decadal drought risk assessment and scenario development...

Vikram Mehta James River Sub-basin Webinar 13 April 2017

Decadal Drought Risk Assessment and Scenario

Development for Food and Bio-fuels Agriculture in Four

Sub-basins in the Missouri River Basin

Acknowledgements

Projects supported by NOAA-CPO-Sectoral Applications Research Program 2015-2017

and

USDA-National Institute for Food and Agriculture 2011-2016


The Project People

Vikram Mehta and Katherin Mendoza The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Catonsville, Maryland

Cody Knutson, Nicole Wall, and Tonya Bernadt National Drought Mitigation Center, Univ. of Nebraska – Lincoln, Nebraska


Previous and Current Missouri River Basin

Projects

⦿ Exploratory study of decadal climate variability (DCV) impacts on water and crop yields: 2006-08

⦿ Decadal drought information needs of stakeholders and policymakers: 2008-10

⦿ Interannual to decadal climate variability impacts on urban water security: 2010-12

⦿ Value of decadal climate information to Missouri River Basin agriculture: 2012-14

⦿ Decadal climate and impacts prediction and adaptation models and methodologies: 2011-16

⦿ Development of adaptation options for food and biofuel crops: 2015-17

⦿ Readiness of agriculture and transportation sectors to cope with multiyear to decadal droughts in

the Mississippi and Missouri River Basins: 2016-18

All projects have involved interactions with stakeholders and

policymakers via workshops, webinars, and individual meetings.


Stakeholder Advisory Team

Adnan Akyuz: North Dakota State Climatologist

Dave Bartel: James River Water Development District Manager

Gregory Delzer: USGS Dakota Water Science Center

Kathleen Donahue: North Dakota Department of Emergency Services

Dan Driscoll: USGS Dakota Water Science Center

Paul DuBourt: USDA/NRCS

Doug Goehring: North Dakota Department of Agriculture Commissioner

Kelsey Kolars: USGS Dakota Water Science Center

Kendall Nichols: North Dakota Soybean Council

Mark Rath: South Dakota Department of Environment and Natural Resources

Jim Ristau: South Dakota Corn

Karen Ryberg: USGS Dakota Water Science Center

Allen Schlag: NOAA Weather Forecast Office Bismarck

Doug Sombke: South Dakota Farmers Union


Project Objectives

⦿ To define decadal drought information needs of agricultural stakeholders in

four selected sub-basins of the Missouri River Basin.

⦿ To conduct a scenario-planning exercise for coping with multiyear to

decadal droughts in these sub-basins.


Roles of the Project and

Stakeholder Advisory Teams

Project Team ☞ Introduce natural decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena or cycles.

☞ Show associations between these climate cycles, and dry/wet cycles, crop yields and

productions in the James River sub-basin (JSB).

☞ Provide past and possible future scenarios of dry/wet cycles, water availability, crop yields.

Stakeholder Advisory Team ☞ Provide detailed and quantitative information about agriculture and water resources in JSB;

and about present and future use of corn and other crops to produce bio-fuels.

☞ Describe perceptions of these dry/wet cycles and impacts on water and crops.

☞ Discuss how they might have used this information if provided as forecasts.

☞ Suggest best methods to convey such information to users of climate and impacts information.

☞ Disseminate information about this project and its results to other stakeholders.

Selected sub-basins for development of predictability and

adaptation methodologies

Platte

Lower

Grand

James

Marias

🌾 The Lower Grand in

Iowa and Missouri

🌾 The Central Platte in

Nebraska

🌾 The James in North

and South Dakota

🌾 The Marias-

Musselshell-Poplar in

Montana


Importance of the Missouri River Basin Missouri River Basin

Largest

river

basin

in the US

Covers

500,000

sq. miles,

10 States,

many Native

American

reservations,

parts of

Alberta and

Saskatchewan

Value of crops

and livestock

over

$100 billion per

year

117 million

acres cropland,

only 12 million

acres irrigated

Produces 46% of wheat, 22% of grain corn, 34% of

cattle in the United States

Dependence on the Missouri River for drinking water, irrigation and industrial needs, hydro-electricity, recreation, navigation,

and fish and wildlife habitat


Droughts and Water in the Main Stem Reservoirs

Water in the Main Stem

Reservoirs

Severe to Extreme Drought Area

(Upper figure, courtesy National Drought Mitigation Center;

Lower figure, courtesy Kevin Grody, USACE)


Decadal Climate Variability

What is DCV?

Climate “cycles”with

~8-20 years periods

Seen in long-term ocean,

land,and atmosphere

observations

Main causes: Ocean-

atmosphere interactions,

land-atmosphere interactions,

solar variability

Major DCV Phenomena

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Trop. Atlantic sea-surface

temperature (SST) gradient

oscillation (TAG)

West Pacific Warm Pool

oscillation (WPWP)

Decadal variability of ENSO

Sources of potential multiyear to decadal

climate predictability


Sea-surface temperature pattern and index time series

of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: 1900-2015


Spatial pattern and index time series of the tropical

Atlantic sea-surface temperature gradient variability:

1900-2015

Pacific Decadal Oscillation and wheat production in the MRB

Average

production

6.6 million

tons

Average

production

13.8 million

tons

Correlation coefficients between the PDO and wheat production time series

0.5 without smoothing and 0.65 after smoothing all time series.


The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Precipitation,

and Temperature in the Missouri River Basin

WARM

PDO Warm PDO Cold

Precip

departure

From

average

Daily

max.

temp.

departure

from

average

DRY

WET

VERY WET

WET

DRY

VERY DRY

WARM COLD

mm/day

℃

COLD WARM

Observed and SWAT-simulated streamflow anomalies (cu. m/s)

in wet (1982-86) and dry (1987-90) epochs

Dry: 1987 - 90

USGS

SWAT

Wet: 1982 - 86

USGS

SWAT

Decreased flows in western

Montana and northern Kansas,

and increased flows elsewhere

Increased flows in western

Montana and northern Kansas,

and decreased flows elsewhere

PDO Warm PDO Cold


Development of Climate-Adaptive Water and Agriculture

Management System in the James River Sub-basin

Why the James sub-basin (JSB)?

Substantial and identifiable DCV signals in precipitation, temperature, crops, and

streamflow.

Important agricultural region producing spring and winter wheat, corn, soybeans,

sunflower, and alfalfa; also, major ethanol producing region.

Recreation and wildlife/conservation sectors also important.

Soil erosion and water quality degradation due to run-off from crop and livestock

production.


The PDO and Differences in Probabilities of Above/Below Average

Precipitation: 1961-2015

PDO Warm PDO Cold

PDO Warm – Wet in the south, dry in the center and north;

PDO Cold – Dry in the south, wet in the center and north



Daily Max. Temperature: 1961-2015

PDO Warm PDO Cold

PDO Warm – Generally warm, except in the center;

PDO Cold – Generally cool, warm in the south


Location

(County)

PDO State Streamflow

(%)

Precipitation

(%)

Daily Max.

Temperature

(%)

Sheyenne River

Above Harvey, ND (Wells)

Warm/Cold -23/10 -23/17

8/-17

Sheyenne River

Warwick, ND (Eddy)

Warm/Cold -39/38 -8/3 8/-17

James River

Jamestown, ND (Stutsman)

Warm/Cold -39/10 -8/-10 8/-3

James River

La Moure, ND (La Moure)

Warm/Cold -46/3 -8/3 0/-24

James River Columbia, SD

(Brown)

Warm/Cold -46/10 -23/-3 0/3

Maple River

ND-SD State Line (Dickey)

Warm/Cold -39/-10 -15/10 23/-10

Elm River

Westport, SD (Brown)

Warm/Cold -31/-17 -23/-3 0/3

James River

Ashton, SD (Spink)

Warm/Cold -46/10 0/10 0/-3

James River

Huron, SD (Beadle)

Warm/Cold -39/17 0/-17 0/-17

James River

Forestburg, SD (Sanborn)

Warm/Cold -46/10 0/-24 0/3


Streamflow, Precipitation, and Daily Max. Temperature: 1961-2015


The PDO and Crop Yields in the James Sub-basin

Soybean

1961-2014

Corn

1961-2014

Wheat

1961-2007

Hay

1961-2014

PDO Warm PDO Cold

USDA-NASS

data from 1961

to 2014

PDO Warm phase:

Above average soybean

and hay yields, and below

average wheat and corn

yields in almost all

counties; generally

opposite behavior in PDO

Cold phase


Next part of this webinar

Project Team

✔ Introduced natural decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena or cycles.

✔ Showed with past data that there are associations between decadal climate

cycles, and dry/wet cycles and crop yields in the James River sub-basin.


Next part of this webinar

Stakeholder Advisory Team

☞ Please tell us about agriculture and water resources in JSB, and the type of

water resource (surface, groundwater) used in irrigation, if any.

☞ What are your perceptions of dry/wet cycles and their impacts?

☞ What are typical agricultural management practices in JSB? Crop rotations?

☞ Please tell us about present and future use of corn and other crops to

produce bio-fuels.

☞ Is run-off from farms and other sources contaminating water resources?

☞ Is there a competition for water among food production and other uses?

☞ Would it help stakeholders in JSB if we can predict dry/wet cycles,

streamflows, and crop yields an year or more in advance?


Thank you!!

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