delivering profitable long-term growth...2015/11/06 · | october 15, 2013 page 11 our two core...
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| October 15, 2013 Page 1
Keynote
Delivering profitable long-term growth
Thomas Ebeling
October 15, 2013
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| October 15, 2013 Page 2
Mar 2009 Sep 2009 Mar 2010 Sep 2010 Mar 2011 Sep 2011 Mar 2012 Sep 2012 Mar 2013 Sep 2013
ProSiebenSat.1 share price increased 36-fold within four years
with attractive dividend yields in past three years
Share price development ProSiebenSat.1
[in EUR]
EUR 246m
dividend paid EUR 241m
dividend paid
EUR 1,201m
dividend paid
EUR 32.36
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Source: Bloomberg (03/10/2009–10/08/2013)
EUR 0.90
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| October 15, 2013 Page 3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Modern TimesGroup
ITV ProSiebenSat.1 RTL Group TF1 M6 MetropoleTV
EV/EBITDA basis P/E basis
Despite strong share price performance ProSiebenSat.1
trades in line with relevant peer group
EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples calculated on rolling 12-month forward consensus estimates.
Source: Bloomberg as of October 8, 2013
Mean 9.4x
0
5
10
15
20
25
Modern TimesGroup
ITV ProSiebenSat.1 RTL Group TF1 M6 MetropoleTV
Mean 16.6x
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| October 15, 2013 Page 4
ProSiebenSat.1 achieved strong revenue and earnings
growth and reduced net debt substantially
CAGRs calculated on the basis of annual growth rates of continued operations at the time.
Revenues (CAGR 2009-2012) +7.3% ✔ Recurring EBITDA (CAGR 2009-2012) +12.8% ✔ Recurring EBITDA margin (2012) +31.6% ✔ Underlying net income (CAGR 2009-2012) +41.0% ✔ Net debt reduction (2009-2012) EUR 1.52bn ✔ Financial leverage (12/31/2012) 2.0x ✔
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| October 15, 2013 Page 5
H1 2013 with continued positive results
[in EURm]
Revenues
Recurring EBITDA
1,187.6
337.2
Continuing operations. Net income after non-controlling interests.
Net income 140.7
+12.0% ✔
+6.0% ✔
+25.4% ✔
Underlying net income 155.3 +10.2% ✔
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| October 15, 2013 Page 6
0
25
50
75
100
Digital & Adjacent
All segments growing in H1 2013
Continuing operations. Please note: Broadcasting German-speaking includes Pay TV. *Total revenues incl. internal revenues.
External revenues
[in EURm]
Broadcasting German-speaking
+54.8%
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
100
200
300
Content Production & Global Sales
927.8
H1 2013
896.3
+74.7%
75.0*
46.3*
50.5 28.9
+3.5%
H1 2012 H1 2013 H1 2012 H1 2013 H1 2012
209.2
135.2
• TV advertising revenues: +2.6%
• Distribution revenues: +49.1%
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| October 15, 2013 Page 7
2013 to 2014 is a period of investments in growth…
Digital &
Adjacent
Entry in new markets (e.g., multi-channel-network, AMPYA)
Building up scale (e.g., maxdome, MyVideo)
Bolt-on acquisitions
Incubation initiatives (e.g., Valmano, Petobel)
3
4
5
6
Broadcasting
German-
speaking
New channel launches (sixx, SAT.1 Gold and ProSiebenMAXX) 1
Investments in Austria (Champions League, Puls4) 2
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| October 15, 2013 Page 8
…however, we confirm our August 2013 guidance…
Continuing operations. *Excluding M&A.
FY 2013 targets
Group revenue growth
Recurring EBITDA
Net income
Net debt*
Q2 2013 guidance
mid to high single-digit
above prior year
further improvement
<EUR 1.5bn
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| October 15, 2013 Page 9
…and even increase our 2015 revenue growth target
by EUR 200m
Revenue growth
[in EURm] >800
>125
Content Production &
Global Sales
Digital &
Adjacent
Broadcasting
German-speaking 2010 2015E
Continuing operations. 1) Revenues excl. 9Live 2) based on new 2015 revenue growth target
>250
>425
2,0511)
>2,851
Implied
CAGR
>6.8%
(EUR 800m)
>600
+175
>250
>100 +25
>250
Degree of achieve-
ment H1 20132) 37% 56%1) 83% 54%
old
target
new
target
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| October 15, 2013 Page 10
Our strategy 2012-2018 is built on Broadcasting and Digital
Our vision is to become a broadcasting,
digital entertainment and
commerce powerhouse
by using our TV power and idle ad inventory.
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| October 15, 2013 Page 11
Our two core assets are idle ad space and audiovisual
content
Ad Space
• Idle TV ad space to produce positive
NPV via digital investments (ad
space & cash)
• More digital video ad space to
participate strongly in online video ad
growth
Content (brands)
• Exploiting existing content/output
deals
• Producing/acquiring new and
cheaper content to leverage and
monetize via ad and pay revenues
across different platforms and offerings
– effectively addressing multiple target
groups
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| October 15, 2013 Page 12
TV is the hottest ‘Next Thing’
Source: Salman Amin, Global Chief Marketing, PepsiCo
Everywhere
On demand
Social = Anyone, Anywhere
God made man
because he loves
stories. Yiddish Proverb
Living room only
By appointment
Social = Friends & Family
in your proximity
then ...
NOW
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Page 13 | October 15, 2013
New revenue growth opportunities driven by content
New
channels
New
platforms/
distribution
New well targeted linear FTA channels 5
Non-linear app channels 6
New windowing and monetization strategy for MCN 7
New/better basic Pay TV channels 8
Further increase distribution on all platforms 1
Mobile live streaming 2
HbbTV content 3
Screen management (Smart TVs, tablets, set-top boxes) 4
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| October 15, 2013 Page 14
Content and advertising power are critical drivers
of TV and digital synergies
Free content • > 13,000 hours exclusive local content
• > 50,000 hours US blockbuster content
Free TV
advertising • > EUR 1bn of idle TV ad space
available at no additional cost
Free cross-promo/
bundling power
• Portfolio-spanning product bundle
• Shared customer data cross selling potential
• TV and online reinforce each other
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| October 15, 2013 Page 15
We operate in sizable digital markets with strong structural
growth potential
1) InStream Ad market (gross; Print + Online); 2) Home Video Entertainment (e.g., DVD, Blu-Ray, video rental); 3) Online mobile & consoles; 4) Total music market 5) Total retail market
Source: GfK, PwC, BIU, GfK, A.T. Kearney, Marketline, Statista, P7S1 estimates; market sizes and CAGRs referring to German market
Dynamic market
growth 2012-18E
Structural
growth potential
[market size
vs. addressable
market, in EURm]
AdVoD
~26%
Addressable1
Germany
13,300
2012
214
Digital Entertainment
PayVoD
~25%
Addressable2
Germany
3,030
2012
124
Games
~12%
Addressable3
Europe
2012
3,800
~31%
Addressable4
Germany
2012
1,100
41
~12%
Addressable3
Germany
428,000
2012
Music Streaming Digital Commerce
10,500
24,700
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Page 16 | October 15, 2013
We can achieve competitive margins in large and
growing digital segments
Relatively low content, sales and marketing cost 1
Driving scale of digital assets with TV power and bolt-on acquisitions 2
Leveraging intra/inter digital vertical synergies (e.g., travel cluster) 3
Minimizing inventory risk and fixed payments 4
Avoiding high invest/risk acquisitions 5
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Page 17 | October 15, 2013
Broadcasting & Digital portfolio approach to deliver
balanced and dynamic growth from 2012 to 2018
1) Incl. Distribution
Mid to high single-digit
Leading digital/
broadcasting player
Multiple attractive
businesses
Mid single-digit
<30%
Mid single-digit
Market growth (%)
Our market position
Market portfolio
Revenue growth (%)
Recurring EBITDA (%)
R. EBITDA growth (%)
Investment needs
Digital
Double-digit
Top 3 in segments
Multiple segments
Double-digit
Leader in segment
Mid single-digit
Bolt-on acquisitions/incubation
Broadcasting1)
Low single-digit
Leader
Multiple channels/platforms
Low single-digit
>30%
Low to mid single-digit
Limited Sufficient M&A investment –
no major high risk investment
Group [2012-18 targets]
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| October 15, 2013 Page 18
Key strategies to secure attractive future for our
broadcasting business 1
Maintain leading positions with channels/launch attractive new channels at low cost
Create outstanding linear content (talk-of-nation, live, quality)
Provide top US content
Demonstrate superior TV ad impact/continue to raise prices
Attract new ad customers/cannibalize print & other media
Launch innovative ad technologies & new ad formats/monetization models
Diversify creative talent and artist base
Secure distribution everywhere at lowest cost/maximize distribution income
Keep program cost inflation low/optimize efficient use of program investments
TV 3.0 – Provide new audiovisual content offerings (e.g., apps, TV-Online ping-pong)
1
2
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
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| October 15, 2013 Page 19
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Key strategies to build an attractive digital business
Leverage idle TV and Online ad inventory
Drive all businesses to sufficient scale
Bolt-on acquisitions and incubation
Expand internationally, leveraging broadcasting/other partners
Alliances with PE/VC players and with tech companies
Leverage content across multiple platforms/new content offers (apps)
Create exit value for selected M4E investments
Focus on leadership position in selected Digital Entertainment & eCommerce segments
1
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| October 15, 2013 Page 20
TV growth plan
External revenues incl. AT/CH
Audience share gains with SAT.1/ProSieben 1
Grow new channels 2
Attack print, radio and outdoor 3
Leverage pricing opportunities 4
Build reach through new distribution platforms 5
Target/build new advertising segments 6
~200m TV ad revenue growth
2018 vs. 2012
[in EURm]
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| October 15, 2013 Page 21
Distribution growth plan
External revenues incl. AT/CH
FTA HD growth 1
Lower distribution costs 2
Basic pay penetration growth 3
4
New Pay TV channels (upside) 5
Mobile as new distribution way generating new income and
securing reach in the long term
Build distribution business in AT/CH 6
~100m Distribution revenue
growth 2018 vs. 2012
[in EURm]
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| October 15, 2013 Page 22
D&A growth plan
External revenues
Digital Entertainment 1 • Scale PayVoD (maxdome) and music streaming (Ampya)
• Grow multi-channel-network (Studio71)
• Further grow AdVoD businesses (ad tech income, targeted ads)
• Multi-screen growth (mobile, SmartTV, HbbTV, 2nd Screen)
• New games partnerships and mobile push
Digital Commerce 2 • Expand M4R/E customer portfolio
• Grow strategic portfolio (travel, fashion/lifestyle)
• New incubation initiatives
• Enter new segments (betting, gambling)
• Expand internationally
Adjacent 3
• Drive digitalization (digital music label)
• Expand core label business into close-by areas (events, ticketing artist
management)
~600m Revenue growth
2018 vs. 2012
[in EURm]
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| October 15, 2013 Page 23
~100m Revenue growth
2018 vs. 2012
[in EURm]
Production growth plan
External revenues
Continuous portfolio optimization 1
Continue to build scale across all markets (US, UK, Asia) 2
Targeted strategic content production partnerships 3
Distribution platform partnerships with
digital/online platforms 4
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| October 15, 2013 Page 24
We target EUR 1bn Group revenue growth by 2018
>1,000
>100
Continuing operations.
>300
>600
2,356
>3,356
Implied
CAGR
>6%
Content Production &
Global Sales
Digital &
Adjacent
Broadcasting
German-speaking 2012 2018E
Revenue growth
[in EURm]
Recurring EBITDA margin on targeted EUR 1bn Group revenue growth: 20%-25%
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Page 25 | October 15, 2013
Total revenues 2018E
Until 2018, we will diversify our business portfolio – less
dependency on German TV ad market and strong digital portfolio
1) Based on recurring EBITDA
Other
revenues
>40% German
TV ad
revenue
D&A
25-30%
Total revenues 2018E Margin profiles 2018E1)
>30% BCGS
~20% D&A
~10% CPGS
<30% Group
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| October 15, 2013 Page 26
Summary: ProSiebenSat. 1 corporate targets 2012 – 2018
1) Before M&A. CAGRs in %.
Revenue growth +EUR 1bn
Recurring EBITDA growth (CAGR) mid single-digit
Free Cash Flow1) (CAGR) above revenue
CAGR
Underlying Net Income (CAGR) above revenue
CAGR
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| October 15, 2013 Page 27
Guidance CMD 2013
Outlook FY 2013
confirmed
Mid to high single-digit
Group revenue growth
CMD targets 2010-15
increased
EUR 800m revenue
growth by 2015
CMD targets
2012-18
EUR 1bn revenue
growth by 2018
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| October 15, 2013 Page 28
Disclaimer
This presentation contains "forward looking statements" regarding ProSiebenSat.1 Media AG ("ProSiebenSat.1") or ProSiebenSat.1 Group, including opinions, estimates and projections regarding ProSiebenSat.1's or ProSiebenSat.1 Group's financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management and future operations. Such forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of ProSiebenSat.1 or ProSiebenSat.1 Group to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. These forward looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation and are based on numerous assumptions which may or may not prove to be correct.
No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by ProSiebenSat.1 with respect to the fairness, completeness, correctness, reasonableness or accuracy of any information and opinions contained herein. The information in this presentation is subject to change without notice, it may be incomplete or condensed, and it may not contain all material information concerning ProSiebenSat.1 or ProSiebenSat.1 Group. ProSiebenSat.1 undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements or other information stated herein, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.