decision analysis and its applications to systems engineering incose/scea november 18, 2009 navy...
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Decision Analysis and Its Applications to Systems EngineeringINCOSE/SCEA
November 18, 2009
Navy Aircraft Carrier Gap AnalysisJustin Hornback & Robin Smith
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The Naval Aviation Enterprise (NAE) Carrier Readiness Team (CRT)required holistic view for assessing strategic plans for futureaircraft carrier availability
Problem: The NAE CRT required a holistic understanding of the risks associated with the looming aircraft carrier availability gap and how best to handle these risks.
– Reduction in number of aircraft carriers from 11 to 10, planned retirement of USS Enterprise 2012
– Demand for aircraft carrier deployment unchanged
Several important questions needed to be addressed:
– How does risk impact aircraft carrier operational availability (Ao)?
– What are the cost and schedule impacts of risk?
– How should mitigation dollars be prioritized against high-impact risks?
– Is historical data useful for future planning?
– How does one carrier in the enterprise(portfolio) impact the others?
Previous attempts to address this problem were largely qualitative in nature and lacked a rigorous analytical framework and incorporated no uncertainty or risk.
Applied the operational RISC-IQTM methodology to this problem to address these challenges.
Constrained Resources and Emphasis on Efficiency MakesUnderstanding Risks Essential to Carrying Out Strategic Objectives
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NAE Risk Methodology
Risk ModelingRisk Modeling
Historical Data Analyses
Risk ID & Foundational
Efforts
Stakeholder Collaboration
Risk Mapping
ConstraintsObjectives
Definitions
Assumptions
DRAFT
ConstraintsObjectives
Definitions
Assumptions
FINAL
(Key Inputs Discussed & Reviewed)
Aircraft Carrier Operations
(Data Gathered, Trends & Outliers Analyzed)
(Initial Data Gathering & Formulation; Risks Identified from a Variety of Sources)
(Discrete Risks Mapped to Cost Elements & Schedule Tasks)
Risk A
Risk B
Cost ScheduleRisk
Cost Schedule
Stakeholder Survey
Survey Results
1 2 3 4
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NAE Risk Methodology (cont’d)
Risk ModelingRisk Modeling
Translation to Availability Metrics
Risk Modeling
Sensitivity Analyses
Recommendations
Cost/ Schedule Drivers
0100200300400500600
20092010201120122013201420152016
FY
08$
M
Cost ScheduleRisk
(Simulations Run to Evaluate Risk Impacts on Cost &
Schedule)
(Simulation Results Compiled, Aggregate Ao Metrics Calculated)
(Simulation Data Analyzed, Excursions Run, “What If” Cases
Developed)
(Results Compiled & Recommendations Formulated)
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2022242628303234
Months Meeting Availability Objective
Cu
mu
lativ
e P
rob
abili
ty
Ao Metrics
Strategic Focus Areas:
- A, B, C Maintenance Schedules During Months D, E, F - System Dependency G - Bottleneck Point H - Costs of I, J, K - Stakeholder L
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Schedules were overlaid upon another to create the “S” curve from the Monte Carlo simulations
= Multiple Scenario generation
Slope of S curve relates the amount of risk associated with a scenario
Months achieving desired readiness level (48 max)
Likelihood (Percentage)
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Key Challenges
Client’s first application of this methodology
Politically charged environment
– Potential conflict with previous Congressional Briefings
Diverse stakeholders
– World-wide implications
Initial resistance due to client’s unfamiliarity with the process
– Report Card of performance
Client used to stand-alone (i.e., stoplight chart) risk management that did not reveal the range of potential outcomes
– Optimistic Schedules
Complex environment with intricate interdependencies
– Cyclical critical path
– Resource constraints, industrial complex
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Applying the RISC- IQ methodology supplied the client with information required to make informed decisions
This process was beneficial in that it..– Quantified the intuition of industry stakeholders
• Specified availability of assets
– Examined the root cause of schedule divergences
– Allowed the client to build confidence in their ‘go forward’ plan
– Built a foundation from which further analyses can be conducted
• Expansion outside of Aircraft Carriers
– Generated a portfolio of risk models
• Each risk model represented a unique compilation of data which created…
Quantifiable and Defendable Results
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Aircraft Carrier Maintenance Stack-Up
September 2009, four carriers in carrier maintenance at Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, Newport News (NGSB NN) creating work capacity risks across all four carriers.
– 36% of aircraft carrier fleet
2004 CV/CVN Maintenance Availability Schedule projected 1 carrier at NGSB – September 2009
– CVN 65 EDSRA
Risk Analysis of 2004 CV/CVN Maintenance Schedule projects potential of 3 carriers - September 2009
– CVN 65 EDSRA (>90%)
– CVN 70 PSA/SRA (50%)
– CVN 77 PSA/SRA (80%)
– (% likelihood/potential of CVN maintenance event occurring at NGSB NN - September 2009)
CVN 71 RCOH was not projected due to the 2004 scheduled RCOH start date of 11/2009. This date was moved up to 9/2/2009 during CVN 71 RCOH planning in 2007.
