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Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World 8 March 2017

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Page 1: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World

8 March 2017

Page 2: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent
Page 3: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

BW LPG at a glance

Total assets

billion USD 2.6

Presence in

9 Countries

Total no of Employees

1537 People

Global presence

World’s largest fleet of VLGCs

Global LPG exports carried by BW LPG in 2016

million tonnes

13

Average worldwide port calls per day in 2016

4.1

Global Seaborne LPG trade in 2016

91

Page 4: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

4

BW LPG in 2016

• Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment.

• Consistent with BW LPG strategy of investing counter cyclically and growing through market downturns

• Took delivery of 6x modern, fuel efficient 84,000 cbm VLGC newbuildings from Hyundai Heavy Industries & Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering

• VLGC BW Broker loaded the first commissioning cargo from the new P66 Freeport LPG Export Terminal

• BW LPG retired 1x LGC (25 years old) using green-recycling methods, as a part of our broader aim to maintain a young and efficient fleet in an environmentally sustainable manner

Page 5: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

5

2016 In Six Graphs

Source: Steem 1960; BW LPG Analysis

VLGC Shortage / (Surplus) vs. Spot Rates ($ per day) Quarterly VLGC 8yr Old Prices ($ MM)

VLGC rates have fallen by 75% YOY in 2016 leading to a 23% reduction in secondhand prices

-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

VLGC Shortage / (Surplus)

VLGC Rates $/day (RHS)

Page 6: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

6

2016 In Six Graphs

Source: Waterborne; BW LPG Analysis

VLGC Fleet Development 2000 - 2020 Historical Far East – U.S. Propane Price Spreads ($ Per Ton)

This is due to VLGC fleet growth of 43 ships or 22% as well as a collapse in the arbitrage to $91/ton from $240/ton in 2015

Page 7: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

7

2016 In Six Graphs

Source: Waterborne; BW LPG Analysis

2016 VLGC Trade by Exporter (MM Tons) Change in LPG Imports FY 2016/ FY 2015 (MM Tons)

However global VLGC trade has grown by 7mt or 12% with China (29%) and Korea (20%) driving import growth

Page 8: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

8

VLGC Trade Heatmap 2012

Source: Steem 1960

Page 9: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

9

VLGC Trade Heatmap 2016

Source: Steem 1960

Page 10: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

10

Historical Cost of VLGC Shipping VLGCs continue to represent an efficient method of transport

VLGC earnings are near the 15-year historical low as a proportion of the cargo value

Freight Rates ($ per Ton) as % of Asian CIF Propane Prices

-

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16

Source: Waterborne; BW LPG Analysis

Page 11: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

11

Historical VLGC Investment Performance vs Rates Over the last 16 years, VLGCs have shown poor aggregate investor returns

Source: Clarksons; BW LPG Analysis

Assumptions continued • DD/SS expense between USD $2-2.5m • Opex of USD $7,250/day (2% inflation) • General & Administration of $1,000/day (2%) • Recovery of Owners Equity = (Equity – Scrap) / Total Days

Historical spot rates leave tight margins for covering costs and depreciation of equity, even before offhire

VLGC Investment Breakeven by Component

Margin

$2,993

$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000

Operating Expenses Amortized Drydocking Cost

Historical Finance Costs G&A

Recovery of Owners Equity Utilization

Margin

$31,027 Average Blended Spot

Rate (since 2000)

Assumptions • Long term NB price of USD $75m • Delivery cost of USD $2M • Useful life of 25 years (scrapped) • Scrap price of $300/ldt • Historical blended spot rates for 82k, 84k VLGCs

Assumptions continued • Loan-to-value of 60% • Quarterly payment of principal and interest • Loan profile of 15 years • Long term LIBOR (389 bp) plus margin (250 bp) • Utilization at 14 year historical average of 85.9%

Page 12: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

12

Historical VLGC Investment Performance vs Rates Over the last 16 years, VLGCs have shown poor aggregate investor returns

Source: Clarksons; BW LPG Analysis

Historical Annual VLGC Investment Cashflows ($m) vs. Spot Rates

Due to prolonged periods of lower freight rates, VLGCs have frequently operated below breakeven levels

$(1.0)

$(0.5)

$-

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

Cumulative Spot Earnings

Net Cashflow From Asset

Long Term Breakeven

Page 13: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

13

Cash Flows Of Recently Listed VLGC Owners Large financing gap due to shortfall between heavy growth capex program and insufficient, volatile cash flows

Source: Company filings Note: Recently Listed VLGC Owners consists of Dorian LPG, Avance Gas & Aurora LPG

Despite periods of high vessel earnings, VLGCs developed a substantial financing gap over the last three years

Financing Surplus / (Gap) For VLGC Owners By Year ($m)

Page 14: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

14

Historical VLGC Fleet & Ton-Mile Demand Growth Demand has been very strong with 3 consecutive years of >15% growth; unfortunately, so has fleet

growth

Cumulative fleet growth outpaced demand growth in 2016, with further deliveries due in 2017VLGC Fleet & VLGC Ton Mile Growth (Base 100 = Q1 2014)

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

VLGC Forecast Deliveries (RHS)

VLGC Deliveries (RHS)

Total Ton Mile Demand Growth

VLGC Fleet Growth

Source: Waterborne; BW LPG Analysis

Page 15: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

The use of LPG

15

Page 16: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

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LPG Demand Outlook

Substantial medium term growth potential for retail LPG demand across developing economies, driven by population growth

2015 Retail LPG Consumption (Kg per Capita)

11.0

8.3

0.6 1.4

3.2

13.3

16.9

-

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

-

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Vietnam Philippines Bangladesh Pakistan Sub-Saharan Africa India China

Population (MM People) Kg/Capita

Global Average - 17.4 kg

Page 17: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

Charter Earnings

Slow steaming to increase the number of vessels required per tonmile of trade, reduce bunker cost

Layup or demolition to tighten the supply of available tonnage

17

VLGC Owner Strategies Ship owners are exposed to both demand & supply side risk, which limits their ability to influence

freight

VLGC owners maximize their profitability by reducing cost, tightening supply or seeking

competitive advantage

Market Position

Joint ventures or pooling agreements to share risk, grow revenues and build competitive advantage

Consolidate through acquisition of assets

Increase LPG demand

Cost Minimization

CapEx reductions through restructuring, refinancing, minimizing G&A

OpEx reductions through efficiencies in purchasing & operations

Page 18: Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World · BW LPG in 2016 • Acquisition of Aurora LPG enhanced BW LPG’s position as a market leader in the LPG transportation segment. • Consistent

Delivering Energy for a Sustainable World

Thank You!

Delivering energy is in our DNA. As the

world’s leading LPG carrier, we deliver

clean energy through competitive and

sustainable solutions, creating lasting

value for society and our stakeholders.