Depletion of the North Sea and its Significance for Western Europe

(a growing supply imbalance)

J. Peter Gerling & Hilmar RempelFederal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR),

Hannover, Germany

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Reserves• hydrocarbon quantities proven in fields• can be produced economically with current technologies

.

Resources• geologically identified hydrocarbons which can’t be economically produced under present conditions

• unidentified but expected hydrocarbons due to geological reasons in equivalent regions (yet to find)

Hereby we consider for resources as well as for reserves the recoverable amount

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Definitions

Area : 575.000 km2

Surrounding countries : UK, NO, DK, GE Water depth : avg. 70 m, max. 725 m HC provinces : Northern North Sea (Oil + G) Central North Sea (Oil + C + G)

Southern North Sea (Gas) NOT included : Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea

Atlantic marginIWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Basic data

Production history : Oil 1st discovery : 1969 (Ekofisk) Peak discovery : 19741st production : 1971Peak production : 2000Cum. production : 4.6 Gt (end of 2001)Reserves : 3.1 GtResources : 2.0 Gt

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Bild

Production history

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

North SeaOil Production

1970 1980 1990 20000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

DenmarkGermanyNetherlandsNorwayUK

Mt

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

North SeaCumulative Production and Reserves

1970 1980 1990 20000

2

4

6

8

10Gt

Cumulative Production

Reserves

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

North SeaCumulative Production, Reserves and R/P-Ratio

1970 1980 1990 20000

2

4

6

8

10

0

10

20

30

40

50Gt

Cumulative Production

Reserves

R/P

years

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

0

2

4

6

- 2

- 4

- 6

Gt

50 % depletion mid-point5

0%0

31.12.2001

Gt 10 100%

Resources

2 Gt

Reserves

3 Gt

Produced

5 Gt

production until2026 with anannual decrease of

6 %

4 %

2 %

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

North SeaProduction Profile and Giant Fields

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 20450

50

100

150

200

250

300

350Pr

oduc

tion

Mt/a

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

1050

Gia

nt F

ield

Dis

cove

ry in

Mt

forecastDepletion rate after 2001: 8.5 %

Reserve additions: 2002 - 2010: 100 Mt/a 2011 - 2025: 50 Mt/a

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

North SeaOil Consumption of Western Europe and EU

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Consumption WE Consumption EU

Mt

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0

10

20

30

40

50

Consumption WE Consumption EU Share WE Share EU

North SeaOil Consumption of Western Europe and EU

North Sea's Share to their Oil SupplyMt (%)

oil gas

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Production history : Natural Gas 1st discovery : 1965 (West Sole) Peak discovery : 19791st production : 1967Peak production : 2005 ??Cum. production : 3.0 T.m3 (end of 2001)Reserves : 4.6 T.m3 Resources : 1.7 T.m3

Bild

Production history

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Natural Gas Production

North Sea

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

50

100

150

200

250

Denmark Germany Netherland Norway UK

G.m³

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

North SeaCumulative Production and Reserves

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

2

4

6

8T.m³

Cumulative Production

Reserves

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

North SeaCumulative Production, Reserves and R/P-Ratio

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

2

4

6

8

0

20

40

60

80T.m³

Cumulative Production

Reserves

R/P

years

0

2

4

6

8

- 2

- 4

T.m³

50 % depletion mid-point4.65

0%0

31.12.2001

T.m³9.3 100%

Resources 1.7 T.m³

Reserves

4.6 T.m³

Produced

3.0 T.m³

production until2026 with anannual increase of

- 4 %

0 %

2 %

- 6 %

-2 %

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

100

200

300

400

500

600

Consumption WE Consumption EU

North SeaNatural Gas Consumption of Western Europe and EU

G.m³

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Consumption WE Consumption EU Share WE Share EU

North SeaNatural Gas Consumption of Western Europe and EU

North Sea's Share to their Gas Supply(%)G.m³

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Countries with oil reserves > 1 Gt

Strategic Ellipsecontaining ca. 70 % of world oil reserves

> 1 - 10 Gt> 10 - 20 Gt

> 20 Gt

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Countries with natural gas reserves > 1 T.m³

Strategic Ellipsecontaining ca. 70 % of world oil reserves

> 1 - 5 T.m³> 5 - 10 T.m³

> 20 T.m³

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

The Mediterranean - EUR of crude oil and NGL in Mt (Only countries with EUR > 200 Mt)

(database: end 2000)

...

A l g e r i a

E g y p t

L i b y a

T u n e s i a

Israel

Leba-non

I t a l y

F r a n c e

S p a i nPortugal

Switzerland A u s t r i a

T u r k e y Greece

Albania

SloveniaCroatiaBosniaHerzogo- vina

Hungary

Mace-donia

Romania

Ukraine

Bulgaria

R u s s i a

Geor- giaYugos-

lavia

S y r i a

Jordan

Saudi

Arabia

2,410

544

5,159

323

221Syria

A l g e r i a L i b y a

M o r o c c o

7,947

Cum.Production

Reserves

Resources

Moldova

1,302

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

The Mediterranean - EUR of natural gas in Gm³ (Only countries with EUR > 200 Gm³)

(database: end 2000)

E g y p t

T u n e s i a

Israel

Leba-non

I t a l y

F r a n c e

S p a i nPortugal

Switzerland A u s t r i a

Greece

Albania

SloveniaCroatiaBosniaHerzogo- vina

Hungary

Mace-donia

Romania

UkraineMoldova

Bulgaria

R u s s i a

Geor- giaYugos-

lavia

Jordan

Saudi

Arabia

Cum.Production

Reserves

Resources

Syria

A l g e r i a

L i b y a

M a r o c c o

729

1,334

T u r k e y

483Syria

2,4282,065

Cum.Production

Reserves

Resources

394

7,161

Pipeline-Network with Destinations and Refineries

Balkhash Sea-

Aral

Sea

SEA

CASPIAN

BLACK SEA

Issyk- Kul

H

I ND

UK U S H

K o

p e t d a g

K

y s y l k u m

Ka

r a k

um

P A M I R

T

I E N S C HA

N

E l b u r sZ a g r o s

C

u c

a

a

s

u

s

CPC

SOYUS

DRUZHBA

AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

U Z B E K I S T A N KIRGISISTAN

I R A NI R A Q

R U S S I AN F E D E R A T I O N

K A Z A K H S T A N

PAKISTAN

INDIEN

GEORGIA

U K R A I N E

KABUL

BISCHKEK

DUSHANBEASHGABAD

BAKU

TEHERAN

ERIEWAN

ASTANA

Boundaries

Capitals

LEGEND

Oil pipelinesGas pipelines

Oil refineries

Gas processing plants

Terminals

Oil fieldsGas fieldsGas-condensate fields

Oil pipeline projectsGas pipeline projects

0 500 km

TPP

PakistanPakistanPersian

Gulf

PersianGulf

Moscow

ChinaJapan

ChinaJapan

TAJIKISTAN

ASOVSSEA

S Ü D L. U R A L

Ceyhan(Mediter.Sea)

Turkey(Mediterranean Sea)

T U R K E Y

TIFLIS

WesternEurope

SE-EuropeTurkey

ARMENIA

H i g h l a n d o f I r a n

TASHKENT

from W-Siberia

AZER-BAIJAN

L o w e r C a u c a s u s

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Conclusions - Oil• North Sea is a mature oil province• peak production occurred in 2001• reserves underestimated ?• annual production decline will be

> 5 %• accordingly, western Europe‘s oil

import dependance will increaseIWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Conclusions - Natural Gas• North Sea is a mature gas province• annual production is still increasing• peak production in front - 2005 ?• production can be kept stable for

another 1 – 2 decades

• But: due to the increase in demand, western Europe‘s import dependance will rise

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Conclusions - External Supplies

• Russia (gas / oil)• Northern Africa (gas / oil)• Middle East (oil / gas?)• Caspian (oil / gas?)• Western Africa (oil)

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Gesamtpotential konventionelles Erdöl363 Mrd. t

Kum. Förderung

Reserven

Ressourcen

Stand: 31.12.2001

57

16

3333

146

23

55

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

Gesamtpotential konventionelles Erdgas425 Bill. m³

Kum. Förderung

Reserven

Ressourcen

Stand: 31.12.2001

65

24

1833

91 38

164

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

North SeaShare of world

Cons

umpt

ion

Cons

umpt

ion

Prod

uctio

n

Reser

ves

Resou

rces

Cons

umpt

ion

Cons

umpt

ion

Prod

uctio

n

Reser

ves

Resou

rces

0

4

8

12

16

20

W-Euro

pe

W-E

urop

e

%

Natural gasOil

IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

1930 1950 2000 20500

2

4

6

8

10

Mt/y

1968

1950

1962

1975

2000

depletionmid-point

11 y 14 y

17 y 20 y

12 y 14 y

16 y 5y

34 y 2217

cum. prod.up to 1930:c. 2 Mt

at 2050: remaining c. 4 Mtproduction c. 0.2 Mt

time

EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) 320 Mt (10 )produced as per 31.12.2000 255 Mt

remaining: reserves 50 Mt"yet to find" 15 Mt

on the basis of data from 305 oilfields

6

1950: post war boom 38 Mt 1.1 Mt 34 yrs. 233 yrs.1962: max. reserves 113 6.8 17 201968: max. production 89 8.3 11 141975: depletion mid-point 72 5.8 12 142000: current status 50 3.1 16 5

"yet to find" figures on the basis of current EUR

reserves production static lifetime ofreserves "yet to find"

2000

produced255 Mt

remaining65 Mt

EOR effective

German oil production 1930 - 2050

Supplemented after HILLER 1997