deutscher wetterdienst needs and use of post processing and model interpretation, examples model...

Deutscher Wetterdienst

Needs and use of post processing and model

interpretation, examples

•Model fields: calculated parameters from one model or an ensemble of model forecasts as new GRIB

•DMO and Model output statistics (MOS) Weather parameters near the surface for many (1000) locations, deterministic and probabilistic

T. Kratzsch, DWD, WV1


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List of forecast Parameters for thecustomers


„WANTED“Zielgröße benutzte Größen benutzte Größen

in NinJo vorhanden nicht vorhanden

Sonnenscheindauer(Minuten/Stunde) und relativ

Globalstrahlung(Stundensumme)

div. Parameter der Sonnenbahn

Beleuchtungsstärke Globalstrahlung(Stundensumme)

Windrichtung100m-Wind (stdl.), div. Höhen

100m-Wind (3-stdl.)

Windgeschwindigkeit100m-Wind (stdl.), div. Höhen

100m-Wind (3-stdl.)

Diffusionskategorie Windgeschwindigkeit, Gesamtbe-deckung, Tageszeit

…. und weitere


Model fields: calculated parameters from one model or an ensemble of model forecasts as new GRIB

• The role of the meteorologist:• Understand what the models does, i.e. reasons for increasing/decreasing of

intensity• Spread of the lowest and strongest solution in an ensemble• Comparison of different models (area, time, intensity of met. events)• Useful parameters, that are not model values (fog, Ceiling)• Describe that (Guidance texts) and react if model goes wrong

• Comparison is much easier with combined / resulting parameters (ww, rain amount)

• Monitoring of predictands for severe weather events (SDI, tornado parameters, severe ice etc)


Interpretation of Ensemble results:

Don‘t look for 50 members but for the Prob. of predictible valuesProbability fields for tresholds of wind gusts and rainfall, Areas of low preasure or large values of CAPE or CIN

Probabilities do not replace deterministic values for both – meteorologists and customers!Met. and users need deterministic forecasts and warnings (Guidances)

Probs for warning tresholds transformed to Guidance (first guess) of deterministic warnings (severeness and duration)


Samstag, 12 UTC

Z + T 500 hPa06.08., 00 + 60 H

ww + Bodendruck + Fronten06.08., 00 + 60 H


Sonntag, 12 UTC

Z + T 500 hPa06.08., 00 + 60 H

ww + Bodendruck + Fronten06.08., 00 + 84 H

Z 300 hPa / Omega 700hPa06.08., 00 + 84 UTC


Analyse (A-Format), 04.08., 06 UTC

Z 300 hPa / Omega 700 hPa04.08., 00 + 06 H


Z 300 hPa / Omega 700hPa06.08., 06 UTC

Heute, 06 UTC

Analyse, 06 UTC, A-Format


Sonntag, 12 UTC

GME, TKB + ww

GME, 23.07., 00 + 84 HZ 300 hPa / Omega 700 hPa


12-std. Niederschlag bis Samstag, 18 UTC, COSMO-EU, 06.08., 00 + 54 … 66 H12-std. Gewitterwahrscheinlichkeit, MOS(EZMW), 06.08., 00 + 54 …66 H


Simuliertes Sat-Bild (EZMW)08.07., 12 + 96 H

Prob RR > 1 mm, MOS(EZMW)09.07., 00 + 78 … 90 H


fx, COSMO-DE, 23.07., 00 + 18 H


GFS, 09.07., 00 + 162 HZ + T 850 hPa

CAPE + Lifting Index

Mittwoch, 18 UTC


COSMO-DE, ww, 21.07., 12 + 06 H+ Blitzbeobachtungen

Deutscher WetterdienstModelllauf vom 05.08., 00 UTC

EZMW, Z 1000 hPa EPS-Mittel für Sonntag, 16.August, 12 UTC

Modelllauf vom 04.08., 12 UTC

Modelllauf vom 03.08., 12 UTCModelllauf vom 04.08., 00 UTC


EPS des EZMW: Kumulative Verteilungs-Funktion der einzelnen VorhersagenRot: 08.07., 12 UTCViolett: 08.07., 00 UTCDunkelblau: 07.07., 12 UTC usw.


Kombinierte EFI-Karte, 22.07., 12 UTC


Do Fr Sa So Mo Di Mi Do Fr Sa So

Do Fr Sa So Mo Di Mi Do Fr Sa So


• Parameter in der Grenzschicht / Bodennähe:• Relative Feuchte in 975 hPa• Eckertscher Nebelindex auf LMK Basis• Ceiling nach TAF Kriterien (Wolkenuntergrenze mit Bedeckungsgrad >= 4/8)• lokale Feuchteänderung (zeitlich, z.B. 1stg. / 3stg.) als Hinweis für Tornadobildung aus LMK

• Konvektionsparameter als Grib-Felder:• Parameter werden mittels der Umgebungsmethode (Berücksichtigung auch der

Nachbargitterpunkte) berechnet. • Konvektionsparameter:

– Lifting Condensation Level, Level of Free Convection– Mixed-Layer CAPE over 0-3 km, Experimental Spout/Tornado index– Equilibrium Level Convective Cloud Top Temperature– MSL Pressure, 500 hPa Height, Mixed-Layer CAPE (lowest 1000m parcel)

• Supercell Detection Index (SDI)• vertikale Windscherung 0-1km, 0-3km, 0-6km aus LMK als Tornadohinweis• weitere Tornado-Indizes, vgl. Email an Dr. Seifert, Papier von Herrn Friedrich aus 2005

• Vereisungsprognose:• ADWICE auf Basis des LMK• Schneefallgrenze oder /und Nullgradgrenze aus LME und LMK

„WANTED“ seit 2005 / 2007:


How to give deterministic and probabilistic forecasts

to users/customers that are interested

in (deterministic) values for locations from high resolution models?

Use of interpretation methods from global models in high resolution models?

How to communicate uncertainty?

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