Development of the MOHID consortium

Presentation of 4 PhD thesis works

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•High resolution tridimensional hydrodynamical model of the Portuguese coast (Guillaume Riflet)

•Operational modelling in Estuaries (Angela Canas)

•Bidirectional coupling of atmospheric and oceanic regional circulation models (Ana Rosa Trancoso)

•Climate change, fisheries pressure and coastal upwelling ecosystems (Ricardo Lemos)

Thesis menu

Guillaume

Development of a high resolution Development of a high resolution hydrodynamical 3D model of the hydrodynamical 3D model of the Portuguese coast with MOHID.Portuguese coast with MOHID.

Coupling the model to a large scale Atlantic Coupling the model to a large scale Atlantic ocean model (ex: HYCOM, MERCATOR, ocean model (ex: HYCOM, MERCATOR, MOHID). MOHID). Nested modelsNested models

Use of remote-detection surface data Use of remote-detection surface data (buoys and satellite temperature surface (buoys and satellite temperature surface and altimetry data) to validate the model’s and altimetry data) to validate the model’s results.results.

Thesis main goals

Guillaume 1. Developping the hydrodynamical 3D model

• 3 nested levels: Atlantic scale, regional scale and local scale.

• Implementation and testing of several vertical discretization schemes (sigma, cartesian, hybrid).

• Definition of initial condition from objective analysis of available datasets.

• Creation of coherent and stable climatologic fields (ex:Levitus?).

• Quantification of the pressure gradient error in the oceanic circulation.

• Implementation and testing of several vertical turbulence parameterizations (such as GOTM).

• Study for the pertinence and implementation of a wave-induced vertical mixing scheme.

• Fiddling with the bathymetry from ETOPO, fiddling with the tide components, fiddling with the boundary conditions.

• Do it and make it work!

Guillaume2. Downscaling physics from large scale models to regional models

• Development and/or Implementation of software code for format integration to import data delivered by large scale models.

• Testing nesting techniques between the large scale and local hydrodynamic properties (ex: adaptive open boundaries, flow relaxation scheme, radiation schemes, free surface elevation).

• Identification of sources for imposing the physical properties in the open boundary (ex: MW, Gulf of Cádiz, Azores Current, Wind).

Guillaume3. Develop the Ocean-Atmosphere coupling with high resolution atmospheric forcing

• Test the Water-Air interface module of the model

• Use of established methodologies for imposing atmospheric fluxes in the coastal model

• Couple the model to an ocean-atmosphere modelling system fed by high-resolution observations

Guillaume 4. Use of experimental data to validate the model’s results

• Adjust model parameters and coefficients to improve agreement between observed data and the model’s results.

• What is the best methodology to validate the model from satellite-data? How reliable this is?

Guillaume Work done so far

Mohid Hydrodynamic’s technical manualMohid Hydrodynamic’s technical manual::Physics (Hydrodynamic’s equations, Tracer Physics (Hydrodynamic’s equations, Tracer equations, Turbulent mixing)equations, Turbulent mixing)Numerical DiscretizationNumerical DiscretizationTest cases (1D vertical model, Freshwater cylinder, Test cases (1D vertical model, Freshwater cylinder, Rossby solitary wave, Isolated Seamount ...)Rossby solitary wave, Isolated Seamount ...)Application cases: Ria de Vigo, Tagus operational Application cases: Ria de Vigo, Tagus operational model, circulation off the portuguese coast, internal model, circulation off the portuguese coast, internal waves in submarine canyons (Nazaré)waves in submarine canyons (Nazaré)

ÂngelaP.h.D work: Operational Modelling in estuariesOutline

• Objective: Improve the results of existing prediction system for Tagus Estuary;

• Methodology:– State of the art: Operational models, Data

assimilation;– Study of existing system and new approaches

(boundaries, advection, turbulence): validation and error quantification;

– Implementation of data assimilation module: Kalman Filter techniques, Optimal Interpolation;

– Cost-benefit assessment of improvement options facing operational framework.

ÂngelaP.h.D work: Operational Modelling in estuariesWork developed so far

Data

Assim

ilation

Tagus E

stuary P

rediction System

1D linear water level model: Kalman Filter

1D hydrodynamic model (shallow water equations): EnKF

0ck x

level

timespace

New configurations Bathymetry: Level 2 (Tagus Estuary) Boundary conditions: Level 1 (Portuguese Coast) Level 0 (North Atlantic)

Water level measurements (tide gauges) - 1972

Validation

Future... measurements for model validation and data assimilation

Rosa Thesis objectives

• Bidirectional coupling of the mesoscale atmospherical model MM5 and of the oceanographical model MOHID.

• Identification of the oceanic-atmosphere interaction’s effects:

– Compare with the results of the independent models

– Quantifiy the required resolution degree• Influence of the coupling in the wind

waves and in the oceanic mixed layer.• Improve the Upwelling forecasts in the

portuguese coast.• Improve rainfall forecasts.

Rosa MM5 Operacional

• An operational system of meteorological forecasting for the Iberian peninsula, with MM5: http://meteo.ist.utl.pt

x = 81 km

x = 27 kmx = 9 km

Rosa WaveWatch III

• Wind waves• Changes in the superficial

oceanic layer• Runs operationally with ARPS

model’s data (MeteoGalicia)

• http://maretec.mohid.com/ww3

RosaModelos Envolvidos

GlobalForecastSystem

WaveWatchIII

Ocean:

Now:Future:

Atmosphere : MM5 ARPS

Mass, momentum and energy flux

Heat and mass Heat and mass flux;flux;SSTSST

Superficial Superficial rugosityrugosity

Surface currentsSurface currents

Applied Applied shear shear stressstress

Shear Stress Shear Stress and superficial and superficial

rugosityrugosity

Radiation;Radiation;Heat and mass Heat and mass fluxflux

Ricardo Lemos Climate Change, Fisheries Pressure and Upwelling Ecosystems

Objectives:

•Identify the causes for the evolution of the Portuguese coastal upwelling system in the 20th century

•Assess the responses of primary productivity (seasonality, annual production, spatial distribution, etc) to the observed changes in upwelling

•Estimate the impacts of changes in primary productivity on the food web

•Estimate, in a virtual, stable ocean, the impacts of fisheries on the structure of Portuguese coastal ecosystems

•Combine the two impact pathways into a single model

H. sapiens

Fisheries Resources

Phytoplancton

Climate Change

Top down

Bottom up

Ricardo Lemos

Evolution of annual mean ocean temperature (ºC) in region C2, at different standard depths. Linear trend estimates (x0.01ºC/yr) are displayed on the right.

The evolution of the upwelling regime off west Portugal, 1941-2000

Climate Change, Fisheries Pressure and Upwelling Ecosystems

Porto

Cape Carvoeiro

Lisbon

Evolution of the April-September v-wind component at Porto, Cape Carvoeiro and Lisbon (9 yr running-means and long-term

trend)

Ricardo Lemos Work underway

Time 1 Time 2 Time 3

Data Spatial Process Noise

S(., 1) S(., 2) S(., 3)

= +

yi S(xi, 2) i= +

Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models