dima cook heritage risk oaa presentation assessment and mitigatio… · 4/26/2014 1 risk assessment...
TRANSCRIPT
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Risk assessment and mitigation in Heritage Projects
Dima Cook
OAA Conference Montreal 2014
Outline1. What is risk2. Identifying, Classifying, Assessing, Planning, Monitoring3. Risk in a Heritage Context
1. Project organizational structure2. Research3. Surveys4. Investigations and materials testing5. Mock‐ups6. Material procurement and sourcing 7. Pre‐qualifications and contracting 8. Protection and monitoring measures9. Training 10. Scheduling
4. Conclusion
Learning Objectives
1. To identify potential risks on heritage projects
2. To analyze and categorize these risks
3. To evaluation the potential mitigation measures
4. To track the identified risks and mitigations measures as the project evolves
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Introduction
http://accommodationsbc.com/festivals/haunted‐houses/
Introduction
Introduction
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Introduction
What is Risk
Risk = Probability of an event * Impact on objectives
Objectives
Time
Money
Quality
Scope
QualityMoney
ScopeTime
What is Risk
Risk Management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities.
Wikipedia
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Identifying
[…] as we know, there are known knowns; there are things that we know that we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.
Donald Rumsfeld
Classifying Risk
Types – regulation, constraints (workers, supplies), practices, permits, approvals…
Time, Cost, Quality, Scope
Assessing Risk
Probability vs. Impact
Known risks – risk response – action to reduce likelihood of occurrence or the gravity of the impact.
Unknown risks –not identified – cannot be managed proactively
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Assessing Risk
Risk appetite – amount of uncertainty that an organization can accept
Risk tolerance – amount of impact the organization can accept
Risk reserve – amounts put side to address the risk
Planning for Risk
Low Impact High Impact
Low Probability Accept Transfer
High Probability Mitigate Avoid
Each require different levels of Monitoring and Management.
Planning for Risk
Cool Risk – Michael Mittag
Transferring Risk
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Planning for Risk
quviant.com
Mitigating Risk
Monitoring Risk
Validation of the assumptions and/or data were used to evaluate risks:
‐ Availability of trades & materials
‐ Other projects that occur at the same time
‐ Market pricing
‐ Legislative changes
Heritage Projects
Additional challenges:
– Different objectives
– Long view – Stewardship
– Oversight – Approvals and permits
– Tolerance for risk
– Existing Conditions
– High profile, additional scrutiny
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Heritage Projects
Parks Canada’s
Standards and Guidelines for the Conservation of Heritage Places in Canada
Puts the building at the table as a stakeholder
Heritage Projects
Cost Scope creep, sole sourcing, rare and specialized trades, more upfront costs
Schedule Unforeseen conditions, investigations and testing
Quality Heritage projects generally have little tolerance for Quality risk
Scope Extent and type of interventions, scope definition
Heritage Projects
Step 1: Understanding
1. Research
2. Surveys
3. Investigations
4. Materials Testing
5. Mock‐ups
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Heritage Projects
Step 2: Planning
1. Tendering Structure
1. Pre‐qualifications
2. Trade availability
2. Procurement and Sourcing
Step 3: Implementation and Monitoring
1. Training
2. Protection
3. Scheduling
Project organizational structure
Common objectives
Communications
Contacting Options
‐ Unit pricing
‐ Pre‐purchasing
‐ Pre‐qualifications of GC and subtrades
Research
Research is Creating new Knowledge
‐ Neil Armstrong
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Research
Historic Structures Report
– History of the building in context
– Heritage Values as expressed by the Character‐defining Elements
– Building Condition Assessment, including previous repairs and maintenance
Understanding of the building to develop the appropriate interventions
Research Original Specifications
Research Original Drawings
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Research Original Drawings
Research Historic Photographs
Research Historic Photographs
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Research Historic Photographs
Research Historic Photographs
Detroit Train Station, New
York Tim
es
Research Historic Photographs
Norm
an M
cGrath, N
ew York<s Pennsylvania Stations
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Research Catalogues & Pattern Books
Fenestra Steel Window Catalogue
Research Catalogues & Pattern Books
Fenestra Steel Window Catalogue
Research Past Maintenance and Changes
Understanding alterations to the building:
‐ Changes to the interiors – what traces may be left behind, and what is gone
‐ Repointing and cleaning
‐ Quality of maintenance
‐ Differed maintenance
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Research Other sources
Quick Silver (1976)
Investigations
Surveys and Condition Assessment
Assessment in situ
– Exploratory openings
– Assembly testing
Testing of components
– Existing materials – stone, mortars, metals, wood
– Proposed materials (sourcing)
Evaluation of proposed assemblies
– Mock‐ups
Investigations Surveys
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Investigations Exploratory Openings
Investigations Exploratory Openings
Investigations Exploratory Openings
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Investigations Exploratory Openings
Investigations Assembly Testing
Investigations Assembly Testing
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Investigations Assembly Testing
Investigations Assembly Testing
Investigations Assembly Testing
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Investigations Material Testing
Why testing is important
1. Determines what the materials are and how they behave.
2. Provides information to be able to find and compare it to available materials.
3. Close matches are needed so that the materials continue to work and age in a compatible manner.
Investigations Mortar Testing
Testing include porosity, initial rate of absorption, moisture vapour transmission rates, effects of the introduction of pigment, curing conditions, aging and frost durability. The new mortars will also need to be matched to the original in colour and aggregate grading.
In Ontario – there is also often a lead in mortar
Investigations Mortar Testing
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Investigations Mortar Testing
Investigations Mortar Testing
Investigations Mortar Testing
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Investigations Masonry Testing
Investigations Other Testing
Paint – type and colours, decorative patterns, glazes – paint sampling and paint windows
Metal – alloys and finishes (patinas, plating)
Wood – species, cut, finish
Terrazzo – composition of matrix, aggregate size and type
Plaster – Composition, moulding, substrate
Mock‐ups Preconstruction
Evaluate the most appropriate interventions for the conservation of the building materials and assemblies
– Products
– Procedures and methodology
This report, by its very length, defends itself against the risk of being read.
Winston Churchill
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Mock‐ups Cleaning Products
Mock‐ups Cleaning Products
Mock‐ups Cleaning Products
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Mock‐ups Cleaning Products
Mock‐ups Cleaning Products
Material procurement | Sourcing
Risk to cost – sole sourcing, narrow range requiring a narrower range
Risk to quality – material needs to match existing
Risk to schedule – long lead times that need to be accounted for
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Sourcing
Original quarries no longer in operation, or the stones being quarried there are of different quality.
Sourcing
Sourcing
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Procurement
Pre‐purchase blocks to ensure they are compatible and of the same quality – multi‐year project, arrange for storage
Given that many quarries are opened seasonally, this sourcing and selection exercise may have to be completed well in advance of construction.
Seasoning of blocks – evaporation of trapped moisture
Procurement
Procurement
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Procurement
Procurement
Report on the building and ornamental stones of Canada, vol.3
Procurement
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Procurement
Contracting options
Pre‐qualifications of GC and trades:
– Starting early in the process – time consuming
–Rarity of qualified trades – understanding of traditional building techniques
–Additional constraint if unionized labour is required
Contingencies and allowances
Training
Site orientation:
‐ Safety training
‐ Heritage awareness training:‐ What is the heritage fabric
‐ Value of original material
‐ What to do when heritage materials are discovered
‐ Matching trade and material
‐ Protection of existing fabric and other trade’s work
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Construction Mock‐ups
To validate:
‐ Skill of individual tradesmen
‐ Materials
‐ Methodology
‐ Sequence of work
‐ Site conditions during construction
Protection | Monitoring measures
An once of prevention….
The building is often at greatest risk during the construction project:
– Damage from demolition work
– Damage for construction work
– Risk of fire
– Loss of material
– Theft
– Inappropriate repairs or work
Protection | Monitoring measures
Protection of existing fabric – removal, on‐site protection
Monitoring of work – vibration monitors, temperature and humidity sensors, presence on site while critical work is being done
Monitoring of trades ‐ appropriate and qualified trade doing the work
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SchedulingSequence of work
Duration of work
Availability of qualified trades
Availability of materials
Weather – winter conditions
Stakeholder and user requirements – occupied building
Risk Monitoring
Need to revalidate the decisions made:
‐ Changes to legislation, permitting, codes
‐ Changes to supply of material
‐ New products or discontinued products
‐ Changes to budget, schedule, scope
‐ Changes to staff, trades
Conclusion
Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes.
OSCAR WILDE, Lady Windermere's Fan