development of a policy framework for integrated ... · evs and renewable electricity ......
TRANSCRIPT
Development of a policy framework for integrated implementation of electric vehicles
and renewable electricity supplyand renewable electricity supply
RETRANS-project on Renewable Energy in The Transpor t Sector
website: http://www.iea-retd.org/
e-mail: [email protected]
Connecting electric vehicles to renewable energy
policytechnology
EVs and renewable electricity
• Renewables are not dependent on EVs for their full deployment• But EVs may help to increase uptake of renewable energy
• EVs do need renewables to realise their full benefit:• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions• Reduce dependence on fossil fuels
• Synergies may improve the business case for electric vehicles and for renewable electricity
• Coordinated policy and system integration are required for harvesting these synergies
Introduction to RETRANS project
Renewable Energy in the transport Sector RETRANS
Project scope:
• The scope of the project is the deployment of:• renewable energy• sustainable alternative road transport technologies
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• sustainable alternative road transport technologiesto meet the challenges of:
• reducing GHG emissions • reducing the dependence on imported oil
• The focus of the project is on renewable electricity for: • plug-in hybrids (PHEV) • electric-only vehicles (EV)
Kpe5
Slide 5
Kpe5 And electricityKristian Petrick, 25/01/2010
Emissions from transport may take up the total GHG emission allowance in 2050
60%
80%
100%
120%
em
issi
ons
(199
0 =
100%
)
reduction 2.5 °C
3 °CEU-27 All sectors
60%
80%
100%
120%
em
issi
ons
(199
0 =
100%
)
reduction 2.5 °C
3 °CEU-27 All sectors
0%
20%
40%
60%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EU
-27
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(199
0 =
100%
)
80 - 90%
reduction60 - 80%
2 °C
2.5 °C
EU-27 Transport
Annual growth rate: 1.4% p.a.avg. 2000 - 2005
0%
20%
40%
60%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EU
-27
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(199
0 =
100%
)
80 - 90%
reduction60 - 80%
2 °C
2.5 °C
EU-27 Transport
Annual growth rate: 1.4% p.a.avg. 2000 - 2005
(graph adapted from [EEA 2009])
We are running out of cheap oil
(graph from [IEA 2008a])
Routes for using renewable energyin road transportprimary energy source energy carrier application
fossilpetrol / diesel /
LPG
fossil + CO 2-storage methane
conventional and
methane
biomass liquid biofuelsconventional and hybrid vehicles
sun/wind/water/geo hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
nuclear electricitybattery-electric
vehicles
hydrogen
electricity
Project focus• The main ingredients to realise transition to sustainable mobility
system are:• reducing the energy demand of vehicles• shifting towards less carbon-intensive and carbon-neutral,
renewable energy carriers• shifting towards more energy-efficient or less carbon-intensive
modes of transport• curbing the growth of transport demand
• Vehicles with advanced combustion engines running
on biofuels.
• Battery-electric vehicles using renewable electricity (RES-E)
• Plug-in hybrid vehicles running on renewable electricity in
combination with other fuels
• Fuel cell vehicles using hydrogen produced from
renewable sources
Co-evolution of transport and energy systems
• Simultaneous and correlated increase in • vehicle efficiency / use of alternative propulsion systems &
energy carriers• uptake of renewables in energy supply
• Growth in share of EVs needs to be accompanied by increased share of renewables in electricity consumed by EVsshare of renewables in electricity consumed by EVs
• Same is true for:• efficient conventional vehicles and biofuels• fuel cell vehicles running on hydrogen
• Co-evolution is facilitated by technical or economic synergies• Smart grids & EV charging infrastructure• Uptake of excess RES-E by EVs• Grid services provided by EVs
Business case of EVs on renewable electricity• ∆_vehicle costs
• costs of battery and electric machines• cost evolution of conventional vehicles i.r.t. CO2 legislation• taxes, fiscal incentives, subsidies
• ∆_energy costs• energy consumption of EV and conventional vehicles • price of petrol / diesel• price of petrol / diesel• price of (renewable) electricity• cost of charging infrastructure
• ∆_other costs• e.g. maintenance
• value of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services
• mileage
• costs of providing service with EVs
• costs of alternative solutions• benefits of service,
determined by synergies at system level
Summary of results
Vehicle Technologies
State of the art for biofuels and fuel cell vehicles
1st generation biofuels:• Can partly be used in current vehicles• Generally high cost (excluding Brazilian Sugar cane Ethanol)• Sustainability / land use / biodiversity issues• Competition with the food chain• Moderate / no WTW CO2 emission reductions
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2nd generation biofuels :• Needs development for large scale production• Less sustainability issues• Larger WTW CO2 emission reductions
Fuel cell vehicles :• Cost issues (high cost for fuel cell and H2-storage)• No perspective for lower Well To Wheel CO2 than EVs• Entirely new infrastructure required
State of the art for Electrical Vehicles
• Battery technology now allows EVs to have electric driving ranges of > 200 km
• Development of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) offers new market perspectives
• Purpose built vehicles close to the market (2013-2015 timeframe)• Plug standardisation achieved in Europe (proposal made May ’09)
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• Plug standardisation achieved in Europe (proposal made May ’09)• Pilot projects are being started in many cities• GHG reductions of 20 – 99% are possible
• Depends on source of electricity• Using current EU grid mix: 20-30% lower CO2 than
conventional
• Electric vehicles possible first candidate for harv esting synergy with increased use of renewables
State of the art for Electrical Vehicles
• Alternatives for normal / slow charging• fast charging• battery swapping
• Electric vehicles as buffer to match supply pattern of renewable electricity from wind and solar to the demand pattern
• preferential charging of RES-E for vehicle propulsion
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• preferential charging of RES-E for vehicle propulsion• with or without smart grid
• supplying electricity back to the grid• currently not allowed by vehicle manufacturers• battery lifetime issues• expensive at present battery costs
Expected development of market for electric vehicles
Market share
R&D
Early markets
Commercialisation
Demonstr ation
• In coming years first market will be small and large demonstration sites and first commercial niches
• Until 2020 mainly niches (commercial applications) and some early adopters (consumers) in areas with strong EV stimulation measures
• Expansion / commercialisation phase towards main markets by 2020
Time
R&D
Challenges & uncertainties with respect to electric vehicles
Technical challenges regarding the grid:
Technical issues- Design of smart grid, incl. meting
and billing
Non-technical issues
Challenges regarding vehicles:
Technical issuesHigh initial costs of battery-electric
vehicles, combined with uncertainties associated with battery lifetime.
- Limited driving range combined Non-technical issues- Requirements for a new charging
infrastructure.- Standardisation of charging
infrastructure, plugs and grid-vehicle communication
- Limited driving range combined with long recharging time.
Non-technical issues- Residual value of (PH)EVs
Challenges & uncertainties with respect to electric vehicles
Uncertainties regarding the viability of electric a nd plug-in hybrid vehicles:
Technical issues- Battery lifetime, to be proven in large scale field trials.- Battery safety issues.- Impact of fast charging on battery lifetime and energy efficiency.- Impact on battery lifetime of using electric vehicle batteries for vehicle-- Impact on battery lifetime of using electric vehicle batteries for vehicle-
to-grid services.- Development of battery costs.- Material availability issues.
Non-technical issues- Development of future vehicle and energy tax regimes. How will these
deal with battery costs and possible taxes on electricity?
Summary of results
Grid Aspects
Grid impact of increased RES-E
The often variable nature of RES-E (wind, solar) can cause a mismatch between supply and demand when a high share of renewable energy is to be implemented
Example in Denmark:
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production > demand
demand > productionStorage / backup needed
Example in Denmark:wind energy providing 50% of all electricity
Source: EcoGrid 2007
EV’s require smart grids• EV are a additional load (red) that is variable• The point in time when EV are charging, can be postponed to reduce the
impacts on the grid
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Backup capacity or peak shaving is needed
Without charging regulation
With chargingregulation
Regulation strategies can reduce impacts on the grid and makea high penetration rate of electric vehicles possible!
Co-evolution of EVs and RE electricity (RES-E)
Two main options to use EVs as enablers for increas ed RES-E
Charging regulation
Grid related services(V2G)
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Essential requirements for the electric vehicles and the grid have to be fulfilled to provided V2G services!
• Storage of Renewable Energies• Arbitrage at energy exchange
• maximum revenue depends on battery size
• Offering of reserve power• maximum revenue depends on connection power• securing a minimum availability of the vehicles
Revenues for EVs from grid related services
Frequency -Frequency -response reserve
� Technically possible
� High revenue
� Currently outlawed
Spinning reserve Non-spinning reserve
� Possibility depending on the laws of each country
� Revenue depends on the demand and energy rate
� Up to 250 €/a
� High battery costs because of the common use
� 100 €/a to 300 €/a
� Usage most likely
Value added for V2G depends on battery pack cost per cycle and can be negative!
Essential requirements for co-evolution of the grid, RES-E and EVs
Basis for the development of a political roadmap for a high integration of renewable and a high penetration of EVs
24• 4 aspects to be considered• From the middle, each layer is a condition for the next
Integration of renewable energy sources
• A small penetration of renewable energy sources can be handle with the conventional grid.
Gro
wth
in
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• Smart Meter and Smart Grids enable the grid to provide more services to support RES.
• Demand side management and spinning can help to secure the
Demand
side
manage-
ment
Smart Grids
Smart
Meter
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Conventional
grid
Gro
wth
in
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ne
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erg
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ou
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s
Rising Penetration of EV and PHEV
spinning can help to secure the balance between consumption and production of RES.
• The Feed-in of stored energy allows a massive integration of RES.
Technical requirements for grid support
• To support the grid some changes in the operating behavior might be necessary.
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• To guarantee the frequency and voltage stability of the grid some simple regulations in EVs can be implemented.
• A regulated charging can avoid overloads of assets.
Reduce
energy
demand
during a
fault
Frequency
stability
Voltage
stability
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Gro
wth
in
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ou
rce
s
Rising Penetration of EV and PHEV
overloads of assets.• Additional spinning reserve
guarantees the balance of the grid.• Special strategies during fault
times support the fast stabilization of the grid.
Requirements for a high integration of EV and PHEV
• To integrate a significant amount of EV and PHEV some technical requirements have to be fulfilled.
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• An accounting system and a charging infrastructure are obligated as soon as possible.
• To control the vehicles a communication infrastructure has to be established.
Advanced
ICT
ICT
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Gro
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ou
rce
s
Rising Penetration of EV and PHEV
infrastructure has to be established. • To provide V2G services more
communication signals are required.• A bidirectional power connection
is required to earn revenue for the vehicle owner.
Conventional
grid
Supporting renewable energy sources with EV • Electrical vehicles profit not only from the collaboration with RES,
they can support a high penetration of RES in the grid!
Gro
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• To reduce the emission in the transport sector, the highest benefit is generated if EV and PHEV charge renewable energy.
• A regulated charging enable higher penetration rates.
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Gro
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Rising Penetration of EV and PHEV
penetration rates.• Active load management and
ancillary services can integrate energy from RES in times of an energy surplus
• Intermitted storage of RES-E in high demand times!
Unregulated
charging
Summary of results
Policy Strategy
Policy options to stimulate EVs
Prepare for EV’s
• Infrastructure and standardization
• Pilot fleets in niche markets - learning
Increase RES-E production
• Feed-in tariffs or premiums
• RPS or obligations• Cap and trade
Ensure balanced grid development
• Priority access for renewables
• Coordinate technical and
• To stimulate large scale introduction of EV’s and co-evolution with RES-E, a two-phased, long term policy approach is needed:
Phase 1Market Preparation
I
Increase
s
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markets - learning effects and cost reductions
• Provide long term perspective to industry
• Cap and trade technical and institutional efforts
• Smart grids and active load management
Phase 2Deployment
Increase
deployment
of
EV
to
reach
mass
markets
system
integration
to
enable
higher
use
of
EV
and
RES
Current RES-E policies are strengthened with increased penetration of EVs
• Direct incentive because absolute RES-E target increases with growth of electricity consumption from EV
RES-E target as % of electricity demand
• Indirect incentive when preferential charging improves the profitability of e.g. wind power -more RES-E supported with same subsidy budget
Feed-in tariffs or premiums
• Enabling role in providing transparency to EV owner Certificate systems
• Indirect incentive through increased CO2 price to RES-E or other low-carbon electricity
Cap and trade systems
In Europe, EVs shift part of transport sector’s energy consumption under ETS
EVs substituting conventional cars:
•••• More CO2 in ETS• Incentive for RES -E or CCS
ETS
2• Incentive for RES -E or CCS• Post 2012 ceiling to be negotiated• Refineries included in ETS
Direct
transport
emissions
Non-ETS
New policies to provide a direct linkage?
DSO OEM Utilities GovernmentDSO• Invest energy tax
for traction current in additional RES-E deployment via energy fund
• Requires smart metering
OEM• Allow to count EV’s
as ZEV if financial contribution per sold EV goes to energy fund (depending on vehicle type MJ/km)
• Helps lower overallfleet emissions
Utilities• System stabilizing
bonus if consumers connect their car to the grid
• Set up independent energy fund that invests in RES-E deployment, financed from DSO and OEM
Government• Hard coupling:
increase RES-E share in the system with growing EV market penetration
• Tax exemption on traction current if from RES-E
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Policies linking EVs directly to RES-E:Pros and cons
PRO CON
Grid stabilizing Better RES-E utilization Advanced meteringbonus Stable grids and implementation
Invest electricity tax Additional RES-E Special electricity tariff EVsmarket distortionmarket distortion
RES-E fundEVs counted as ZEV Additional RES-E More high CO2
in return for contribution ICE cars?to RES-E fund Conflicts of interests?
Tax exemption EVs Additional RES-E CostsIf using RES-E
‘Hard’ coupling electricity EVs powered by 100% Costs (for EV-driverEVs and absolute additional RES-E and/or society)RES-targets
Regional scenariosThree regional cases regarding grid maturity and share of RES-E:
• Robust grids; generally high availability of RES-EEU
• Low capacity grids; limited interconnection local grids; wide range RES-E shareUS
• Low to very low capacity in combination with Developing
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Regions studied differ considerably in driving patterns
Recommendations:• Increase interconnection of local and regional grids to allow
higher share of intermittent RES-E• Introduce more ambitious targets for RES-E
• Low to very low capacity in combination with a low stability
Developing countries
Regional scenarios
EU Devel.
World
US
From scooter to Tata Nano Electric?
Lower consumer demands developing world:window of opportunity for EVs?
→
Recommendations from the project
• Provide security of investment for car industry• Involve a variety of actors (see next slides)• Coordinate network development and system
integration to allow high penetrations of EV and RES-E
To stimulate large scale introduction of
EV’s and co-evolution with RES-E,
consistent long term policy is required
• Phase 1: market preparation with focus on pilots, cost reduction and standardization
• Phase 2: measures aiming at increased deployment and system integration
Two main phases are distinguished
Complex problem may require more central co-ordination
• Connecting EVs and RES-E is complex from a technical, institutional, organizational and policy point of view
• Many stakeholders, many interactions
• At the moment no one is really in charge• Leadership / co-ordination is required
• Who will take leadership in this?• Utilities / grid operators
• Lead instead of accommodate changes• Politics
• For EU some of this is already under discussion in Brussels
• A combination• Through stronger regulation / incentives for utilities
Conclusions
Conclusions
• Renewables are not dependent on EVs for their full deployment• But EVs may help to increase uptake of renewable energy
• EVs do need renewables to realise their full benefit:• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions• Reduce dependence on fossil fuels
• A co-evolution between the introduction of electric vehicles and increased renewable electricity production may provide a range of synergies:
• Buffering peaks in renewable electricity production• Vehicle-to-grid functions: grid stabilisation
Conclusions (continued)
• Synergies may:• improve the business case for electric vehicles and for
renewable electricity• increase the speed of and potential for the uptake of
renewable energy in the electricity sector
• Coordinated policy and system integration are required for • Coordinated policy and system integration are required for harvesting these synergies
• The synergies shown for electric vehicles and "green" electricity may to some extent also be valid for other options such as biofuels and hydrogen that allow the use of renewable energy in transport
ANNEXES
Detailed overview of status, challenges and uncertainties for
electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles:- vehicle perspective-vehicle perspective
-grid perspective
Status / challenges / opportunities / uncertaintiesVehicle perspective: battery-electric vehicles (1)Market status• Lithium-ion battery technology now
allows electric driving ranges of > 200 km.
• Electric propulsion has a high energy efficiency.
• Some conversions and small-volume purpose-design electric vehicles available commercially.
Challenges
Technical issues• High initial costs of battery-electric
vehicles, combined with uncertainties associated with battery lifetime.
• Limited driving range combined with long recharging time if charged at home (on a 110 / 220 Vac outlet).available commercially.
• Some OEM vehicles close to the market. Many OEMs prepare commercialisation for 2013-15.
• Plug standardisation proposed in Europe.
• Pilot projects started in many cities.• First development of charging
infrastructure is starting.
home (on a 110 / 220 Vac outlet).
Non-technical issues• Requirements for a new charging
infrastructure.• Standardisation of charging
infrastructure, plugs and grid-vehicle communication (including payment systems).
Status / challenges / opportunities / uncertaintiesVehicle perspective: battery-electric vehicles (2)Opportunities• Good driveability.• Electricity can be produced from any
primary energy source, be it fossil or renewable.
• In combination with carbon capture and storage, electricity may also create a route for CO2-free energy from fossil sources.
UncertaintiesTechnical issues• Battery lifetime and safety issues.• Impact of fast charging on battery
lifetime and energy efficiency.• Development of battery costs. • Development of alternative battery
technologies.• Lead time for increasing battery from fossil sources.
• Role of battery-electric vehicles as buffers for storing excess renewable electricity production and smoothing of short term variations in the supply-demand balance.
• Role of battery-electric vehicles as a pull for increasing the share of renewables in electricity generation .
• Lead time for increasing battery production capacity.
• Material availability issues.Non-technical issues• Role of battery-electric vehicles in the
mobility system / rebound effects.• Development of future vehicle and
energy tax regimes. • Treatment of EVs in future CO2
legislation for vehicles.• Role of EVs in future developments
regarding e.g. the EU-ETS.
Status / challenges / opportunities / uncertaintiesVehicle perspective: Plug-in hybridsMarket status• Some conversions available commercially.• Two OEM vehicles close to the market.
Some OEMs prepare commercialisation for 2013-15.
• Plug standardisation proposed in Europe.• Pilot projects started in some cities.
Challenges• High initial vehicle costs.• Concerns over battery lifetime.• Similar issues as for EVs concerning the
need for a charging infrastructure and standardisation.
Opportunities• PHEVS may combine benefits of EVs and
Uncertainties• Concerns regarding impact of charging from • PHEVS may combine benefits of EVs and
conventional vehicles while avoiding some disadvantages of EVs.
• Similar opportunities as with charge sustaining hybrids related to improved driveability, propulsion system electrification and creating economies of scale and learning effects for electric propulsion system components.
• Increased driving range compared to EVs, avoidance of "range anxiety".
• Concerns regarding impact of charging from the grid on battery lifetime and overall energy efficiency at the vehicle level.
• The lower electric power demand for PHEVs compared to EVs may lead to lower effective utilisation of the charging infrastructure and to higher costs per kWh delivered.
• Similar uncertainties as with EVs regarding developments in performance and costs of batteries as well as material availability issues.
Status / challenges / opportunities / uncertaintiesGrid perspective: accommodating EVs in gridMarket status• For low penetration rates an integration of
EVs into the grid is nearly everywhere possible
• First technical developments e.g. a consistent plug system are developed
• Some Grid operator have installed a first public charging infrastructure
Challenges
Technical issues• Weak grid structures might not be able to
integrate EVs
Non-technical issues• No common approach for a broad charging
infrastructure• Not all technical standards are appointed
Opportunities UncertaintiesOpportunities• A charging regulation might reduce stress in
the grid because of a high integration of EVs• EVs can provide services to support and
stabilize the grid• Frequency stabilization• Voltage stabilization
• With the development of smart grids the applications for EVs will rise and revenues can be generated
Uncertainties
Non-technical issues• Diffusion of the charging infrastructure is
depending of estimated penetration rates• The application of EVs depends on the
availability of the vehicles during the day and the battery costs
• Business models have to be found to refund the grid related services to the vehicle owner
Status / challenges / opportunities / uncertaintiesGrid perspective: EVs providing grid servicesMarket status• EVs can not provide any services today• The laws for ancillary services often forbid
the participation of EVs
ChallengesTechnical issues• Missing infrastructure• Nowadays no communication possibleNon-technical issues• No standardization of communication
protocols• Business models have to be developed and
established
Opportunities• EVs can provide
Uncertainties• EVs can provide
• Demand Side Management• Feed-in of stored renewable energy• Ancillary services
• Primary reserve • Secondary reserve• Tertiary reserve
• Arbitrage at the EEX• Frequency stabilization• Voltage stabilization
• Revenue can be up to 300€ per year
Technical issues• Development of the grid is necessary
1. Communication infrastructure 2. Area-wide charging infrastructure
- Unidirectional- Bidirectional
3. Smart grids and smart meters
Non-technical issues• Revenue depends highly on the battery
costs and might not be reasonable
Status / challenges / opportunities / uncertaintiesGrid perspective: increased renewable electricity s upplyMarket status• The integration of renewables is rising
rapidly• In some country produced energy is
temporally higher than the energy demand
challenges• To guarantee a secure energy supply
conventional power plants have to be kept available
• The need for ancillary services might rise
Opportunities• EVs can support the integration of
Uncertainties• The services have to be provided on basis • EVs can support the integration of
renewable energies1. Charge EVs exclusively with energy
from RES2. Regulation of the charging process
into times with an oversupply of renewable energy � active load management
3. Providing ancillary services (uni- and bidirectional)
4. Intermitted storage of energy from RES
• The services have to be provided on basis of business models still to be developed
• High battery prices can make the applications inefficient
• Driving patterns have to be analyzed to guarantee the availability of the vehicles to provide the services
• The requirements will differ for each country depending on their power plant mix and the development of the renewable energy sources
Policy options by actor
Policy options by actor (1)
Actor 2010-2015 2015-2020
Government - Set ambitious mid- and long term GHG reduction targets
- Develop consistent framework for CO2emission standards for road vehicles
- Stimulate R&D to increase battery energy density, lifetime and safety, decrease recharging time
- Stimulate large scale pilot projects to gain learning effects and reduce cost
- Adjust incentives when costs have decreased
- Coordinate development of national recharging networks
- Increase RES targets based on EV penetration
gain learning effects and reduce cost- Set up policy framework with EV
incentives for consumers/manufacturers- Initial policy focus on early adopters and
niche markets- Set-up energy fund financed from
energy tax- Raise consumer awareness for electric
vehicle- Incorporate EV infrastructure in spatial
planning- Prioritize EV permitting procedures
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Policy options by actor (2)Actor 2010-2015 2015-2020
Car manufacturer - Initial roll-out of EV and PHEV models
- Implementation of converter that could provide bidirectional charging
- Increase production levels
- Extension of the converter to provide decentralized grid support (frequency stability, voltage stability)
Battery manufacturer
- R&D to increase battery energy density, lifetime and safety,
- Develop next generation batteries that outperform manufacturer density, lifetime and safety,
decrease recharging time- Improve recyclability of batteries
and set of effective recycling systems
batteries that outperform current generation
Regulator - Change grid codes for the participation in the regulation markets
- Participation for all kinds of ancillary services
- (Preference for the ancillary services provided by EV to support RES.)
RES-E operators/ Supplier
- Provide electricity tariffs that are exclusively for RES,
- Special tariff for EV and PHEV
- Extension of the tariffs and the energy offered
- Development of new RES-E capacity
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Policy options by actor (3)
Actor 2010-2015 2015-2020
Transmission System Operator
- Develop plans for electricity system and recharging infrastructure
- Develop and install smart grids
- Ensure full smart metering and smart grids coverage and adequate daytime charging coverage
Distribution System Operator
- Set up accounting structure , allowing EV driver to choose supplier
- accommodate home charging
- Enable transparentgreen electricity use for the customer
- accommodate home charging and selected public locations,
- Start rollout of infrastructure for daytime / office charging , including fast charging
- Install intelligent metering
Standardization bodies
- Common standards for plugs , recharging protocols in major regions
- Include a possibility for communication
- Standards for systems allowing V2G
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