delta satisfaction how to avoid unintended bias when you research customer satisfaction

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Delta Satisfaction How To Avoid Unintended Bias When You Research Customer Satisfaction

Beyond Philosophy

Steven Walden, Senior Head of Research and Consulting

Qaalfa Dibeehi, Chief Operating and Consulting Officer

www.beyondphilosophy.com 2Beyond Philosophy © All rights reserved. 2001-2011

The Beyond Philosophy Perspective

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www.beyondphilosophy.com 3

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Beyond Philosophy © All rights reserved. 2001-2011


Delta Value Learning Objectives

Discover how

dissatisfaction is hidden or

being under-estimated

Understand Anchoring bias

and its implications

Learn how Delta Value

gives a more complete

measurement of

Satisfaction/Dissatisfaction,

Trust/Distrust, Willingness

to Recommend/Reputation

Destroyer

Explore actual case studies

with information you can

use


4


The Revolution

Beyond Philosophy © All rights reserved. 2001-2011 5

On a scale from 1-5, (where 1 means very dissatisfied and 5 means very

satisfied) tell us how satisfied you are with your train service.

1 2 3 4 5

Very

Dissatisfied

Very

Satisfied

Neither satisfied

Nor Dissatisfied



1 2 3 4 5

Very

Dissatisfied

Very

Satisfied

Neither satisfied

Nor Dissatisfied

On a scale from 1-5, (where 1 means not at all dissatisfied and 5 means very

dissatisfied) tell us how dissatisfied you are with your train service.

1 2 3 4 5

Not at all

Dissatisfied

Very

Dissatisfied

CSAT

∆SAT


WHY BOTHER?DELTA VALUE



Why Satisfaction? the baseline KPI


Turel, Ofir; Alexander Serenko (2006). "Satisfaction with mobile

services in Canada: An empirical investigation

Source: Wikipedia

3

http://foba.lakeheadu.ca/serenko/papers/Turel_Serenko_tp_published.pdf

http://foba.lakeheadu.ca/serenko/papers/Turel_Serenko_tp_published.pdf


Why Satisfaction: the baseline for emotion (Kano)



Four Problems with Satisfaction


• It overestimates actual

satisfaction

• It ever so slightly biases

towards positive answers

• It plateaus at the high end

• It does not take account of the

fact that we customers can be

happy and unhappy about

aspects of a product/ service at

the same time

9


What makes for a good measure?

One that is psychologically valid i.e., covers the concept

in the mind of the consumer correctly not one that sounds

correct on paper or as a mathematical interpretation

One that covers the dimension in question adequately

10Beyond Philosophy © All rights reserved. 2001-2011

Current measures are mathematically valid, not

psychologically valid


Looking at Customer Satisfaction




1 2 3 4 5

Very

Dissatisfied

Very

Satisfied

Neither Satisfied

Nor Dissatisfied

11






Conceptually it is accepted that Customer Satisfaction has to be

measured on a continuum that runs from very dissatisfied to very

satisfied

1 2 3 4 5

Very

Dissatisfied

Very

Satisfied

Neither Satisfied

Nor Dissatisfied

12






1 2 3 4 5

Very

Dissatisfied

Very

Satisfied

Neither Satisfied

Nor Dissatisfied 3.5

13






What is the psychological interpretation of this score? Does it

adequately enable consideration of dissatisfaction, in the minds of

the consumer! Does it enable consideration that things can be both

at the same time? If not then it lacks validity, even though it maybe

mathematically valid.

1 2 3 4 5

Very

Dissatisfied

Very

Satisfied

Neither Satisfied


14


Delta Value: looking at Customer Satisfaction




1 2 3 4 5

Very

Dissatisfied

Very

Satisfied

Neither Satisfied


15






1 2 3 4 5

Very

Dissatisfied

Very

Satisfied

Neither satisfied


Anchoring and adjustment is a psychological heuristic that

influences the way people intuitively assess probabilities.

According to this heuristic, people start with an implicitly

suggested reference point (the "anchor") and make

adjustments to it to reach their estimate.

The anchoring and adjustment heuristic was first theorized

by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. In one of their first

studies, the two showed that when asked to guess the

percentage of African nations which are members of the

United Nations, people who were first asked "Was it more or

less than 10%?" guessed lower values (25% on average)

than those who had been asked if it was more or less than

65% (45% on average).

16

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amos_Tversky

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman






1 2 3 4 5

Very

Dissatisfied

Very

Satisfied

Neither Satisfied


Okish

Memory

Construal

Construal is a social psychological

term used to describe how a person

perceives, comprehends, and

interprets the world around him or

her,

Platform Interior

17

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_psychology






1 2 3 4 5

Very

Dissatisfied

Very

Satisfied

Neither Satisfied


„I do not pull out dissatisfaction moments, but bland moments; the

scale is a mathematical solution, not a psychological one.

Okish

18

Platform Interior


Delta Value: Unipolar solution


On a scale from 1-5, (where 1 means not at all dissatisfied and 5 means

very dissatisfied) tell us how dissatisfied you are with your train service.

1 2 3 4 5

Not at all

Dissatisfied

Very

Dissatisfied

19


Delta Value




1 2 3 4 5

Not at all

Dissatisfied

Very

Dissatisfied

Poor

Memory

Construal

Changes

Very crowded Rude inspector

20


Delta Value




1 2 3 4 5

Not at all

Dissatisfied

Very

Dissatisfied

Poor

Memory

Construal

Changes

1.8

21

Very crowded Rude inspector


Prospect Theory


Losses speak louder than gains. Satisfaction is most sensitive to

negative construals; ironically, a bi-polar scale mutes its effectiveness

as a measure by failing to emphasis where losses occur.

22

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/Valuefun.jpg


Delta Value


On a scale from 1-5, (where 1 means not at all Satisfied and 5 means

very Satisfied) tell us how satisfied you are with your train service.

1 2 3 4 5

Not at all

Satisfied

Very

Satisfied3.6

OK

Slightly late Interior

Memory

Construal

23


∆SAT vs. Traditional CSAT


∆SAT

CSAT

1.8

3.5

Which is a valid representation?

Delta values are applicable to all indicators

and change the resource allocation drivers.

24


What if we just ask opinion?

Not how satisfied but what do you think?


Lazarus tells us how people can have a positive

and negative response at the same time.

“We argue that customers are simultaneously satisfied and

dissatisfied and more over the relation of satisfaction and

dissatisfaction forms a system of meaning upon with they

draw and make behavioural decisions.”

Paaige K. Turner, Robert L. Krizek

Management Communication Quarterly, Volume 20, Number 2 (November 2006)

25


Airport Screen


Unhappy: can hardly see it

Happy: flight is on time

Now rate the Airport Screen Experience!

Unhappy ___________Happy

There is a problem of Phenomenology inherent in quantitative

questioning i.e., it is always an artifice in may or may not capture

the full conceptual representation of an object.

26


The meanings


X drives satisfaction

X does not drive dissatisfaction

A driver to satisfaction


X drives dissatisfaction

Example: parts of the call centre cause

satisfaction, parts cause dissatisfaction


X reduces dissatisfaction

A mega driver to satisfaction

X does not drive satisfaction


No impact



A driver to dissatisfaction



A hygienic action

X reduces satisfaction


Partioned experience: parts + and parts -



A mega dissatisfier



A blandiser

27


THE EVIDENCEDELTA VALUE



Example: Fortune 500 Financial Services Company


ExperienceSatisfaction Dissatisfaction Delta Satisfaction

PE= 49.2% PE= 62.9% PE= 51.2%

Usage 0.29 -0.12 0.31

Marketing 0.09 --- ---

Statement --- 0.52 -0.28

Call Centre Experience -0.07 --- -0.04

Complaints experience 0.36 -0.19 0.51

Overseas call center -0.02 --- ---

Statement

strongly drives

dissatisfaction -

a destroyer of

satisfaction not

picked up

normally

Marketing has

no value

Usage and

Complaints are

even more

important as

active reducers

of dissatisfaction

29


Example: Global Telecommunications Company


Factor Label CSAT DissatisfactionDelta

Satisfaction

Traditional

Allocation

Delta

Allocation

Variance under

Delta

CSAT DELTA CSAT

VARIANCE

UNDER DELTA

TOTAL BY

MAGNITUDE 1.68 1.21 -28%

Cu

sto

me

r

ca

reJ

oin

ing

In-s

tore

Ad

ve

rtis

ing

/

Bra

nd

Ne

two

rkP

rod

uc

t

--- -0.33

1.07

---

-0.77

0.25

0.23

-0.33 0%

0.74 -0.33

--- ---

-0.5 0.27

0.09 -0.16

0.35 0.12

44% 27%

0% 0%

30% 22%

5% 13%

21% 10%

27%

-17%

0%

-8%

8%

-11%

27%

Less investment in

Customer Care,

In-store and

Network

High investment in

Product

Experience

Delta Satisfaction

actually predicts

there will be 28%

less return on

Experience (RoX)

Network both

drives CSAT and

Dissatisfaction

30

1

2

3

1

2

3

1x


To accurately allocate resources take proper account of the

customer experience



A valid picture is only achieved by understanding its opposite


Positive Word of Mouth

Negative Word of Mouth

Customer Satisfaction

Customer Dissatisfaction

Trust

Distrust

∆WOM

∆SAT

∆Trust

32


Managerial Implications

Keep with your current Satisfaction,

Recommendation measures – you have

great longitudinal data

Complement these with a clear

understanding of Satisfaction and

Dissatisfaction (or positive and negative

sides of your measures)

Model in these Delta Values when making

resource decisions

Analyse negative information (i.e., what

drives dissatisfaction) as an active

measure



Don‟t just look at one side of the equation



Delta ValueBeyond Philosophy

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delta satisfaction how to avoid unintended bias when you research customer satisfaction

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