determinants of 1950-1970 change in illegitimacy rates in developed populations

Determinants of 1950-1970 Change in Illegitimacy Rates in Developed PopulationsAuthor(s): PHILLIPS CUTRIGHT, KAREN POLONKO and GEORGE BOHRNSTEDTSource: Journal of Comparative Family Studies, Vol. 12, No. 4 (AUTUMN 1981), pp. 429-448Published by: Dr. George KurianStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41601258 .

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Determinants of 1950-1970 Change in

Illegitimacy Rates in Developed Populations*

PHILLIPS CUTRIGHT** KAREN POLONKO*** GEORGE BOHRNSTEDT****

Measures of illegitimacy in developed populations are routinely reported (United Nations, 1975a: 112-115) but documented explanations of differences in national trends or levels are not offered. This paper tests explanatory factors drawn from several models of illegitimacy for their impact on change in post World War II (WW II) age specific annual rates (illegitimate births per 1000 nevermarried, divorced and widowed women) in developed populations.

Figures 1 and 2 display 1950, 1960 and 1970 illegitimate birth rates for women age 15-44, Dicennial changes among women 15-44 are quite similar to those for younger women who, of course, most heavily influence the rates for all ages. Figure 1 shows two classes of populations with a 1950 early (defined below) average age at marriage. Predominantly English speaking populations are on the left side and other populations are on the right. Data for 1950 late age (defined below) at marriage nations are in Figure 2.

Figure 1 shows a distinct upward trend in 7 of the 13 early marriage nations with substantial variation in the magnitude of the change. New Zealand has the highest rates in all years, with the United States a distant second, Australia and England and Wales had 1970 rates only slightly below those of the United States. Among predominantly English speaking populations, only Canada maintained a rather stable rate. Among the remaining early age at marriage nations both Sweden and Denmark show sharp increases after 1960, while Hungary shows a marked decline. There is a great deal of variation in 1970 rates among early marriages nations that is not related to the level of their 1950 rate.

Figure 2 shows 1950, 1960 and 1970 rates in populations with a late 1950 average age at marriage. These nations, as a group, have lower rates than early marriage populations in all years, but they vary greatly in their levels and 1950-1970 change. For example,

♦This study was supported by Indiana University, Bloomington, and by the Institute of Social Research of Indiana University. ♦♦Department of Sociology, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana 47405, U. S. A. »♦♦Department of Sociology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242, U. S. A. *♦** Department of Sociology, Institute of Social Research, Indiana University Bloomington, Indiana 47405, U. S. A.



430 Journal of Comparative Family Studies

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Austria maintains a high rate in all years, while Portugal and Norway converge to a common level in 1970 from sharply different 1950 levels. Other nations tend to have stable and lower rates. The central problem is whether theoretically relevant measures can explain the 1950-1970 change in age specific rates. Two models are used as sources of relevant predictors.



Determinants of 1950 to 1970 Change "-Populations 431

Figure 2 Illegitimacy trends: Late marriage populations

MODELS OF ILLEGITIMACY Normative Models

The first normative model is cultural relativism and it claims that different populations vary in norms about nonmarital sex and social stigma on illegitimate childbearing. Thus, Christensen (1960) explained national differences in terms of conformity to socially approved norms, a view shared by Vincent (1961: Chapter 1), Gill, (1961), Croog, (1952), Myrdal, (1944), and Hankins, (1932). This view also suggests that illegitimate birth rates will be stable over time because change in norms governing stigma and permissiveness is gradual (Tomasson, 1976). This perspective is not easily tested, but does suggest that annual illegitimacy rates at time 1 be included in analyses of rates at a later point in time to better assess the impact of dynamic factors on change over time.




A second normative model links two lines of empirical work: (1) studies of the relationships between community and family instability and illegitimacy, and (2) studies of economic growth, the status of women and illegitimacy.

The first studies relate illegitimacy to community disorganization. High rates of family disruption weaken ties to primary and secondary groups. Because of loss of community social control, populations no longer conform to the norm of legitimacy (Davis, 1939; Malinowski, 1930) by restricting nonmarital sex. High rates of family instability are used to explain higher rates of illegitimacy among poor women in contrast to all others, and also to explain higher rates among blacks than whites in the United States (Myrdal, 1944; Frazier, 1939; Reed, 1934).

A related set of studies concludes that illegitimacy rates will decline if high economic growth rates lead to increased economic opportunities for women and low income men. As male incomes increase and opportunities for women expand, social controls limiting illegitimacy will increase (Freshnock and Cutright, 1979a; Cutright, 1971b; Rodman, 1966; Goode, 1961; 1960).

While normative models provide valuable insight for interpretations of national differences in stability of illegitimacy rates over time, and differences in rates among subgroups within populations, they are not directed to the task of explaining change in national rates.

Sociodemographic Models

Stimulated by the Davis and Blake (1956) discussion of intermediate causes of fertility, social demographers focus on sexual activity, birth control, and the probability that marriage will legitimate out-of-wedlock pregnancies. This perspective also includes variables from socioeconomic theories fertility related to alternative role opportunities for unmarried women (Kelly and Cutight, 1980; Freshnock and Curtright, 1979a; Kelly, 1978; Hartley, 1975). Only one multivariate cross national empirical study of change in illegitimacy rates for developed countries exists (Cutright, 1971a; Table 2; 1971b).

Following Matras (1965), Cutright divided the countries (see appendix Table A) by age at marriage. Matras reasoned that in most developed countries, whose period of transi- tion from high to lower fertility was accompanied by a late average age at marriage, but had since returned to earlier marriage, the return to early marriage was possible because of effective birth control practices among married couples. Couples could now marry young and still have small families. In developed populations which lack effective birth control in marriage (Ireland is the classic example) marriage will be delayed to reduce family size.1

1. The belief that married couples in developed populations have equal ability to control fertility and that the Matras argument no longer applies is probably mistaken. A United Nations ( 1976) study shows large differences in the use of modern (pill and IUD) contraception and legal abortion among married women in developed populations. Also, the greater the use of traditional methods the higher the legal abortion rate. Late age at marriage populations, which tend to rely on traditional contraceptive methods, should also tend to have less effective control over non-marital coitus than other populations, other things being equal.



Determinants of 1950 to 1970 Change - Populations 433

Cutright (1971a: Table 2) demonstrated that in developed populations with a late 1950 average age at marriage, a 1950-1960 shift to earlier age of legitimate childbearing was positively related to increased illegitimacy, and he hypothesized that an increase in nonmarital coitus among younger women was the cause. Why is a downward trend in the age of legitimate Childbearing a likely proxy for an increase in sexual activity ? First, the increase in the marriage rate among younger women that accompanies declines in average age at marriage may change women's perception of the opportunity to legitimate by marriage before delivery an out-of-wedlock pregnancy. The perceived risk of becoming an unwed mother if pregnancy occurs is low, in contrast to earlier years. Second, younger women who did not have intercourse in earlier years because they had been perceived as "too young" to be appropriate sexual partners will, with a decline in the age at marriage, now be "old enough" to have intercourse. Older unmarried women should not be strongly influenced by the downshift in the age of legitimate childbearing. Cutrighťs proxy for detecting change in nonmarital coitus was change in the percentage of all legitimate births that were to wives under age 25. It is possible that change in the age of legitimate childbearing could be related to illegitimacy because the predictor measures change in effective birth control practice by older married women, but a measure controlling this variable (the marital fertility rate of wives 35-39) is included. It is not change in marital fertility rates of younger wives, but the downshift in the age of mothers of legitimate children that is seen as an indicator of change in nonmarital coitus.

Kelly and Cutright (1980) and Cutright (1971a; 1971b) state that declines in the marital fertility rate (MFR) at ages 35-39 should be due to more effective use of birth control rather than to other causes, and that new methods of contraception, more effective use of older methods, and easier access to legal abortion, should have some impact of nonmarital fertility as well. This hypothesis is consistent with Cutrighťs (1971a) results in both early and late marriage strata and with the explanation of Shorter el al. (1971) that the common decline in marital and illegitmate fertility rates in Europe between about 1880 and 1940 was caused by increased use of birth control.

Cutright (1971b) expected, and found that high 1950-1960 rates of economic growth reduce illegitimacy. He suggested this occured because the probability of legitimation is partially due to economic conditions known to influence marriage rates (Simon, 1974; Basavarajappa, 1971 ; Silver, 1965), and marriage often legitimates infants conceived out-of- wedlock (Kelly, 1978; Cutright, 1972: 403-71. Whelan, 1972) thus reducing the number of illegitimate births.

We use Cutrighťs definition of age at marriage and replicate his analysis by including his three independent variables. However, we include a measure of women's status, and

Consider that as late as 1970, U. S. white wives aged 40-44 reported that 56 percent of live births in the 1965-69 period were unwanted (Teitelbaum, 1972: Table 8), despite the widespread use of effective contraception. If we take fertility at ages 40-44 as representing levels of (largely) unwanted births, we find that only 1 of 10 nations with a late 1950 age at marriage had a 1950 marital fertility rate ages 40-44 as low as the 1950 U. S. rate. In 1950 the late 1950 marriage stratum's MFR 40-44 rate was 1.6 times greater than the mean MFR level in the early marriage stratum and the ratio increased to 2.3 by 1970. Thus, in both 1950 and 1970, early and late age at marriage populations clearly differed in the level of very late marital fertility and, probably, in the level of unwanted marital fertility as well due to less effective use of birth control in late age at marriage populations.




make other changes noted below. If Cutrighťs variables continue to work, the fact that they are proxy measures well removed from the intermediate cause they are intended to measure will either suggest that they are fairly good measures of the given intermediate cause, or tap an other intermediate cause. In either case they would merit additional study because they would be the only indicators of proven reliability and strong predictive power available.

Freshnock and Cutright (1979b) demonstrate that community differences in availability of roles other than motherhood have similar affects on both marital and illegitimate fertility in the United States. This may also be true across populations. Blake (1974: 1965), Presser (1971) and Scanzoni (1975) have argued that motivation to control fertility comes, in part, from women's participation in non-familial activities such as school and work outside the home, and that comparison of women's and men's status should be related to the availability of such alternatives. As the status of unmarried women improves, they should be less vulnerable to sexual exploitation and better motivated to prevent out-of- wedlock pregnancy.

Finally, most developed populations with an early age at marriage in 1950 should be more vulnerable to change in illegitimacy rates than populations that maintained a late age at marriage in 1950 because the former have been separated from traditional marriage and birth-control practices for a longer time. One available measure of the stability of family life and conformity to traditional norms is the crude divorce rate which, in 1950 had a mean of 4.3 and 2.8 per 1000 population in early and late age at marriage populations, respectively; by 1970 the mean early stratum rate had climbed to 6.0, while the mean late stratum rate had declined to 2.4 per 1000 population.

Both normative and sociodemographic models are consistent with Goode's (1961: 917-8) view: "It is the community. . .that maintains conformity to or diviation from the norm of legitimacy." There are no individual level models that empirically explain differential rates of illegitimacy within or between national populations (Pauker, 1969).

A Two Stage Model of Illegitimacy Rates

Table 1 orders explanatory factors from the several perspectives discussed above into a two stage model. In general, background factors underly the intermediate causes, so called because they are between the background factors of sociological interest and the illegitimacy rate. Before any background variable can affect the rate it must impinge on one or another of the intermediate causes of the illegitimacy rate.

The first stage consists of background factors that are divided into two classes - cultural and sociodemographic. Norms, values and beliefs about behaviors directly related the intermediate causes and, thus to illegitimacy dominate the cultural factor. The sociodemographic cluster includes factors that have somewhat less direct effects on intermediate causes. For example, positive economic change effects marriage rates and, thus, legitimation of out-of-wedlock conceptions. The sociodemographic factor also includes measures subject



Determinants of 1950 to 1970 Change- - Populations 435

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to direct social policy impact, for example, ease of access to birth control (whether contraception or abortion), as well as the status of women and the economy. Of the two types of background factors, the cultural cluster may be the less vulnerable to policy shifts and less likely to change of the short run. In contrast, the sociodemographic factors are vulnerable to relative sharp short run change, e. g., legalization of abortion and rapid shifts in unemploy- ment rates.

Before any background factor can affect the illegitimacy rate it must operate through one or another of the intermediate causes. While norms on proper age of first coitus will have some effect on the incidence and prevalence of non-marital coitus at a given age -

(especially among younger women)other background factors probably also play an important role. Norms and knowledge about the use of birth control will affect the level and effective use of birth control, but the availability and type of methods available will also effects birth control practice. Stigma against unwed mothers is believed by many to effect the likelihood of legitimation of out-of-wedlock conceptions that are not aborted, but economic conditions, and community social controls enforcing the norms stigmatizing unwed motherhood as well as norms about non-marital cohabitation and childbearing outside legal marriage may also play a role in legitimation.

If one had perfect measures of change in the intermediate variables, the amount of change in illegitimacy should be well predicted, even though knowledge of the background factors that account for change in the intermediate causes was totally unknown. In this research we have a measure of background causes (and intermediate causes) as they operated to produce different levels of illegitimacy among populations in 1950 - the 1950 rate. Lacking specific data on change in 1950-1970 coital activity, birth control and legitimation, we substitute Cutrighťs proxy measures of change, and include a direct measure of change in women's status. While our operational test of the two stage model is incomplete, it is further down the multivariate path than prior work.

Method

Earlier tests of the sociodemographic model (Cutri ght, 1971a; 1971b) suffered methodological defects. First, only the general illegitimacy rate (illegitimate births per 1,000 unmarried women aged 15-44) was used as a dependent variable. Age-specific rates, used comparatively, would have increased confidence in the results. Second, only change scores between 1950 and 1960 in both independent and dependent variables were used, thus ignoring the causes of national differences in the level of the rate of illegitimate births. Third, a measure of women's status was not included. Fourth, his analyses of all populations (both early and late age at marriage strata) failed to include a measure to test the net impact of being in one stratum or the other on illegitimacy change. Fifth, results were reported in terms of explained variance (R%1) but failure to adjust R1 to account for degrees of freedom exa- ggerated the fit of the predictors to the dependent variable (Goldberger, 1964: 217). We correct these deficiencies.

To capture the effects of a given population's 1950 norms governing illegitimacy rates on its 1970 illegitimacy rates, 1950 illegitimacy rates are included as a proxy for the



Determinants of 1950 to 1970 Change*^ Populations 437

relevant cultural and normative order around 1950. Including this lagged dependent variable allows assessment of the stability of age-specific illegitimacy rates over time; also the effects of the other independent variables are then net of the normative order at the earlier point.

This method has methodological as well as theoretical appeal; several articles have questioned the use of gain or change scores (Bohrnstedt, 1969; Cronback and Furby, 1970; Werts and Linn, 1970) because initial standing is usually correlated negatively with the change variables. Rather than computing the gain score, the recommended procedure is to construct a residual change score that is the difference when the observed value of the variable at time 2 is subtracted from the predicted value of the variable at time 2, from the equation relating time 2 to time 1 rates. Because residual change scores are uncorrelated with levels at time 1, they indicate the effect of change in independent variables on illegitimacy rates.

We measured illegitimacy rates in 1950 and 1970. The twenty-year interval allows the autocorrelation term (i. е., the correlation between illegitimacy rates at time 1 and time 2) to drop to levels where the influence of other predictors can reasonably be expected to appear. Also, members of an age group at time 1 are no longer members of the same age group at time 2.

We show borderline levels (p<.10) of significance because researchers should not remove measures of potential value that fail to reach to .05 level from future studies for reasons due solely to small sample size. Small sample size, especially when 1950 age at marriage strata are examined separately, should moderate the impulse to generalize results to prior or future time periods, or to other populations not represented in this work. Still, our use of statistical tests for significance provides a check on the impulse to see "high" correlations and regression coefficients as significant when, in fact, they are not.

DATA

Included are every developed population with age-specific illegitimacy rates in 1950 and 1970 (see Cutright, 1971b: Table A for 1950 rates and Table A below, for 1970 rates). Comparable data for less developed populations do not exist. This does not limit the value of this study: analysis of illegitimacy in nations with low levels of fertility control, inadequate vital statistics, or radically different living arrangements from those found in most developed populations requires measure that usually are not applicable to studies of developed populations. See, for example, Goode (1961) and Curtight el al. (1976).

Dependent Variables

The 1970 illegitimacy rate is the number of illegitimate births in 1970 per 1,000 single, widowed and divorced women grouped by ages 15-44, 15-19, 20-29, and 30-39. The rate is perferable to the illegitimacy ratio (the number of illegitimate births per 1,000 total births) because the rate is not directly influenced by changes in the percentage of women married at a given age, or marital fertility rates (Kumar, 1969; Cutright, 1972: Appendix A).




(Appendix A in this article lists sources for the dependent variable.) Rates are labeled as 1950 or 1970 even though the actual year of measurement usually is the year of a national census, which often was 1951 or 1971.

Independent Variables The 1950 illegitimacy rate uses the same age groups as the 1970 rate, and is the number

of illegitimate births in 1950 per 1,000 unmarried women.

Gross national product per capita is labeled GNP/C and is standardized to 1958 GNP/C, is lagged one year behind the date of the measure of illegitimacy, and is adjusted for inflation. In 1958 (the year used by the United Nations as a baseline) each population had a score of 100, so 1969 levels are in terms of growth relative to 1958 GNP within each population. This measure is preferable to direct comparisons of GNP/C levels expressed in United States dollars because it measures economic growth within populations. The lack of com- parability in exchange rates or levels of living attached to equal dollar changes among nations makes comparison of GNP/C in dollars across nations of dubious value (Silk, 1975). Because all nations have a common time 1 level of 100 we did not residualize this predictor.

Change in the percentage of legitimate births to wives under age 25 is a residual change score constructed from 1970 and 1950 data, labeled "legitimate under age 25." This is Cutrighťs proxy for change in coital activity.

Change in marital fertility per 1,000 wives aged 35-39, labeled "MFR 35-39," is a proxy for changes in use of birth control and is calculated in the same manner as the previous predictor. This variable, too, is a residual change score. Cutrighťs proxy is used because measures of change in birth control by unmarried (or married) women do not exist.

Female status is a residual change in the ratio of female to male students at the third educational level - roughly, above level of high school graduate in the United States (Blake, 1974: 146). The variable is Labeled "female student residual."2

In analyses of all populations, we controlled for early age at marriage in 1950 to test whether this indicator was empirically related to later changes in illegitimacy rates. A population was classified as early if, in 1950, fewer than 60% of women aged 20-24 had never married. The 13 early-marriage populations were coded 1; all others are 0. The correlations of this dichotomous variable with other variables are nearly identical to those found when we substituted the exact percentage of never-married women.

Expected Relationships Between Variables Cultural relativists would expect illegitimacy rates at time 1 to be the best predictor

of rates at time 2 because the normative order that governs illegitimacy changes slowly.

2. Change in the difference between young men and women in participation in the nonagricultural labor force is an attractive alternative measure. Unfortunately the data are not available for all countries and all years. See Mauldin and Berelson (1978: Appendix B: Status of Women) for discussion of indicators of the status of women.



Determinants of 1950 to 1970 Change- • • Populations 439

Normative theorists would predict that gains in the status of women and rapid economic growth should reduce illegitimacy.

Sociodemographic research hypotheses are specific to developed populations and refine expected effects by age at marriage stratum. With cultural relativists, social demographers would expect illegitimacy rates to hold positive correlations over time. However, social demographers would not attribute these correlations solely to the influence of norms about nonmarital sex or social stigma (Hartley, 1975; Cutright, 1972; Freedman, 1963; Davis, 1955).

Social demographers predict that increases in MFR 35-39 (the proxy for birth control) and increases in the proportion of legitimate births to wives under age 25 (the proxy for the sexual activity of unmarried women discussed earlier) will increase illegitimacy rates, while also predicting that high economic growth will decrease illegitimacy because if facilitates legitimation of pregnancies begun out-of-wedlock and declining illegitimacy will accompany increases in the status of women because alternative roles increase the opportunity costs of unwed motherhood. Finally , populations with an early age at marriage in 1950 are expected to be more likely to experience large changes in illegitimacy between 1950 and 1970 because they are subject to more rapid change in behaviors related to illegitimacy (e. g., cohabitation in marriage-like dyads, Trost, 1978) than late age at marriage populations.

table 2

Mean and Standard Deviations of Variables in Analyses of 1970 Illegitimacy Rates, by Age at Marriage in 1950a

1950 Marriage Age

All Early Late Countries Marriage Marriage

Variables Year Mean S.D. Mean S.D. Mean S.D.

Illegitimate 1950 12.7 6.7 14.1 5.3 10.8 8.0 Aged 15-44 1970 15.4 10.4 19.3 10.9 10.3 7.4




1969/1958 GNP per capita (1958 = 100) 1969 161.0 32.7 160.3 42.0 161.9 16.0

m Means of all residualized predictors are about zero; standard deviations are available from the senior author.




In populations with a late age at marriage in 1950, the mean rates of illegitimate births were about the same in 1950 and 1970. Mean illegitimacy rates are higher in the populations with an early rather than a late age at marriage (Table 2) in all age groups, in both 1950 and 1970, and are highest in 1970. Values of 1969 relative to 1958 GNP/C, by age at marriage stratum, are similar.

All Populations The bottom row of the upper panel in Table 3 shows that for age groups 15-44,

20-29, and 30-39, less than half the variation in 1970 illegitimacy rates in all 23 populations was related to the rates in 1950. Comparisons of R~2 (where R~2 is the multiple correlation adjusted for degrees of freedom) with the zero-order explained variance (r2) due to 1950 rates alone shows substantial gains in every age group, demonstrating that changes in illegitimacy rates are powerfully affected by the other predictors.

table 3 Beta Coefficients and Explained Variance of Variables Regressed on 1970 Illegitimacy

Rates by Age of Mother: All 23 Populations and 13 Populations with Early 1950 Age at Marriage.

Age at Marriage Age of Mother Stratum and

Independent Variables 15-44 15-19 20-29 30-39

All Populations (N - 23)

Beta Coefficients 1950 Illegitimacy Rate .60a .70a .54a .72a Female Student Residual -.29a -.30a -.32a -.36a Change in GNP/Capita -.42a -.27a -.46a -.53a 1950 Early Marriage Population (1 = Early) .35a .27a .37a .31a

Explained Variance All Predictors (R~2) .79a .83a .78a .83a 1950 Illegitimacy Rate (r2) .48a .68a .43a .40a

Early Marriage (N - 13)

Beta Coefficients 1950 Illegitimacy Rate .51a .72a .40a .31a Female Student Residual -.40a -.42a -.47a -.62a Change in GNP/Capita -.49a -.32a -.54a -.60a


a- p < .05



Determinants of 1950 to 1970 Change -Populations 441

The absolute size of beta coefficients reflects the relative importance of veriables in each equation. In Table 3 they show that the 1950 illegitimacy rate had the strongest net effects in all four equations, followed by change in GNP/C in three of four equations. Betas for the female student residual and early age at marriage are similar in size and significant in all equations. All betas are in the predicted direction.

In analyses of all 23 populations, introducing either MFR 35-39 or legitimate births to wives under age 25 (or both) did not increase the explained variance, in contrast to Cutrighťs finding for all populations' 1950-1960 change. Deletion of female students and GNP/C and substitution of the two marital fertility measures sharply lowered explained variance.

Populations with an Early 1950 Age at Marriage Among countries with an early 1 950 age at marriage the zero-order explained variance

(r2) in the lower panel of Table 3 shows that the relationship of 1950 to 1970 illegitimacy rates is much weaker than the relationship in late age at marriage populations (see Table 4). Among women 30-39 only 15% of the variance in 1970 levels is related to 1950 levels; the highest 1950-1970 illegitimacy rate correlation is among teenagers. The importance of determinants other than the 1950 normative order on 1970 rates is shown by the very large gains in R-2 when other predictors are added.

table 4.

Beta Coefficients and Explained Variance of Variables Regressed on 1970 Illegitimacy Rates by Age of Mother: 10 Nations with Late Age at Marriage in 1950

Age of Mother

Independent Variables 15-44 15-19 20-29 30-39

Beta Coefficients 1950 Illegitimacy Rate .84a .80a .87a .99a Legitimate Under Age 25 Residual .48a .40a .43a .20b

Explained Variance Both Predictors (R- 2) .92a .92a .91a .92a

Beta Coefficients 1950 Illegitimacy Rate .79a .64a .89a 1.06a Legitimate Under Age 25 Residual .62a .65a .46a .11 MFR 35-39 Residual .28a .27a .21a .01 Change in GNP/Capita -.05 .14 -.19a -.23a


a b - p < .05; - p < .10.




Age-specific beta coefficients show that the 1950 illegitimacy rate is the strongest predictor among teenagers only. GNP/C and female student change are significant in all equations and all variables take expected signs. Cutright also reported significant GNP/C effects in this stratum. He did not find significant effects of change in legitimate births under age 25; nor do we. He did find significant effects of MFR 35-39, while we found none.

Populations with Late 1950 Age at Marriage The bottom row of Table 4 shows that in this age at marriage stratum 1970 illegitimacy

rates have a strong dependence on 1950 rates, especially for women aged 30-39. As expected the 1950 normative order has a more lasting impact on behavior related to illegitimacy in this group of nations, than in the early marriage stratum.

We display two equations. The more parsimonious is in the top panel of Table 4. In this equation addition of residuals for the percentage of legitimate births to younger wives had the expected positive and significant effects: the equation increased explained variance well above that explained by the zero-order correlation of 1950 to 1970 rates, especially in the 15-44, 15-19, and 20-29 age groups.

A theoretically more interesting model (because it has more variables) is in the center panel of Table 4. The addition of MFR 35-39 and GNP/C to the two-variable equation significantly increased R~2 in all subgroups, and both measures had expected, significant effects on five of the eight coefficients. Increases in GNP/C reduced rates among women 20-29 and 30-39, while increases in MFR 35-39 were positively related to illegitimacy in all groups, and insignificant for women 30-39 only. Comparing the two panels reveals that the coefficients for the percentage of legitimate births under age 25 in the more complex equation remain significant for all groups except women 30-39, as expected.

The beta coefficients show that the illegitimacy rate in 1950 is the dominant predictor for women aged 30-39 and 20-29. However, legitimacy under age 25 is of equal size among teenagers, and clearly has a second rank among betas for women 15-44 and 20-29. Among women 30-39, GNP/C change is the only other significant variable. These results differ sharply from those found in analysis of populations with an early age at marriage. Clearly, it is useful to separate the two sets of countries, as social demographers have suggested, before analyzing the determinants of illegitimacy. The lower panel also finds in 8 of 12 cases, significant coefficients for Cutrighťs three variables.

DISCUSSION

Normative and sociodemographic models are supported, but our analysis indicates that 1970 differences in illegitimacy rates are not solely due to the 1950 normative order or any other single variable. Rather, national differences and changes are systematically and closely related to the 1950 normative order as well as to change in social, economic and demographic variables.

In the all 23 populations, as well as the 13 populations in the early age at marriage stratum, Cutrighťs proxy measures for legitimation of out-of-wedlock pregnancies (GNP/C



Determinants of 1950 to 1970 Change ••• Populations 443

growth) and the measure of change in the status of women (female students) are significant predictors of 1950 - 1970 change in all age-specific illegitimacy rates. The proxy for the 1950 normative order that fixed the 1950 illegitimacy rate (the 1950 rate) also has an independent and significant impact. In all 23 populations the impact of being an early 1950 age at marriage population was large and positive on 1950-70 change. All effects in the predicted direction and explained variance is high.

Predictably, effects of the 1950 normative order are stronger in populations that maintained a relatively late age at marriage in 1950. Nonetheless, in the late age at marriage stratum, the sociodemographic model predicts and finds significant and expected relationships between Cutrighťs proxies for the three main intermediate causes of change in illegitimacy - nonmarital coital activity, effective use of birgth control and legitimation of births conceived out-of-wedlock. The proxy measure for changing status of women has no effect on this stratum, a result that may mean that it does not properly measure changes in alternative occupational or sex roles for women in these more traditional countries. With continuing social change in this stratum, this measure may "work" in following decades while we may need a new measure of women's status and roles in the future before the theoretical concept will be adequately measured in early marriage nations (because some nations are approaching levels of near equality of enrollment, and may experience "ceiling" effects in the future).

Our empirical results closely fit those reported by Cutright (1971a: Table 2), despite our superior statistical methodology, new predictors, a different time period, and multiple age-specific groups for comparative study. The most consistent of Cutrighťs measures was GNP/C change. Whether this is a measure of nothing but the impact of economic growth on the probability of legitimating a premarital pregnancy cannot be answered. Per- haps unmarried couples in developed nations with high growth rates become better contra- ceptors, net of their practice in 1950, thus lowering illegitimacy. Similar questions apply to the proxy for changing coital rates, that empirically works so well in all analyses in the late marriage stratum, and consistently does not work in the early marriage stratum. Although nothing can be done immediately to get more direct measures of the intermediate causes of illegitimacy in all these nations, application of such models to time series data in certain nations is possible, and analyses of 1911 to 1974 annual change in age-specific illegitimacy rates in Sweden and Australia (Kelly, 1978) support the notion that thinking of illegitimacy in sociodemographic terms provides predictable, orderly results.

Our findings seem relevant to current differences among social scientists who theorize about human fertility. Most, like Cain (1972) and Turchi (1975), restrict analysis to married couples, whom economists believe make rational decisions about childbearing. In contrast, many social scientists believe that illegitimacy is largely irrational, or at least unplanned. Thus, aside from occasional efforts to discover a positive effect of AFDC benefits on illegitimacy (Freshnock and Cutright, 1979a; Moore and Caldwell, 1976; Weingarden, 1974), they have seen illegitimacy as qualitatively different from marital fertility.

Easterlin (1975), however, has argued that a broader socioeconomic theory of fertility should include illegitimacy. His theoretical framework explicitly incorporates noneconomic




variables and subjects illegitimacy to effects from the same social, demographic and economic variables that influence marital birth rates.

Recent work supports the view that both types of fertility are subject to common causes. Shorter el al. (1971) found that from around 1880 to 1940 both fertility rates declined together in European countries and they concluded that the diffusion of birth-control practices to both married and unmarried couples accounted for these trends. In a cross-sectional analysis Freshnock and Cutright (1971b) demonstrated that in 1969, across counties in the United States, age-and-race-specific marital and nonmarital fertility rates had similar relationships to several sociodemographic variables. Our cross-national, longitudinal study also shows that, among late-marriage populations, measures of marital fertility change are closely related to change in illegitimacy rates. The time may have come to reconsider the value of both sociological (Goldberg, 1975; Hartley, 1975; Scanzoni, 1975; Goldscheider, 1971; Blake, 1965; Freedman, 1963; Davis, 1955; Notesteim, 1953) and economic interpretations that include both economic and noneconomic variables (Easterlin, 1975) in fertility studies. Broadening the theoretical base should improve our understanding of illegitimate and marital fertility rates in a given year, and how they change over time.

APPENDIX A

Never-married, aged 20-24, and marital status of other age groups : Data on European populations arc from United Nations (1975a: Table IV. 3). Data on other populations are from United Nations (1973a, Table 26, 1963a: Table 34, 1962: Table 13, 1958: Table 6), U. S. Bureau of the Census (1973: Table 203: 1963: Table 177). Unpublished data are from the United Nations Statistical Office.

Legitimate births in 1970 to mothers under 25 years and to mothers aged 35-39: United Nations (1975b: Tables 23 and 33). Unpublished data are from United Nations Statistical Office. Data on legitimate births in 1950 are from United Nations Demographic Yearbook (various years).

Illegitimacy rates : 1950 data are from Cutright (1971b: Appendix Table A; 1972: Table 2). 1950 New Zealand rates were inflated to include Maori births. Data for 1970 on Australia, New Zealand, West Germany and the United States are from national statistical yearbooks. Our thanks to Lincoln Day for assistance with Australian and New Zealand statistics. Australian data exclude aborigines in all years. Other nations from United Nations (1975a: 141 ; 1975b: Tables 23 and 33; 1973a: Table 26 and unpublished data from the U. N. Statistical Office.

Percentage female of third-level students in 1950 and 1970: United Nations (1967 : Table 37, UNESCO, (1969: Table 2. 12; 1973: Table 4.1), United Nations (1963b: Table 63).

Gross National Product per capita: United Nations (1973b: Table 174). Divorce rates per 1000 currently married women from United Nations (1975a: 69) for European nations,

and unpublished data from U. N. Statistical Office or national statistical yearbooks.



Determinants of 1950 to 1970 Change- -- Populations 445

table A.

Illegitimacy Rates in 1970 per 1,000 Women, by Age of Unwed Mother and 1950 Age at Marriage Stratum

Age of Mother

Population 15-44 15-19 20-29 30-39

Early Age at Marriage, 1950 Australia 24.8 16.5 43.8 43.5 Belgium 6.4 2.5 14.1 13.4 Canada 17.7 14.4 25.9 16.4 Denmark 22.2 17.3 35.7 20.2 England 23.0 14.7 41.2 31.8 Finland 8.7 6.1 13.2 7.5 France 14.9 5.4 24.1 19.9 Hungary 11.3 8.5 18.3 15.6 Japan 1.7 0.2 3.9 7.0 New Zealand 42.0 31.0 80.0 50.0 Scotland 20.9 12.3 40.5 28.4 Sweden 31.1 24.7 41.7 20.5 United States 26.4 22.4 37.8 20.3

Late Age at Marriage 1950 Austria 26.2 22.7 35.8 19.8 West Germany 11.7 8.9 17.6 12.0 Italy 4.1 2.4 6.0 7.8 Ireland 6.7 4.6 10.6 4.8 Luxembourg 7.8 3.5 15.1 13.9 Netherlands 4.5 3.0 7.5 8.2 Norway 16.5 13.1 23.1 12.8 Portugal 16.1 6.1 27.3 36.0 Spain 2.6 1.0 4.1 6.0 Switzerland 7.2 4.9 10.8 6.6

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determinants of 1950-1970 change in illegitimacy rates in developed populations

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