quote £2,964

Best standard underwritten quote £2,613 +13%

Worst standard underwritten quote£2,551 +16%

Just quote £3,252

Best standard underwritten quote £2,613 +24%

Worst standard underwritten quote£2,551 +27%

35

Real outcomes - our customer rates vs. standard providers

Note: Illustrative examples for £50,000 purchase price and GIfL paid monthly in advance, single life, no escalation, 5 year guarantee period, RH2 7RT post code. Quotes correct as of 1st March 2018

65 year old with diabetes type 2 diagnosed 4.5 years

ago, supplied HbA1c readings, takes 1

medication daily and 23 units of alcohol weekly

65 year old diagnosed with Parkinson’s Disease

diagnosed 9 years ago, hospitalised 1 year ago, high blood pressure, and

cholesterol with 1 medication daily for each

condition (3 total)

Mo

de

rate

Mil

dS

ev

ere

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36

LifetimeMortgages

2017 preliminary results

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2017 preliminary results 37

Growth drivers

Changing attitudes towards using housing equity

Peace of mind from No Negative Equity Guarantee (“NNEG”) feature in products

Favourable demographics

Increased housing wealth amongst retirees

Retirement Income shortfall

Move from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution pensions

Maturity of Interest Only mortgages

Increased advertising spend by providers and distributors

Increased distribution capacity

Source: Equity Release Council, Just internal analysis

772 920 1,0731,379 1,602

2,149

3,057

6,600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Lump sum mortgage sales New drawdown mortgages - initial advance Existing drawdown mortgages - further advance Forecast

£m

LTM market forecast (£m)

21% CAGR

A strong starting point in LTM

Just expects a £6.6bn market by 2021, a CAGR of 21% from the £3bn market in 2017

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2017 preliminary results 38

Lifetime mortgages – current portfolio

Total outstanding of £5.3bn1 is made up of over 65k

loans, average balance £82k

Average property-weighted LTV for new business is

c.27%, only 0.5% of loans with LTV greater than 75%

Average LTV across portfolio remains low at 29%

LTV breakdown by geography (£m / %) 31 December 2017

Self origination and funding to 3rd partiesLTV breakdown by customer age bands (£m) 31 December 2017

A low risk LTM portfolio

573 584325

150 83

584

894

736

390

187

0

2

9

14

12

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Below 70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85+

<30% 30% ~ 50% 50%+

664749 772

267

677

347 400330

456

169 204 232

37

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

500

1,000

Gre

ate

r L

on

do

n

Ou

ter

Me

tro

po

lita

n

Ou

ter

So

uth

Ea

st

Ea

st A

ng

lia

So

uth

We

st

Ea

st M

idla

nd

s

We

st M

idla

nd

s

Yo

rksh

ire

& H

um

be

r

No

rth

We

st

No

rth

Wa

les

Sco

tla

nd

No

rth

ern

Ire

lan

d

LT

V

Ou

tsta

nd

ing

Total outstanding (LHS) Average of LTV based on total outstanding (RHS)

Note 1: The difference between the total amount outstanding (principal and accruedinterest), and the balance sheet amount on slide 23 is due to the discount rate used to compute fair value.

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49C

ash

flo

ws

pe

r a

nn

um

m)

Year

Corporate Bonds & Gilts

Lifetime Mortgages

GIfL Liabilities

DB Liabilities

LTMs play a key role in our ALM process

Source – Just analysis

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2017 preliminary results 39

LTMs – The economics of NNEG, 30% initial LTV

Projected LTV by age and HPI (initial 30% LTV and 5.5% interest)

Impact of NNEG for different HPI growth rates (initial 30% LTV and 5.5% interest)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

70 75 80 85 90 95 100

0%HPI

1%

2%

3%

4%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

50

70

90

110

130

150

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%

Age at which NNEG materialises Yield if lives to exactly 100

100% LTV at 92 ½ years

femalesc.18 years

malesc.16 years

UK life expectancy from age 701

Note 1: Source, CMI 2017, published on 1/3/2018, based on life expectancy data at age 65

We guarantee that a borrower’s estate will never

have to repay more than the value of the house

NNEG allowance is sufficient if property prices

immediately fall by c. 20% and never grow again

House price inflation of 0% indefinitely would only

drive a 100% LTV as our typical 70 year old, initial

20% LTV customer approaches 100. At 30% initial

LTV, 100% LTV is reached at age 92½

No-Negative Equity Guarantee (NNEG)

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2017 preliminary results 40

Contacts and financial calendar

James Pearce

Director of Group Finance

Just Group plc

01737 827 245

[email protected]

Paul Kelly

Investor Relations Manager

Just Group plc

0207 444 8127

[email protected]

www.justgroupplc.co.uk

Calendar

Ex-dividend date – 3 May 2018

Dividend payment date – 25 May 2018

Q1 2018 business update and Annual General Meeting (“AGM”) – 17 May 2018

Expected announcement of 2018 interim results - 6 September 2018

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2017 preliminary results 41

Disclaimer

For the purposes of this notice, "document" means this document, any oral presentation, any question and answer session and any written or oral material discussed or distributed by Just

Group plc (“Just”) during the presentation. This document has been prepared and issued by and is the sole responsibility of Just.

This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Just or any related

company nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contractual commitment or investment decision in relation thereto

nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding any securities. This document, which speaks as of the date hereof only, is intended to present background information on Just, its business

and the industry in which it operates and is not intended to provide complete disclosure upon which an investment decision could be made. The merit and suitability of an investment in Just

should be independently evaluated and any person considering such an investment in Just is advised to obtain independent advice as to the legal, tax, accounting, financial, credit and other

related advice prior to making an investment.

This document and any materials distributed in connection with this document may include certain “forward-looking statements”, beliefs or opinions, including statements with respect to the

business, financial condition and results of operations of Just. These statements, which may contain the words “anticipate”, “believe”, “intend”, “estimate”, “expect” and words of similar

meaning, reflect the beliefs and expectations of the directors of Just and involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future.

No representation is made that any of these statements or forecasts will come to pass or that any forecast results will be achieved. There are a number of factors that could cause actual

results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements and forecasts. Past performance of Just cannot be relied on as a guide to future

performance. Forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this document and Just expressly disclaim any obligations or undertaking to release any update of, or revisions to, any

forward-looking statements in this document. No statement in this document is intended to be a profit forecast. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any undue reliance on such

forward-looking statements.

To the extent available, the industry, market and competitive position data contained in this document has come from official or third party sources. Third party industry publications, studies

and surveys generally state that the data contained therein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but that there is no guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of such

data. While Just believe that each of these publications, studies and surveys has been prepared by a reputable source, Just has not independently verified the data contained therein. In

addition, certain of the industry, market and competitive position data contained in this document come from the internal research and estimates of Just based on the knowledge and

experience of Just's management in the markets in which Just operates. While Just believe that such research and estimates are reasonable and reliable, they, and their underlying

methodology and assumptions, have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness and are subject to change without notice. Accordingly, undue reliance should

not be placed on any of the industry, market or competitive position data contained in this document. All projections, valuations and statistical analyses are provided to assist the recipient in

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results and to the extent that they are based on historical information, they should not be relied upon as an accurate prediction of future performance.

The document has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of Just, or its directors, officers, advisers or any

person acting on its behalf, as to, and no reliance should be placed for any purposes on, the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this document and

no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is assumed by any such persons

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inaccuracies which may become apparent, or to publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements made herein except where they would be required to do so under applicable

law, and any opinions expressed in them are subject to change without notice.

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