decarbonization: considerations for nebraska · regulatory assistance project (rap) ® 7 700 800...
TRANSCRIPT
Ken ColburnPrincipal and US Program Director
The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®Nancy SeidmanSenior Advisor
December 17, 2019
University of Nebraska at OmahaFor NPPD, OPPD, LES
Decarbonization:Considerations for Nebraska
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What’s required for…
Decarbonization
Energy Efficiency(Writ Large)
BeneficialElectrification
Energy Optimization
(DERs, GEBs, Grid, Flex Load)
Clean Energy/RE
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…As Well as Political Support
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Pathways to Decarbonization
Roadmap 2050
1. Decarbonize the power sector2. Electrify end-uses3. Use energy efficiently
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1. Power Sector – Well Underway
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So Power Sector Emissions Are Declining
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700
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Lbs C
O 2pe
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Carbon Intensity of US Electric Sector Generation 2005-2030
Historic Projected with CPP
And Will Continue to Do So…
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“As the world transitions to a low-carbon economy, as much as $10 trillion of fossil fuel assets could become ‘stranded’ as regulations and [cheaper] clean energy sources make those investments economically unviable.”
– Moody’s, quoted in Financial Times, July 4, 2019
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Stranded Cost Risks Loom for Latecomers
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But the Power Sector Can’t Do It Alone
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2. Electrify Energy End-Uses
1. Saves Customers Money Over Long-Term
2. Reduces Environmental Impacts
3. Enables Better Grid Management
We already talked about beneficial electrification
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Heating Oil:
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Emissions Benefit: Oil Space Heat to Heat Pump CO2 Example
60 mmBtu heating @ 3,413 Btu / kWh@ COP of 3.0 = 6,000 kWh100% coal = 6.0 tons CO2100% gas = 2.4 tons CO2100% RE = 0.0 tons CO2
600 gallons/ year = 80 mmBtu / year@ 75% efficiency = 60 mmBtu heating@ 161 #CO2/mmBtu = 6.4 tons CO2
Heat Pump:
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Heating Oil:
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Member Costs & Services: Oil Space Heat to Heat Pump Cost Example
6,000 kWh / year x 12¢ / kWh= $720 / year
Fuel savings: $1,080 / yearLower cost to consumer; 3-6 year payback
600 gallons / year @ $3.00 / gallon= $1,800 / year
Heat Pump:
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Electrifying Transportation Similarly Positive
Source: JJ MCoy, ”Building “good load” to reduce carbon emissions”, 2016.http://nwenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Transpo-Electrification-TE-Workpaper-1-25-2016-FINAL.pdf.zip
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Electric Vehicles Are A Lot Like Water Heaters
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Water Heater• 4.4 – 5.5 kW• 2,000 – 4,000
kWh/year• Can avoid morning
and early evening peak charging
• Tank usually supplies a full day’s supply
Electric Vehicle• 3.3 – 6.6 kW• 2,000 – 4,000
kWh/year• Can avoid morning
and early evening peak charging
• Batteries likely equal a full day’s supply
Really!
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Measure Life Matters
Source: RAP, Beneficial Electrification of Transportation, January 2019
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Consider Cost & Emissions Over Time…
Trends favor electric end-uses as cheaper and cleaner over time.
Source: RAP, Beneficial Electrification in the Public Interest, January 2019
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3. Energy Efficiency Remains Vital
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Today’s EE/DSM “Eddy”
Fossil ResourcesRenewables & DERsCapacity Resources
Ancillary ServicesUtility EE/DSM
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• “Law of Big Numbers” can made EE work like any other DER• Now can value (and compensate) EE’s grid benefits, flexibility,
non-energy benefits, etc.
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Markets: DERs & “Metered EE”
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“We must use less electricity where we can,
so we can use more where we should.”
– Former EPRI CEO Steve Specker
About RAPThe Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® is an independent, non-partisan, non-governmental organization dedicated to accelerating the transition to a clean, reliable, and efficient energy future.
Learn more about our work at raponline.org
Ken ColburnPrincipal & US DirectorThe Regulatory Assistance Project®[email protected]
Nancy SeidmanSenior AdvisorThe Regulatory Assistance Project®[email protected]