denver association of business economists luncheon · notable shifts in labor force participation...

Denver Association

ofBusiness

EconomistsLuncheon

January 16, 2019

Trends and Forecasts for Colorado’s Labor Market

Ryan GedneySenior EconomistLabor Market Information, CDLE January 16, 2019

• Colorado Labor Market Trends & Characteristics (Labor Force, Industry, Occupations, and Wages)

• Comparisons of Colorado to Rest of U.S.

• Short and Long-Term Industry and Occupational Projections

Labor ForceTrends &

Characteristics in Colorado

U.S. & Colorado: UnemploymentRate

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jan-

90Ja

n-91

Jan-

92Ja

n-93

Jan-

94Ja

n-95

Jan-

96Ja

n-97

Jan-

98Ja

n-99

Jan-

00Ja

n-01

Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10Ja

n-11

Jan-

12Ja

n-13

Jan-

14Ja

n-15

Jan-

16Ja

n-17

Jan-

18

U.S.

CO

Shaded areas denote period of U.S. recession throughout this presentation, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research

Reasons for Unemployment in Colorado (2000 – 2018)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey (CPS)

31%

43%

18% 19%

46%

29%

5%9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Shar

e of

Tot

al U

nem

ploy

ed

Job Losers

Reentrants

Job leavers

New entrants

Unemployment Duration in Colorado (2000 – 2018)


64%

44%

21%23%

8%15%

7%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Shar

e of

Tot

al U

nem

ploy

ed

Less Than 7 Weeks27+ Weeks

7-14 Weeks

15-26 Weeks

Over 60% of Unemployed Coloradans Received UI Payment During Recession, Now Under 20%

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Colorado unemployment benefits data/Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

62%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Une

mpl

oym

ent I

nsur

ance

Rec

ipie

ncy

Rat

e

(All

Prog

ram

Typ

es)

State Extended Benefits Program Expires

Emergency Unemployment CompensationProgram Expires

Colorado Unemployment Rate by Level of Educational Attainment (25 years & over)


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Less than a high school diploma

High school graduates, no college

Some college or associate degree

Bachelor's degree and higher

Colorado has the 5th Highest Share of State Population* with Bachelor’s Degree or Greater


*25 years and older - 2017

Colorado’s U-6* Rate Leveled Off in 2018;Elevated Compared to 2000


5.2%6.1%

9.5%10.4%

9.5%8.8%

7.9%7.3%

9.2%

13.7%

15.4%15.1%14.6%

12.5%

9.4%

7.9%7.3%

6.3% 6.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

*U-6 unemployment = total unemployed (U-3),+ all marginally attached workers,+ total employed part-time for economic reasons,as a percent of the civilian labor force + allmarginally attached workers

2018 Share of Involuntary Part-Time Workersat a Slightly Higher Rate Than In 2000


1.8%

5.7%

2.6%

CO

U.S.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Invo

lunt

ary

Part

-Tim

e as

Sha

re o

f Lab

or F

orce

Colorado’s Share of Employed Working Part-Time Ranges Between 16% - 21% Since 2000


16%

21%

CO17%

U.S.

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Notable Shifts in Labor Force Participation For Youngest & Oldest Cohorts Since 2000


55.4%

CO, Both SexesAges 16-19 41.8%

12.1%

CO, Both SexesAges 65+

24.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

18% of CO’s 16+ population in 2018were 65 and older12% of CO’s 16+

population in 2000were 65 and older

Prime-Age Labor Force Participation Recovering From Great Recession Decline


94.9%

92.9%

87.4%86.3% 86.0%

81.1%

77.5%78.9%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CO, Men

CO, Women

CO, Both Sexes

U.S. & Colorado: 16+ Labor ForceParticipation Rate


67.1%

62.7% 62.9%

74.5%

66.5%

69.2%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CO

U.S.

Colorado With Third Fastest Growth in Labor Force Since 2010

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Rank State Percent Growth in Labor Force Since 2010

1 Utah 16.7%

2 Texas 14.8%

3 Colorado 14.5%

4 Delaware 13.2%

5 Florida 12.9%

6 Nevada 12.5%

7 Idaho 12.3%

8 Massachusetts 10.4%

9 Arizona 9.9%

10 North Carolina 8.8%

N/A U.S. Average 6.1%

IndustryTrends &


U.S. & Colorado: Growth in NonfarmPayroll Jobs

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES)

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Jan-

90Ja

n-91

Jan-

92Ja

n-93

Jan-

94Ja

n-95

Jan-

96Ja

n-97

Jan-

98Ja

n-99

Jan-

00Ja

n-01

Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10Ja

n-11

Jan-

12Ja

n-13

Jan-

14Ja

n-15

Jan-

16Ja

n-17

Jan-

18

U.S.

CO

Colorado’s Rate of Job Growth Over PastEight Years Among Fastest in Nation

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Year # of Payroll Jobs Added

Over the Year Growth Rate and Rank

2011 37,000 1.6% 9

2012 54,000 2.4% 4

2013 69,000 3.0% 4

2014 83,000 3.5% 3

2015 78,000 3.1% 5

2016 61,000 2.4% 12

2017 56,000 2.2% 6

2018* 65,000 2.4% 6

Total 503,000 22.6% 3***Estimate**Only Utah (28%) & Nevada (24%) have a higher rate of job growth since 2010

Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth Since 2010 (by Area)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Nov 2018, seasonally adjusted

Greeley

Fort Collins

DenverCO

Colorado Springs

Boulder

Grand JunctionPueblo

U.S.Non-Metro

CO

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Job Growth Uneven Across State Past 10 Years; 23 Counties Yet to Regain 2008 Emp. Levels

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) – Q2 2008 to Q2 2018

Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth Since 2010 (by Goods-Producing Industries)


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Mining & Logging

Construction

AllIndustries

Manufacturing

Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth Since 2010 (by Service-Providing Industries)


-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Leisure &Hospitality

Information

AllIndustries

Trade,Transp., & Utilities

Prof. & Bus.Services

Government

Edu. &Health

Services

FinancialActivities

OtherServices

Colorado Industry Subsectors With Largest Absolute Gains in Employment Since 2010

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) – Q2 2010 to Q2 2018

13,207

16,692

18,342

20,302

22,769

24,686

36,607

42,217

56,470

56,661

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Construction of Buildings

Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods

Social Assistance

Hospitals

Administrative & Support Services

Educational Services

Specialty Trade Contractors

Ambulatory Health Care Services

Food Services & Drinking Places

Professional & Technical Services

62% of CO’s employmentgrowth has come fromthese 10 subsectors

+Green bar = high paying (>125% of 2018 Q2 AWW of $1075); blue bar = medium paying (75-125% of AWW); orange bar = low paying (<75% of AWW)

Projected Annual Average Growth Rates by Industry Supersectors (2019 – 2021*)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

1.0%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

1.8%

1.9%

2.0%

2.0%

2.1%

2.3%

2.3%

4.7%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

Public Administration

Manufacturing

Other Services

Financial Activities

Leisure & Hospitality

Information

Trade, Transp., & Utilities

Edu. & Health Services

Total, All Industries

Prof. & Bus. Services

Nat. Resources & Mining

Construction

*Technically, the newest short-term projections (released 1/10/19) are for 1st quarter 2019 to 1st quarter 2021

Projected Fastest Annual Average Growth Rates by Industry Subsectors (2019 - 2021)


3.0%

3.1%

3.2%

3.2%

3.5%

4.2%

5.1%

5.6%

6.3%

8.6%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises

Prof., Sci., & Technical Services

Real Estate

Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods

Subsector 518*

Specialty Trade Contractors

Construction of Buildings

Couriers and Messengers

Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction

Warehousing & Storage

*Internet Service Providers, Web Search Portals, and Data Processing Services

Colorado Substate Areas Used in 2 and 10-Year Projections

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Projected Annual Average Growth Rates by Colorado Substate Area (2019 - 2021)


0.8%

1.3%

1.8%

1.9%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.1%

2.3%

2.3%

2.6%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

East. & South. CO

Pueblo

Northwest CO

Colorado Springs

Boulder

Grand Junction

Southwest CO

Colorado

Denver

Fort Collins

Greeley

Largest Projected Employment Gains by Industry Sector and Substate Area (2019 - 2021)


Area Industry Sector ProjectedEmployment Change

Boulder Prof., Scientific, & Technical Services 1,580

Colorado Springs Prof., Scientific, & Technical Services 2,040

Denver Construction 10,590

Fort Collins Health Care & Social Assistance 1,460

Grand Junction Health Care & Social Assistance 710

Greeley Construction 1,380

Pueblo Health Care & Social Assistance 300

Eastern & Southern CO Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing/Hunting 230

Northwest CO Accommodation & Food Services 1,040

Southwest CO Construction 1,000

Post-Recession CO Wage Growth is a Mixed Bag – Depending on Year and Series Used

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; QCEW/CES; Consumer Price Index (CPI)

0.7%

3.8%

3.1%

2.6%

2.1%

0.8%

2.0%

4.6%

2.8%

3.4%

0.4%

3.8%

2.7%

0.6%

4.5%

3.2%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

Change in Private Hourly Wage

Change in Private Average Weekly Wage

3.7%

1.9%

2.8%

OTY Change in CPI **

2.8%

1.2%

3.4%

2.7%

*2018 annual avg. private hourly wage thru November (CES); 2018 annual avg. private average weekly wage thru 2nd quarter (QCEW) **Over the year percentage change in annual consumer price index (all urban consumers) for Denver-Aurora-Lakewood

2.8%

Real CO Private Average Weekly Wage Growth of 2%+ Has Occurred Just 7 Times Since 1983

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) ; Consumer Price Index (CPI)

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001 20

0220

0320

0420

05 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 20

1520

1620

17 2018

*

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

* 2018 growth in private average weekly wage thru 2nd quarter (QCEW)

Colorado Has Experienced Fast Nominal Wage Growth Compared to Rest of U.S. in 2017-18

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; QCEW/CES

Top 10 States OTY Growth in 2017Private AWW

Washington 5.4%

West Virginia 5.0%

California 4.9%

Idaho 4.6%

Colorado 4.5%

Delaware 4.0%

New York 4.0%

Massachusetts 3.8%

Indiana 3.8%

Minnesota 3.7%

Top 10 States OTY Growth in 2018*Private Hourly Wage

Wyoming 6.1%

Hawaii 5.9%

West Virginia 5.4%

Wisconsin 5.0%

Colorado 4.6%

South Carolina 4.5%

Maryland 4.5%

Washington 4.1%

Michigan 3.9%

Vermont 3.7%*Annual avg. private hourly wage thru November (CES)

OccupationTrends &


Colorado Employment in the Largest Occupations (2017 Estimates)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)

40,580

41,420

41,560

44,300

46,480

49,340

50,270

58,910

63,770

86,720

0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000 90,000

Business Operations Specialists,All Other

Secretaries & Administrative Assistants,Except Legal, Medical, and Executive

General & Operations Managers

Office Clerks, General

Customer Service Representatives

Registered Nurses

Waiters and Waitresses

Cashiers

Combined Food Preparation and ServingWorkers, Including Fast Food

Retail Salespersons

20% of Coloradopayroll employment is classified in these10 occupations

+Peach bar = occupations that pay less than the 2017 median hourly wage of $19.66; blue bar pays more than the median hourly wage of $19.66

Colorado’s Highest Paying Occupations* That Don’t Require College Attendance


Occupational Title 2017 Employment Median Hourly Wage

Detectives & Criminal Investigators 1,750 $39.92

Electrical Power-Line Install & Repair 2,450 $39.12

Elevator Install & Repair 520 $37.92

Power Plant Operators 680 $35.73

Police & Sheriff’s Patrol Officers 9,440 $35.38

Claims Adjuster/Examiners/Investigators 3,950 $34.90

Wellhead Pumpers 620 $31.48Control & Valve Install & Repair, ex.

Mechanical Door 1,190 $30.22

Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, ex. Technical and Scientific Products 28,700 $29.97

Construction & Building Inspectors 2,280 $29.28*Does not include managers or supervisors; occupations with estimated employment of 500 or more in 2017

Colorado has the 5th Highest Concentration of STEM* Occupational Employment in U.S.


*STEM = computer/mathematical; architecture/engineering; life, physical, and social science; postsecondary teachers in aforementioned fields; managers of aforementioned fields; sales engineers; and sales representatives of technical and scientific products

Colorado’s Highest Paying Non-Management STEM Occupations


Occupational Title 2017 Employment Median Hourly Wage

Petroleum Engineers 1,410 $70.57

Sales Engineers 3,270 $59.43

Aerospace Engineers 2,370 $58.23

Materials Scientists 150 $56.75

Computer Hardware Engineers 3,630 $56.20

Software Developers, Systems 13,260 $55.34

Computer Network Architects 4,960 $53.07

Computer & Information Scientists 410 $51.42

Engineers, All Other 2,580 $50.43

Software Developers, Applications 27,210 $49.29

Colorado’s Highest Concentration Occupations* Relative to Rest of U.S. by Substate Area


Area Occupational Title Location Quotient

Boulder Physicists 39.32

Colorado Springs Religious Workers, All Other 11.66

Denver Mining & Geological Engineers 6.62

Fort Collins Conservations Scientists 28.78

Grand Junction Roustabouts, Oil & Gas 16.52

Greeley Service Unit Operators, Oil/Gas/Mining 30.51

Pueblo Telemarketers 10.69

Eastern & Southern CO Graders & Sorters, Agricultural Products 24.68

Northwest CO Grounds Maintenance Workers, All Other 17.25

Southwest CO Forest & Conservation Technicians 16.26*Occupations with estimated employment of 100 or more in 2017

Vast Majority of Projected Fastest Growing Occupations* in Construction (2019 - 2021)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

557

641

841

951

1,381

1,665

1,669

2,499

3,012

3,112

3,189

4,431

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Sheet Metal Workers

Roofers

HVAC Mechanics and Installers

Cement Masons & Concrete Finishers

Construction Managers

Plumbers, Pipefitters, & Steamfitters

Operating Engineers & Other Constr. Equip. Oper.

Supervisors of Construction and Extraction Workers

Electricians

Carpenters

Software Developers, Applications

Construction Laborers

Projected Annual Openings (2019-21)*Occupations with at least500 projected annual openings

Occupational Groups with Largest Projected Number of Annual Openings (2017 - 2027)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

12,437

14,261

13,472

19,157

19,938

18,841

19,257

45,522

45,562

49,094

3,043

2,004

3,010

3,242

2,838

3,950

5,096

4,111

4,321

5,969

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Management

Building and Grounds Cleaning andMaintenance

Education, Training, and Library

Personal Care and Service

Transportation and Material Moving

Business and Financial Operations

Construction and Extraction

Office and Administrative Support

Sales and Related

Food Preparation and Serving Related

Replacement Needs Growth

Over 10 year period,86% of Colorado’s annual openings in occupations will be due to transfers and exits

Projected Top Ten Fastest Growing Occupations* (2017 - 2027)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

33%

33%

33%

36%

39%

40%

40%

42%

53%

56%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Superv. of Const. & Extract. Workers

Market Research & Marketing Specialists

Registered Nurses

Nonfarm Animal Caretakers

Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters

Medical Assistants

Software Developers, Applications

Massage Therapists

Personal Care Aides

Home Health Aides

Projected Percent Change (2017-27)*Occupations with at least 1,000 projected annual openings

Summary• Colorado one of the top labor markets since Great

Recession: low unemployment, high labor force participation, fast employment growth, diverse & educated workforce

• Job gains have been uneven across the state, concentrated primarily in metro areas along the Front Range

• While most economic indicators have exceeded levels seen in mid-2000s expansion, there are a few that lag behind the 1990s expansion (involuntary part-time; prime-age participation; wage growth)

• We anticipate continued growth over the next 2 years, but at a slower rate

ContactInformation

• Email: [email protected]

• Work Phone: 303-318-8858

• LMI Website: www.colmigateway.com• CES: http://colmigateway.com/ces• LAUS: http://colmigateway.com/laus• QCEW: http://colmigateway.com/qcew• OES: http://colmigateway.com/oeswage• Short-term occupations: https://www.colmigateway.com/stop• Short-term industry: https://www.colmigateway.com/stip• Long-term occupations: http://colmigateway.com/occprj• Long-term industry: http://colmigateway.com/indprj

Ryan GedneySenior EconomistLabor Market Information, CDLE

Bonus Material for Industry Trends & Characteristics in Colorado

• Industry Concentration• Business Formation• Net Job Flows with Other States

Colorado’s Highest Concentration 6-Digit NAICS Industries* Relative to Rest of U.S.

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)

6- Digit NAICS Description 2017 Employment Location Quotient

Skiing facilities 10,301 14.01

Geophysical surveying & mapping svcs. 1,633 6.24

Offices of misc. health practitioners 11,758 5.96

All other telecommunications 2,834 5.45

Blind and shade manufacturing 1,117 5.00

Breweries 5,601 4.53

Cattle feedlots 1,147 4.41

Natural gas extraction 2,750 4.01

Computer storage device manufacturing 1,301 4.01

Directory and mailing list publishers 1,192 3.33*Of industries with at least 1,000 employees in 2017

Colorado Has 7 Industry Sectors With High Concentrations of Employment vs. U.S.


Industry Sector Location Quotient LQ Rank

Mining 2.28 11

Information 1.41 4

Arts, entertainment, & recreation 1.33 5

Professional & technical services 1.32 4

Construction 1.30 5

Real estate & rental & leasing 1.28 4

Accommodation & food services 1.13 8

Only Two Other States Have Five Industry Sectors With Top 5 Location Quotient Ranks


New Business Formation Recovering From 2010 Low, But Still Well Below 1990s Rate

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Business Employment Dynamics (BDM)

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CO

Share of Private SectorEstablishments That AreYounger Than 1 Year Old

U.S.

Share of Private Sector Establishments Younger Than 1 Year Old (1994)


Share of Private Sector Establishments Younger Than 1 Year Old (2018)


New Business Survivability Historically High, But Size of Survivors Halved Compared to 1990s


80.2%

73.9%

81.1%7.3

3.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Blue Line (left axis) =Survival Rate of COPrivate Sector Establishments Born in Prior Year

Red Line (right axis) =Average EmploymentSize for Surviving CO Private Sector Establishments 1 Year After Birth

Colorado Net Job Flows With Other States Peaked in 2014, But Have Recently Improved

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Census Bureau; Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)/Job-to-job Explorer

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

27,00020

11 Q

4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

2017

Q2

Col

orad

o N

et J

ob to

Job

Flo

w*

(Mov

ing

Four

Qua

rter

Tot

als)

*Excludes Alaska and South Dakota

Total Net Job Flows for Colorado (2014 Q3 to 2015 Q2)


Total Net Job Flows for Colorado (2016 Q3 to 2017 Q2)


Texas Case Study in Job to Job Flows –Currently Largest Contributor


-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,00020

11 Q

4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

2017

Q2

Net

Job

to J

ob F

low

–TX

& C

O

(Mov

ing

Four

Qua

rter

Tot

als)

What are top sectors for those moving from TX to CO in 2017 Q2?#1 – Accommodation & Food Services#2 – Construction#3 – Admin. Support & Waste Mgmt.#4 – Retail Trade#5 – Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services

California Case Study in Job to Job Flows –Consistently One of Largest Contributors


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

2017

Q2

Net

Job

to J

ob F

low

–C

A &

CO

(Mov

ing

Four

Qua

rter

Tot

als)

What are top sectors for those moving from CA to CO in 2017 Q2?#1 – Accommodation & Food Services#2 – Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services#3 – Retail Trade#4 – Admin. Support & Waste Mgmt.#5 – Transportation & Warehousing

Washington Case Study in Job to Job Flows –Largest Net Drag on Job Flows with Colorado


-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

2017

Q2

Net

Job

to J

ob F

low

–W

A &

CO

(Mov

ing

Four

Qua

rter

Tot

als)

What are top sectors for those moving from CO to WA in 2017 Q2?#1 – Retail Trade#2 – Accommodation & Food Services#3 – Admin. Support & Waste Mgmt.#4 – Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services#5 – Healthcare & Social Assistance

Arizona Case Study in Job to Job Flows –Now Net Drag on Job Flows with Colorado


-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,40020

11 Q

4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

2017

Q2

Net

Job

to J

ob F

low

–AZ

& C

O(M

ovin

g Fo

ur Q

uart

er T

otal

s)

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

AZ &

CO

Net

Flo

w

(by

Age

Coh

ort)

22-3435-5414-21

55+

denver association of business economists luncheon · notable shifts in labor force participation...

Documents