disaster risk reduction under current and changing climate conditions: important roles for the nmhss...
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Disaster Risk Reduction Under Current Disaster Risk Reduction Under Current and Changing Climate Conditions:and Changing Climate Conditions: Important Roles for the NMHSsImportant Roles for the NMHSs
Heather AuldAdaptation and Impacts Research DivisionEnvironment CanadaToronto, Canada
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0
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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Great Natural Disasters Worldwide 1950 – 2006Economic and insured losses
Year
US
$B
illi
on
s
Adaptation Deficit
Trend economic losses
Economic losses (2006 values)
Insured losses (2006 values)
Trend insured losses
Rising Disaster Losses GloballyRising Disaster Losses Globally
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Source: EM-DAT : The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. http://www.em-dat.net, UCL - Brussels, Belgium
Increasing trends have been most dramatic for weather-related eventsGlobal Trends in
Frequency of Major Natural Disasters
Biological
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Adaptation D
eficit
Number of Disasters in EMDAT, 1900 – 2005
Causes of Rising Natural DisastersCauses of Rising Natural Disasters
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Disasters and the Growing “Adaptation Deficit”Disasters and the Growing “Adaptation Deficit”
Factors driving the “adaptation deficit”:
Developed/developing countries have different drivers Increased wealth; More insured property; Greater populations Poverty; Development in higher risk locations Aging infrastructure; Sub-standard infrastructure Urbanization – dependence on infrastructure services
Nil or poor adaptation = Rising losses from hydro-meteorological hazards
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Unhealthy ecosystems can exacerbate some hazards to the point that “by degrading forests, engineering rivers, filling in wetlands, and destabilizing the climate, we are unraveling the strands of a complex ecological safety net.” J. Abramovitz (2001)
Vulnerability is also linked to theVulnerability is also linked to the Quality of the Environment Quality of the Environment
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Trends in number of counties with mud and rock slides in Western China (1800-2000)
Environmental Degradation and DisastersEnvironmental Degradation and Disasters
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Encouraging Signs… Encouraging Signs… Disaster Risk ManagementDisaster Risk Management
Because the costs of cleaning up and restoring communities after disasters is so high, some countries are closely looking as all aspects of disaster risk-management planning
NMHSs have important products and services to contribute to disaster risk management.
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Forecasts & Warnings; improved Warning systems
RISKRISKMANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT
Hazards, Climaticdesign values
Hazards: Emergency Planning
CRISESCRISESMANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT
Special forecasts; Risk guidance
Disaster/Emergency Management SystemsDisaster/Emergency Management Systems
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Mitigation/Prevention of Risks Hydrometeorological information for Design & Planning Learning from past failures and disasters
Preparedness Emergency and risk reduction planning Improving warning and emergency response systems
Proactive – Reducing Vulnerabilities: Forewarned is Forearmed
Before the Disaster:Before the Disaster: Risk ManagementRisk Management
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Emergency Response Timely and accurate weather warnings leading to action Monitoring and detection of hazards
Recovery Hazards risk guidance to rebuild communities
Reactive – Moving from Weather Prediction to Risk Prediction
During and After the Disaster: During and After the Disaster: Crises ManagementCrises Management
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Reduction/Mitigation of Risks Climatic and hydrological design values for codes & standards Atmospheric and hydrological Hazards information Monitoring; Detection of changing climate/weather extremes Forensic studies--learning from disasters
Emergency Preparedness Hazards information for emergency and risk reduction planning Science to identify the most significant events, impacts Improved weather warning criteria; sensitive to responders Vigilance; Warnings linked to “Impacts Thresholds”
Proactive – Reducing Vulnerabilities: Forewarned is forearmed
BeforeBefore the Disaster: the Disaster: Risk ManagementRisk Management
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Ideally, infrastructure is designed for selected return period climate extremes …
Warnings are a last line of defense… after other prevention solutions, such as engineering design practices, are applied to reduce the risk of an event below an acceptable level.
Proactive Design: Extremes and Proactive Design: Extremes and Infrastructure DesignInfrastructure Design
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Design Hourly Wind SpeedsDesign Hourly Wind Speeds (km/hr)(km/hr)
National Building Code of Canada and various CSA standards
50 year return period Design Wind Speeds (km/hr)50 year return period Design Wind Speeds (km/hr)
Proactive: Climatic Design InformationClimatic Design Information
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“small increases in weather and climate extremes have the potential to bring large increases in damages to existing infrastructure” … beyond critical thresholds
Climate Change could significantly impact infrastructure, depending on robustness of existing climatic design values
Disasters, Warnings and Impacts Thresholds…Disasters, Warnings and Impacts Thresholds…Small Increases = Escalating Damages above Critical ThresholdsSmall Increases = Escalating Damages above Critical Thresholds
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Some structure are more vulnerable than others:
The quality of construction and maintenance of structures will strongly influence community vulnerability to hazards
Quality of Structures and Weather Impacts ThresholdsQuality of Structures and Weather Impacts Thresholds
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Trends in Windstorm DisastersTrends in Windstorm Disasters
EM-DAT International Database – Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)
Engineering codes and standards need updated climatic design values
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Projections of changes in average Canadian extreme 24-hour rainfall events that can be expected to recur once every 10, 20, 40, or 80 years.
GCM Projected Changes in 24-hour GCM Projected Changes in 24-hour Return Period RainfallsReturn Period Rainfalls
10 20 40 80
Recurrence time (years)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100S
ize
of E
vent
(m
m)
1985
2050
2090
2090
2050
1985~ 75 mm 1985
2050
2090
40 year return period
80 year return period
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Risk planning requires understanding of frequencies of hydrometeorological events and their expected changes
(Hurricane Katrina damages)
Although natural disasters are not always predictable, they are most often generally foreseeable …
Proactive Emergency Response PlanningProactive Emergency Response Planning
Planning for risks…
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This website is under continuous development.Please visit us again, often.
Important Notices and Disclaimers
What is it? What data is in it? How can I use it? Look for many places Look for a place by name
This website presents background material and map data for atmospheric hazards in Ontario. It has been created by the Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, in cooperation with Emergency Management Ontario, to assist municipalities in conducting their hazard identification and risk assessments as required by Ontario's Emergency Management Act.
www.hazards.ca
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Ontario’s Emergency Management Act (Bill 148)
Part of assessment involves assessment of risks to weather hazards:
Fog Lightning Heavy Rain Heavy Snow Hurricanes Wind Storms Extreme Heat/Cold Ice Storms Drought Tornadoes
Extreme Air Quality Events
Weather Hazard Risk AssessmentWeather Hazard Risk Assessment
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Hazard and Impact Risk Assessment (HIRA)Hazard and Impact Risk Assessment (HIRA)
Source: EMO, 2003
Community Risk Assessment GridCommunity Risk Assessment Grid
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Severe Thunderstorms: HailSevere Thunderstorms: Hail
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Extreme Snowfall Days/Year Exceeding 25cm (1971-2000)
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Observed Tornadoes in Southern Ontario Observed Tornadoes in Southern Ontario 1981-20031981-2003
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Parameters:
Moderate-High Hail FrequenciesAND
Moderate-High Tornado Frequencies
Hail Frequency in Ontario between 0.50 and 2.00 # Days/Year andTornado Frequency in Ontario between 0.80 and 2.40 # Events/Year
Atmospheric Hazards - Selection ResultsMap: .Ontario South Boreal (2300) Selected 586 places on this map
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Ozone & Hot Days
Ontario MOE, 2004
Health issues: Health issues: Heat Waves and Air QualityHeat Waves and Air Quality
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Projected Number of “Extreme Heat Alert” Daysfrom the Hottest Weather Type
2050s, 2080s
2.4
0.9
2.41.7
5.2
3.9
7.47.0
7.9
5.5
9.5
10.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Obs. 2050s 2080s Obs. 2050s 2080s Obs. 2050s 2080s Obs. 2050s 2080s
Montreal Ottawa Toronto Windsor
Nu
mb
er o
f D
ays
ADAPTATION: Heat Alert and Response systems help protect vulnerable populations
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Emergency Response (Special) Forecast support for emergency response Consideration of cumulative and sequential events Vigilance or Tiered Warning systems – link to impacts Timely and accurate weather warnings; dissemination Warnings that imply actions
Recovery Forecast support Hazards risk guidance to rebuild communities
Reactive – During and After the Disaster Moving from Weather Prediction to Risk Prediction Warnings Seek Actions
During and After the Disaster: During and After the Disaster: Crises Crises ManagementManagement
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1. failure of forecasting 2. ignorance of prevailing vulnerability 3. failure to communicate threat accurately or in
sufficient time4. failure by the recipients to understand or
believe the warning or to take suitable action.
Failures of Early Warning Failures of Early Warning Programs Programs
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Planning Effective Early Warning SystemsPlanning Effective Early Warning Systems
The success of a Warning is measured by what actions people take.
• Warnings need terminology relevant to the decision-maker and messages that suggest appropriate actions.
• People are more likely to heed and act upon warnings when they have been educated about their risks and have prepared warning-reaction plans.
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Warnings and Clear CommunicationsWarnings and Clear Communications
Warnings need to have a meaning that is shared between those who issue the forecasts and the decision-makers that they are intended to inform. This requires an appreciation of local and indigenous knowledge (e.g. Bangladesh Warning System).
Some NMHS are investing in research to better translate the intensity of forecast meteorological parameters into impacts and risk levels for communities.
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Work is needed to identify the most dangerous impacts, the contribution of cumulative and sequential events to risks and thresholds for failures/disaster.
Information on thresholds for infrastructure failure could significantly contribute to weather and flood warning criteria… environmental prediction
Warning Thresholds and Vigilance:Warning Thresholds and Vigilance: Often Linked to Infrastructure Failure ThresholdsOften Linked to Infrastructure Failure Thresholds
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Vigilance… Reducing the Impacts of HazardsVigilance… Reducing the Impacts of Hazards
“meteorological vigilance” (e.g. weather watch map systems).
Colour-coded map, with each region assigned a colour according to the seriousness of the predicted risk (vulnerability) Green, yellowyellow, orange, red,
Highlights the most dangerous events…. beginning to integrate vulnerability analysis.
China (CMA): colour coded warnings for 11 extreme weather conditions – blue, yellowyellow, orange, red, black
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Cumulative + Sequential Hazards = Growing RiskCumulative + Sequential Hazards = Growing Risk
Warning systems need to include suddenevents and “creeping” and combination hazards…
Sequential or cumulative events impact vulnerability and need to be considered in monitoring and Warnings.
e.g. antecedent rainfall and increasing risks from storm rainfall
e.g. drought
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The Special Needs ofThe Special Needs ofEmergency Responders…Emergency Responders…
Lead times are very important … for the activation of emergency response plans and to identify the most significant risks.
e.g. UK Met Office Early Alerts
Escalating messages for the public
Special needs, advance warnings for emergency responders (includes training)?
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RECOVERY from the DISASTER:RECOVERY from the DISASTER: REBUILD and REDUCE VULNERABILITIESREBUILD and REDUCE VULNERABILITIES
Forecast and Warning support, including additional information to protect vulnerable populations
Hazards risk guidance for rebuilding communities
Forensics studies (science) -in partnership with others
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Learning from Failures… Learning from Failures… Value of Forensic StudiesValue of Forensic Studies
critical thresholds for disasters and infrastructure failure
improvements to emergency response plans
improved and new products, services
“forensic investigations” of high impact events yield valuable insights (continuous improvement) into:
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Climate Change and Disaster ManagementClimate Change and Disaster Management
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Climate Change and DisastersClimate Change and Disasters
The global cost of natural disasters may exceed $300 billion annually by the year 2050 if the likely impact of climate change is not countered with aggressive disaster reduction measures…
Disaster risk reduction…a “no regrets” approach that reduces vulnerability to near-term hazards today will become an even more effective strategy for reducing future risks.
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UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
The Future… Disaster ManagementThe Future… Disaster Management
The aim of the ISDR is to mobilize governments, UN agencies, regional bodies, the private sector and civil society to unite efforts in building resilient societies by developing a culture of prevention and preparedness.
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)
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WMO and Disaster ManagementWMO and Disaster Management
Target: Half the loss of life associated with natural disasters (hydro-meteorological) over the next 15 years
Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme
WMO and national meteorological/hydrological services have the capability to develop and deliver critical products and services to the disaster risk management decision process.
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Successful Disaster Management:Successful Disaster Management:Risk and Crises ManagementRisk and Crises Management
Risk Management: Proactive• Climatic & hydrological design information• Hazards for emergency management planning• Development of vigilance warning systems
Crises Management: Reactive• Warnings & emergency response • Environmental prediction• Hazards and risk information to rebuild
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T h a n k Y o uT h a n k Y o u