Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian R i

DEVELOPING MALAYSIA’s LOW CARBON SOCIETY

Regions

(LCS) VISION 2020 and 2030

COP19 Warsaw15 Nov 2013

Ho Chin Siong (UTM) , Yuzuru Matsuoka and Kei Gomi (Kyoto University )Junichi Fujino and Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES)Junichi Fujino and Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES)

Email: ho@utm.my/ csho59@yahoo.com

Results of main variables

2020 20302005 2020 2030 2020/2005

2030/200

5

26 32 8 3 3 3Population 26.1 32.8 37.3 1.3 1.4 Mil

Household 5.8 8.2 9.3 1.4 1.6 Mil

GDP 509 996 1,601 2.0 3.1 BilRM

Per capita Per capita GDP 19.5 30.4 43.0 1.6 2.2 ‘000

Gross 1,60 3,13 4 929 2 0 3 1 B RMoutput 4 5 4,929 2.0 3.1 B RM

Passenger transport 169 315 359 1.9 2.1

Bil. pss-

2

transport kmFreight transport 92 150 214 1.6 2.3 Bt-km

Projected output by 26 sectors

4,500

5,000 Public ServicesOther Private ServicesEducation, Research & DevelopmentAccomodation & Restraunts Tertiary

3 500

4,000

Accomodation & RestrauntsWholesale & RetailReal EstateFinance & InsuranceTransport Services

Tertiary industries

3,000

3,500

RM

Transport ServicesWater WorksElectricity & Gas supplyConstructionOther Manufacturing Products

2,000

2,500 Bill.

R

gTransport EquipmentsElectric and Electronic EquipmentsGeneral MachineryOther Metal Products

Secondary industries

1,500

Iron & SteelCement, Ceramic, Stone & Cray ProductsChemical ProductsPetrolium Refinery & Coal Products

500

1,000 Paper & PulpTextiles & Wearing ApparelFood, Drink & Tabacco ProductsOther Mining Primary

i d i

3

0 2005 2020 2030

Oil and Gas MiningAgriculture, Forestry & Fishing

industries

Projected transport volume• Both modal share and transport volume of private

vehicle increase in 2020• Freight transport volume increases proportionally with

growth of secondary industries

Freight transportPassenger transport400 200

250

300

350

m

Bicycle

Walk150

m

Train

V hi l

150

200

250

Bill.

pas

s-km Two wheelers

Train

100

Bill.

t-k

m Vehicle

50

100 Bus

Vehicles

50

4

0 2005 2020

BaU2030BaU

0 2005 2020 2030

Projected final energy demand by sectors

• Share of each sector is fit to NC2 in 2020BaU scenario• The largest energy consumer is industry sectorg gy y

100

120 Fgt. Transport

Pass. Transport

60

80

l. t

oe

p

Industry

Commercial

20

40

Mill Commercial

Residential

0

20

2005 2020 2020 2020 2030 2030 2030

5

2005 2020BaU

2020CM1

2020CM2

2030BaU

2030CM1

2030CM2

Projected energy mix of power supply• Power supply mix is projected to fit primary supply of each type of

energy in NC2C l i it h i ifi tl i ll i• Coal increase its share significantly in all scenarios

• In 2030CM scenario, share of renewable energies reaches nearly 20%.

Coal Oil Gas Hydro power Solar & mini hydro Biomass and other renewables Nuclear

2005

2020BaU

2020CM1

2020CM2

2030BaU

2030CM1

2030CM2

60% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2030CM2

Projected CO2 emissions• In 2020BaU, CO2 emission doubled from 2005, and tripled in 2030BaU.• In CM1 scenario, it was reduced by 21%(2020) and 44%(2030) from BaU

scenariosscenarios.• In CM2 scenario, it was reduced by 44%(2020) and 55% (2030) from BaU

scenarios.

533

500

600 BaU

CM1

363

296

400

500

O2

CM2

Base year

287 296

204 238

145 200

300

Mill

. tC

145

100

7

0 2005 2020 2030

Contribution of mitigation options• Both in 2020CM and 2030CM, energy efficiency improvement of

commercial sector has the largest share.I 2030CM ffi i i t i l i • In 2030CM, energy efficiency improvement in power supply is second largest.

Emission reduction from BaU scenarios

250

300

EEI in power supply

150

200

CO2

p pp yRE in power supplyModal shiftBio diesel in transportEEI i F t T t t

50

100

150

Mill

. tC EEI in Fgt. Transport sector

EEI in Pass. Transport sector EEI in Industry sector EEI in Commercial sector

0

50

2020CM1

2020CM2

2030CM1

2030CM2

EEI in Commercial sector EEI in Residential sector

8EEI: energy efficiency improvement

CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2

Projected GHG emissions (waste)• In BaU, GHG emission increased more than 2 times in 2020 and 2.8

times in 2030I CM1 i i d d b 41% (2020) d 68% (2030) f B U• In CM1, emission was reduced by 41% (2020) and 68% (2030) from BaU

• In CM2, emission was reduced by 54% (2020) and 74% (2030) from BaU

BaU CM1 CM2

0

80

50

60

70

CO2e

q

POME

Construction

Industry

20

30

40 MtC

Commercial

Residential

0

10

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

000

005

010

015

020

025

030

000

005

010

015

020

025

030

9

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 20 20 20 20 20 20

Contribution of mitigation options• In S1, CH4 recovery shows the largest contribution• In S2, recycling is the largest and CH4 recovery is less than S1

b f l CH4 ti lt d f th iti ti because of less CH4 generation resulted from other mitigation options.

50

60

CH4

30

40

O2e

q

CH4 recovery

Composting

20

30

MtC

O

Incineration

R li

0

10 Recycling

10

2020CM1

2020CM2

2030CM1

2030CM2

Input & output of AFOLU modelInput OutputAFOLU Emission model

List of CountermeasureCharacteristics of CountermeasureScenario of;

C d ti

Emission/ MitigationTypes of countermeasures

- Crop production- Number of Livestock animals- Land-use change

Fertilizer input

- Cost- Reduction effect- Life time/ project period

- Fertilizer input- Wood production etc.- Price of Commodity and Energy- Yield of crops and Carcass weight of

- Diffusion ratio- Energy consumption and

recovery- Yield of crops and Carcass weight of

animals- Production systemPolicy;

- Feeding system of livestock Manure management systemPolicy;

- GHG emission tax rate- Energy tax rate - Subsidy

- Manure management system- Share ratio of irrigation and rain

fed area

11

Subsidy

Scenario: Harvested area of crops• Total croplands: 9.8 mil. ha in 2000 11.3mil.ha in 2030• Yield: 2.5 times from 2000 to 2030 (Hasegawa, 2011)• Oil palm area is increasing up to 5 mil. ha by 2020 (Wicke et al.,

2011).• Other crops: Extrapolation from 2005 to 2030 using growth ratio • Other crops: Extrapolation from 2005 to 2030 using growth ratio

from 2005 to 2009• Fertilizer per area is set based on yield

– Yield may change depending on Fertilizer input

6000 Rice

4000

5000

6000

0ha]

RiceMaizeVegetables, fruit, treenuts, roots and tubersOil palm

1000

2000

3000

Are

a [0

0 Sugar caneRubberCocoaTea

12

0

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030

TeaTobaccoPepper

Scenario: livestock animals• Base year: NC2• 2009 (the latest data): FAOSTAT2009 (the latest data): FAOSTAT• 2010 to 2030: increase at ratios in 2005 to 2009

800] 400

500600700

[000

hea

d]

dairy cattle

other cattle 250300350400

mil.

hea

d] swineschickensducks

200300400500

l num

ber [

other cattle

buffaloes

sheep100150200250

al n

umbe

r [m

0100200

Ani

ma

goats

horses 050

100

2000 2010 2020 2030

Ani

ma

13

2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030

Scenario: land use and land use change

• Forestland: NC2 for 2000, 2005, 2009, 2010 and 2020• Grassland: FAOSTAT(2011)( )• Cropland is total harvested area of crops• A ratio of settlements to total country area:y

– 5.8% in 2008 7.3% in 2020 (NPP2)• Otherland : Total Land area – othersOtherland : Total Land area others

30

35

20

25

30

mil.

ha]

Other landSettlementCropland

5

10

15

Are

a [m

CroplandGrasslandForestland

14

01970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Findings from AFOLU modelAFOLU model was applied in Malaysia and estimates GHG emissions and mitigations in AFOLU sectors.

Sectors BaU emissions Mitigation Potential

[MtCO2eq/yr] 2020 2030 2020 2030[MtCO2eq/yr] 2020 2030 2020 2030

Agriculture 7.2 7.9 1.4 1.4

LULUCF -174 -163 75 91

Total -167 -155 77 93

• Countermeasures which have high mitigation potential;– Midseason drainage for Agriculture.– Reduce impact logging for LULUCF– Reduce impact logging for LULUCF.

* Malaysia NC2, Chap.3, p38, Fig3.4 & Table3.5 BaU case

15

GHG emissions from other emission sources

• In future scenarios, CO2 emission from cement was increased because of more demand of cement for construction. CH4 i i f t l i l t t t b f • CH4 emission from natural gas is almost constant because of assumption of natural gas primary production.

60

70 36 46 58 55 48 70 66 61

17 29 26 26

41 37 39

40

50

eq

CO2 from Cement production

14

17

20

30

MtC

O2e production

CH4 from fugitive emission

22 29 29 29 29 29 29 29

0

10

emission

2000(NC2)

2005 2020BaU

2020CM1

2020CM2

2030BaU

2030CM1

2030CM2

16

Integration• Combining all three sectors: Energy, Waste

AFOLU and other emission sourcesAFOLU and other emission sources

• For AFOLU sectors, @<10USD/tCO2eq case was applied both for CM1 and CM2 was applied both for CM1 and CM2 scenarios.

17

Summary of mitigation options2020 2030

CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2

Diffusion of energy efficient devices 40% 70% 75% 85%

EEI rate from BaU of thermal power plants 10% 21% 20% 30%

Modal shift from passenger cars 10% 22% 20% 40%

Share of bio diesel in transport 2% 6% 3% 8%

Capacity of RE power plant (MW) 2080 4160 4160 10400

Recycling rate of solid waste 40% 55% 50% 60%

Incineration rate of solid waste 10% 15% 20% 20%Incineration rate of solid waste 10% 15% 20% 20%

Recovery rate of CH4 from waste management 25% 35% 40% 40%

Reduction rate of CO2 emissions from cement d ti 10% 10% 10% 10%production process 10% 10% 10% 10%

Mitigations in AFOLU sectors <10USD/ktCO2eq

<100USD/ktCO2eq

<10USD/ktCO2eq

<100USD/ktCO2eq

18

GHG emissions

• Energy has the largest contribution in both scenarios in all years.• In BaU scenario, GHG emission increased by 99% (2020) and 174%

(2030) from 2005(2030) from 2005• In CM1 scenario, it was reduced by 22% (2020) and 42% (2030) from

BaU, in CM2, 41% (2020) and 52% (2030).

BaU CM1 CM2800

Others

500

600

700 Others

LULUCF

Agriculture

Waste

Fgt Transport

300

400

MtC

O2e

q Fgt. Transport

Pass. Transport

Industry

Commercial

R id ti l

0

100

200 Residential

19Periods between projected years were interpolated linearly.

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Emission intensity (GHG emission per GDP)

0 7 -22% -40%

0.62

0 5

0.6

0.7 from 2005

from 2005

0.52 0.53

0.41 0.43 0.4

0.5

2eq/

RM

0.31

0.21 0.21 0.2

0.3

kgCO

0.0

0.1

2000 2005 2020 2020 2020 2030 2030 20302000 (NC2)

2005 2020BaU

2020CM1

2020CM2

2030Bau

2030CM1

2030CM2

20

Per capita GHG emission

21

16.1

19.5

15

18

9 4 10.2

12.4

9 5 9 5 9 5 9

12

tCO

2eq

9.4 9.5 9.5 9.5

3

6

0 2000 (NC2)

2005 2020BaU

2020CM1

2020CM2

2030Bau

2030CM1

2030CM2(NC2) BaU CM1 CM2 Bau CM1 CM2

21

Contribution to emission reduction in 2020

CM1 CM2Others

2%Others

1%

Agriculture

Forestry&Landuse18% EEI in demand

t

Forestry&Landuse

EEI in demand sectors

38%Waste

1% sectors32%

duse29%

Waste18%

EEI in power supply14%

Waste7%

Agriculture1%

EEI in power supply11%

Renewable energy

8%

Modal shift4%

14%Renewable

energy11%

Modal shift5%

22

Emissions, sink, and net emissions

900 Emissions (BaU)

700

( )

Emissions (CM1)

Emissions (CM2)

E i i (A t l)

300

500

tCO

2eq

Emissions (Actual)

Net emission (BaU)

Net emission (CM1)

100

300

Mill

.

Net emission (CM2)

Net emission (Actual)

Sink (BaU)

-100

Sink (BaU)

Sink (CM1)

Sink (CM2)

Si k (A t l)-3002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Sink (Actual)

23

Conclusion• Target GHGs are: CO2 from energy use, CO2 and CH4 from waste

management, CO2, CH4 and N2O in AFOLU sectorsM d li lt h d th t i 2020B U i GHG i i • Modeling result showed that in 2020BaU scenario, GHG emission was doubled from 2005.

• In Countermeasure scenario, GHG emission intensity was reduced by , y y23% from 2005 in 2020CM1 and 40% from 2005 In 2020CM2 scenario.

• In order to achieve -40% target of emission reduction, more intensive implementation is needed especially in energy sectorintensive implementation is needed especially in energy sector.

• It is important to note that climate resilient policy strategy is based on balanced development whereby measures need to be balanced with Malaysia’s need to continue to grow to increase its per-capita productivity and income, eradicate poverty and raise living standards.

• Apart from mitigation measures, Malaysia also focuses on adaptation effort that builds resilience against potential impacts.

24