deepwater oil & gas market - quest offshore
TRANSCRIPT
1
Deepwater Oil & Gas Market Continued Acceleration Led by
Subsea Technology
Paul H. Hillegeist President & COO Quest Offshore Resources, Inc. [email protected] August 21, 2013
2
Table of contents:
Why Subsea? Market at Pinnacle & Going Higher
Forecast for Higher Offshore Spending
Current Landscape for Subsea Awards Robust Exploration Outlook
Rig Supply Driving Record Drilling Pace Key Regions – Forecast Growth Led by GoM & Africa Frontier Areas Offer Significant Potential
Subsea Award Trends & Forecast Global Supply Chain Potential Pinch Points
Shipyard Fabrication Capacity SURF Marine Construction Supply Engineering Manpower Subsea Systems (Wellheads, Trees & Assoc. Hardware) Tier 2 & 3 OEM Subsea Suppliers
3
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's 2010's
Ave
rage
Wat
er
De
pth
(Fe
et)
# S
ub
sea
Tre
es
Startup Decade
Number of New Subsea Trees Average Water Depth (Feet)
Global Subsea Trees by Decade Average Water Depth
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc
Products and market segments
Proxy for deepwater drilling & development activity
Subsea & related hardware components
Production umbilicals
ROV services & MarCon (URF install)
Subsea workover & intervention opportunities
4
World Subsea Production Capex 2013-2018e Forecast $74.5bn
Source: HolyGrail_August 2013.xls
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
Nu
mb
er
of
Sub
sea
Tre
e S
tart
up
s
KM
of
SPU
or
$M
M
Startup Year
$MM - subsea production umbilicals installed
$MM - subsea manifolds
$MM - tree control pkg (flying leads, jumper, MCS, HPU, UTA, J-Plate)
$MM - subsea trees & control pod: (chokes, sensor pkg.)
No. subsea trees (well completions) by onstream year
Km - subsea production umbilicals installed
Subsea Systems55%
Subsea Processing
23%
Subsea Whld6%
Subsea Assoc/Hardware
16%
2020 Global Subsea Spend $28.6 Billion
5
Subsea Tree Awards Largest 1H Activity in History
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Nu
mb
er
of
Sub
sea
Tre
e A
war
ds
Award Year
Q1 Q2 FY Awards
Source: Quest Subsea Database June 2013
2013 FY awards are preliminary forecast @ Aug. 2013
6
Global Subsea Tree Awards Multi-Year Trend Analysis (2000-2015)
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc
554
727
866775 754
9911055
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
# S
ub
sea
Tre
e A
war
ds
Award Timing
7
Global Exploration Outlook
8
Exploration Targets by Hemisphere 2009-2017 2,523 Undrilled Exploration Targets
No
. Exp
lora
tio
n T
arge
ts
Drilled includes 23 wells spud 1H-2013
Drilled includes 17 wells spud 1H-2013
Drilled includes 19 wells spud 1H-2013
Drilled includes 32 wells spud 1H-2013
Drilled includes 17 wells spud 1H-2013
SOURCE: Quest Global Prospects Quarterly June 2013
265 291
151
349415
576417
469
482
579
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Africa/Med. Asia-Pacific North America North Sea/Arctic South America
Drilled Undrilled
9
Key Regions – Africa (East, West & Med.) Exploration & Appraisal Drilling
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
E&
A W
ell C
ou
nt
Spud Year
>=7500 FSW
4001-7499 FSW
1501-4000 FSW
0-1500 FSW
SOURCE: QGPQ Exploration Working File June 2013/EXP FRCST 2009to2017
33-55 semis+dS
59-63 semis+dS 67% Growth
297 e&a wells
496 e&a wells
10
Key Regions – Asia Pacific Exploration & Appraisal Drilling
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
E&
A W
ell C
ou
nt
Spud Year
>=7500 FSW
4001-7499 FSW
1501-4000 FSW
0-1500 FSW
SOURCE: QGPQ Exploration Working File June 2013/EXP FRCST 2009to2017
278 e&a wells
363 a&a wells
50-53 semi+Ds
46-47 semi+Ds
31% Growth
11
Key Regions – North Sea Exploration & Appraisal Drilling
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
E&
A W
ell C
ou
nt
Spud Year
>=7500 FSW
4001-7499 FSW
1501-4000 FSW
0-1500 FSW
SOURCE: QGPQ Exploration Working File June 2013/EXP FRCST 2009to2017
35-48 Floating Rigs
50-55 Floating Rigs 309 e&a wells
434 e&a wells 41% Growth
12
Key Regions – GoM in North America Exploration & Appraisal Drilling
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
E&
A W
ell C
ou
nt
Spud Year
>=7500 FSW
4001-7499 FSW
1501-4000 FSW
0-1500 FSW
Effects of Post Moratorium period in US-GOM
SOURCE: QGPQ Exploration Working File June 2013/EXP FRCST 2009to2017
30-52 semis+Ds
414 e&a wells
160 e&a wells
61-66 semis+Ds 159% Growth
13
Key Regions – Brazil in South America
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
E&
A W
ell C
ou
nt
Spud Year
>=7500 FSW
4001-7499 FSW
1501-4000 FSW
0-1500 FSW
SOURCE: QGPQ Exploration Working File June 2013/EXP FRCST 2009to2017
64-82 semis+Ds 82-94 semis+Ds 418 e&a wells 516 a&a wells
Exploration & Appraisal Drilling
23% Growth
14
Emerging Frontier Regions
15
Exploration – Emerging Frontier Areas
18%
28%
12%
12%
3%
18%
9%
East Africa
West Africa
Mediterranean
Arctic
South America
North & Central America
Other
27%
43%
30%Super-Majors
Independents
Nationals
Today Led by 20 Operators w 33 Rigs
16
Exploration – Emerging Frontier Areas
East Africa (Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Madagascar)
West Africa (Angola Pre-Salt, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Benin, Namibia,)
Mediterranean (Israel, Cyprus, Libya, Morocco)
Arctic (Greenland, Norwegian Barents, Alaska, Kara Sea, Russian Barents)
South America (Falklands, French Guiana, Guyana, Suriname, Uruguay)
The Americas (Mexico, Bahamas, Nova Scotia, Nicaragua)
Ireland, Canary Is., SW Portugal & deepwater Red Sea. Black Sea, Okhotsk Sea & Myanmar
17
Subsea Award Trends
& Forecast
18
Global Subsea Tree Awards Multi-Year Trend Analysis (2001-2015)
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
# S
ub
sea
Tre
e A
war
ds
Award Timing
ROW South America
19
North Sea Subsea Tree Awards Multi-Year Trend Analysis (2001-2015)
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
# S
ub
sea
Tre
e A
war
ds
Award Timing
Norway UK Other
20
Africa Subsea Tree Awards Multi-Year Trend Analysis (2001-2015)
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
# S
ub
sea
Tre
e A
war
ds
Award Timing
Angola East Africa Nigeria North Africa Other Transform Margin
21
Asia Subsea Tree Awards Multi-Year Trend Analysis (2001-2015)
Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc
0
40
80
120
160
200
# S
ub
sea
Tre
e A
war
ds
Award Timing
Australia China India Other
22
Global Supply Chain
Potential Pinch Points
23
Growing Lead-times & Burgeoning Back-logs Global Fabrication Shipyard Backlog
0
172,250
344,500
516,750
689,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Date
To
nn
es
Type
Accommodation
Drill Semi
Drillship
Fixed Platform
FLNG
FPSO
FPU
FSO
FSRU
Jackup
MarCon
Onshore Modules
Semi
Spar
Tender Assist Rig
TLP
Turret
24
Marine Construction Supply / Demand Balance Worldwide by Activity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Uti
lizat
ion
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Day
s
Installation Year
SS Hardware, FPS & Other Demand 0-14,FLEX,SPU Demand 15-24 Pipeline Demand
25+ Pipeline Demand Net Supply Utilization
25
0
100
200
300
400
0
300
600
900
1200
Flo
atin
g R
ig S
up
ply
Tota
l We
ll D
em
and
Spud Year
Total Well Demand (Expl & Devp) Rigs Contracted Rigs Needed
Subsea Well Demand & Floating Rig Supply Analog for Subsea Wellhead Demand