Demographic change and inter-generational solidarity

Challenges for urban management

Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Bernhard Müller

Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development (IOER), Dresden, and Technische Universität Dresden

International Smart Metropolis CongressAmberExpo Exhibition & Convention CentreGdansk, Poland

October 23, 2014

Inter-generational solidarity?

An image from yesterday?

Inter-generational solidarity?

An image from yesterday?

Living experience of today?

The discussion is not new!

Aging:

Problems

Don’t be afraid of being old?Don’t be afraid of the elderly

The war of generations will not take place

?

1996:

Conflicts?

Controversial discussion

„Pensioner takes housing company to court: rent reduced by 10 per cent because of noise from school and playground“ (Newspaper cutting, August 2008)

„Pensioners responsible for half of the expenditure in the health sector“ (Newspaper cutting, August 2008)

...

1. What do we know about demographic change?

1. What do we know about demographic change?

2. What are the consequences for cities and regions?

1. What do we know about demographic change?

2. What are the consequences for cities and regions?

3. What are the policy responses regarding sustainable development?

1. What do we know about demographic change?

2. What are the consequences for cities and regions?

3. What are the policy responsesregarding sustainable development?

Aging –challenge for all local communities and regions in Germany

Source: Calculation by IOER based on microcensus 2006

Aging regions =regions in decline?

Regional diversity

Berlin

Frankfurt

Hamburg

Munich

Share of 60+ populationhouseholds (percentage)

StableShrinkingAgeing

Population trends in Germany (2005)

The two-foldchallenge for communities and regions: - ageing and- shrinkage

Berlin

Frankfurt

Hamburg

Munich

Reason 1: Higher life expectancy – longer life

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

TFR

year

Total Fertility Rate in European countries 1960-2005

Austria

Belgium

Bulgaria

C.RepublicCyprus

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Schiappacasse, Müller 2008

Drop of TFR …… under the reproduction rate … between the 1960s and 1990s

Reason 2: Less children

Reason 3: Out-migration

Out-migration from East Germany

It is the economically active population which leaves.

Women are better educated and more mobile

East Germany:Unbalanced gender distribution

Unbalanced gender:The example of Hamburg

Blue: Men surplus - Red: women surplus

Europe 1:Less young populationin most regions

Total Population (0-14)EU 28

2006 - 2007 79.442.9692012 - 2013 79.045.232Annual growth rate - 0.1 %

Source: Eurostat

Europe 2:More elderly, especially late elderly

2005-2050 (EU27):

Late elderly people (80+): +180.5 %

Source: Green Paper on Demographic Change, 2005

Population over 80~ 4% total population

2006 20.650.3002013 25.555.827Annual growth rate 3.09 %

Source: Eurostat

Europe 3:Growing burden forthe economically active population

2005-2030:EU will lack 20.8 million (6.8 per cent) of working age population

In 2030:Roughly two active persons (15-65) will have to take care of one inactive person (65+)

Source: Green Paper on Demographic Change, 2005

Source: Eurostat

1. What do we know about demographic change?

2. What are the consequences for cities and regions?

3. What are the policy responsesregarding sustainable development?

Consequences:

Changing housing markets

Housing markets

Basis: 10th coordinated population projection

First time renters (20-30 years of age)

First time buyers (30-45 years of age)

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 205040

55

70

85

100

115in percant

West Germany V5

East Germany V5

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 205040

55

70

85

100

115in percant

West Germany V5

East Germany V5

1990 2000 2010 2020 203050

75

100

125

150

175in Prozent

Ersthaushaltsgründungen

Eigentumserwerb

betreutes Wohnen

Demographic potential of housing demand in Saxony, Germany (2000-2030)

Source: IOER 2004

First time rentersFirst time buyersVery elderly people

Age > 75

Age 20-30

Age 30-45

Standard Design Assisted Living Source: Eichener 2007

Dimensions of Housing for the Elderly

Constructive-technical Measuures:Barrier Free Buildings (e.g. DIN)

Communication Technology:Center for Emergency Calls(e.g. SOPHIA)

Social Measures:Assitance(e.g. Assisted Living)

Gerontologic-technologicMeasures:Sensors,TelemedicalServices(e.g. Smarter Living NRW)

Quelle: Eichener 2007

Consequences:

Changing housing marketsSocial infrastructure

88 per cent of the population can reachthe closest medium-sized town within less than 15 minutes

Accessibility of medium-sized towns

Time required to reach a medium-sized town or a large city by car (in minutes)

Only 2,3 per cent of the population in Germany need more than 20 minutes to reach the closest hospital

Accessibility of hospitals

Time required to reach the closest hospital by car (2004, in minutes)

Housing related infrastructure

Primary schools: Oversupply and demand

Development of number of pupilsin primary schoolsin Germany1995-2002 (in %)

In 2015:Every fourth primary school in Germany is expected to be confronted with closure(Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung 2008)

Consequences:

Changing housing marketsSocial infrastructureTechnical infrastructureTransportation (esp. low density areas)

Drastic decrease of the number of school children has severe consequences for the decrease of service quality of public transport in rural areas

Transportation and Mobility

Consequences:

Changing housing marketsSocial infrastructureTechnical infrastructureTransportation (esp. low density areas)Employment (missing young population)and economic competitiveness in the futureGender imbalances (out-migration of women)and social consequences

1. What do we know about demographic change?

2. What are the consequences for cities and regions?

3. What are the policy responsesregarding sustainable development?

For a long time

For a long time

Reversing the trends ?

Fact:Population growth ofGerman municipalities(2005-2010)

Blue: decreaseRed: increase

Fact:Population growth ofGerman municipalities(2005-2010)

Blue: decreaseRed: increase

Option 1:Attracting people?

Option 2: Reversing migration?

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

TFR

year

Total Fertility Rate in European countries 1960-2005

Austria

Belgium

Bulgaria

C.RepublicCyprus

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Schiappacasse, Müller 2008

Drop of TFR …… under the reproduction rate … between the 1960s and 1990s

Option 3: More children?

Option 4: Attracting migrants from abroad?

Foreign migration to Germany 1950-2012

In-migration

Out-migration

Balance

Option 5:

Changing the pictures in our minds …

Today’s perception of aging – dominated by old traditions?

Homogeneous phase in life cycle (= burden)?

-> “Right way” of aging as withdrawing and focusing on private life

Today’s perception of aging – dominated by old traditions?

Active ageing

We have to distinguishthe 3rd from the 4th phase of life(Paul Baltes)

Option 5:

Changing the pictures in our minds …

… and adopting a new perspective on demographic change and the ageing society

Aging

New challenges – new chances

Akademiengruppe Altern in Deutschland(Academy Group on Aging in Germany):

Productivity and life-long learning

Aging: New Challenges

New Opportunities

Higher life expectation -Differentiation between third and fourth phase of life

Examples:

• „Silver Economy“ – new market• Productivity – Extension and flexibility of

work life span • Active aging and self-determined life –

lifelong learning• Voluntarism - new fields of activities• Challenges – new solutions

Variety of approaches and initiatives:

Federal Government State GovernmentsMunicipalitiesFoundationsNGOsIndustry

Model projectsContests for Good Practice

Reaction to aging

Intergenerational housing, assisted living, ICT, aging in place, mobile services, modernizationResidential environment, aging oriented open space planningBarrier-free accessibility, neighborhood shops, public transportation, ICT, mobile services Health care facilities, social infrastructure, retirement facilitiesSenior citizens’ councils, voluntarism

National level

Policies addressing

Aging (active aging) e.g. pension provisions, labor market, social benefitsEmployment, e.g. labour market, work flexibilityFamilies, e.g. family friendly employment, family support, reproductive health initiatives, child benefitsMigration, e.g. replacement immigration

Social security reformsEconomic development policiesHealth care policies

Finance

Model Regions East

Six action fields:

Regional labor market, education and training

Regional economy

Transport infrastructure and mobility

Social infrastructure and family friendliness

New types housing and neighborhood cooperation

Culturel and regional identity

State LevelThe Saxonian Strategy „Shaping demographic change“

Background: State Government initiative

Expert Commisssion of Governor

Recommendations of experts

Regional Forums by State Government

Discussion of recommendations

Interministerial discussion

Start of elaborating the strategy

State Directive for the support of initiatives tackling demographic change (project implementation)

Demography training

European networking

Partnerships in Germany

State Level The Saxonian Strategy „Shaping demographic change“

Strategic Goals:

Life-long learning and innovationRegional basic servicesInter-generational cooperationRestructuring of settlement and infrastructureChances of active ageing

Action Program:e.g. demography check; strategic planning; inter-municipal cooperation; monitoring

Local level

Recent debate:political cost, lack of incentives

Initiatives, not policies

Diversity of approaches

Attraction of new inhabitants:shrinkage reversal strategies

Dealing with problems:crisis management

Important incentive:National and State Integrated Urban Restructuring Programs

Integrated urban development strategy: Dresden

Relevance of model projects – creating new environments

Example: The Saxonian Strategy „Shaping demographic change“

Strategic Goals:

Life-long learning and innovationRegional basic servicesInter-generational cooperationRestructuring of settlement and infrastructureChances of active aging

Action Program:e.g. demography check; strategic planning; inter-municipal cooperation; monitoring

Competition for projects and initiatives (funds)

AgnES

Quelle: www.tagesschau.de

Foto: EisenhammerQuelle:

Neue Bilder vom Altern

Ausstellungs-katalog

Much has been done – there is still much to do

AgnES

Quelle: www.tagesschau.de

Foto: EisenhammerQuelle:

Neue Bilder vom Altern

Ausstellungs-katalog

Much has been done – there is still much to do

Where we age is crucial to how we age!Aging sensitive development:

Local communities for all generations – The activating smart community of short distances and the interlinked region oriented towards sustainable development

Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Bernhard MüllerTechnische Universität Dresden, Chair of Spatial Development and Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development (IOER)

b.mueller@ioer.de

Demographic change and inter-generational solidarity

Challenges for urban management

Where we age is crucial to how we age!Aging sensitive development:

Local communities for all generations – The activating smart community of short distances and the interlinked region oriented towards sustainable development