demo soofi
TRANSCRIPT
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CrowdSkipprWafa Soofi
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Yosemite trip, May 2011
We had a great time…
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Though it might have been better if the scenery had looked
less like this
alanak
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and morelikethis.
Gianluca Vegetti
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The problemI want to go hiking at a time/day that works for me, but that also
minimizes the size of the crowds.
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The problemI want to go hiking at a time/day that works for me, but that also
minimizes the size of the crowds.
I would like to predict the crowd size for a specific location and a
range of future dates.
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The problemI want to go hiking at a time/day that works for me, but that also
minimizes the size of the crowds.
I would like to predict the crowd size for a specific location and a
range of future dates.
Then I can use that prediction to make an intelligent choice about
when to take my trip.
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How do we predict crowds right now?
Government dataOften aggregated
Not always immediately accessible
Check-insSparse coverage
Prior knowledge/IntuitionNot always validated
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There’s another way.
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There’s another way.
We can crowdsource this problem!
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CrowdSkippr: Inner workings
From flickr.com, extract the total
number of photos taken at a given
time/place).
Extract data on temperatures
from NOAA.gov for
a given time/place.
Using this information, create a prediction of how heavy the crowds will be at a given
future time/place.
TM
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Gradient Boosting RegressionPredictors
Day of week (Flickr)Holiday flag (Flickr)Day of year (Flickr)
Daily temperature (NOAA)
ResponseNumber of photos taken (Flickr)
(proxy for size of crowd)
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Photos (or visitors) per
month normalized by
total
Wait:Is # photos a good proxy for # visitors?
PhotosVisitors
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Photos (or visitors) per
month normalized by
total
Wait:Is # photos a good proxy for # visitors?
PhotosVisitors
02000
4000
6000
8000
100001200014000
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000
R2 =0.89
No. Photos
Num
. Visi
tors
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Day of Year
Temperature
Day of Week
Yosemite National Park
Holiday
Relative Feature Importance0 0.4 0.6 0.8 10.2
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Thanks for your time!I’m Wafa.
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For all 28-day windows in a given year,the median difference between crowd size on predicted
and actual best days is 4.6%.
(On the days that are predicted to have the lowest crowds, the crowd size is 29% of the worst possible
crowds within that window.)
Validation:Rocky Mountain National Park
Predicted crowd size
Actual crowd size (test data)