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Mod 0489 EU Balancing Code - Information Provision changes required to align the UNC with the EU Code

Debbie Brace3rd April 2014

Content

EU Gas Balancing Code sets out the information to be provided by Transmission System Operators (TSOs) to Network Users and the obligations of the Transmission System Operator (TSO), Distribution System Operator (DSO) & Forecasting party in this area.

GB regime provides information in line with the EU Code. However, there are some impacts:

1. Non Daily Metered Allocation (NDMA)

2. NDMA Accuracy report

3. Initial allocation

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1. NDMA

NDM Forecast (aka NDMA) Methodology

EU Code Article 42 - Information obligations of the forecasting party(-ies)

The methodology for the forecast of a shipper’s non daily metered offtakes shall be based on a statistical demand model, with each non daily metered off-take assigned with a load profile, consisting of a formula of the variation in gas demand versus variables such as temperature, day of week, customer type and holiday seasons. The methodology shall be subject to consultation before its adoption.

Uniform Network Code Section H 5.2.2

A "Short Term Demand Model" is a mathematical model established by the Transporters on the basis of historic demand and other data, which estimates (at a given time) for an LDZ and the Total System and for any Day demand, by reference to data including:

(a) forecasts of temperature and wind speeds for the Gas Flow Day or the remainder thereof;

(b) recorded temperature and wind speeds for the Preceding Day and (where relevant) the Gas Flow Day up to the time of forecasting; and

(c) actual demand (assessed by reference to gas flows at NTS/LDZ Offtakes adjusted for estimated changes in LDZ stock) for the Preceding Day and (where relevant) the Gas Flow Day up to the time of forecasting. 4

NDM Forecast Requirement

36.1 (a) – “ On gas day D-1, the transmission system operator shall provide the shippers with a non daily metered derived forecast for gas day D no later than 12:00UTC or, when daylight saving time is applied, 11:00UTC.”

36.1 (b) – “ On gas day D, the transmission system operator shall provide the shippers with a minimum of two updates of the forecast of their non daily metered off-takes

36.2 The first update shall be provided no later than 13:00 UTC (winter time) or 12:00 UTC (daylight saving).

36.3 The time of the second update provision shall be defined upon approval by the national regulatory authority and published by the transmission system operator…..

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NDMA Process

Non-Daily Metered Allocation Process (NDMA)

Gemini calculates the NDMA using LDZ demand forecasts and weather forecasts

UNC (Required by time) NG NTS Run Time

EU Balancing Code Compliant

*D-1: 14:00 D-1: 13:05 D-1: 12:00

D-1: 18:00 D-1: 16:00

D-1: 02:00 D-1: 00:00

D: 12:00 D: 10:00 D: 13:00 (latest)

D: 15:00 D: 13:00 2nd to be agreed with NRA

D: 18:00 D: 16:00

D: 21:30 D: 20:45

D: 02:00 D: 00:00

* Affected UNC time due to EU Balancing Code

Current UNC NDMA Inputs

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Inp

ut

Temperature, Wind Speed, Demand

(Future & Historic)

Future – Project Nexus

The proposed Project Nexus Modifications change the NDMA process but the timings of the NDMA are not being changed

The proposed Project Nexus changes aim to increase the accuracy of the future NDMA process amongst other things

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NDMA – Proposed Solution

Keep the existing UNC D-1 14:00 and add an additional NDMA publication at D-1 12:00

Is this agreeable?

Default NDMA forecast methodology proposed to mitigate any missing input data (current process or post Nexus) - use last available NDMA data item

Is this suitable?

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2. NDMA Accuracy Report

NDMA Accuracy Report

Article 42.Information obligations of the forecasting party(-ies)

A report on the accuracy of a shipper’s non daily metered off-takes shall be published by the forecasting party at least every two years.

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Accuracy Report – Proposed Solution (1)

Report should be published annually - consisting of 12-months of data

Is an annual publication suitable?

The report should show a daily comparison of NDMA forecasts to the D+1 (initial) & D+5 (final) allocations

Is there a preference for D+1 or D+5, or both?

Proposed that the NDMA forecasts at D-1 14:00, D 12:00 & D18:00 be used

Are these NDMAs the right ones to use?

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Example of data to be collated

As explained the report could contain comparisons between:

D-1 14:00 forecast and D + 1 allocation & D + 5 allocation

D 12:00 forecast and D + 1 allocation & D + 5 allocation

D 18:00 forecast and D + 1 allocation & D + 5 allocation

For example:

Gas Flow DateD-1 14:00 Nominiation to D+1 Allocation Difference

D-1 14:00 Nominiation to D+5 Allocation Difference

D 12:00 Nominiation to D+1 Allocation Difference

D 12:00 Nominiation to D+5 Allocation Difference

D 18:00 Nominiation to D+1 Allocation Difference

D 18:00 Nominiation to D+5 Allocation Difference

01/03/2014

02/03/2014

03/03/2014

04/03/2014

05/03/2014

Accuracy Report – Proposed Solution (2)

Xoserve to provide a high level commentary within the report (summary of the relevant information, findings and advice)

Is this agreeable?

Proposed that the report is published on NG and /or Xoserve website

Is there a preference for either website, or both?

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3. Initial Allocations

3. Initial Allocation

EU Code requires that “no later than the end of gas day D+1, the TSO shall provide each shipper with an initial allocation for it’s inputs and off-takes on day D and an initial daily imbalance quantity”

UNC mod required to change timing stated in E1.6.2 to provide data before end of 1st day after gas day rather than 2nd day after gas day as stated in UNC

We do not believe that any system changes are required as the info is already provided in line with EU

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Any questions

Any Questions?

For further information please contact me on 01926 653233 or

deborah.brace@nationalgrid.com

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