developing an interactive atmosphere-air pollutant forecast system jeff mcqueen, youhua tang, sarah...
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Developing an Interactive Atmosphere-Air Pollutant
Forecast System
Jeff McQueen, Youhua Tang, Sarah Lu, Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim, Pius Lee and Marina Tsidulko
Tom Black, Henry Juang, Zavisa Janjic, Mark Iredell, Geoff DiMegoNWS/NCEP/EMC
Ken Schere and Rohit MathurNOAA/OAR/ARL & EPA
Georg Grell and Steve PeckhamNOAA/OAR/GSD
Roland Draxler, Barbara Stunder and Ariel SteinNOAA/OAR/ARL
Arlindo DaSilva, Mian ChinNASA/GSFC
…
Current Offline AQ Forecast Systems
Pollutant Region Model Emissions
Anthropogenic Chemistry
(O3, experimental aerosols)
CONUS,
O-CONUS
NAM-CMAQ
(12 km, 48 hrs)
NEI 2005 inventories extrapolated for current year
Wild-fire smoke (visible smoke and total concentrations)
CONUS,
O-CONUS
NAM-HYSPLIT
(15 km, 48 hrs)
NESDIS HMS fire locations
USFS BlueSkies emissions
Dust
(Developmental PM,
5 size bins)
Global GFS-GOCART
(100 km, 48 hours)
1 degree land use
Volcanic Ash
(Visible ash plume)
VAAC -DC North American Regions
GFS-HYSPLIT NESDIS volcano location and release height
GEOS-GOCART Analysis AOD
GFS-GOCART Dust concentration forecast
In-Line Chem Advantages
• Consistent: all transport done by meteorology model– Same vertical and horizontal coordinates (no
horizontal and vertical interpolation)– Same physics parameterization for subgrid scale
transport– No interpolation in time
• Easy handling (Data management)• Most efficient (overall CPU costs)
Earth Systems Modeling Framework at NCEP
• NOAA is moving toward placing modeling systems under the multi-agency unified Earth Systems Modeling Framework (ESMF)
• The NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) and North American Model (NAM) NMM dynamics and physics have been incorporated into ESMF National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)
• Code simplicity and clarity are essential so that most users can understand code with relative ease
ESMF Superstructure(component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc)
Application Driver
ESMF* Compliant Global Component System (Iredell/Lu)
* Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC)
GOCART aerosol
chemistry,smoke,
dust, ash
Physics(1,2,3) Coupler
Dynamics(1,2)
•GFS Atmospheric Model Component (AM) import/export state consists of winds, temperature, pressure (surface, midlayer and thickness), and tracers on a reduced Gaussian grid model native Lorenz grid.
•GFS currently requires ESMF 3.0.1; can evolve to 3.1.
•GFS tracer capabilities: advection, diffusion, potentially convective transport, probably not scavenging.
AM
ESMF Superstructure(component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc)
Application Driver
ESMF* Compliant RegionalSystem: NEMS Inline coupling
* Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC)
CB05/AERO-4 anthro,HYSPLIT/GOCART smoke,
dust, ash emissions
•NMMB Atmospheric Model Component (AM) import/export state consists of winds, temperature, pressure (surface, midlayer and thickness), and tracers on a rotated lat-lon Arakowa B staggerd grid.
•NEMS tracer capabilities: advection, diffusion, convective transport & scavenging, deposition.
Physics(1,2,3)
Dynamics(1,2)
AM
Planned Initial NEMS Pollutant Options
Gas-Phase Aerosols
Global Anthro:EDGAR, GEIA
SimplifiedNO3
GOCART/HYSPLIT Anthro, dust, smoke,sea-salt,volcanic ash
Regional Anthro:SMOKE w/BEIS
CB05, WCHEM AERO-4 anthro
Natural:USFS/HMSWild fires, Volcanic ash
GOCART/HYSPLIT
smoke, dust, ash
Pollutant ComponentEmissionsComponent
minimum= .0000E+00 maximum= .0000E+00 interval= .0000E+00
NP
GM
ID
250. mb tracer
17. 1.2008. 12 UTC + 00060
minimum= .0000E+00 maximum= .0000E+00 interval= .0000E+00
NP
GM
ID
250. mb tracer
17. 1.2008. 12 UTC + 00120
2.5 days 5 days
NMM-B Global InlineTracer TestZavis Janjic NCEP/EMC
minimum= .0000E+00 maximum= .0000E+00 interval= .0000E+00
250. mb tracer
20. 7.2006. 0 UTC + 00000
minimum= .0000E+00 maximum= .0000E+00 interval= .0000E+00
250. mb tracer
20. 7.2006. 0 UTC + 00048
minimum= .0000E+00 maximum= .0000E+00 interval= .0000E+00
250. mb tracer
20. 7.2006. 0 UTC + 00096
48
96
NMM-B Regional InlineTracer TestZavis Janjic & Youhua Tang, NCEP/EMC
NEMS Pollutant Plans
• Loose Coupled: Stand alone chemistry/dispersion model (1-2 years)
– Put CMAQ/GOCART/HYSPLIT into ESMF compatible format– Write interface between atm-chem models as a separate component– NOAH LSM exports to drive chemistry biogenic emission & dry deposition– Radiation parameters exports to chemistry for photolysis computations
• Tight Concurrent Coupled: Unified met-dispersion physics/dynamics (3-5 years)– Test tracer capability for mass consistency (NMMB, GFS)– Create AQ I/O Interface: anthropogenic sources, smoke, ash– Create independent CB05/AERO/GOCART/HYSPLIT subroutines (1-D)
• Pollutant processes: chemistry if any, wet & dry deposition– Transfer species to dynamics coupler for advection, horizontal diffusion– Transfer species to physics: turbulence, convection routines for turbulent
and convective mixing– Transfer aerosol output to radiation and cloud microphysics to allow aerosol
feedbacks on meteorology
Potential Additional Volcanic Ash Focus & Data Needs
• USGS volcano types to improve emission rates• Improved plume height estimation
– Hysplit ensemble minimization– satellite estimates
• Leverage on-going global aerosol data assimilation developments for Volcanic ash
• NCEP GSI 3-D VAR aerosol optical depth assimilation system
• Phase I: Assimilate MODIS, GOES, OMI AOD products• Phase II:AVHRR, MISR, etc and direct radiance assimilation
Operational Upgrades
• Development phase (0-2 years)– Complete model development within NEMS with OAR & NASA and other
research collaborators– Begin retrospective testing to compare results with current operational systems
• Experimental testing ( 2-3 years)– Transition initial NEMS codes to NWS/NCEP operational center– Provide and evaluate real-time experimental forecasts to focus group of
interested forecasters
• Operational Implementation (3 years)– Modified model configuration based on subjective and quantitative evaluations w/
current operational system– Additional resources made available to support operational forecast timing
requirements– Distribution through current VAAC pathways and possibly NDGD and AWIPS