The National Water Census * Part of the Initiative

Overview of the Delaware River Basin Focus Area Study

Jeffrey M Fischer

fischer@usgs.gov609-771-3953

Delaware Source Water CollaborativeMay 8, 2014

Objective of the Water Census:

To place technical information and tools in the hands of stakeholders, allowing them to answer two primary questions about water availability:

Does the Nation have enough freshwater to meet both human and ecological needs?

Will this water be present to meet future needs?

Water Availability AnalysisThe process of determining the quantity and timing-characteristics of water, which is of sufficient quality, to meet human and ecological needs.

Technical InformationSocio-economic ConsiderationsLegal ConsiderationsRegulatory ConsiderationsPolitical Considerations

USGS only deals with the Technical Information!

Provide Enhanced Information On:StreamflowEvapotranspiration (ET)Ecological Flow NeedsGroundwaterWater Use and Consumption

Thermoelectric Power Irrigation Public Supply

Information available at:http://water.usgs.gov/watercensus

Daily ET from Satellite Data

Thermoelectric Consumptive Use

Information Delivery

A web application for delivering water availability information at scales that are relevant to the user

Select the area of interest.

Generate information on water accounting components.

Work with the online tool to construct your water budget.

Access trend information.

Example from French Creek

Beta version available on line in next few weekshttp://water.usgs.gov/watercensus

Focused Water Availability Assessments Testing grounds for the National Water Census

State, Local, RegionalStakeholder Involvement

Surface Water Trends, Precipitation, etc

Defined Technical Questions tobe Answered

Eco Flows

Water Use

Water Quality GroundwaterResources

Global Change

Delaware River Basin Focus Area Study

USGS Water CensusJeff Fischer, Susan Hutson, Jonathan Kennen, Kelly Maloney,

Marla Stuckey, Tanja Williamson, Ward Freeman, And many more

Study Started in 2012 and will conclude in 2015

Stakeholder Results – Areas of Study Water Use – Improved acquisition, management, and

integration of water-use and water-supply data. Robust Hydrologic Model – Evaluate growth of

population centers, effects of land-use change, and effects of climate variability and climate change on water resources

Ecological Water Needs – Development of ecological-flow science for main stem & tributaries. Evaluate flow alteration effects for ungaged tributaries. Improve decision support tool on main stem

Today’s talk focuses on Water Use and development of the Hydrologic Model.

Delaware River Basin Water Use

Temporal frameworkBase year 2010Multiple years as available

2005-2010 NJ and PA

Water-use transactionsWithdrawalsType of useReturn flows Interbasin transfersAquifer Storage and Recovery

Data Collection

Susan HutsonKristin LinseyRuss LudlowBetzaida ReyesJennifer Shourds

Delaware River Basin Water Use26,135 site-specific data records

single and multiple years 6,343 unique sites include 5 interbasin transfers

Areal estimates

Data Collection

Water Type Count PercentGroundwater 4,580 72

Surface water 1,001 16

Return flows 762 12

Livestock Irrigation Self-supplied Domestic

Total Water Use*7,000 Mgal/d

4,900 Mgal/d (70%) Thermoelectric Power Generation1,600 Mgal/d (23%) Public supply and Self-supplied domestic 290 Mgal/d (4%) Industrial, Commercial, and Mining 200 Mgal/d (3%) Irrigation, Livestock, and Aquaculture

Hydroelectric power is an “in stream" use and is not included in this calculation.*

92% Surface Water

8% Groundwater

Thermoelectric4,900 Mgal/d

>0 - 1010 - 100100 - 200200 - 300300 - 3100

0

Withdrawals,in Mgal/d

0%

100%

GW

SW

Fresh

Saline

40%

60%

Public Supply and Self-Supplied Domestic Withdrawals1,600 Mgal/d

Public supply withdrawals 1,500 Mgal/d

650 Mgal/d transferred out of basin

Self-supplied Domestic Withdrawals 120 Mgal/d

37%

63%

PS and DO Water Use

23%

77%

PS and DO Withdrawals

GWSW

Public SupplyPublic Supply Public Supply Public Supply Withdrawals Transfers Water Use

1 - 1010 - 100100 - 200200 - 300300 - 1000

0

Withdrawals,in Mgal/d

Determining Self-Supplied DomesticJack Monti and Jason Finkelstein

Domestic use data not collected by U.S Census since 1990. Developed current domestic use estimates from:• USGS National Water Use Information Program

• County use data every 5 years; 1985-2005• Estimates of total population served

• U.S. Census• Decadal data on population and housing units• Block groups and blocks were analyzed• 1990 census provided source of water information

per block group housing units

0 5000 10000 15000 200000

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Block GroupCut-off Limit100% Line95% Line

Population Density per Sq Mile

Pub

Supp

ly H

ouse

U

nits

%Pu

blic

Sup

ply

Hou

sing

Uni

ts (

perc

ent)

Statistical Determination of Domestic UseBuck County, PA Example

100 percent public supplyTop five % flip to public supply100 percent domestic self supply

Used population density 95th percent value to forecast/predict future years.

Example for Sussex County, Delaware

1990 Population of P.S. block groups (pink): 53,521

1990 Water-use Program P.S. population : 54,430

2000 Water-use Program P.S. population : 78,420

Predicted population for P.S. blocks in 2000 (light and dark purple): 83,819

Basin-Wide Decadal Predictions1990 2000 2010

Basin-Wide Results

Delaware River Basin Block Group Populations*

Year Total Public SupplyDomestic Self-

Supply Undetermined1990 7,590,442 6,313,877 1,276,565  2000 8,061,808 6,544,054 1,517,754  2010 8,579,716 6,929,628 1,649,175 913

*Population totals not fully apportioned to Delaware River Basin extent (Total includes parts of counties not fully in basin)

15%

85%

Industrial, Commercial,and Mining 290 Mgal/d Industrial

240 Mgal/d

Commercial 34 Mgal/d

Mining 18 Mgal/d 47%53%

23%

77%

GWSW 1 - 1010 - 100100 - 200200 - 300300 - 1031

0Withdrawals,in Mgal/d

Industrial,Commercial,& Mining

Agriculture200 Mgal/d*Irrigation 170 Mgal/d

Livestock 9.2 Mgal/d

Aquaculture 18 Mgal/d

56%44%

91%

9%

61%39%

GWSW 1 - 1010 - 100100 - 200200 - 300300 - 1031

0Withdrawals,in Mgal/d

Agriculture

* 60 percent of total was reported values

Rasterizing Estimated Livestock & Irrigation Data

Combined: 2010 USDA Crop Data Layer-CDL 2010 USGS county livestock or irrigation use dataAnd distributed by land use over county

Water Use Data Compilation & Dissemination

USGS SIR Report 2014 Web-portal data delivery

8-digit subbasin

data and methods

12-digit subbasin

data

426 subbasins

13 subbasins

Report out by end of calendar yearWeb tool available in 2015

Estimating Streamflow

Tool for predicting flow at ungaged basins based on correlation with historic flow at gaged sites – Marla Stuckey

Hydrologic model to evaluate how water stressors such as population growth, land-use change, and climate change affect the availability of water resources – Tanja Williamson

Both models are used in current evaluations and future predictions of ecological flow needs – Jonathan Kennen

WATER Hydrologic ModelWater Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) Used as a decision support tool to evaluate how water

stressors such as population growth, land-use change, and climate change affect the availability of water resources.

Model encompasses the whole non-tidal Delaware River Basin.

Validated using precipitation, water-use, streamflow, and other information for the time period 2001 to 2011.

Simulations of future streamflow and water-availability conditions centered on 2030 and 2060 will incorporate projected changes in water use, land use, and climate in the watershed.

Tanja N. Williamson, Jeremiah Lant, Elizabeth Nystrom, Scott Hoffman, and Hugh Nelson

WATER Hydrologic Modelbased on TOPMODEL

TOPography-based hydrological MODEL Developed by Beven and Kirkby, 1979 “Physically-based watershed model that

simulates the variable-source-area concept of streamflow generation.” (Wolock, 1993)

Three fundamental assumptions steady-state recharge to the groundwater hydraulic gradient of the water table ≈ the surface

slope transmissivity profile decreases exponentially

with depthBeven, K.J. and M.J. Kirkby. 1979. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Bulletin, v. 24, pp. 43-69. Wolock, David M. 1993. Simulating the variable-source-area concept of streamflow generation with the watershed model TOPMODEL. USGS WRI 93-4124.

Direct

Infiltration

Precipitation

EvaporationET

Sub-surface flowSaturatedAreas or

ImpermeableSurface

Wat

er B

udge

t

Over-land flow

Qout

TOPMODEL topographic wetness index

High values of TWI High potential for saturationLow values of TWI Low potential for saturation

Grid cells with the same TWI are hydrologically similar

Calculations need not be performed on every single grid cell.

slopeareangcontributiupslope

TWItan

ln

Soil CharacteristicsSSURGO Variables Calculated “m” Hydraulic conductivity (moderately

high or higher) Field Capacity Available Water Capacity Porosity Thickness

And…..

Scaling Parameter “m” computed from processed SSURGO data

m = readily drained soil porosity/rate of decrease with depth

Conductivity Multiplier

Scaling Parameter

mporosity field capacity

f

depthsoilmultipliertyconductivi

fln

Low-K High-K

sat

sat

WATER – A decision support tool

1-Ja

n11

-Jan

21-Ja

n31

-Jan

10-F

eb20

-Feb

2-M

ar12

-Mar

22-M

ar1-

Apr

11-A

pr21

-Apr

1-M

ay11

-May

21-M

ay31

-May

10-Ju

n20

-Jun

30-Ju

n05

101520253035404550 0

5101520253035404550

2003

Dis

char

ge (

mm

)Precipitation (m

m)

Precipitation Record or Forecast

Simulated Hydrograph

Changed climate Water availability

Validated Model

Current conditions

Current ConditionGaged Streams

Flow at ungaged sites

Land management and

water allocation decisions

Landscape Characterization

Scenarios Potential Uses

Landscape change

Resolution of Spatial Layers

Precipitation Record

WATER-TopModel

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

2.03

2.42

2.82

3.22

3.62

4.01

4.41

4.81

5.21

5.60

6.00

6.40

6.79

7.19

7.59

7.99

8.38

8.78

9.18

9.58

9.97

10.3

7

10.7

7

11.1

7

11.5

6

11.9

6

12.3

6

12.7

5

13.1

5

13.5

5

CTI

Frac

tion

of W

ater

shed Histogram

of TWI

Ksat

TWI

NLCD

Incorporate Water-Use Data

Seasonal Contribution to Annual Total

Withdrawals Returns/Discharges Transfers

426 basins

12.48 km2

to270.06 km2

Permit Number

P

erce

nt o

f 201

0 To

tal

Representative Values Long-term Median Seasonal

Data distributed over HUC 12 Basins. This will protect privacy information

Model Validation

Minimally impacted basins 1.5 to 675 km2 (0.6 to 261 mi2)

Comparison of streamflow estimates USGS streamflow data

Evaluate potential bias in water budget Snowpack PET

Sites will also be valuable for evaluating future land use change scenarios.

Reservoir Management System

Initial work focusing on basin areas upstream of reservoirs. Ultimately: WATER will export long-term

record of flow in OASIS format

Use OASIS for points downstream of reservoirs

Non-OASIS users will use lake delay

Snowpack Simulation – Upper BasinFl

ow

Sno

w

Simulation of EvapotranspirationPotential Evapotranspiration (PET) – Hamon (1963)

Simulated Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) – limited by soil-moisture availability

For Future Hydrologic Predictions WATER Model Needs Projections of Changes in:

Water Use

Climate

Land Use (subject of next talk)

Future: Global Circulation Models (GCM)

3736 basins10 km2

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5GCMs Previously used in the basin

NCAR CCSM GFDL ESM2G, NOAA GISS-E2-H, NASA CGCM4-CanES

Change factor (delta) approach

Target time periods 2030 2060

Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 RCP8.5

ModeledArea

GCMArea

6 – 10 Cells100 – 200 km2

RCP scenario conditions

At Conclusion of the Delaware Study Database of water withdrawal, use, and return flow

information for watersheds Tool to estimate daily streamflow from 1960 to 2010

for ungaged streams Hydrologic model of the non-tidal portions of the

watershed tributaries Flow and aquatic assemblage response relations for

tributaries An updated Decision Support System for sections of

the main-stem Delaware

Jeff Fischer Fischer@usgs.gov 609-771-3953