deliberative working document - predecisional supporting the secretary’s top priorities brad...

Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional

Supporting the Secretary’s Top Priorities

Brad Berkson,

Director, OSD Program Analysis and Evaluation


Agenda

• Financial Realities

• FY08 Budget Overview

• Strategic Planning


Trends in Federal Spending(Outlays in billion of current dollars)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fiscal Years

Total Federal Outlays

Mandatory

Nondefense Discretionary

Defense Discretionary


Defense Spending in Context

40%

20%

1945 1965 1985 2005

Vietnam8.9%

Korea11.7% Gulf War

4.5% GWOT3.9%

DoD Outlays as Percent of GDP

DoD Outlays as Percent of GDP

WWII34.5%

• Defense spending is 3.9 percent of GDP– Lowest level for any

previous period of conflict

• This is significantly higher than our NATO allies– France: 2.5 percent

– UK: 2.3 percent

– Germany: 1.4 percent

– All NATO: 1.7 percent

Source: Source: Historical Table, Budget of the United States Government; FY 2007 President’s Budget

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

1945 1965 1985 2005

WWII82.5%

Vietnam43.4%

Gulf War19.8%

GWOT (2008)20.1%

DoD Outlays as Percent of Federal Spending

DoD Outlays as Percent of Federal Spending

Korea57.2%

199519751955


Total DoD Budget Authority

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

FY

06$B

KO

RE

A

VIE

TN

AM

RE

AG

AN

BU

ILD

-UP

GU

LF

WA

R

GW

OT


Benefits Growth from Past Congressional Actions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

TRICARE for Life Reservists HealthcareFamily Separation Allowance Survivor Benefit ProgramRedux Repeal Concurrent ReceiptEnhanced Death Benefits

$22.8B

Billions $

$17.4B

$12.7B

$21.4B$20.0B

$19.0B

Growth between FY03 ~ FY10

$13.9 Billion

$16.4B

$8.9B


Agenda





142

435481

302 328 375 377 403 421

7091

1417

76114

69

93

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08

DoD Base Budget and non-GWOT Supps. Supplemental

President’s Budget FY07 Allowance

Source: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2007, Table 1-9

Investing in America’s Defense(Dollars in Billions)

FY07 Supplemental Request

FY08 GWOT Request

316345

443468 479

535

598 623


Defense Budget

Source: Defense Appropriation Act and Emergency Supplemental Appropriation FY 2007 and FY 2008 DoD Budget Request

$432.4BFY07

Projected Enacted

Appropriation(Do

llar

s in

Bil

lio

ns)

FY07 Emergency SupplementalFY08 GWOT RequestFY08 Base Budget

• Increase Combat Capability

• Improve Force Readiness

•Develop Future Combat Capabilities

• Improve Quality of Life

• Increase Combat Capability

• Improve Force Readiness

•Develop Future Combat Capabilities

• Improve Quality of Life

•Prevail in the Global War on Terror

•Prevail in the Global War on Terror

$481.4B

$623.1B

$141.7B

FY07 FY08

$595.8B

$70.0B

$93.4B

$70.0B

$432.4BFY07

Projected Enacted

Appropriation

Priorities


Source: Defense Appropriation Act and Emergency Supplemental Appropriation FY 2007 and FY 2008 DoD Budget Request; FY06 Base Structure Report

The FY 2008 President’s Budget for Defense: $481.4B

30%

28%

4%

38%

Improves Force Readiness and Modernizes Warfighting Capabilities

Military Pay & Healthcare ($137.0B)

Family Housing & Facilities ($21.1B)

Strategic Modernization ($176.8B)

Readiness & Support ($146.5B)

$481.4B


$432.4 $481.4

FY07 FY08

Note: *Projected enacted totalSource: Defense Appropriation Act and Emergency Supplemental Appropriation FY 2007 and FY 2008 DoD Budget Request

Budget Provides Real Increases to Support the Warfighter

(Do

llar

s in

Bil

lio

ns)

+$49.0B

FY07FY07*

Improve Force Readiness &

Support+$16.8B

34%

Develop Future Capabilities

+$8.8B18%

Improve Quality of

Life+$11.3B

23%

FY07* FY08

Increase Ground Forces+$12.1B

25%

Base Budget Increases by $49.0B (+11.3%)Over Projected Enacted Level – Real Rate of Growth is 8.6%

+$49.0BFY08

+$49.0BFY08


Develop Future Capabilities

– 1 Aircraft Carrier

– 1 Submarine

– 1 Amphibious Assault Ship

– 1 Logistics Ship

– 3 Littoral Combat Ships

– 1 Joint High Speed Vessel

– 20 F-22A Raptor

– 24 F/A-18 Hornet

– 18 E/A-18G Growler

– 12 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter

– 21 MV-22 Osprey

– 5 CV-22

– UAVs

– Recapitalization of Missiles and Weapons

–Future Combat System:

• Manned and unmanned vehicles

• Non-line of sight launch system

• Joint network

–Space-Based Infrared Systems

–Communications Satellites

–GPS satellites

–Advanced Extremely High Frequency Satellite

–Environmental Satellites

–Launch Vehicles

+$8.8B

+$8.8BFY08

+$8.8BFY08

FY08 Budget Strengthens Current and Future Capabilities

Joint MaritimeCapabilities

Joint AirCapabilities

Joint GroundCapabilities

Space-basedCapabilities


Increased Combat Capability with Predictability

48 Brigade Combat Teams

Current Baseline FY 2012 Goal

42 Brigade Combat Teams Adds 65K Soldiers

+6 Brigade Combat Teams

Note: Number of BCTs in current state represent funded modular conversions, not force availability.

Add of 92,000 Ground Forces Increases Combat Capability and Doubles Time at Home Station

• 482.4K Soldiers

• 1 year Home Station for 1 year Deployed

• 547.4K Soldiers

• 2 years Home Station for 1 year Deployed

+$12.1BFY08

+$12.1BFY08

Army

Marines

3 Marine Expeditionary Forces

2.5 Marine Expeditionary Forces

Adds 27K Marines

Fills out 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force

• 175K Marines

• 7 months Home Station for 7 months Deployed

• 202K Marines

• 14 months Home Station for 7 months Deployed

Deliberative Working Document - PredecisionalSource: Defense Appropriation Act and Emergency Supplemental Appropriation FY 2007 and FY 2008 DoD Budget Request

FY 2008 GWOT Request

Source: Defense Appropriation Act and Emergency Supplemental Appropriation FY 2007 and FY 2008 DoD Budget Request

Reconstitution $37.6B

Security Forces: $4.7BMilitary Intelligence $2.7B

Coalition Support & CERP: $2.7B

Military Construction: $0.7B

Operations $70.6B

Non-DoD Classified $5.9B

Continuing the Fight Reconstituting the Force Enhancing U.S. Forces

Force Protection & IED Defeat: $15.2B

Request Provides Resources for Our Warfighters to Succeed

$141.7B

U.S. Forces: $1.6B

Accel. BCTs / RCT $1.6B

Continuing the Fight: $102.5B

(Permanent End Strength: $4.9B)


CONPLAN 7500Baseline Funding (CONPLAN 7500 / QDR Reserve)

FYDP +$3.9B

• Fund enduring GWOT sub-regional campaign plans• Improve battlespace awareness and counterterrorism analysis• Procure small commercial aircraft for GWOT engagement

activities• Other capability enhancements: CENTCOM infrastructure

improvements, foreign language incentives, personnel recovery programs, centers of excellence, etc.

Bridge Funding FYDP +$1.8B• Sustain / enhance CENTCOM C4

• Other capability enhancements: countermeasures for VIP aircraft, airborne ISR and medium aircraft leases for sub-regional campaign plans, etc.


Future Combat System

• Army POM restructures the FCS program

• Saves $110M FY08 and $3B across FYDP • Saves ~ $15B over the program (10%)• Reduces BCT average cost from $6.7B to $5.9B

• Cancels 4 systems: • Two classes of UAVs• Armed Reconnaissance Vehicle• Intelligent Munitions System

• Slows fielding from 1.5 FCS BCTs/yr to 1.0 FCS BCTs/yr

• Delays fielding 6 months• Completes fielding by FY30 vice FY25


Joint Strike Fighter

• Service POM 08 submissions funded procurement of two CTOL and no STOVL aircraft in FY08– PB07 had eight CTOL and eight STOVL aircraft in FY08

• Congress reduced FY07 procurement from 5 to 2 CTOL aircraft and funded long lead procurement of six CTOL and six STOVL aircraft in FY08– Directed funding of alternate engine in FY07 and beyond

• DepSecDef directed Services to fund the six CTOL and six STOVL aircraft in FY08 consistent with Congressional action (FY08 +$1.8B)– Risk in STOVL First Flight date– Alternate engine not funded

• Modest procurement reductions over FY09-13 (total of 17 A/C against POM08 submissions) to pay for:– Differences in Services re-pricing in POM08– SDD growth recognized by JPO


Agenda





• Shape/Prepare no longer lesser included

• Forces not resized to strategy, leading to mismatch

QDR 1997

Threat Based Capabilities Based

Force Planning Focus for Ongoing Efforts

2 MTW Force

Sh

ape

Res

po

nd

Pre

par

e

QDR 2001DEFEND THE U.S.

DETER FORWARDEurope, SWA, NEA, EAL

SWIFTLY DEFEAT ENEMYEFFORTS

2 of 4 Critical Areas

WIN DECISIVELY1 of 2 Conflicts

SMALL-SCALECONTINGENCIES

In Non-Critical Regions

GENERATION FORCE

C4ISR, MOBILITY

STRATEGIC RESERVE Frequency Number Scale / Intensity Concurrency Ops Risks Duration

Policy Environment Partner Capabilities

Frequency Number Scale / Intensity Concurrency Ops Risks Duration

Policy Environment Partner Capabilities

Sizing Variables:

QDR 2006


Irregular Unconventional methods adopted and

employed by non-state and state actors to counter stronger state opponents. (erode our power)

Disruptive International competitors developing and

possessing breakthrough technological capabilities intended to supplant U.S. advantages in particular operational domains. (marginalize our power)

Traditional States employing legacy and advanced

military capabilities and recognizable military forces, in long-established, well-known forms of military competition and conflict. (challenge our power)

Catastrophic Acquisition, possession, and possible

employment of WMD or methods producing WMD-like effects against vulnerable, high-profile targets by terrorists and rogue states. (paralyze our power)

Security Environment: 4 Challenges

LIKELIHOOD

VU

LN

ER

AB

ILIT

Y

Lower Higher

Higher

Lower

Capabilities-based planning should apportion risk across challengesCapabilities-based planning should apportion risk across challenges

(e.g., terrorism, insurgency, civil war, and emerging concepts like “unrestricted warfare”)

(e.g., conventional air, sea, land forces, and nuclear forces of established nuclear powers)

(e.g., sensors, information, bio or cyber war, ultra miniaturization, space, directed-energy, etc)

(e.g., homeland missile attack, proliferation from a state to a non-state actor, devastating WMD attack on ally)


What Drives Our Thinking / Time / Energy

• Budgets / FYDP• War Plans• TPFDD (Time-Phased Force Deployment

Data)• Requirements• Risk Assessments (Timelines)

Do these Processes Help Us Fight…Will our Investment ($3T / FYDP) Counter/Eliminate...

An Elusive Enemy What is the Definition of Victory in the GWOT?


Final Thoughts

Are We…• In a War

• Likely to Fight Massed Armies / Navies

• Countering Nation States

• Dealing with a Distant, Short-Lived Problem

Or…• In a Struggle

• Likely to Fight Small Groups / Networks

• Countering Extremists (Supported by Nation States?)

• Dealing with a Threat to World Freedom

While maintaining conventional forces that can dealwith emerging world situations

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