deutsche bank ag · 2020. 12. 10. · moody's investors service financial institutions...

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FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ISSUER COMMENT 9 December 2020 RATINGS DEUTSCHE BANK AG LT Senior Unsecured Debt Rating A3 Outlook Stable LT Junior Senior Unsecured Debt Rating Baa3 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) ba1 Source: Moodys.com Analyst Contacts Michael Rohr +49.69.70730.901 Senior Vice President [email protected] Yana Ruvinskaya +33.1.53.30.33.93 Associate Analyst [email protected] Peter E. Nerby, CFA +1.212.553.3782 Senior Vice President [email protected] Laurie Mayers +44.20.7772.5582 Associate Managing Director [email protected] Ana Arsov +1.212.553.3763 MD-Financial Institutions [email protected] Deutsche Bank AG Franchise stability and continued cost control will help support DB's credit profile On 9 December 2020, Deutsche Bank AG (DB, A3/A3, stable, ba1 1 ) hosted its second Investor Day since it announced its most radical shift in strategy . We continue to see the bank as being on track to achieving the majority of the plan's targets, in particular with regard to the proposed de-risking and cost-cutting measures. If DB completes its fundamental restructuring on target by end-2022, and maintains sound capital and liquidity metrics, its restructuring will be credit positive for bondholders. DB’s progress to date was reflected in the 3 November change in outlook on the bank’s ratings to stable from negative. DB maintains 2022 revenue targets, lowers cost guidance. DB expects group revenue to arrive at around €24.4 billion in 2022, virtually unchanged from the earlier €24.5 billion target. This includes a cumulative negative revenue effect of €1.2 billion during the remaining restructuring period, largely owing to lower global interest rates. Success in execution and, therefore, reaching its 2022 targets will rely less on DB's ability to rebuild and stabilize 'Core Bank' 2 revenues given the strong performance achieved in 2020, in particular in the Investment Bank (IB). DB expects adjusted costs 3 to arrive at €16.7 billion in 2022, down from its earlier target of €17.0 billion, a credit-positive. Moreover, DB will have booked around 85% of its transformation-related charges by year-end 2020, alleviating earnings strain in 2021 and 2022. Slower leverage ratio build as regulatory buffers improved and CRU wind-down slows. At group level, DB has lowered its guidance for the group leverage ratio to 4.5% from 5.0% by 2022. While we expect loan growth in the Core Bank to offset growth in leverage exposures by simultaneously lowering liquidity reserves, the higher overall leverage will be largely driven by the bank's CRU 4 shrinking at a slower pace than initially estimated. Post 2022, we anticipate the bank's leverage ratio to grow towards the original 5.0% target in light of regulatory inflation in the run up to 'Basel 4'. Loan loss charges will stay elevated, but diversified loan book will help mitigate undue earnings strain. For 2021, DB expects loan loss charges to drop slightly from the anticipated 2020 charge-off level of 41 basis points (bps) of gross loans. A larger relief is expected for 2022 (25-30 bps), anticipating the global coronavirus pandemic to recede. We believe these targets are realistic in light of the banks diversified and Germany-focused loan book. Solid capital and liquidity continue protecting bondholders. DB maintained its guidance of a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of above 12.5% by 2022 ('around' 13%) and during the ongoing restructuring (Q3 2020: 13.3%). In addition, and although expected to shrink over the next two years, DB's €253 billion liquidity reserve substantially mitigates the refinancing risks associated with its more confidence-sensitive wholesale market funding.

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Page 1: Deutsche Bank AG · 2020. 12. 10. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Detailed considerations Revenue stability and strong cost control leaves DB on track to reach

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

ISSUER COMMENT9 December 2020

RATINGS

DEUTSCHE BANK AGLT Senior UnsecuredDebt Rating

A3

Outlook Stable

LT Junior SeniorUnsecured Debt Rating

Baa3

Baseline CreditAssessment (BCA)

ba1

Source: Moodys.com

Analyst Contacts

Michael Rohr +49.69.70730.901Senior Vice [email protected]

Yana Ruvinskaya +33.1.53.30.33.93Associate [email protected]

Peter E. Nerby, CFA +1.212.553.3782Senior Vice [email protected]

Laurie Mayers +44.20.7772.5582Associate Managing [email protected]

Ana Arsov +1.212.553.3763MD-Financial [email protected]

Deutsche Bank AGFranchise stability and continued cost control will helpsupport DB's credit profile

On 9 December 2020, Deutsche Bank AG (DB, A3/A3, stable, ba11) hosted its secondInvestor Day since it announced its most radical shift in strategy. We continue to seethe bank as being on track to achieving the majority of the plan's targets, in particularwith regard to the proposed de-risking and cost-cutting measures. If DB completes itsfundamental restructuring on target by end-2022, and maintains sound capital and liquiditymetrics, its restructuring will be credit positive for bondholders. DB’s progress to date wasreflected in the 3 November change in outlook on the bank’s ratings to stable from negative.

DB maintains 2022 revenue targets, lowers cost guidance. DB expects group revenueto arrive at around €24.4 billion in 2022, virtually unchanged from the earlier €24.5 billiontarget. This includes a cumulative negative revenue effect of €1.2 billion during the remainingrestructuring period, largely owing to lower global interest rates. Success in execution and,therefore, reaching its 2022 targets will rely less on DB's ability to rebuild and stabilize 'CoreBank'2 revenues given the strong performance achieved in 2020, in particular in the InvestmentBank (IB). DB expects adjusted costs3 to arrive at €16.7 billion in 2022, down from its earliertarget of €17.0 billion, a credit-positive. Moreover, DB will have booked around 85% of itstransformation-related charges by year-end 2020, alleviating earnings strain in 2021 and 2022.

Slower leverage ratio build as regulatory buffers improved and CRU wind-down slows.At group level, DB has lowered its guidance for the group leverage ratio to 4.5% from 5.0% by2022. While we expect loan growth in the Core Bank to offset growth in leverage exposures bysimultaneously lowering liquidity reserves, the higher overall leverage will be largely driven bythe bank's CRU4 shrinking at a slower pace than initially estimated. Post 2022, we anticipatethe bank's leverage ratio to grow towards the original 5.0% target in light of regulatory inflationin the run up to 'Basel 4'.

Loan loss charges will stay elevated, but diversified loan book will help mitigate undueearnings strain. For 2021, DB expects loan loss charges to drop slightly from the anticipated2020 charge-off level of 41 basis points (bps) of gross loans. A larger relief is expected for 2022(25-30 bps), anticipating the global coronavirus pandemic to recede. We believe these targetsare realistic in light of the banks diversified and Germany-focused loan book.

Solid capital and liquidity continue protecting bondholders. DB maintained its guidanceof a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of above 12.5% by 2022 ('around' 13%) andduring the ongoing restructuring (Q3 2020: 13.3%). In addition, and although expected toshrink over the next two years, DB's €253 billion liquidity reserve substantially mitigates therefinancing risks associated with its more confidence-sensitive wholesale market funding.

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Detailed considerationsRevenue stability and strong cost control leaves DB on track to reach intermediate goalsDB's 2022 revenue guidance of around €24.4 billion deviates little from the earlier guidance of €24.5 billion. However, the revised revenuetarget has seen a change in composition of underlying growth drivers, with franchise improvements in the Investment Bank (IB) targetedto bring in the bulk of the planned growth (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1

DB's execution success only partially relies on revenue growth2022 revenue plan (December 2020 guidance versus December 2019), € billion

~24.5

~(1.2)

~0.2

~0.1~0.6

~0.2

~24.4

2022 revenue plan(Dec 2019)

Interest rateimpact

Funding costs Passing throughnegative rates

Franchiseimprovements

(Investment Bank)

Franchiseimprovements

(Other corebusinesses)

2022 revenue plan(Dec 2020)

Additional mitigation measures

- Sustaining current unsecured spreads

- Additional balance sheet optimization

- Additional repricing measures

Sources: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service

Despite planned franchise improvement effects such as increased target client focus, credit and emerging markets flow as well as fundinginitiatives for IB clients, DB still expects the IB's revenue base to decline from the level to be achieved in 2020 (DB's estimate is €9.2billion for 2020 whilst the 2022 guidance is €8.5 billion). Instead, the Corporate Bank (CB) and the Private Bank (PB) are expected tobring in net revenue growth of €300 million each and achieve a 2022 revenue base of €5.5 billion and €8.3 billion, respectively. AssetManagement (AM) revenue is expected to remain largely stable around current levels (€2.3 billion by 2022). We consider the revenuegrowth targets in CB and PB as somewhat ambitious, in particular considering the persistent ultralow interest-rate environment and thehighly uncertain, yet recovering, macroeconomic environment.

Despite the challenging macroeconomic backdrop during the first nine months of 2020, DB reported total 'Core Bank' revenue of €18.6billion (Exhibit 2), up 8% year-over-year (+7% excluding specific items). The higher-than-anticipated revenue growth more than offsetthe negative effects of persistently ultralow interest rates and constrictions to the perimeter of its business activities as a result of itsrestructuring efforts. At the same time, adjusted costs declined 4% to €13.8 billion (Exhibit 3), as the bank reaped the benefits of 2019cost-reduction measures and continued to contain costs. The swift rundown in the bank’s operating cost base helped restore its operatingleverage. This is a major leap forward from DB’s previous restructurings, in which it suffered greater revenue attrition and did not generateany additional operating leverage. The slightly revised targets do not change the overall picture.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 9 December 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Franchise stability and continued cost control will help support DB's credit profile

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Exhibit 2

DB's revenue plan does not look overly ambitious...Group revenue, € million

Exhibit 3

...and the bank's cost base will shrink further, supporting positiveoperating leverageGroup adjusted costs, € million

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2017 2018 2019 9M 2020 ann. 2022 plan

IB CB PB AM

Notes: 9M 2020 numbers have been annualized. Segments displayed above refer to thefour Core Bank segments only. 2022 plan reflects DB group-level target (including the CRUand the Corporate Center) as implied by current guidance.Sources: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2017 2018 2019 9M 2020 ann. 2022 plan

IB CB PB AM

Notes: 9M 2020 numbers have been annualized. Segments displayed above refer to thefour Core Bank segments only. 2022 plan reflects DB group-level target (including the CRUand the Corporate Center) as implied by current guidance.Source: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service

This progress, if sustained, will continue putting DB on track to improve key underlying performance metrics and achieve its ambitionof an 8% post-tax return on equity (RoE) by 2022. Although not reaching the return levels of several of its higher-rated peers, DB looksset – after many years – to substantially and sustainably improve its group-level return on assets as measured by its total leverageexposures (Exhibit 4) and its return on risk-weighted assets (RWAs, see Exhibit 5). This is despite DB now guiding for higher leverageexposures and higher RWAs.

Exhibit 4

Estimated pretax return on assets (leverage exposure) by segmentExhibit 5

Estimated pretax return on risk-weighted assets by segment

-1.2%

-0.8%

-0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M 20ann.

Target

(Corporate &) Investment Bank New Corporate Bank

Private (& Commercial) Bank GROUP

Note: Target means DB group-level target as implied by current guidance.Sources: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service estimates

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M 20ann.

Target

(Corporate &) Investment Bank New Corporate Bank

Private (& Commercial) Bank GROUP

Note: Target means DB group-level target as implied by current guidance.Sources: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service estimates

DB’s ambitious and so far successful revamp of its more volatile capital markets earnings streams remains vulnerable to setbacks in thecontinuously volatile operating environment expected for large parts of 2021 and likely beyond. As acknowledged by DB managementand reflected in its 2022 revenue plan for the IB, it will be a challenge for DB to sustain the revenue base of its fixed income-centricbusinesses, while also growing its corporate banking and private banking franchise in extremely uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

However, the bank’s ability to sustain and grow portions of its revenue base during restructuring – including through the initial stagesof the coronavirus pandemic and in part thanks to a strong performance of the IB – has meaningfully reduced the need for aggressivegrowth to meet 2022 revenue goals (Exhibit 6). This leeway is credit positive in uncertain times for business expansion.

3 9 December 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Franchise stability and continued cost control will help support DB's credit profile

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Exhibit 6

DB is on track for 2022 revenue goals even while contending with coronavirus falloutCore Bank revenue by segment versus 2022 target level, in € billion

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

LTM Q3 2019 LTM Q3 2020 2020 outlook 2022 plan

Corporate Bank Investment Bank Private Bank Asset Management

~0.1% CAGR

Notes: LTM = Last twelve months; Exhibit only displays Core Bank revenue by segment and excludes other group revenue (€0.8 billion LTM Q3 2019 and -€0.3 billion LTM Q3 2020). Othergroup revenue is expected to be negative by around -€0.5 billion for 2022E.Sources: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service estimates

Slower leverage ratio build as regulatory buffers improved and CRU wind-down slowsFor 2022, DB targets a leverage ratio of 4.5% (Q3 2020: 4.1%5), retreating from earlier plans to reach a leverage ratio of 5.0%, whichwould have closed the long-standing gap with some of its peers (Exhibit 7).

Exhibit 7

DB's leverage will remain high when compared with its closest peersTier 1 leverage ratios of Global Investment Banks (GIBs), as of Q3 2020

7.4%7.0%

6.9% 6.8%6.8%

5.6% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2%

4.8%4.5% 4.4%

4.1%4.5%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

baa1 a2 a3 baa1 baa1 baa2 a3 a2 baa2 a3 baa2 baa1 ba1 ba1

MS JPM BAC GS CITI CS* UBS* HSBC^ BCS** RBC SG^^ BNP DB*** DB 2022Target

Tier 1 Leverage ratio Median leverage ratio (5.5%)

Notes: Tier 1 leverage ratio for US banks is the supplemental leverage ratio (SLR).*UBS and CS leverage ratios reflect Common Equity Tier plus Low Trigger Additional Tier 1 and High-Trigger Additional Tier 1 securities. For the computation of the leverage ratio, the Swissregulator allowed for a temporary exclusion of cash at central banks until 01 January 2021. The ratios shown here do not include this benefit.**Barclays (BCS) leverage is reflective of the spot UK leverage ratio.***DB Q3 2020 leverage exposure includes certain central bank balances (“Euro-based exposures facing Eurosystem central banks”) that could normally be excluded following theEuropean Central Bank's decision (EU) 2020/1306 until 27 June 2021. Excluding these items, DB's leverage ratio would have been 4.4%. DB's 2022 target includes these central bankbalances.^HSBC's Q3 2020 leverage exposure already excludes the aforementioned items since the bank did not provide sufficient disclosures to perform a similar adjustment.Sources: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service

The lower leverage ratio targeted for 2022 largely results from two effects:

1. A higher leverage exposure residing within the bank's CRU (€51 billion instead of €10 billion by 2022) driven by DB's intention topreserve economic value of the assets included and, therefore, a longer expected duration of the assets and hedging of relatedrisks; and

2. Higher loan growth in the Core Bank, albeit the reduction in cash buffers will most likely largely neutralize the net effect on DB'sleverage exposures.

4 9 December 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Franchise stability and continued cost control will help support DB's credit profile

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

The lowering of the leverage ratio target also reflects the bank's improved distance to regulatory requirements, mainly resultingfrom its now lower G-SIB buffer requirement and regulatory easing targeted to combat the short-term effects from the coronaviruspandemic on banks' capital and leverage ratios.

The downsizing of the CRU continued during 2020, in particular with regard to deleveraging (leverage exposures declined to €90billion, from €177 billion in Q3 2019). CRU risk-weighted assets (RWAs) declined 30% year-over-year to €39 billion, including €25billion of operational risk RWAs. For 2022, DB aims to reduce the CRU's RWAs to €32 billion (unchanged versus prior target) andthe unit's leverage exposures to €51 billion, the latter guidance constituting a meaningful increase from the earlier 2022 target ofapproximately €10 billion of leverage exposures. Also, the revised guidance sees €80 billion leverage exposures staying in the CRU byyear-end 2020, a €30 billion increase versus the original plan6.

The cost of downsizing the CRU to its current size has been limited to slightly below 2% of the unit's risk-weighted assets from July2019-to-date. However, we would expect additional reductions to become harder to realize and hence become more expensive inrelative terms, keeping the CRU straining DB's earnings over the next two years.

Loan loss charges will stay elevated, but diversified loan book will help mitigate undue earnings strainThe global coronavirus outbreak has driven a sharp rise in loan loss charges in 2020, ending a decade of benign credit conditions andeating into DB's underlying profit-generation capacity. But the bank has been able absorb these additional charges thanks to its better-than-anticipated revenue generation and a reduced operating cost base. Moreover, DB's most important customers have leeway tocope with the coronavirus crisis without quickly becoming over-indebted, which will support asset quality and mitigate earnings strains.More than half of DB’s gross loan balances stem from its home domicile of Germany, where corporate and household debt were at59% and 54% of GDP, respectively, as of the end of 2019, among the lowest levels in Europe.

During the first nine months of 2020, cost of risk rose materially to 47 bps (annualized; against gross loans) from 15 bps in 2019 but isstill below peaks in past crises (Exhibit 8). For 2020, and based on expected loan balances at year-end, DB anticipates loan loss chargesto arrive at 41 bps of gross loans. For next year, DB expects loan loss charges to remain elevated (we estimate a range of 30-40 bps ofgross loans) before dropping towards 25-30 bps in 2022, still above the 2019 level (17 bps).

Exhibit 8

Loan loss charges are up significantly in 2020, and will only retreat graduallyGross loans (€ billion) and loan loss charges/gross loans (%, RHS)

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M 2020ann.

2020E 2021E 2022E

Gross loans LLC/Avg. gross loans

Source: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service estimates

Sound capital and strong liquidity continue protecting bondholdersLike other European banks, DB also benefited from governments' and regulators' coordinated response to the COVID-19-inducedcrisis, including IFRS9 transitional arrangements; the accelerated implementation of the European Union’s ‘Quick Fix’ to the CapitalRequirement Regulation 2 (CRR2); and the ability to meet part of its Pillar 2 capital requirements with other capital instruments such asAdditional Tier 1 (AT1) or Tier 2 capital, all of which supported the bank's capital ratio.

DB expects to be able to offset future regulatory headwinds from the final implementation of Basel 3 rules (adding approximately€45 billion or 10-15% to its RWA base by 2024), which will allow it to manage its capital position around current levels. Including

5 9 December 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Franchise stability and continued cost control will help support DB's credit profile

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

an 11-basis-point benefit to its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio during Q2 2020 from the aforementioned relief measures,DB reported a CET1 capital ratio of 13.3% for the third quarter of 2020, down slightly from 13.6% as of the end of 2019. For 2020,we expect the CET1 ratio to stay above the 12.5% minimum level and fluctuate around 13% over the next two years, in-line withmanagement guidance.

In addition to its solid capitalization, high balance-sheet liquidity remains a comparative, credit-positive strength of DB. DB's liquidityreserve stands well above requirements stipulated by the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), which stood at 151% as of the end ofSeptember 2020 (net buffer: €76 billion). Although some of DB’s excess liquidity is likely to be consumed by its anticipated balance-sheet expansion to support its and the government's efforts to mitigate the negative effects of the coronavirus pandemic; i.e., loangrowth, we believe that the bank will keep a strong liquidity buffer safeguarding its credit profile. At the same time, reducing some ofits excess liquidity will help reduce the negative carry associated with holding cash at central banks. DB has also taken up €34 billion ofthe European Central Bank's TLTRO III7 facility, which it will also extend to the economy, likely further reducing the burden on its profitand loss from holding a high cash proportion.

Segment detailsThe Corporate Bank (CB) is now expected to display compound revenue growth of 1% during the 2018-22 restructuring period, loweredfrom 3% in earlier plans. DB aims to build on its strong Global Transaction Banking (GTB), cash management and securities servicesfranchises, as well as grow payment fees from its platforms. Costs are expected to remain virtually flat in 2021 before they drop off moremeaningfully in 2022, as DB will retain client-facing staff and continue to invest in its franchise, in particular in merchant payments andESG client solutions. Revenue growth will be supported by focusing on the aforementioned growth areas, as well as passing on negativeinterest rates and implementing account fees to partly compensate for interest-rate headwinds in the Euro area.

The Investment Bank (IB) is targeted to achieve 3% compound revenue growth (was 2%), with a decrease expected during the2020-2022 period8. Based on its strong 9M 2020 performance that was driven by stronger-than-anticipated client retention; rising clientconfidence and resulting market share (re)gains; as well as a rise in Top100 institutional client revenue, the achieved higher revenue basemakes it easier for DB to achieve its goals over the next two years. The IB's profitability should further benefit from the announced cost-cutting measures over time, of which parts will have to be reinvested into technology and infrastructure in order to maintain leadingpositions in Credit, FX, as well as in FIC in Asia Pacific and EMEA.

The Private Bank (PB) will continue to suffer from the lower interest rate environment. Compound revenue growth is expected to remainflat over the 2018-22 period, unchanged from the revised target set out in December last year. For PB, it will remain key to extract synergiesfrom the integration of the DB franchise with former Postbank; converting low-margin deposits into fee-producing investment productsthrough collaboration with asset and wealth management, as well as the CB; and increase fee and commission income through repricing.

Asset Management revenues are expected to display a higher compound annual growth rate of 2% during the same aforementionedperiod (up from 1%). The higher growth target takes account of higher asset valuations, in particular in equity markets. However, DBwill have to contend with continued strain on margins within the asset management industry in general, e.g., shift to passive, fintechcompetition, geographic wealth shifts and aims to do so by focusing on growth opportunities in Asia and product innovations surroundingkey investor interests, such as ESG. The unit aims to extract a further €150 million of gross cost synergies by 2022, moving its cost-to-income ratio to below 70% (DWS target: below 65% in 2021).

The Capital Release Unit (CRU), DB's key wind-down segment, has been able to downsize at a quicker pace than we originallyanticipated. As eluded to earlier, the relief to capital from reducing the unit's RWAs has largely been achieved (DB only targets another€6 billion RWA reduction until 2022). However, and although slower than initially planned, the CRU will remain an important factorin containing the bank's leverage exposures, with another €40 billion reduction to €51 billion envisaged by 2022. This could be usedfor business growth to support revenue targets going forward, in particular for DB customers seeking advice and support during thecoronavirus pandemic.

6 9 December 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Franchise stability and continued cost control will help support DB's credit profile

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Related researchCredit Opinion

» Deutsche Bank AG

Issuer In-Depth Reports

» Deutsche Bank AG: Rapid restructuring progress and clean balance sheet set bank on stable course to complete strategic overhaul

» Deutsche Bank AG: Sweeping revamp of business model will be credit positive when and if achieved

» Scenario analysis: Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG

Sector In-Depth Reports

» Global Investment Banks’ 2021 Outlook is stable – Diversification, strong capital and liquidity counter pandemic effects

» Global Investment Banks – Europe: Q3 2020 Update: Robust investment banking, lower loan loss charges support profit and capital

» Global Investment Banks – US: Q3 2020 Update: Capital rises and provisions drop, improving peers' resilience amid economicuncertainty

» Banks – Global: Biggest banks are better set to withstand COVID-19 stress than banks as a whole

» Global Investment Banks: Strong liquidity insulates creditors against large wholesale funding exposures

» Global Investment Banks: Estimated profit hit in coronavirus shock scenario should not take toll on capital

Issuer Comments

» Q3 2020: Positive operating leverage boosts 'Core Bank' profitability as restructuring progress gains traction

» Q2 2020: Regained strengths in core businesses help offset coronavirus disruption

» Restructuring progress supports DB's asset performance

» Continued strong execution and client retention will help support DB's credit profile

» Discontinuation of merger talks with Commerzbank resets the focus to standalone execution and strategic options

» Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG: Merger talks have no immediate rating implications

Last Rating Action

» Moody's affirms Deutsche Bank AG's ratings, changes outlook to stable

Banking System Outlook

» Germany

Rating Methodology

» Banks methodology

To access any of these reports, click on the entry above. Note that these references are current as of the date of publication of thisreport and that more recent reports may be available. All research may not be available to all clients.

7 9 December 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Franchise stability and continued cost control will help support DB's credit profile

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Endnotes1 The ratings shown in this report are DB’s deposit rating/senior unsecured debt rating, outlook, and Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA).

2 This includes the following segments: PB = Private Bank; CB = Corporate Bank; IB = Investment Bank and AM = Asset Management and excludes the CapitalRelease Unit or CRU and Corporate & Other.

3 As per DB definition. Excludes transformation-related charges and the impact of the global prime finance transfer to BNP Paribas.

4 CRU = Capital Release Unit.

5 DB's Q3 2020 leverage exposure includes certain central bank balances (“Euro-based exposures facing Eurosystem central banks”) that could normally beexcluded following the European Central Bank's decision (EU) 2020/1306 until 27 June 2021. Excluding these items, DB's leverage ratio would have been4.4%.

6 This excludes approximately €15 billion of retained exposures as part of the BNP Paribas transfer in global prime finance.

7 Targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) as provided by the European Central Bank and subject to certain conditions. The third TLTROprogramme consists of a series of seven targeted longer-term refinancing operations, each with a maturity of three years, starting in September 2019 ata quarterly frequency. Borrowing rates in these operations can be as low as 50 basis points below the average interest rate on the deposit facility over theperiod from 24 June 2020 to 23 June 2021, and as low as the average interest rate on the deposit facility during the rest of the life of the respective TLTROIII.

8 This is based on last twelve months Q3 2020 numbers.

8 9 December 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Franchise stability and continued cost control will help support DB's credit profile

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

© 2020 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND/OR ITS CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURECREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MATERIALS, PRODUCTS, SERVICES AND INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S(COLLECTIVELY, “PUBLICATIONS”) MAY INCLUDE SUCH CURRENT OPINIONS. MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAYNOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEEMOODY’S RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY’SINVESTORS SERVICE CREDIT RATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, ORPRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS, NON-CREDIT ASSESSMENTS (“ASSESSMENTS”), AND OTHER OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTSOF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS ORCOMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S ANALYTICS, INC. AND/OR ITS AFFILIATES. MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DONOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOTAND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS ANDPUBLICATIONS DO NOT COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS ANDOTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLISHES ITS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDYAND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS, AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESSAND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS OR PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENTDECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BYLAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHERTRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANYFORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM ISDEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK.

All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY’S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as wellas other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information ituses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However,MOODY’S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing its Publications.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for anyindirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use anysuch information, even if MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses ordamages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of aparticular credit rating assigned by MOODY’S.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatorylosses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for theavoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents,representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.

NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDITRATING, ASSESSMENT, OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY’S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.

Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (includingcorporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any credit rating,agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $2,700,000. MCO and Moody’sInvestors Service also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of Moody’s Investors Service credit ratings and credit rating processes. Information regardingcertain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold credit ratings from Moody’s Investors Service and have also publiclyreported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance —Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s InvestorsService Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intendedto be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, yourepresent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly orindirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as tothe creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.

Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’sOverseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a NationallyRecognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by anentity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registeredwith the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferredstock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for credit ratings opinions and servicesrendered by it fees ranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY250,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

REPORT NUMBER 1256388

9 9 December 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Franchise stability and continued cost control will help support DB's credit profile

Page 10: Deutsche Bank AG · 2020. 12. 10. · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Detailed considerations Revenue stability and strong cost control leaves DB on track to reach

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

10 9 December 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Franchise stability and continued cost control will help support DB's credit profile