Demystifying State Assessments

Forest Service

State & Private Forestry Redesign

Version 2

December 10, 2008

Road Map

• S&PF Redesign Context

• State Assessments and Resource Strategies

• Geospatial Assessment Process

• S&PF Assessment Tool

• Supporting Efforts and Resources

Redesign Context

• State & Private Forestry Redesign– Landscape-scale Priorities and Impacts– Integrating programs, leveraging partnerships– pressures on our nation’s forests, S&PF

resources and funds

• 2008 Farm Bill– Requires State Assessments and Resource

Strategies– Replaces other planning requirements– 2 years to complete (June 2010)

National Assessment:Communication Tool

Programs and Staffing

Communicating and Demonstrating Results

Competitive Resource Allocation

Integrated Program Delivery

State Assessments & Resource Strategies

National Themes & Objectives:

Conserve Working ForestsProtect Forests from Harm

Enhance Benefits from Forests

Plan

Implement

Report & Monitor

Share Success & Adapt

S&PF Redesign Components

Overview

• Three Components1. Assessment: Analysis of forest conditions,

trends, and threats. Identify priority areas

2. Strategy: long-term strategy for addressing issues in priority landscapes

3. Annual Report on Use of Funds

State AssessmentsRequirements

• Analysis of present and future forest conditions and trends on all ownerships

• Identify threats, benefits, and services

• Consistent with the S&PF national themes

• Delineate priority forest landscape areas w/in a State

• Identify multi-state of regional priority

Different Approaches

• States have flexibility in conducting their assessments

• Several states are framing their assessments using the Montreal Process Criteria & Indicators

• States can also use an issue-based approach

Regional or National Assessments

• Communication tools to highlight broad issues and accomplishments

• Standard data and approach needed – Creates a Common Level Playing Field– Enables Regional/National Summaries and

Comparisons• S&PF Data Strategy Team

– Team of FS and State Experts– Identify data gaps and develop layers– Develop Multi-resolution standards and data– Support State & National assessments

Geospatial Analyses to Identify Priority Areas

• All ownerships (public and private) • Urban to rural continuum• Across themes, issues, programs • May include multiple analyses• Priority areas = opportunities for

integration, collaboration• Data Input Options: Geospatial,

Qualitative, and Quantitative.

State Strategy

• Long-term strategies to address issues, threats, and priority areas identified in State Assessment

• Describe how state activities will address S&PF objectives

• Description of resources needed to achieve the Strategy

• Incorporate other state plans – wildlife action plan, community wildfire protection plans

• Address existing S&PF program planning requirements

Additional Guidance

• Coordination– State Technical Committees, Wildlife

Agencies, Federal land mgmt agencies, Tribes, other partners

• Timeline– Due June, 2010; Updates every 5 years

• Approval Process – State Forester and Secretary of Ag

Regional Support & Guidance

• NASF & FS Regions are providing support to states

• NAASF: Developed guide and framework documents– Many states using C&I approach

• SGSF: Texas is developing a pilot assessment

• WFLC: hiring a West-wide assessment coordinator/support person

GeospatialAssessment Process

Example Geospatial Assessment Process – Available to State Partners

• S&PF Assessment Tool– Tool currently being developed by FS with

ESRI– Tool can be used for National, regional, or

state assessments– The tool follows the process outlined below

GeospatialAssessment Process

S&PF Assessment Tool

• Overview of Functionality– Tool allows for uploading

of state data layers and aggregation

– Assign weights to data layers and themes (if desired)

– Run different scenarios– View output

• Standard GIS Weighted Overlay Process– Combination and weighting of multiple factors

• Advantages:– Integrative Process– Transparency and Repeatability– Interactivity and Scalability– Comparability Across Geographic Regions

• If standard data are used.

GeospatialAssessment Process

• Can build on Forest Stewardship Spatial Analysis Project (SAP)

• The Data Layers from SAP can be used in the State Assessments

• The weighted overlay analysis used in SAP is similar to this process

GeospatialAssessment Process

• S&PF Assessment Tool Process Steps:1. Identify Themes/Objectives and Criteria

2. Rank & Weight Theme Criteria• Themes can also be ranked and weighted

3. Assemble Standard Data

4. Data (Criteria) Aggregation

5. Weighted Overlay - Combine Layers by Theme• Change weights and Re-Run if Necessary

6. Governance

GeospatialAssessment Steps

Step 1.

Identify Themes, Objectives and their Criteria

National Themes & Objectives

Themes and Objectives are based on Section 8001 of the 2008 Farm Bill – National Priorities for Private Forest Conservation and were approved by the RIC.

Theme Objective

Conserving Working Forest Landscapes

Identify and conserve high priority forest ecosystems and landscapes.

Actively and sustainably manage forests.

Protect Forests From Harm

Restore fire-adapted lands and reduce risk of wildfire impacts.

Identify, manage and reduce threats to forest and ecosystem health.

Enhance Public Benefits Associated with Trees and Forests

Protect and enhance water quality and quantity.

Improve air quality and conserve energy.

Assist communities in planning for and reducing wildfire risks.

Maintain and enhance the economic benefits and values of trees and forests.

Protect, conserve, and enhance wildlife and fish habitat.

Connect people to trees and forests, and engage them in environmental stewardship activities.

Manage and restore trees and forests to mitigate and adapt to global climate change.

Themes & Objectives

• States may add their own objectives

• States should decide the relative importance of the national objectives

• States should define the objectives to address their specific State issues - this is “identifying criteria”…– Requires Subject Area Expert Involvement

Identify Criteria

• To Identify Criteria:– Define

Questions for each Objective, for example…

Identify and conserve high priority forest ecosystems and landscapes.

Identify, manage and reduce threats

to forest and ecosystem health.

Protect & Enhance Water Quality and

Quantity

Which ex-urban forest areas in our State are most likely to develop to urban densities in the next 5 years?

Where are urban forests in our State most threatened by emerald ash borer?

Where can agroforestry techniques along waterways be applied to improve water quality most effectively in our State?

• Composite Maps Already Exist for Some of These– WUI, Fire, etc. these act as Criteria for each objective

S&PF Assessment Tool

•Add multiple themes

•You can also just add just theme and weight all criteria

Step 2.

Rank and Weight Theme Criteria(And Themes if Desired)

Ranking/Weighting

• Determine Goals/Priorities

• What is most important in meeting theme goals? Fire, Insect & Disease, Water?

• Subject area bias, how do we prevent this?– Those doing the ranking should have

influence and oversight over multiple disciplines.

– Broader agency goals

Ranking/Weighting

• Framework for Ensuring Consistency of Ranks and Weights…

• Powerful Tool for Running Scenarios

• “Delphi Process” for Decision Support

Ranking/Weighting

• Ranking Process:1. Identify what is most important

– Assign a value of one

2. Compare everything else to what is identified as most important– How much less important is each factor?…use

the 10-point scale

3. Calculate weights

Ranking/Weighting

• Each criterion within a theme is ranked based on its importance (influence).

Description Comparison Rating

Most Important 1

1/2

Moderately Less 1/3

1/4

Strongly Less 1/5

1/6

Very Strongly 1/7

1/8

Extremely Less 1/9

1/10

Unsuitable N/A

10-Point Ranking Scale

Focus on words rather than numbers…computer processes

the numbers.

Ranking/Weighting

Criteria

Most Important

Moderately Less

Import.

Strongly Less

Import.

Description Number10 Point Ranking

1

1/5

1/3

Calculate Weights by Hand

Convert Fractions to decimals

1/1 = 1.00

1/3 = 0.33

1/5 = 0.20

Sum the decimals 1.53

Divide each decimal by the total

0.33/1.53 = 0.215 or 22%

0.2/1.53 = 0.13 or 13%

1/1.53 = 0.65 or 65%

Ranking/Weighting

CriteriaCalculate Weights by Hand

Convert Fractions to decimals

1/1 = 1.00

1/1 = 1.00

1/5 = 0.20

Sum the decimals 2.2

Divide each decimal by the total

1/2.2 = 0.454 or 45%

0.2/2.2 = 0.909 or 10%

1/2.2 = 0.454 or 45%Most

Important

Strongly Less

Import.

Description Number10 Point Ranking

1

1/5

1Also Most Import.

Round Up or Add an Extra PointAll weights must sum to 100%

Another Example…

Ranking/Weighting

AssignWeights To Theme Criteria

Development

Woody Biomass

Forest Fragmentati

onFire Potential

Insect & Disease Risk

Wildland Urban

Interface

Critical Habitat

65%

22%

13%

50%

50%

75%

25%

45%

10%

45%

Conserve Working Forest Lands

Protect Forests From

Harm

Enhance Public Benefit from

Trees & Forests

Overall Composit

e (if needed)

Assign Weights To Themes If Desired…

S&PF Assessment Tool

• Input your weights for themes and layers

Ranking/Weighting

• Use the weighting/ranking process to identify data needs…– Sets priorities for data development

Step 3.

Assemble Standard Data

Standard Data

• 1km and some 30 meter National Data Available to States– Use for National Assessments– States without data can also use these

• States should use their own fine resolution data if available. – Many states have lots of data available

Standard Data

• S&PF Redesign Data Web Page– Will have 7 nationally consistent data layers

for download and use– Links to other national/regional data sources

• S&PF Data Strategy Team– Team of FS and State Experts– Identify data gaps and develop layers– Develop Multi-resolution standards and data– Support State & National assessments

Standard DataAssign Data-Layers…

Development

Woody Biomass

Forest Fragmentati

onFire Potential

Insect & Disease

RiskWildland

Urban Interface

Critical Habitat

Conserve Working Forest Lands

Protect Forests From

Harm

Enhance Public Benefit from

Trees & Forests

to Themes (if desired)

2006 Nat. Insect and Disease Risk Map

2000 Wildland Fire Potential Map

Development Risk Map

Woody Biomass Map

Forest Fragmentation Map

Wildland Urban Interface Map

Critical Habitat Characteristics Map

S&PF Assessment Tool

• Upload and name your data layers

S&PF Assessment Tool

• Create different scenarios – allows for trying out different weights, layers, etc.

• Reclassify data layers – allows user to decide “high priority” values

Step 4.

Data (Criteria) Aggregation

Data Aggregation

• Difficult to work with “pixels” on a Landscape Level– Aggregated map a better communication tool

• Not all layers overlap

• Preventing Unintended Uses of the Data– “My Favorite Pixel”

• Local Decisions Still Based on Local Data/Information

Data Aggregation

• Many Types of Potential Aggregation Units– Watersheds and Ecoregions at Various

Scales two Primary Examples…

WUI: 1km Pixels WUI: 8-Digit HUC

Data Aggregation

• Recommended Data Aggregation Steps:1. Identify high priority (highest risk, best

potential for rehabilitation etc.) areas– recode pixels to a value of one

2. Calculate the proportion of each aggregation unit that is made up of high priority areas– Entire unit vs. forested areas

3. Using “Equal Area” divide the proportions into three classes (high-med-low).– Assign a value of 0 (low), 1 (med), and 2 (high)

Data AggregationExample: Areas at risk of losing 35 - 65% of it’s forests to insect and disease activity in the next 15 years have the best rehabilitation potential. These areas are flagged and the proportion of forest falling into these areas is calculated by watershed.

High Priority Areas

Proportion (0 – 43% of Forest)

Equal Area Classes

1 2 3

1

2

3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Aggregation UnitAggregation Unit SmallSmall LargeLarge

Unit SizeUnit Size 9 64

Priority AreaPriority Area 8 16

Percent PriorityPercent Priority 89% 25%

Not Priority

Priority

L E G E N D

Why use proportion or percent of aggregation unit instead of the amount of area of concern?

To ensure all watersheds have an equal chance of being represented.

Data Aggregation

High

Low

Step 5.

Weighted Overlay

Weighted Overlay

• Weighted Overlay Steps:1. Multiply each aggregated layer by its

criterion weight

2. Sum the results by Theme

3. Multiply the summed results for each Theme by the Theme weight (if desired)

4. Sum the Theme results producing a single composite map (if desired)

Weighted Overlay

CriteriaMultiply by Potential

Medium = 1

Low = 0

High = 2

0 x .22 = 0

0.13 x 2.2 = 0.26

0.65 x 1 = 0.65

Layer Weight

65% or 0.65

13% or 0.13

22% or 0.22

Most Important

Strongly Less

Import.

Description

Moderately Less

Important

Example: A Watershed has…

Sum for Overall Watershed Potential

________

0.91, rounded to 1 (Medium)

Weighted Overlay

Sample Assessment

Development65%

Woody Biomass 22%

Fragmentation 13%

Conserve Working Forest Land

L E G E N D

High Moderate Low

Sample Assessment

Sample Assessment

• State Example - Using different Aggregation units

L E G E N D

High Moderate Low

Conserve Working Forest Lands

Protect Forests from Harm

Enhance Public Benefits Composite

Weighted Overlay

• Evaluate Individual Results– Easy to see what is driving the maps

• Change Weights and Re-Run Outputs– Scenarios (Gaming)

• Different Aggregation Units

• Swap in Higher Resolution Data

S&PF Assessment Tool

• View status of analysis and edit steps

Step 6.

Governance

Governance

• Value-Driven Process• Decisions made by leadership• Limitation of Data• Data Improvement and Development• Urban & Community Forestry scaling

issues• Long-term vs. short-term management• Risk vs. Opportunity

Governance

• Define the Questions

• Clear Process

• Weighting Methodology

• Process Facilitator

• Subject Matter Expert Involvement– with GIS knowledge– Tool could help eliminate some of the GIS

need

S&PF Assessment Tool

• Uses Process Outlined in this Presentation

• Version scheduled to be available in February/March 2009

Supporting Efforts

• S&PF Data Strategy Team

• For More Information: National guidance and other info on S&PF Redesign available at: http://www.fs.fed.us/spf/redesign/index.shtml