decision and policy analysis may 2010
DESCRIPTION
May 2010 presentation on the DAPA program and highlights from 2009.TRANSCRIPT
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the PoorWWW.ciat.cgiar.org
Decision and Policy Analysis Program
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Note the looming climate change
cloud
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Contents – BUSINESS plan
• Our objectives and vision• Our outcomes, and some selected highlights• Progress over past 12 months with respect to
Business Plan:– Team– Infrastructure– Indicators
• Exciting new initiatives
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Our visionWe strongly believe in the power of information
for making better decisions about agricultural and natural resource investments, from the
farm- to the global- level.
Numbers. Maps. Graphs. Insights.
Better public and private policies
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Our modus operandi
Thematically diverse, united by spatial, economic and institutional analysis
Converting data to information to policy and decision insights
Demand-driven by other CIAT programs and partners needs in Latin America
Eco-efficiency as a guiding principle
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Our objectives and some selected highlights
• To maximize the impact and returns on investment of agricultural research and development through ex ante and ex post impact assessment
• To contribute to improved management of critical ecosystem services through pro-poor payment schemes for water and carbon in Latin America
• To fully understand the likely impacts of climate change on agricultural systems, livelihoods and critical ecosystem services, and identify best-bet adaptation strategies from local to global level
• To ensure that public and private sector policies provide the opportunity for smallholder farmers to profit from emerging market opportunities
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
• Impact culture– Impact assessment
workshops
• Assessing impact– CIAT/FLAR partnership
(rice/LAC)– PABRA initiative
(beans/Africa)– CIAT databases
(institutional)
EX POST IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
• Ex-post Impact Assessment of CIAT/FLAR partnership.– Regional study in LAC (15 countries)– Last 15 years evaluation (1995-2010)– Assess economic benefits and public-private alliance
importance.– FLAR-CIAT initiative– Expected outcomes are one master thesis, between two
and three peer review journals (comparative advantages among LAC countries, economic impact assessment, institutional relations among public-private sector).
– Budget: 10,000 USD
Ongoing Work
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
• Defining Impact of Improved Varieties for Beans.– Regional study in Sub Saharan Africa (10 countries,
main bean producers)– Last 10 years evaluation (1999-2010)– Assess economic benefits and PABRA intervention– CGIAR initiative, Gates funded– Expected outcomes are several peer review journals
and a chapter book for the CGIAR (economic impact assessment).
– Budget: 168,000 USD
Ongoing Work
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
EX POST IMPACT ASSESSMENT
• Strategic alliances– Standing Panel for
Impact Assessment– International Initiative
for Impact Evaluation– Impact Evaluation
Network – Local and International
Universities
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
• Trial site information • Add, edit, search & query information• Trial planning & analysis tools
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Seed Systems in Africa: spatial impact assessment
• Mapped the location of seed outlets of improved drought-tolerant bean varieties in Kenya
• Identified areas where the population demanding bean seeds are not covered
• Developed and applied heuristics for improving spatial coverage
• Investigated communication between producers, input merchants, seed suppliers and researchers
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Ecosystem services
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Benefit sharing mechanisms• Or, payment schemes for ES• Connecting economies
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Reasons for Failures in PES• High failure rate of PES, though
Latin America has been a test-bed
• Unreal expectations for PES• Lack of equity in benefit sharing• Poor or inappropriate
governance structures• High potential to create conflict,
rather than resolve it if implemented poorly
Numbers as a basis for dialogueSocial, natural and economic
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Modelling protocol
INVESTINVEST
ENTRADASENTRADAS
FIESTAFIESTA
Tabla de Coeficientes
Tabla de Coeficientes
Simulación INVESTSimulación INVEST
Producción de AguaProducción de Agua Sedimentos LiberadosSedimentos Liberados
Análisis de Impactos en caudales y sedimentos
Escenarios Cambio Uso
Escenarios Cambio Uso
Selección Áreas Priorizadas
Selección Áreas Priorizadas Caudales y SedimentosCaudales y Sedimentos
Generación GRIDS
Generación GRIDS
MEDMED Uso / SueloUso / Suelo Tipos de SueloTipos de Suelo
SubcuencaSubcuenca HRUsHRUs
Red HídricaRed Hídrica
Simulación SWATSimulación SWAT
Escenario ActualCaudal y Sedimentos
Escenario ActualCaudal y Sedimentos
SWATSWAT
Calibración y Validación
Caracterización por Uso / suelo /
pendienteCalcular
parámetrosCalcular
parámetros
MEDMEDNubesNubes VegetaciónVegetaciónClimaClima
Simulación
Flujo Neblina
Simulación
Flujo Neblina
Escenario ActualCaudal
Escenario ActualCaudal
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Multiple modelling approaches
Fiesta Invest Swat
Cantidad de agua(mm)
5045
2
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Definition of priority sites for interventions and quantification of benefits
Swat Invest
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Moving from case to case…Cuenca Embalse Rio GrandeII
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Near-real time monitoring of habitat change in Latin America
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Objectives of
• Provide near-real time monitoring of habitat change (<3 month turn-around)
• Continental – global coverage (forests AND non-forests)
• Regularity in updates
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
PARASID Colombia
• Direct usage for developing negotiation position of Colombia in Copenhagen
• September 2009 Colombia were going to COP15 with a figure of 100,000Ha/year deforestation
• Terra-i analysis identified MINIMUM 180,000Ha/year, most likely 250-300,000Ha/year
• Discussions underway for to become a 1st tier monitoring tool for National Parks
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Deteccion Acumulada en Hectareas
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
0.90
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
1/14/2004 5/28/2005 10/10/2006 2/22/2008 7/6/2009
Tiempo
Hec
tare
as 0.96
Promedio
Prom + Desv
Prom - Desv
Detecciones
• 76% coverage of country• Approx. 250,000Ha/year average• 90% increase in deforestation
rate 2004 - 2009
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
http://www.terra-i.org/
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Climate change and agricultural livelihoods
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2CCCMA-CGCM3.1
T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G
GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES
MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Decision making despite uncertainty
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Breeding priorities for a 2030 world
• During 2010 we further developed the Ecocrop approach (CIAT modified version)
• Moved from expert-based model to an empirically calibrated model
• Developed a protocol for identifying priority constraints under current and future climatic conditions
• Beans, cassava, banana and potato analysed and in press in Crop Adaptation book
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Cassava
Beans
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Also…
• Lao Adaptation Road map• Colombian climate change road map
– Sectoral analysis for Min. of Environment, UNDP– Lead to the drafting of a CONPES policy document– Now planning to go into sub-sectoral detail
• Many country- or crop- based case studies for range of partners
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Where we are moving…
• Pulling it together:– Ecosystem services
• Biodiversity• Water• Carbon
– Agriculture and livestock– Livelihoods C
LIM
AT
E
CH
AN
GE
What governance, institutions and policies are required to manage these multiple land-use demands?
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Science for impact: Linking Farmers to Markets
New business models for sustained trading relationships
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
2009 Activities Linking Farmers to Markets
• Successful hand-off of Central American Learning Alliance facilitation to CATIE; fully funded by partners.
• Development of a collaborative research project on the role of ICTs for smallholder inclusion in value chains underway.
• Implementation of the CUP project (private sector funding) on the Learning Alliance network (P. Laderach).
• Grounding Climate change in Central America proposal built on the Learning Alliance network (P. Laderach).
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
2009 Activities Linking Farmers to Markets
• Initiatives implemented in Africa (Gates) and LAC (Sustainable Food Lab)
• Methods and tools fully developed and in field testing• Engagement with major private sector companies including
ASDA Walmart, Sysco, Hershey’s, Kraft and Mars• Publications: FAO book chapter, Oxfam policy brief• 20 case studies documented in LAC, Africa and Asia• Second round of training and field manuals and publications
under way (2010 target)
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
2009 Activities Linking Farmers to Markets
• IFAD small grant – How can IFAD better partner systematically with the private sector in LAC to build more sustainable and inclusive supply chains (Guatemala / DR)
• Ford Foundation -- Assess the effect of public expenditure on supply chains in Colombia as a mechanism for the inclusion of the poor (under development)
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
THE TEAM
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
The Oldies
James Garcia Simon Cook Carlos Nagles Glenn Hyman Robert Andrade Mark Lundy
Simone Staiger Jorge Cardona Ana Milena Louis Reymondin Enna Diaz Lilian P. Torres
Jhon Jairo Hurtado Carolina González Silvia H. castaño Leader: Andy Jarvis Jhon OcampoAnton Eitzineger
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
The Youth
Daniel Jimenez Mike Salazar
Osana Bonilla F.
Ovidio Rivera
Juan Carlos AndradePeter Laderach
Natalia Uribe Nora CastañedaElizabeth Barona Katherin Tehelen
Lea Jehin
Mario Muñoz
Julián RamirezHector Tobón Martin Ayling Emmanuel Zapata
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
And the positively under-age
Vanesa Herrera Daniel Amariles
Audberto Quiroga
Victor A. LizcanoAngelica Ma. Henao
Carolina Argote D.
Oriana C. Ovalle Yuli Medina
Jeferson Valencia Jairo Guerrrero Miguel Idrobo
Carlos Navarro Carlos A. Ramirez
Antonio Pantoja David Rodriguez
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Blade
Arreglo de disco
Arreglo de disco
Alternate servers
Array disk
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
New positions• Postdoc level climate change specialist, to support modeling
approaches, part core funded – Research fellow position starting June
• Postdoc level site specific agriculture specialist to support projects in pipeline should they be approved – Starting June
• High level agricultural economist to take a lead on ex post impact assessment, core funded – Lower level postdoc recruited in conjunction with IFPRI
• Mid-level economist support staff to examine climate change impacts on livelihoods, part funded by core - Final selection process
• Second senior staff to support markets research pending approval of projects in pipeline – Funding for public policy postdoc, no candidate
• Hopes for recruiting a resource economist in June
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Our indicators• At least two peer reviewed, high quality ex post impact studies of
CIAT’s research products – FLAR and African Beans• At least 4 policy briefs in CIAT’s policy brief series – Behind
schedule, but we’ll catch up• Minimum 15 peer reviewed journal articles on topics that fit with
the thematic focus – 30% complete• Influencing at least 2 major policy decisions at the national, regional
or global scale in both private- and public- sectors – Working on it• Provide spatial datasets to at least 30,000 users globally - Achieved• Reaching at least 50,000 farmers with the products of our research
– Depends how you measure it• Training at least 80 key individuals each year in research approaches
– 60% completion
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Topography data3 countries in world NOT accessed in last year
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Our financial indicators
The general fund-raising goals of the program are to:
• Generate US$1.5m of special project funds per
year to maintain current staffing – 80% complete• Bring in US$150k of self generated income per
year through sale of data and technical services – 65% complete
• Meet institutional cost recovery targets, and indeed exceed them – 40% complete
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
New initiatives• Vulnerable populations as a target beneficiary of CIAT research products through increased resilience,
enhanced nutrition and greater capacity to commercialise products (proposal sent to USAID for pilot funding, significant opportunities exist in Colombia through USAID)
• Development of site-specific agriculture concepts and approaches to support enhanced agricultural productivity in both CIAT commodities and other crops, specifically in Colombia (proposal sent to ASOHOFRUCOL for fruits, plus significant demand from stakeholders in other crops)
• Understanding the economics and technological demand from intensification in the Amazon (through new CIM expert and the AI-SWEP)
• Adaptation road maps for multiple countries and regions (proposals for BID, plus national level governments)
• Ambitious new monitoring tools for examining natural resource degradation and crop distribution in near real time using MODIS satellite data (semi-funded currently by TNC, large opportunities in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Brazil for follow-up projects)
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Impact
Climate Change
Ecosystem Services
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Agricultura especifica por sitio compartiendo experiencias (AESCE)
aplicada a la producción de frutales en Colombia.
Cadenas productivas
(mango, aguacate, citricos, plátano)
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
The Concept• Production systems are highly heterogeneous• We need massive amounts of data to understand them,
in order to act and provide recommendations• Every farm is essentially an experimental station• Every crop cycle, management practice is an event
(trial, n)• Farmer’s learn and adapt from an n + 1 + 1 …..• Learning from collective knowledge far more powerful
(n of 1,000s)• But, all ‘trials’ go uncompiled – we learn, but not
enough
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Hypothesis
If it were possible to compile the information on what the farmer did and characterize the conditions of a large number of these experiments it would be possible to deduce optimum practices for specific conditions
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
The Opportunity• Existence of “glocal” datasets on environment and
socio-economies – these are global in extent, and local in relevance which can characterize any on-farm experiment that takes place
• Capture and delivery mechanisms for information through ICTs – mobile phones, internet– Move information, up, down, across, round and about
• An organizing world – revolution in rural organizations around supply chains– Bottom-up revolution in farmer organisation
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Naranja
Antioquia produce más naranjacon la mitad de las hectáreas cultivadas en Tolima Oportunidad
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Antioq
uia
Tolim
a
Cesar
Cundin
amar
ca
Magd
alena
Bolíva
r
Risara
lda
Córdo
ba
Norte
San
tande
r
Cauca
Atlánt
ico
Sucre
Boyac
á
La Gua
jira
Vichad
a
Caque
tá
Amazo
nas
Caldas
Santa
nder
Has
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
To
ns
Area Producción
Departamento Área (Has)
Producción (Tons)
Rendimiento(Kg/ha)
Antioquia 1,163 35,796 30,035
Tolima 2,413 20,818 8,625
Cesar 1,884 20,567 11,023
Cundinamarca 1,440 14,185 9,939
Magdalena 483 9,064 18,772
Bolívar 353 6,113 7,453
Risaralda 156 5,577 10,213
Córdoba 262 5,207 18,836
Fuente MADR (promedio 2002- 2008)
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Grounding Climate Change in Central America: Blending science and community
knowledge to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies
• Improved climate change projections for Central America• Methods that allow local communities to access climate
change models to develop local participatory adaptation, mitigation and risk-management strategies with a gender focus;
• Feedback loops to gather, assess and share community-level climate observations horizontally for farmer to farmer extension
• Economic impact and multi-criteria analysis• Public and private policy incidence strategies
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Grounding Climate Change in Central America: Blending science and community knowledge to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies
Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Open Issues
• Expansion into other regions? Can we manage that?
• How much growth? What program size can we sustain?
• The need for real public policy experts, but difficulties in finding individuals