december 5, 2014...gasoline prices have fallen below $2.00 gallon in some parts of the us housing...

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1 December 5, 2014 FBIC Global publication: Retail research weekly insights December 5, 2014 Black Friday is no longer a one-day affair and Thanksgiving holiday spending is clearly moving online, with mobile playing a major role Gasoline prices have fallen below $2.00 gallon in some parts of the US Housing prices were flat in October, and housing starts rose Third-quarter earnings continue to trickle in, with most retailers reporting YoY revenues declines DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director-Head Global Retail Research and Intelligence Fung Business Intelligence Centre [email protected] New York: 646.839.7017 Supported by Teresa Lam Fung business intelligence center – Head Asia Distribution and Retail teresalam@fung 1937.com Hong Kong: 852.2300.2466

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Page 1: December 5, 2014...Gasoline prices have fallen below $2.00 gallon in some parts of the US Housing prices were flat in October, and housing starts rose Third-quarter earnings continue

       

    1

December 5, 2014

FBIC Global publication: Retail research weekly insights

   

December 5, 2014

Black Friday is no longer a one-day affair and Thanksgiving holiday spending is clearly moving online, with mobile playing a major role Gasoline prices have fallen below $2.00 gallon in some parts of the US Housing prices were flat in October, and housing starts rose Third-quarter earnings continue to trickle in, with most retailers reporting YoY revenues declines

D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r - H e a d G l o b a l R e t a i l R e s e a r c h a n d I n t e l l i g e n c e F u n g B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e C e n t r e d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m N e w Y o r k : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7 S u p p o r t e d b y T e r e s a L a m F u n g b u s i n e s s i n t e l l i g e n c e c e n t e r – H e a d A s i a D i s t r i b u t i o n a n d R e t a i l t e r e s a l a m @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m H o n g K o n g : 8 5 2 . 2 3 0 0 . 2 4 6 6

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December 5, 2014

FBIC Global publication: Retail research weekly insights

   

FROM  THE  DESK  OF  DEBORAH  WEINSWIG    

The  FBIC  Global  team  spent  the  past  holiday  weekend  checking  out  the  Black  Friday  scene,  visiting  several  hundred  stores  in  multiple  locations,  including  Hawaii  and  even  London—yes,  Black  Friday  has  taken  that  city  (and  parts  of  Europe,  Australia  and  the  Middle  East)  by  storm,  despite  the  lack  of  a  Thanksgiving  Day.  Black  Friday  has  become  a  global  US  export!    

We  published  our  Thanksgiving/Black  Friday  Spending  Recap  issue  earlier  this  week,  but  here  are  some  highlights:    

For  us,  the  most  surprising  change  from  previous  Black  Fridays  past  was  the  relative  calm  of  the  day  itself:  no  stampeding  hordes,  no  trouble  finding  a  parking  space  

and  no  long  lines  at  checkout.  There  are  a  few  explanations  for  this:  Black  Friday  is  no  longer  a  one-­‐day  affair,  though  it  still  attracted  the  most  foot  traffic  of  the  four-­‐day  span.    Bargain  hunters  are  now  rushing  to  retailers  opened  on  Thanksgiving  Day  (that’s  when  we  saw  lines  winding  around  buildings  and  stores  doing  crowd-­‐control).  The  nearly  month-­‐long  cascade  of  special  pre-­‐Black  Friday  deals  also  siphoned  off  sales.    

Thanksgiving  holiday  spending  is  clearly  moving  online,  with  mobile  playing  a  major  role.  Though  estimates  vary,  the  data  show  that  retailer  e-­‐commerce  sales  grew  by  leaps  and  bounds  this  year.  Interestingly,  early  and  longer  promotions  have  diminished  Cyber  Monday  one-­‐day  dominance,  with  sales  up  8%  YoY  (according  to  IBM),  versus  growth  of  nearly  21%  last  year.    

Meanwhile,  “everywhere,  anytime”  holiday  shopping    is  here  to  stay,  as  consumers  ping-­‐ponged  from  physical  to  stores  to  desktops,  laptops  and  smartphones  to  do  their  browsing  and  gift-­‐buying—and,  to  many  retailers’  glee,  making  impulse  purchases  for  themselves  and  loved  ones  along  the  way.  Mobile  traffic  accounted  for  roughly  38%  of  all  online  traffic  and  20%  of  online  sales,  both  up  around  30%  from  last  year.    

Though  traffic  and  sales  were  soft  versus  prior  years,  merchants  that  offered  maximum  (and  seamless)  channel  maneuverability—along  with  great  deals  and  free  shipping—won  the  day.  From  all  accounts,  tech-­‐savvy  department  stores  and  big-­‐box  retailers  reported  a  banner  five-­‐day  stretch.  Our  channel  checks  reveal  that  heavily  discounted  high-­‐end  apparel,  tablets,  TVs,  sheets,  kid’s  clothing  and  video  games  were  the  best  sellers  this  year.    

There’s  another  phenomenon  that  gives  us  great  hope  for  sales  gains  in  the  of  3%-­‐5%  range  this  holiday  season:  Gasbuddy.com  predicted  that  gas  stations  across  the  US  would  offer  $2.00  per  gallon  gas  by  Christmas.  Prices  have  already  fallen  below  that  level  in  parts  of  the  South  and  Midwest.  We  haven’t  seen  pump  prices  this  low  since  the  depth  of  the  recession  in  March  2009.  Though  forecasts  of  the  potential  boost  to  consumer  spending  vary  widely,  most  analysts  agree  that  the  biggest  beneficiaries  will  be  discounters  with  the  largest  store  footprints.    With  signs  that  energy  prices  are  likely  to  stay  low  or  fall  further,  the  outlook  for  US  consumer  spending  in  2015  just  keeps  getting  brighter  and  brighter.  

     

Oxford  Street,  London  

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December 5, 2014

FBIC Global publication: Retail research weekly insights

 

US  WEEKLY  TRAFFIC  AND  SALES  INDICES  (12/3)    

Figure  1.  ShopperTrak  Weekly  US  Traffic  YoY%  

 Through  November  28,  2014  Source:  ShopperTrak  

• US  store  traffic  fell  by  just  1%  YoY  for  the  week  ended  Nov.  28,  the  smallest  decline  since  December  2013  as  Thanksgiving  and  Black  Friday  promotions  drove  people  to  stores.    

• November  traffic  ended  1.7%  YoY,  or  the  best  monthly  traffic  showing  since  August  2012  as  predicted.    

• Winter  apparel  and  gear  benefited  from  improved  traffic  during  a  cold  Thanksgiving  weekend;  electronics  store  sales  rose  by  mid-­‐single  digits  

 

Figure  2:  ICSC  Weekly  Sales  Estimate  YoY%    

 Through  November  28,  2014  Source:  ICSC  

Figure  3:  Johnson  Redbook  US  Weekly  Sales  Estimate  YoY%  

 Through  November  28,  2014  Source:  Johnson  Redbook  

Note:  The  differences  between  the  two  index  results  reflect  differences  in  coverage  and  methodology.  The  ICSC-­‐Goldman  Sachs  index  is  a  statistically  derived  estimate  of  industry  sales  that  is  weighted  by  sales  volume.  Redbook’s  index  encompasses  13  retailers,  spanning  specialty  apparel,  department  stores  and  discounters.  

• According  to  ICSC,  US  retail  sales  had  the  best  weekly  sales,  +2.8%  YoY  in  six  weeks,  due  to  aggressive  promotion  in  the  extended  Black  Friday  Week.  As  gas  price  is  at  $2.80  per  gallon,  or  15.1%  below  last  year’s  price,  ICSC  is  projecting  a  4%-­‐5%  increase  in  overall  November  sales.  However,  department  and  non-­‐speciality  stores  remain  weak.    

• Johnson  Redbook  data  showed  a  4.8  %  YoY  gain  for  the  same  week  ended  November  29;  discount  stores  strongly  outperformed  (up  5.7%),  while  department  stores  lagged  (up  3.3%)  Redbook  expects  a  4.5%  gain  in  December.    

(6)  

(5)  

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(1)  

0    

09/12   09/26   10/10   10/24   11/07   11/21  

0    

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09/12   09/26   10/10   10/24   11/07   11/21  0  

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09/12   09/26   10/10   10/24   11/07   11/21  

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December 5, 2014

FBIC Global publication: Retail research weekly insights

   

US  RETAIL  HEADLINES  OF  THE  WEEK    RetailNext   reported   that   in-­‐store   sales   declined   (-­‐11.0%)   YoY,   as   an   (-­‐11.45%)   drop   in  store   traffic  was  offset  by  a  +0.1%  gain   in   the   conversion  of   shoppers   into  buyers.   The  sharp  drop   in  both   traffic  and  sales   is  directionally  a  shift   in   the  prevailing   trend  of   the  past   few   months   when   we   saw   sequentially   diminishing   YoY   declines.   A   contributing  factor  to  the  traffic  decline  was  ecommerce  momentum,  with  comScore  reporting  a  15%  gain   in   digital   sales   to   $22.7   billion   for   the   first   28   days   of   November   (through   Black  Friday).   On   the   plus   side,   average   transaction   value   (ATV),   which   turned   negative   in  October  for  the  first  time,  is  back  in  positive  territory,  at  +0.9%,  despite  the  high  level  of  promotional   activity   prevalent   through   November   and   leading   up   to   and   through  Thanksgiving  and  Black  Friday  weekend.    Conversion  was  has  been  a  positive  metric  for  the   past   four   months,   suggesting   consumers   arrive   with   a   planned   expenditure.   We  believe  more  browsing  is  taking  place  online.      

Black   Friday   holiday   promotions   drive   store   traffic.     In   terms   of   highs   and   lows   for   the  month,   Black   Friday   experienced   the   highest   sales,   traffic   and   transactions,   while  conversion  hit  its  peak  on  November  20.  The  lowest  traffic  and  transactions  occurred  on  November  3,   likely  reflecting  weather   in  early  November,  which  was  relatively  cold  and  severe,  hindering  store  traffic  overall.      

By   region,   YoY   traffic   comparisons   were   the   softest   in   the   Northeast   (-­‐13.4%)   and  strongest   in  the  Midwest   (-­‐5.5%);  ATV  was  weakest   in  the  Midwest,  at   (-­‐2.4%),  and  all  other  regions  reported  positive  growth  in  ATV,  led  by  the  northeast,  +1.5%  and  closely  followed  by  the  west,  at  +1.4%.    

 

Comprehensive  In-­‐Store  Analytics  (Average  %  YoY  Change)    

   

 

Sales  

Traffic  

Transactions  

Conversions  

%  Return

Average  Transaction  

Value

 Sales  Per  Shopper

Nov.   (11.0)%   (11.4)%   (11.7)%   0.1%   (0.6)%   0.9%   0.4%  

Oct. (3.10)%   (4.50)%   (1.70)%   0.8%   (1.00)%   (1.30)%   1.8%  

Sept. (4.1)%   (5.9)%   (4.6)%   0.3%   (1.1)%   0.7%   (0.4)%  

Aug. (4.0)%   (7.9)%   (5.9)%   0.4%   (1.0)%   2.0%   4.2%  

July (4.5)%   (7.8)%   (9.5)%   (0.1)%   (1.1)%   6.7%   3.5%  

 

     

As  of  December  5,  2014  Source:  RetailNext    

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December 5, 2014

FBIC Global publication: Retail research weekly insights

 

 Abercrombie  &  Fitch  (ANF)  sees  trends  weaken  across  all  brands  in  3Q   (December  3).  Consolidated  comps  decreased  (-­‐10%),  reflecting  a  

(-­‐6%)  drop  at  adult  A&F,  (-­‐10%)  at  kids  and  (-­‐12%)  at  Hollister.    By  geography,  US  comps  were   (-­‐7%)   and   international   comps   (-­‐15%).   Trends   in   China  were   positive,   improving  sequentially   from   2Q   and   reporting   a   positive   comp.   During   3Q,   A&F   opened   its   first  mall-­‐based  store  in  Chengdu,  China  and  is  encouraged  by  the  growth  potential  for  both  A&F   and   Hollister   in   there.   By   product   category,   tops   suffered   steep   drops   in  comparables,  while  bottoms  comped  positively,  with  denim  doing  well  and  dresses  very  strong.   US   outlets   comps   were   up   10%,   benefiting   from   made-­‐for-­‐factory   product.  Progress  on  the  omnichannel  front  includes  ship-­‐from-­‐store  at  730  US  locations,  order-­‐in-­‐store  at  660  stores,  and  reserve  in-­‐store  and  in-­‐store  pickup  will  be  activated  in  2015.    Guidance   is   for   4Q   comps   to   decline   by   mid-­‐to   high   single   digits   and   a   higher   gross  margin  YoY  (versus  59%),  but  lower  than  the  YTD  gross  margin  rate  of  62%.    ANF  shares  traded  up  3.5%  on  Dec.  3.  Company  press  release  and  conference  call  

  One-­‐hundred   days   back   at   Aéropostale   (ARO),   Julian   Geiger  articulates   path   to   profitable   growth   (December   3).   In   tandem  with   3Q   results:   sales  down   (-­‐12%),   comps   (-­‐11%)   and   doubling   of   the   loss   per   share   to   ($0.66),   CEO   Julian  Geiger   spoke   about   organizational   change;   disciplines   and   confidence-­‐building,   brand  positioning  and  assortments;  and  assortment  planning  and  allocation  to  drive  sales  and  gross  margin.  A  significant  reduction  in  sub-­‐brands  will  allow  for  accelerated  growth  of  key  proprietary   sub-­‐brands,   focusing  on  Tokyo  Darling   in  girls  and  Brooklyn  Calling   for  guys.  The  mandate  is  to  juggle  the  contradiction  of  the  14-­‐to-­‐17-­‐year-­‐old  who  wants  to  dress  with  individuality  but,  at  the  same  time,  wear  a  “uniform”  that  makes  him  or  her  cool   and   fit   in.   Trends   improved   through   most   of   November,   with   a   low-­‐single-­‐digit  comp   gain   and   increases   in   gross-­‐margin   dollar   contribution   until   Thanksgiving  weekend,  when  comps  declined  about   (-­‐15%).  Guidance   for  4Q   is   for  a  net   loss   in   the  range  of  ($0.37)  to  ($0.44)  per  share,  and  Aéropostale  entered  4Q  with  inventory  down  20%   YoY,   16%   on   a   square   foot   basis.     ARO   shares   traded   down   22.3%   on   Dec.   4.    Company  press  release  and  conference  call  

Moody’s   lowers   outlook   for   Amazon   (AMZN)   (December   1)   to  negative   from   stable,   and   affirmed   its   Baa1   senior   unsecured   rating,   in   reaction   to  Amazon's  announcement  that  it  was  issuing  a  sizeable,  yet  to  be  determined  amount,  of  new  senior  unsecured  notes.  Proceeds  of  the  notes  are  to  be  used  for  general  corporate  purposes   supporting   Amazon's   growth   initiatives.   The   additional   notes   will   further  exacerbate  Amazon's   already  weak   interest   coverage  due   to,   among  other   things:   the  lack  of  visibility  surrounding  the  cadence  for  deployment  of  proceeds,  potential  areas  of  future   growth   and   investment   utilizing   these   proceeds,   and   the   timing   of   potential  positive  returns,  according  to  Moody's.  Concurrently  Moody’s  affirmed  Amazon’s  Baa1  rating  due  to  Amazon’s  “excellent  liquidity.”  AMZN  shares  closed  down  (-­‐3.7%)  on  Dec.  1.  Company  press  release  

American  Eagle  (AEO)  reports  flat  Q3  revenues,  continues  to  close  more  stores   (December  4).  AE’s  3Q  revenues  were  $854  million,  flat  YoY,  based  on  a  (-­‐5%)  decrease  in  comps.    Gross  margins  were  36.9%,  up  207  b.p.  YoY.    Inventories   increased   +60.7%   YTD   but   decreased   (-­‐9.7%)   YoY.     Inventory  

cost  per  foot  declined  14%.    Based  on  a  review  of  its  store  fleet  and  their  performance,  the   company   impaired   48   AE   and   31   aerie   stores.   Guidance   was   for   Q4   EPS   of  approximately   $0.30-­‐$0.33,   excluding   potential   asset   impairment   and   restructuring  charges,  vs.  $0.27  YoY.  AE  shares  traded  down  (-­‐11.8%).  Company  press  release  

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FBIC Global publication: Retail research weekly insights

 

Gap   (GPS)   reports   strong  November   comp   led   by   standout   performance   at  Old  Navy  (December  4).  Comp  performance  across  the  brands  was  bifurcated:  value-­‐priced  Old  Navy  led  with  an  +18%  comp  followed  by  a  +2%  comp  gain  at  

Banana   Republic,   while   comps   declined   (-­‐4%)   at   Global   Gap   brand,   reflecting   ongoing  challenges,  especially  in  women’s.  This  contrasts  with  increasing  momentum  in  women’s  at   Old   Navy.   Sales   performance   was   particularly   strong   on   Veteran’s   Day   as   well   as  Thanksgiving  and  Black  Friday.    GPS  shares  traded  up  0.4%  on  Dec.  5.  Press  release  and  conference  call  

  Guess?   (GES)   sees  overall   trends  weakening  heading   into  4Q  (December  3).  Guess   reported  better   than  projected  3Q  EPS  of  $0.24  versus   its  guidance  of  

$0.15  to  $0.20  and  $0.42  YoY,  despite  a  (-­‐4%)  sales  decline.  Retail  was  down  in  all   geographies,   offset   by   flat   wholesales   revenues.   Same   store   sales   comparisons   at  Marciano   were   ~10%   and   are   gaining   momentum   heading   into   December   and   North  American  e-­‐commerce  was  another  bright  spot  during  3Q,  accreting  at  a  38%  pace  to  $17  million   (less   than   3%   of   3Q   sales).   Although   IMU   improved,   net   merchandise   margins  decreased  due  to  steeper  markdowns.    4Q,   including  Thanksgiving  weekend,  has  seen  a  slowdown   in   North   America   retail   in   tandem   with   weak   traffic   and   conversion,   while  European  retail  comps  are  up   in  the   low  single  digits.  Fashion  denim  has  picked  up  and  women’s  outerwear  is  enjoying  sales  growth.  4Q  guidance  is  for  sales  of  $695-­‐710  million  (vs.  $768M  YoY)  and  EPS  of  $0.53-­‐0.63  (vs.  $0.83  YoY).  FY  14  guidance  was  brought  down  to  $2.42-­‐2  43  billion  from  $2.44-­‐2.48  billion  on  the  top  line  EPS  of  $1.00  -­‐1.10  from  $1.05-­‐1.20.  GES  shares  traded  down  (-­‐9.5%)  on  Dec.  4.  Company  press  release  and  conference  call  

LBrands  (LB)  reports  +8%  November  comps  (December  4).  For  the  four  weeks  ended  Saturday  November  29,   L  Brands  bucked  prevailing  weak  mall   traffic  and   reported   a   +6%   comp   at   Victoria’s   Secret   and   +11%   at   Bath   &   Body  Works.   Both  brands  had  record  Black  Fridays.  Merchandise  margin  rate  was  roughly  flat  to   last  year,  reflecting  expansion  at  Victoria’s  Secret  and  Bath  &  Body  Works,  offset  by  exiting  various  apparel   categories   in   the   Victoria’s   Secret   Direct   business.  With   inventories   down   14%  per   square   foot   entering   December,   along   with   current  momentum,   which   is   likely   to  build   at   Victoria’s   Secret   with   the   airing   of   the   Victoria’s   Secret   Fashion   Show   on  December  9,  FBIC  Global  sees  strong  productivity   in  the  remainder  of  FQ4  for  L  Brands.  LB  shares  traded  up  0.6%  on  Dec.  4.  Company  press  release  

PVH   (PVH)   reports   solid  Q3,  offset   currency  headwinds   (December  4).  PVH’s  third-­‐quarter  revenues  were  $2.23  billion,  a  2%  increase  when  adjusted  for  the  sale  of  the  Bass  business.  Management  described  macro  third-­‐quarter  business  

trends   in   all   distribution   channels   as   volatile,   though   business   rebounded   towards   the  end  of  November.     The  main  growth  driver  was   revenue   from  Calvin  Klein  USA,  whose  revenues  were  up  5%  YoY  on   comps  of   +5%  and  a   square   footage  expansion.  Revenue  from  Tommy  Hilfiger  increased  1%  YoY,  driven  by  3%  in  USA  growth  on  +1%  comps  plus  square  footage  expansion.    Revenue  from  Heritage  Brands  increased  3%  YoY  adjusted  for  the  sale  of  the  Bass  business,  including  a  6%  increase  in  wholesale  and  a  (-­‐6%)  decrease  in  retail  comps.    The  gross  margin  was  52.3%,  an  increase  of  79  bps  YoY.    Inventory  was  $1.2   billion,   up   6.5%   since   the   end   of   2013.   Due   to   unfavorable   exchange   rates,   PVH  narrowed  its  EPS  guidance  to  $7.25-­‐7.30  from  $7.30-­‐7.40.  PVH  shares  traded  down  1.4%  on  the  day.  Company  press  release  and  conference  call  

 Sears   (SHLD)   still   struggling   (December   4).   Revenues   for   Sears   Holdings  Corp.  were  $7.2  billion,  down  (-­‐12.9%)  YoY.    The  revenue  decline  was  primarily  due  to  the  Separation  of   the  Lands’  End  business,  and   lower   revenue   from  fewer  Kmart  and  Sears  

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Full-­‐line   stores   associated  with   Sears   Canada,  which  was   de-­‐consolidated   in  Oct.   2014.    The  biggest  dollar  decline  was  at  Sears  Domestic,  whose  revenues  were  down  (-­‐12.0%);  revenues   for   Sears   Canada   were   down   (-­‐34.8%);   and   revenues   at   Kmart   fell    (-­‐7.2%).    Kmart  comps  increased  0.5%  YoY,  or  up  +2.8%,  excluding  consumer  electronics  and  grocery  and  household  goods  businesses.    Sears  Online  and  multichannel  sales  grew  approximately   9%   YoY   and   approximately   18%   YTD.   Sears   Domestic   comps   declined  (-­‐0.7%)  YoY,  or  were  up  +1.0%,  excluding  consumer  electronics.     Inventories  were  down  8.1%  this  year  and  down  (-­‐27.5%)  YoY.  Management  said  the  company’s  transformation  is  continuing  while  it  takes  steps  to  restore  profitability  and  increase  financial  flexibility.    Year  to  date,  the  company  has  closed  or  announced  approximately  235  underperforming  stores  for  closure,  primarily  Kmart  stores.    SHLD  shares  traded  down  (-­‐4.4%)  on  the  day.  Company  report  

Selected  Retail  Company  Earnings  Results    

Company  

Revenues    ($  Mil.)   Change   Gross  Margin  (%)   Change  

Net  Income    ($  Mil.)  

Change  YoY   Store  Fleet  EOP  

2014     2013     (%)   2014   2013   (BP)   2014   2013   (%)   2014     2013    

A&F   $911   $1,033   (11.8)   62.2   63.0   (80)   $18   ($16)   NM   1,000   1,063  

Aéropostale   453   427   6.1   15.2   17.1   (190)   (52)   (26)   104.2   1,052   1,124  

American  Eagle   854   857   (0.4)   36.9   34.9   200   9   25   (63.7)   1,082   1,064  

Guess   590   613   (3.9)   36.3   37.2   (90)   22   35   (38.2)   1,676   1,603  

PVH   2,233   2,259   (1.2)   52.3   51.9   41   226   197   14.8   537   496  

Sears   7,207   8,272   (12.9)   22.2   23.3   (110)   (628)   (547)   NM   2,474   2,601  Source:  Company  reports                                          

 

 US  Regular  Gasoline  Prices      

 

    $  per  Gallon     Change  from  

    11/17/14   11/24/14   12/01/14   week  ago   year  ago  

US   2.894   2.821   2.778    (0.043)    (0.494)  

East  Coast   2.908   2.854   2.820    (0.034)    (0.569)  

       New  England   3.014   2.964   2.944    (0.020)    (0.531)  

     Central  Atlantic   2.990   2.953   2.923    (0.030)    (0.518)  

       Lower  Atlantic   2.815   2.747   2.705    (0.042)    (0.620)  

Midwest   2.856   2.762   2.715    (0.047)    (0.406)  

Gulf  Coast   2.673   2.593   2.531    (0.062)    (0.593)  

Rocky  Mountain   3.011   2.933   2.861    (0.072)    (0.252)  

West  Coast   3.114   3.048   3.016    (0.032)    (0.459)  

     West  Coast  (ex  CA)   3.050   3.006   2.963    (0.043)    (0.337)  

     

Source:  US  Energy  Information  Administration  

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CHINA  HEADLINES  OF  THE  WEEK    

JD.com   sees   net   loss   of   164   million   Yuan   in   3Q14   (November   17).  JD.com   announced   its   3Q14   financial   results.   Although   the   company’s  gross  merchandise   volume   (GMV)   grew   111%   YoY   to   67.3   billion   Yuan  

(US$11.0  billion)  and  revenue  increased  61%  YoY  to  29.0  billion  Yuan  (US$4.7  billion),  its  net   loss   in  the  3Q14  was  164  million  Yuan  (US$26.8  million)  and  net  margin  was  -­‐0.6%.  The  loss  was  primarily  due  to  amortization  of  intangible  assets  resulting  from  assets  and  business  acquisitions  related  to  its  strategic  partnership  with  Tencent.  JD.com  

Financial  and  Operating  Highlights      (Bil.  Yuan)  

                               For  the  Three  Months  Ended  Sept.  30  

  2013   2014   %  Change  YoY  Net  revenue   ¥18   ¥29   +61%  Net  income/(loss)   0.075   (0.164)   NM  Active  customer  accounts  (Mil.)   22   46   +109%  Orders  fulfilled  (Mil.)   81.5   178.2   +119%  GMV     32   67   +111%  

 

10   Asia   Pacific   Tech   Trends   for   2015   (November   21).     Forrester  Research  has  prepared  a  list  of  10  Tech  Trends  for  Asia  Pacific  retailers  

in  2015.  It  says  mobile-­‐powered  customer  experiences  will  fuel  digital  transformation  in  the  region  in  the  year  ahead.  

Forrester’s  Top  10  are:  

1. Digital  transformation  will  drive  technology  spending  growth  of  4.9%.  2. The  majority  of  companies  in  Asia  Pacific  will  be  unprepared  for  digital  disruption.  3. China  will  be  the  epicenter  of  digital  innovation.  4. ‘Digital  India’  will  encounter  stubborn  roadblocks  5. Mobile  business  will  lag  accelerated  smartphone  adoption.  6. Organizations  will  move  beyond  rudimentary  enterprise  mobility.  7. Customer  Experience  –  Bridge  for  CIO-­‐CMO  collaboration.  8. Asia  will  turn  to  mobile  messaging  apps  for  customer  engagement.  9. Apple  Pay  will  dislodge  mobile  payments  gridlock.  10. Customer  insights  and  big  data  analytics  will  sprawl.  

Inside  Retail  Asia  

Alipay  partners  with  US  retailers  to  bring  Black  Friday  to  China  (November  21).    Alibaba’s  online  payment  platform  Alipay  announced  to  team  up  with  a  

number  of  US  retailers  to  introduce  Black  Friday,  the  biggest  shopping  day  following  the  Thanksgiving   in   the   US,   to   Chinese   online   shoppers.   US   retailers   participating   include  Macy’s,   Bloomingdale’s,   Saks   Fifth   Avenue,   Neiman   Marcus,   Ann   Taylor   and  Aéropostale.   The  partnership  will   enable  Chinese  online   consumers   to  make  purchase  from  US  retailers  and  pay  in  RMB  through  Alipay's  payment  system.  Ebrun  

  JD.com  opens  ”Weidian”  on  Tencent’s  WeChat   (November  26).   JD.com  has  opened  a  “Weidian”,  a  self-­‐managed  shopping  platform  on  Tencent’s  

mobile  messaging  application,  WeChat,  to  provide  a  mobile  platform  for  the  third  party  vendors   to   list   their   offerings.   Since   the  platform  will   only   open   to   vendors   that   have  already  set  up  a  storefront  on  JD.com,  it  is  expected  that  some  vendors  from  other  B2C  marketplaces  such  as  Tmall  will  migrate  to  JD.com.  China  Economic  Net  

 

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  “Amazon   Overseas”   in   China   joins   the   Black   Friday   Festival  (November  26).    Amazon  China  will   join  the  Black  Friday  shopping  festival   in  the  US  to  offer  Chinese  consumers  products  with  huge  discounts.  Chinese  shoppers  can  shop  on  its   “Amazon   Overseas”   platform,   which   offers   products   that   are   available   at   the   US  Amazon   store   but  within   an   all-­‐Chinese   user   interface.   Amazon   offers   fast   delivery   in  three  days  during  the  Black  Friday  festival,  while  the  average  delivery  time  is  around  two  weeks.  By  the  end  of  this  year,  one  million  overseas  products  will  be  available  for  sale,  up  from  800,000  currently.  Shanghai  Daily  

Baidu   rolls   out   web   browser   for   overseas   shopping   (November   28).  According  to  the  Chinese  search  engine  Baidu  has  rolled  out  a  web  browser  to  facilitate  overseas   shopping.   The   browser   enables   Chinese   shoppers   to   refresh   overseas   e-­‐commerce  websites  such  as  US  Amazon  and  6PM  at  a  faster  speed.  English  to  Chinese  translation  service   is  also  provided  to  reduce  language  barrier  when  engaging  in  cross-­‐border  shopping.  Ebrun  

 

US  WEATHER  ANALYTICS:  Week  of  Dec.  7  –  13    

Much  Warmer  temperatures  across  the  Country  Warm   in   the   Middle.   The   middle   of   December   will   feel   more   like   mid-­‐Autumn   as  temperatures  climb  above  normal   levels  and   those  of   last  year   for  almost  all  of  North  America.  Florida  will  be  colder  than  last  year,  but  don’t  feel  too  bad  for  residents  there,  as  they  will  still  be  warmer  than  most  of  us.  Expect  demand  for  seasonal  categories  to  slow  as  the  warmth  will  limit  need-­‐based  purchases.  

Rain  Moves  Across  the  South  and  the  West.  A  relatively  weak  storm  system  will  emerge  in   the   Southern   Plains   and   Southeast,   generating   light   rain.   The   rain   may   limit   store  traffic  as  consumers  increase  their  holiday  shopping  expeditions.  The  West  will  continue  to   experience  moderate   rain   and   snow   up   in   the  mountains.   This   includes   California,  which  will  help  to  alleviate  drought  conditions.    

December  7-­‐13  Weather  Outlook  (Average  Temperature  vs.  Last  Year)  

 Source:  US  Energy  Information  Administration  

 

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 A  FOCUS  ON  THE  US  HOUSING      

Figure  4.  S&P/Case-­‐Shiller  Composite-­‐20  City  Home  Price  Index  SA,  MoM%  Change  

 

 

Through  September  30,  2014.    Seasonally  adjusted  Source:  S&P  Dow  Jones  Indices  and  CoreLogic  

• The  September  home  price  index  rose  at  4.9%  YoY,  the  slowest  rate  in  23  months,  versus  the  5.6%  pace  in  August  

• Eighteen  of  the  20  cities  tracked  experienced  slower  growth  rates  than  in  the  previous  month.  Miami  continues  to  lead,  with  a  10.3%  YoY  gain  and  Cleveland  showed  the  smallest  YoY  increase  of  0.8%  

 

Figure  5.  Total  Existing  Home  Sales,  YoY%  Change  

 

 

Through  October  31,  2014.    Seasonally  adjusted  annual  rate    Source:  National  Association  of  Realtors  

• Total  existing  home  sales  rose  by  an  annualized  seasonally  adjusted  rate  of  5.26  million  in  October,  up  from  a  5.18  million  rate.  Housing  sales  are  at  the  highest  level  of  the  year  

• The  median  existing-­‐home  sale  price  was  $208,300  in  October,  up  5.5%  YoY  

(2.5)  

(2.0)  

(1.5)  

(1.0)  

(0.5)  

0.0    

0.5    

1.0    

1.5    

2.0    

04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14  

(40)  

(30)  

(20)  

(10)  

0    

10    

20    

30    

40    

50    

04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14  

MoM   YoY  

(0.03%)   4.9%  

 

Oct.  ‘14   Oct.  ‘13  

1.5%   6.2%  

 

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Figure  6.  Housing  Starts:  Total  New  Privately  Owned  Housing  Units  Started,  YoY%  Change    

 Through  October  31,  2014.    Seasonally  adjusted  annual  rate    Source:  National  Association  of  Realtors  

• In  October,  housing  starts  rose  at  an  annual  rate  of  1.01  million  units  • Single-­‐family  starts,  which  comprise  about  two-­‐thirds  of  the  market,  rose  4.2%  MoM  in  

October.    

 

UPCOMING  EVENTS      

EARNINGS  CALENDAR      

Company   Event     Date  

Dollar  General     Q3  15  Earnings  Call/Earnings  Release   Dec.  5  

Five  Below     Q3  15  Earnings  Call/Earnings  Release   Dec.  5  

Hudson’s  Bay  Co   Q3  15  Earnings  Call/Earnings  Release   Dec.  9  

Costco  Wholesale  Corp   Q3  15  Earnings  Call/Earnings  Release   Dec.10  

Inditex  SA   Q3  15  Earnings  Call/Earnings  Release   Dec.  11  

Lulu  Lemon  Athletica     Q3  15  Earnings  Call/Earnings  Release   Dec.  11  

Rite-­‐Aid     Q3  15  Earnings  Call/Earnings  Release   Dec.  18      

   

(80)  

(60)  

(40)  

(20)  

0    

20    

40    

60    

04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14  

Oct.  ‘14   Oct.  ‘13  

8.0%   2.3%  

 

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EVENT  CALENDAR        

Event   Location   Date(s)   FBIC  Presentation  

Lean  Startup  Conference  San  Francisco,  CA   Dec.  8  -­‐  12   —  

The  Next  Web  Conference   New  York  NY   Dec.  10   —  

International  Consumer  Electronics  Show   Las  Vegas,  NV   Jan.  6  -­‐  9   Deborah  Weinswig  

Retail  Orphan  Initiative  (ROI)  Super  Saturday   Washington  DC     Jan.  10   —  

NRF  Big  Show   New  York,  NY   Jan.  11  -­‐  13   Deborah  Weinswig  

ICR  Xchange     Orlando,  FL   Jan.  12  -­‐  14   —  

Clicks  and  Mortar   New  York,  NY   Jan.  13   —  

New  Partners  for  Smart  Growth  (NPSG)     Baltimore,  MD   Jan.  29  -­‐  31   Deborah  Weinswig  American  Apparel  &  Footwear  Association  (AAFA)  2015  Annual  Executive  Summit   Washington,  DC   Mar.  18  –  20   Deborah  Weinswig  

   

   Deborah  Weinswig,  CPA  Executive  Director  –  Head  Global  Retail  Research  and  Intelligence  Fung  Business  Intelligence  Centre  Global  (FBIC  Global)  New  York:  917.655.6790  Hong  Kong:  +852  6119  1779  [email protected]        Marie  Driscoll,  CFA  [email protected]    Christine  Haggerty  [email protected]    John  Harmon,  CFA  [email protected]    Amy  Hedrick    [email protected]    Fong  Lau  [email protected]   Lan  Rosengard  [email protected]    Jing  Wang    [email protected]