Conservative Research Department A-40to.

h-404

32 Smith Square Westminster suTIP Telephone 01-222 9511

KB/sgc Director:ALAN HOWARTH

Mr Derek Howe10 Downing StreetLondon SW1

CONFIDENTIAL 7th July 1981

PUBLTO OPINION BACKGROUND NOTE 71 fv,(The results from our latest Gallup 'tracking study conductedfrom 24th tc 30th June found no signs of an upsurge in support

ilfor the Social Democrats although support for the Conservative

Party has drifted slightly downwards and support for Labourslightly upwards. Support for a hypothetical Liberal-SocialDemocratic Alliance remains high at around one in three ofthe electorate. This finding which was used as a 'headline'for an M.O.R.I. poll published in the Evening Standard on2nd July 1981 is something that has been clear from bothpublished and private Gallup polls since the emergence ofthe Social Democrats.

We have over the last week had two opinion polls conductedin Warrington, both of which showed a sizeable Labour leadand the Conservatives in a poor third place.

D. K. Britto

7 00.

TONFID-7NTI

PUBLI: OPINION BACKGROUND NOTE 71

(produced 6th Suly 1981;

Introduction

The interviewing for our latest Gallup 'tracking' study was conductedfrom Sune 24th to June 30th and they found an 11% Labour lead comparedwith 5% in the previous week (conducted 16/22 June) and 8% in theprevious published poll (conducted 9/15 June) - these figurece erecalculated excluding don't knows. An M.O.R.I. poll published inthe Evening Standard on 2nd July and conducted from June 18th to 22ndfound an 8% Labour lead. The Gallup survey found 29% of :he electorateclaiming they would vote Conservative (31% claimed they would voteConservative in the M.O.R.I„,_ poll) , 40% claimed they would vote Labour(39% in the M.O.R.I. poll), 17% Liberal (1,6% in the M.O.R.I. poll)and 12% Social Democrat (12% in M.O.R.I. poll). The level of supportfor the Social Democrats in answer to this unprompted voting intentionquestion has remained stable at around 11/12 per cent since early May.

The M.O.R.I. poll published in the Standard also asked how electors

41,would vote if a Liberal-Social Democrat candidate was standing in 7,,nelection. They found 27% claiming they would vote Conservative (24%in our private Gallup study), 32% Labour (35% in our Gallup survey)and39% Liberal-Social Democratic (39% in our Gallup survey) - these figuresare calculated excluding don't knows. Although the Evening Standardused the fact the the Liberal-Social Democrats lead the other partiesin terms of voting intention when respondents were asked how theywould vote if a Liberal-Social Democratic oandidate stood as a headlinethis finding has been shown by Gallup surveys (both cublished andour private studies) since we started asking these questions. It mustbe remembered that this particular question involves asking resoondentshow they would vote if a candidate for a hypothetical Liberal-SocialDemocratic pary stood in a General Election, and as a resultdoes not provide the unbiased measure of support that the open-endedstandard voting intention question (considered above) provides.

The tables below show the level of support. for the main parties sfincemid-March from the three standard voting intention questions we ask

0in our Gallup weekly tracking studies.

707:N0- INTENT:ON ( tnol ;_:ding don ' 7 knows

2-(30 31 :1-,*• ei-13 l5/21 2=.177 2 Acr• 5;11 13/13

T:T=" 5 Ar-- .:,.r.,,7,, .r..,,,,. ... A pr 5 Nay May :qay:',/o ly,.:,/

:0 -,.7'/,-7 3; -.', :4

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, i%5/1('31 ,T,=r•8/13 15/21 %%/'")7%c Ar'''' 5,1'1_13/18 19/26 25 '..'1_av3/3

May :ir_ay 1.4,7.- Ju.r.:=, :1 ' -7' -6,;i1.-}el-j--,.,..- Ma.r6 Apr Apr Apr fkpr . 5 Xay v-v _

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:ters ' _

, , , ,cial. Demo- \r:4- ?nr:v. - _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _tial Democrati:• 41"';.-.7.era1 A1lr_c37 J.-,

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31 33 12 ....1-,,

L 28 '3.nt: Ic-Low;i: -',=nends22 23 17 ,c,..)13 ,,-, ,, 16 19 L918 19.1

P. Standard VotingIntention

The table on the following page shows on the basis used tc present

Gallup figures in the Daily Telegraph and by MOR: in :he Evening

standard the level of supbort for the main parties.

40

3

VOTING INTENTION

1979

(excluding don't

CON

knows)

LAB LIB SOCIAL OT=T7R LEAD

DEMOCRAT

May(GE) 43.9 36.9 13.8

5.5 ±7.0

13/18 June* 42.0 43.5 13.0

5.0 -9.0

1981

25/30 March 30.0 30.5 18.0 19.0 2.5 -0.5**31March/6 April 2 9.0 32.0 17.0 19.0 3.0 -3.0

8/13 April 30.0 34.5 14.0 19.0 2 .5 -4.5**

15/21April 28.5 37.5 17.5 15.0 1.5 -9.022/7 April 30.5 36.5 15.0 15.5 2 .5 -6.0

29 April/ 5 May 33.0 35.0 17.0 13.5 1.5 -2.0

6/11May 32.0 35.5 18.0 11.0 3.5 -3.5**

13/18 May 33.5 36.0 17.0 10.5 3.0 -2.5

19/26 May 31.0 38.0 15.5 12.0 3.5 -7.0

26 May/1June 30.0 36.0 18.0 13.0 3.0 -6.03/8 June 31.0 40.3 14.0 12.5 2.5 -9.09/15 June 29.5 37.5 18.0 12.5 2 .5 -8.0**16/22June 32.0 37.0 15.5 13.0 2 .5 -5.02 4/30 June 2 9.0 40.0 17.0 12.0 2 .0 -11.0

* First Gallup Post-Elec ion survey** Published Poll

3. Government Record

The latest study found a sharp fall in the level of approval for therecord of the Government - it fell from 29% approving the record ofthe government to date in the week 9/15 June to 23% in the week16/22June.

1979

GOVERNMENT RECORD

ApproveD sapprove Don't Know/0

13/18 June 34 41

1981

25/30 March 22 69

31Ma-rch/6April 26 65

8/13April 24 67

15/21April 25 65

2-%/27April )7 63

2 9 Aprll/S May 26 62 126/11May 29 60

13/18 May 30 57

926 May DB 60 I==6 May:fJune 27 61 123/8 June 26 60

9;15June 26 62

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a; :7-rcan, n- -. julv 1981

As we71 as the vot'ng 4nt-ntion quf.stions „consder,,,,d ==.bov.-) M.0.R2.lsc asked a number of questions atout the Latour 7atershc

M.O.R.2. asked r,.,sbondents which of the three canddate,,, for Labour'sdebuty ladersh'p they would back - Berm, Healey or Silkin -had a vote. They found:-

Berm

Al 7 _abour 7ot-rsTrade77r,'-n4st=4

1814Healey 58 57

Silkin

6None 10 3 9Don't know 10 I C2

M.O.R.T. also asked respondents about attitudes to :he personal

0qualities of Mrs Thatcher, Mr Foot, Mr Healey and Mr Berm. Figuresin brackets are comparable results from a survey conducted inAutumn 1980.

Attitudes to Leaders

•

Healey Senn Foot Thatcher

More honest .than .most politicians 30 124) 16 (13) 22 (23) 24 (25)

Down to earth -35 (36) ' 14 (1(1) 23 (28) 1.5 (21)Sometimes has rather

extreme views 11 (12) 52 (51) 22 (43) 33 (34)Will promise any - ,

ihnig to win votes 17 (IS) 27 (26) 20 (16) 30.(210' Ka th e r inexperi-

enced ' 4 • (7) S (9) 9 (17) 9 (10),Has a lot of per-

sonality 19 (25) 18 (18) 11 (21) 24 (25)Out of touch with

ordinary people , 12 (9) 22 124) 12 (10) 43 (50)Sincere ZS (2:)) 16 (13) 25 (30) 10 (22)Understands

Uritain's problems 42 (42) ' 19 (18), 29 (35) 27 (31)

Capable leader ..-._ ZS (32) II (10) IS (31) 28 (32)

Tt is significant tha= only about half as many people rP7r-' Toot ashaving extremist •iews now wh....n combar-d •pfth Autumn 1980.

N.0.?. (Daily Ma'1. 6th July 1987)

An N.O.F. nol1 conducted 'n Warr'ngton on July ls: and =nd 'cunt:hat 60% of electors claimed they would vote Latour, 29% Social-2)771oct, 7 0% Donsrva='7,=, and 1% for =th.=,r oart'=.

Mrs W' 77iams h!=.d been the Socil 53% ofel--tors claim.,d they would have vot,,d L=to,7-, 26% Sool ,I7 Pmr , orts

Mrs w'1 7 :71s), 10% 0,-,h=r7='v- and 7F<)for 0thpr

6

(Granada Television)

An M.O.R.I. poll conducted for Granada Television in Warringtonlte June found 57% of electors claiming they would vote Labour,27 Social Demorsrat, and 12% Conservative.

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