design build-protect-clients

37
1 There is no guarantee that the strategies set forth in this presentation will achieve their intended objectives LWI Financial Inc. (“Loring Ward”) is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Securities transactions may be offered through Loring Ward Securities Inc., member FINRA/SIPC B 13-018 (Exp. 2/15) Design | Build | Protect Putting Asset Class Investing to Work for You

Upload: better-financial-education

Post on 13-Jan-2015

415 views

Category:

Economy & Finance


0 download

DESCRIPTION

 

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Design build-protect-clients

There is no guarantee that the strategies set forth in this presentation will achieve their intended objectives LWI Financial Inc. (“Loring Ward”) is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Securities transactions may be offered through Loring Ward Securities Inc., member FINRA/SIPC B 13-018 (Exp. 2/15)

Design | Build | ProtectPutting Asset Class Investing to Work for You

Page 2: Design build-protect-clients

2

Page 3: Design build-protect-clients

3

Page 4: Design build-protect-clients

4

Page 5: Design build-protect-clients

5

Page 6: Design build-protect-clients

6

Page 7: Design build-protect-clients

7

Page 8: Design build-protect-clients

8

Helping & Protecting Family

Enjoying & Protecting Lifestyle

Planning Ahead

Creating Financial Comfort

Building aLegacy

Helping Children Income Needs Clarifying Vision Managing ResourcesWills and Power

of Attorney

Assisting Parents Leisure Planning Health Challenges Generating Income Estate Transfer

Funding Education Personal Health Managing Change Minimizing Taxes Charitable Giving

Retirement Transition Planning

Protecting Assets and Business

Life Transition Planning

Working with anAdvisory Team

Living Legacy

Financial Life Map

Page 9: Design build-protect-clients

9

Page 10: Design build-protect-clients

10

“Straw” Portfolio

Page 11: Design build-protect-clients

11

“Wood” Portfolio

Page 12: Design build-protect-clients

12 Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market.

“Brick” Portfolio

Page 13: Design build-protect-clients

13

Adam Smith

Frederich Hayek Paul Samuelson Merton Miller

Bill Sharpe Harry Markowitz

Page 14: Design build-protect-clients

14

How You Allocate Between Stocks & Short-Term Bonds

How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks

Your Comfort with Key

Risk Factors

Decisions

3

Page 15: Design build-protect-clients

15

1

Risks associated with investing in stocks potentially include increased volatility (up and down movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that investors cannot directly invest in. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of 1927 and kept invested through December 31, 2012. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Total returns in U.S. dollars. Long Term Government Bonds, One-Month US Treasury Bills, and US Consumer Price Index (inflation), source: Morningstar’s 2013 Stocks, Bonds, Bills, And Inflation Yearbook (2013); Fama/French Total U.S. Market Index provided by Fama/French from Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) data. Includes all NYSE securities (plus Amex equivalents since July 1962 and NASDAQ equivalents since 1973), including utilities.

Growth of $1 Jan. 1, 1927 – Dec. 31, 2012

How You Allocate Between Stocks & Short-Term Bonds

Page 16: Design build-protect-clients

16

How You Allocate Between Stocks & Short-Term Bonds1

Source: One-Month US Treasury Bills, Five-Year US Treasury Notes, and Twenty-Year (Long-Term) US Government Bonds provided by Ibbotson Associates. Six-Month US Treasury Bills provided by CRSP (1964-1977) and Merrill Lynch (1978-present). One-Year US Treasury Notes provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices (1964-May 1991) and Merrill Lynch (June 1991-present). Morningstar data © 2013 Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook (2013), Morningstar. The Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2013 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner& Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Assumes reinvestment of dividends. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk. Standard deviation annualized from quarterly data. Standard deviation is a statistical measurement of how far the return of a security (or index) moves above or below its average value. The greater the standard deviation, the riskier an investment is considered to be.

Risk and Rewards

Examined for Bonds1964–2012

Page 17: Design build-protect-clients

17

2 How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks

Page 18: Design build-protect-clients

18

World Market Capitalization$37.5 Trillion as of December 31, 2012

Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors. In US dollars. Market cap data is free-float adjusted from Bloomberg securities data. Many small nations not displayed. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks including foreign currency changes, taxes and different accounting and financial reporting methods.

Capitalization over time

($ trillions) Developed Markets Emerging MarketsFrontier Markets

Bloomberg Index Affiliation

How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks2

Page 19: Design build-protect-clients

19

Past Performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks including foreign currency changes, taxes and different accounting and financial reporting methods.

How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks

Source: Morningstar Direct 2013. Countries represented by their respective MSCI IMI (net div.). Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities in which investors cannot directly invest; they do not reflect the payment of advisory fees or other expenses associated with specific investments or the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting.

Ranking of Markets Around the World Ten-Year Performance in US DollarsAnnualized Returns Year Ending December 31, 2012

2

Page 20: Design build-protect-clients

20

How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks2

Page 21: Design build-protect-clients

21

3

The risks associated with investing in stocks and overweighting small company and value stocks potentially include increased volatility (up and down movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal.

Your Comfort with Key Risk Factors

SmallCompany

Stocks

GrowthCompany

Stocks

ValueCompany

Stocks

LargeCompany

Stocks

Total Stock Market

Increased Expected Returns

Decreased Risk and

Expected Returns

Page 22: Design build-protect-clients

22

Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. US value and growth index data (ex utilities) provided by Fama/French. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. International Value and Growth data provided by Fama/French from Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, StyleResearch, London Business School, and Nomura Securities data. MSCI EAFE Index is net of foreign withholding taxes on dividends; copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved. Emerging markets index data simulated by Fama/French from countries in the IFC Investable Universe; simulations are free-float weighted both within each country and across all countries.

Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Small company risk: Securities of small firms are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Emerging markets risk: Numerous emerging countries have experienced serious, and potentially continuing, economic and political problems. Stock markets in many emerging countries are relatively small, expensive, and risky. Foreigners are often limited in their ability to invest in, and withdraw assets from, these markets. Additional restrictions may be imposed under other conditions. Foreign securities and currencies risk: Foreign securities prices may decline or fluctuate because of: (a) economic or political actions of foreign governments, and/or (b) less regulated or liquid securities markets. Investors holding these securities are also exposed to foreign currency risk (the possibility that foreign currency will fluctuate in value against the US dollar).

Your Comfort with Key Risk Factors3

Page 23: Design build-protect-clients

23

The Key Academic Research

• Defining Value and Growth: Implications for Returns and TurnoverJim Davis and Inmoo Lee, Dimensional Fund Advisors (August 2008)

• The Anatomy of Value and Growth StocksFama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College – Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (September  2007)

• MigrationFama, Eugene and Kenneth R. French, Financial Analysts Journal (June 2007) Dissecting AnomaliesFama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College – Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (June 2007)

• Average Returns, B/M, and Share IssuesFama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; (May 2007)International Evidence of the Size EffectRizova, Savina, Dimensional Fund Advisors (August 2006)

• Multi-Factor InvestingFama Jr., Eugene F., Dimensional Fund Advisors (July 2006)

• The Value Premium and the CAPMFama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (March 2005)

Page 24: Design build-protect-clients

24

• The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and EvidenceFama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (August 2003)

• The Corporate Cost of Capital and the Return on Corporate InvestmentFama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College – Tuck School of Business; (April 1998)

• Value Versus Growth: The International EvidenceFama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College – Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (August 1997)

• Cross Section of Expected Stock ReturnsFama, Eugene and Kenneth R. French, Journal of Finance 47 (1992)

• Luck Versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund ReturnsFama, Eugene F. and French, Kenneth R., (December 14, 2009 )

• Mutual Fund Performance Fama, Eugene F. and French, Kenneth R.; National Bureau of Economic Research (June 30, 2008)

• The Cost of Active InvestingFrench, Kenneth R. (March 13, 2008)

• False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance:  Measuring Luck in Estimated AlphasL. Barras, O. Scaillet, and R. Wermers (July 2006)

The Key Academic Research

Page 25: Design build-protect-clients

25

• The Informational Efficiency of Stock PricesDavis, James L., Dimensional Fund Advisors (April 2006)

• Market Efficiency:  A Theoretical Distinction and So What?Markowitz, Harry M., Financial Analysts Journal (2005)

• The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its CriticsMalkiel, Burton G. Princeton University, CEPS Working Paper No. 91 (April 2003)

• Passive Investment Strategies and Efficient MarketsMalkiel, Burton G. Princeton University, Princeton University - Bendheim Center for Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (2003)

• Mutual Fund Performance and Manager Style Davis, James L., Dimensional Fund Advisors Financial Analysts Journal (January / February 2001 )

• Market Efficiency, Long-term Returns, and Behavioral FinanceFama, Eugene F., University of Chicago Graduate School of Business (February 1997)

• Asset Management: Active vs. Passive ManagementSinquefield, Rex A., Dimensional Fund Advisors (October 1995)

• The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945-1964 Jensen, Michael, The Journal of Finance (May 1968 )

• Efficient Markets Hypothesis Fama, Eugene F. ,University of Chicago (1965)• Behavior of Securities Prices — 1965 Samuelson, Paul , MIT (1965)• The Statistical Properties of Internationally Diversified Portfolios

Davis, James L., Dimensional Fund Advisors (September 2004)

The Key Academic Research

Page 26: Design build-protect-clients

26

• What Measures the Benefits of DiversificationStatman, Meir, Santa Clara University - Department of Finance and Jonathan Scheid, Loring Ward Advisor Services (May 2005) How Much Diversification is EnoughStatman, Meir Santa Clara University - Department of Finance (October 2002)

• Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk?

Campbell, John Y., Martin Lettau, Burton G. Malkiel and Yexiao Xu, Harvard University - Department of Economics , New York University - Department of Finance , Princeton University - Bendheim Center for Finance and University of Texas at Dallas - Department of Finance & Managerial Economics (March 2000)

• The Statistical Properties of Internationally Diversified PortfoliosDavis, James L., Dimensional Fund Advisors (September 2004)Several recent studies have cast doubt on the diversification benefits of

• The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and EvidenceFama, Eugene F., University of Chicago – Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (August 2003)

• What Measures the Benefits of DiversificationStatman, Meir, Santa Clara University - Department of Finance and Jonathan Scheid, Loring Ward Advisor Services (May 2005)

• How Much Diversification is Enough Statman, Meir Santa Clara University - Department of Finance (October 2002)

• Diversification and Portfolio Risk Harry Markowitz, University of Chicago (1962)

The Key Academic Research

Page 27: Design build-protect-clients
Page 28: Design build-protect-clients

28 The buying and selling of securities for the purpose of rebalancing may have adverse tax consequences.

Page 29: Design build-protect-clients

29

Rebalancing and a 50% Stocks/50% Bonds Portfolio

1993 – 2012

Data source: Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), January 2013. Past performance is no indication of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Bonds are represented by the SBBI Long-Term Bond Index. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities in which investors cannot invest and do not reflect the payment of advisory fees associated with a mutual fund or separate account. Returns assume dividend and capital gain reinvestment.Rebalancing does not guarantee a return or protect against a loss.

Page 30: Design build-protect-clients

30

For Illustration Purposes Only

Page 31: Design build-protect-clients

31

Average Investor vs. Major Indices 1992 – 2012

Average stock investor and average bond investor performances were used from a DALBAR study, Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB), 03/2013. QAIB calculates investor returns as the change in assets after excluding sales, redemptions, and exchanges. This method of calculation captures realized and unrealized capital gains, dividends, interest, trading costs, sales charges, fees, expenses, and any other costs. After calculating investor returns in dollar terms (above), two percentages are calculated: Total investor return rate for the period and annualized investor return rate. Total return rate is determined by calculating the investor return dollars as a percentage of the net of the sales, redemptions, and exchanges for the period. The fact that buy-and-hold has been a successful strategy in the past does not guarantee that it will continue to be successful in the future. S&P 500 and Fixed Income index returns do not include expenses and fees

Equities Behavior Gap = 3.96% Fixed Income Behavior Gap = 5.36%

Page 32: Design build-protect-clients

32

Page 33: Design build-protect-clients

33

Can Past Performance Predict Future Results? 10-Year Annualized Performance of 862 U.S. Equity Funds vs. S&P 500 1998–2007

Data source: Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), For illustrative purposes only. Mutual funds were placed in descending order of 10-year annualized performance, and subsequent 5-year performance assumes the same ordering as the 10-year period. The number of funds for the subsequent 5-year period represent existing funds from the 10-year period. Eligible universe is share classes of US Equity Open End mutual funds domiciled in the US with prospectus benchmark of the S&P 500, classified into the US Stock mutual fund asset class by Morningstar Direct with a ten-year annualized return as of Dec. 31, 2007 in Morningstar Direct.

Mutual fund universe statistical data provided by Morningstar, Inc.; Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is always the risk that an investor may lose money. S&P 500® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC 2012. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal.

Page 34: Design build-protect-clients

34

5 Years Later…

248 Funds Have Closed Their Doors

Page 35: Design build-protect-clients

35

5 Years Later, No Predictable Pattern of Performance5-Year Annualized Performance of 862 U.S. Equity Funds vs. S&P 500 2008 - 2012

Data source: Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), For illustrative purposes only. Mutual funds were placed in descending order of 10-year annualized performance, and subsequent 5-year performance assumes the same ordering as the 10-year period. The number of funds for the subsequent 5-year period represent existing funds from the 10-year period. Eligible universe is share classes of US Equity Open End mutual funds domiciled in the US with prospectus benchmark of the S&P 500, classified into the US Stock mutual fund asset class by Morningstar Direct with a ten-year annualized return as of Dec. 31, 2007 in Morningstar Direct.

Mutual fund universe statistical data provided by Morningstar, Inc.; Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is always the risk that an investor may lose money. S&P 500® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC 2012. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal.

Page 36: Design build-protect-clients

36

1. Design A Plan To Meet Your Life Goals

2. Build Your Plan Using Scientific & Academic Research

3. Protect Your Plan with a Disciplined and Structured Approach

In Summary

Page 37: Design build-protect-clients

37

Questions?

37