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Davis Rd North Local Town Centre

Amendments C176 and C177

Wyndham Planning Scheme

Statement of Evidence of Anthony Dimasi

November 2013

MacroPlan Dimasi

MELBOURNE

Level 4

356 Collins Street

Melbourne VIC 3000

(03) 9600 0500

Table of contents

Expert witness details ................................................................................i

Introduction ............................................................................................ iii

Summary of conclusions and opinions ......................................................... v

Section 1: Background ..............................................................................1

Site location and regional context 1

Proposed development 4

Planning background 5

Section 2: Trade area analysis ................................................................. 13

Trade area definitions 13

Trade area population 16

Socio-demographic profiles 19

Retail expenditure 22

Section 3: Competition ............................................................................ 27

Existing competition 28

Proposed competition 29

Summary 30

Section 4: Davis Road North LTC potential ................................................. 31

Davis Road North LTC sales potential 31

Supportable retail floorspace 33

Scope for anchor tenants 35

Ultimate centre potential 37

Conclusions 38

Section 5: Tarneit North LTC potential ....................................................... 39

Tarneit North LTC sales potential 39

Supportable retail floorspace 41

Compatibility of DRNLTC and TNLTC 42

Appendix 1 ............................................................................................ 45

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Davis Rd North Local Town Centre Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme


i

Expert witness details

Name and address of expert

Mr Tony Dimasi

Managing Director, Retail

MacroPlan Dimasi

Level 4, 356 Collins Street

Melbourne Victoria 3000

Expert’s qualifications and experience

• Bachelor of Arts (Hons.), University of Melbourne

• Master of Arts, University of Melbourne

My CV is included as Appendix 1 to this statement of evidence. I have extensive

experience in the field of retail economics and analysis gained over the past

30 years, having provided independent advice on thousands of retail development

projects and proposals throughout all parts of Australia, to a broad range of

clients. This experience includes extensive previous work undertaken throughout

the City of Wyndham, including at Werribee Plaza, Hogans Corner Centre, Tarneit

Gardens Town Centre, Manor Lakes Centre, Wyndham Vale NAC, Featherbrook

NAC, Point Cook Town Centre, Sanctuary Lakes Village as well as the planned

Rose Grange Town Centre and Williams Landing Town Centre.

Expert’s area of expertise

• I have practised as a consulting economic and retail analyst since 1982. During

that time I have worked in all states of Australia and also in New Zealand and

Asia, and have advised on many thousands of retail developments of all types

and sizes.

Expert witness details



ii

• I have undertaken work on numerous occasions throughout the City of

Wyndham and the surrounding region over many years, relating to both

existing and proposed retail developments. This work has included

assessments of existing and proposed activity centres throughout the

municipality, as I have outlined above.

• I have undertaken specific analyses of the supermarket industry, and of many

hundreds of individual existing and proposed supermarkets, throughout

Australia over the past 25 years. I have also appeared as an expert witness

before various government and ACCC inquiries into the supermarket industry in

Australia, including:

- the 1999 Joint Parliamentary Inquiry into the Australian Retail Sector (the

Baird Inquiry);

- the Inquiry into the Competitiveness of Retail Prices for Standard

Groceries (2008) undertaken by the Australian Consumer and

Competition Commission (ACCC); and

- the 2004 ACT Grocery Inquiry (the Martin Inquiry).

I have made all the inquiries that I believe are desirable and appropriate and no

matters of significance which I regard as relevant have to my knowledge been

withheld from the Panel.



iii

Introduction

This report presents my independent assessment of the future need and demand

for a shopping/activity centre at the Davis Road North Local Town Centre

(DRNLTC) site within the Riverdale PSP area, located in the City of Wyndham in

Melbourne’s outer west. The primary purpose of this report is to determine the

most appropriate scale and mix of centre that can be supported at the site, in

order to meet future community need and demand. In addition, the report also

examines the compatibility of the proposed DRNLTC with a strong neighbourhood

activity centre to be provided at or near the proposed new train station east of

Davis Road, within the designated Tarneit North PSP area.

I have structured my evidence as follows:

• First, I present a summary of my conclusions and opinions, before the detailed

analysis on which those conclusions and opinions are based, which is then set

out in five subsequent sections.

• Section 1 provides background information for the proposed centre, including

the local and regional context of the site and a brief discussion of the relevant

planning background.

• Section 2 examines the trade area likely to be served by the DRNLTC,

including the current and forecast population levels, the socio-demographic

profile and the retail expenditure capacities of the trade area population. This

section also presents a similar examination for the trade area likely to be

served by the proposed local town centre to the east of Davis Road and north

of the subject centre, adjacent to the proposed new train station. For the

purpose of identification, this centre is referred to as the Tarneit North Local

Town Centre (TNLTC).

• Section 3 summarises the competitive environment within which the DRNLTC

will operate, including both existing and proposed facilities.

Introduction



iv

• Section 4 presents my assessment of future need and demand for the

DRNLTC based on estimated market shares of available expenditure which the

centre can reasonably be expected to attract.

• Section 5 examines the potential for the TNLTC, on a similar basis, and then

considers whether the two proposals will be in conflict or be able to operate in

a mutually successful manner.



v

Summary of conclusions and opinions

• Tarneit is a rapidly developing suburb located in the City of Wyndham,

approximately 25 km west of the Melbourne CBD. Local population growth has

been accommodated in a number of residential estates in the area, including

Tarneit Gardens, The Rise at Tarneit, Claremont Park, Moorookyle,

Manhattan Place, Reflections and The Reserve.

• The proposed Davis Road North Local Town Centre (DRNLTC) site is located on

the western side of Davis Road, to the south of Leakes Road. Whilst the local

road network is still to be finalised, subject to finalisation of the Precinct

Structure Plan, the centre will be generally easily accessible for surrounding

residents.

• The largest shopping centre serving Tarneit residents (and residents of the City

of Wyndham) is Werribee Plaza. A number of smaller shopping centres are

provided throughout the surrounding region, catering for the food and grocery

needs of residents in their respective localities, including Tarneit West Village,

Wyndham Village and Hogans Corner. Another such centre is currently under

construction at Tarneit Gardens.

• The DRNLTC would integrate well with the surrounding local area, in particular

with the proposed nearby schools and open public space, providing a local

community hub for shopping and other convenience orientated purposes. The

centre is expected to serve primarily the weekly and more frequent

convenience needs of the surrounding local residents, with their higher-order

retail needs to be served in the main by other larger-scale facilities, in

particular Werribee Plaza, Werribee City Centre, and in due course, Tarneit

Major Town Centre.

• Based on results now available from the 2011 Census of Population and

Housing, the defined DRNLTC primary trade area contained some

1,940 residents at 2011, all located on the eastern side of Davis Road. Recent

population growth in the trade area has been very strong, with the majority of

this growth occurring within the Moorookyle estate.




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• The DRNLTC trade area population is forecast to continue to grow very strongly

over the next 10-15 years, with population growth in the short to medium term

to be accommodated to the immediate east of the DRNLTC. There are also

large parcels of currently undeveloped lands within the trade area, which are

expected to be developed in the future in line with market demand and as the

existing residential lands reach capacity.

• The trade area population is projected to reach around 12,300 people by 2026,

reflecting average annual growth in excess of 13%.

• The socio-demographic profile of the DRNLTC trade area is typical of a

developing outer suburban region, with a high proportion of traditional families

in their early life stages, who are attracted by the affordability of housing in the

area.

• Total retail expenditure generated by the relevant trade area population is

estimated at $31.5 million at 2013, and is forecast to reach $172 million by

2026. The average annual real growth rate in trade area spending over the

forecast period is therefore projected at in excess of 10% between 2013 and

2026.

• The DRNLTC will operate in a relatively modest competitive environment, being

the only planned supermarket anchored NAC to be located within the defined

primary trade area, providing a convenient destination for surrounding

residents. Other retail facilities are planned to locate beyond the trade area,

which will serve their respective local catchments; while the planned Tarneit

West Major Town Centre in the much longer term will serve a sub-regional

catchment, as will the planned Tarneit North Major Town Centre.

• The majority of retail expenditure that the DRNLTC can expect to retain from

trade area residents will be in the take-home food, groceries & packaged liquor

category (FLG). Across the total retail spectrum, the proportion of available

retail expenditure which the centre is forecast to retain from the defined trade

area is estimated to be in the order of 30%.




vii

• At 2020, the estimated potential sales volume for a supermarket at the subject

site would be in the order of $25-26 million (in 2012/13 dollars), indicating a

full scale supermarket could successfully locate at the site by that date, and

possibly even earlier – 2018 would not be unreasonable given the analysis.

• Given the strong continued growth in the region and as the surrounding area

approaches full development, the DRNLTC site could support a retail centre of

approximately 7,500-8,000 sq.m of retail floorspace, plus a significant

provision of supporting non-retail shopfront space (including non-retail outlets

such as banks, travel agency, medical services, real estate agencies and other

services).

• A centre of that scale at the DRNLTC site would be able to effectively service

the future needs of the growing local community, and provide for a convenient

town centre destination for surrounding residents’ daily use.

• A comparable analysis for the Tarneit North Local Town Centre (TNLTC) shows

that it is likely to serve a primary trade area with an even greater eventual

population than the DRNLTC, and will be able to support a retail floorspace

provision that in all likelihood will also be greater than the DRNLTC.

• Development of the two local town centres, at Davis Road North and Tarneit

North, will not only be compatible, but will be essential if the surrounding

residential communities are to be reasonably provided with accessible,

convenience oriented shopping and service facilities.

• The spatial distribution of the proposed new activity centres throughout the

Tarneit West area is appropriate, having regard both to the proposed

population densities that are to be delivered within the various residential

estates that will be developed throughout the area, and the already evident

pattern of neighbourhood/local activity centres within the City of Wyndham.



1

Section 1: Background

Site location and regional context

1.1 Tarneit is a rapidly developing suburb located in the north-western part of

the City of Wyndham, approximately 25 km west of the Melbourne CBD.

Regional accessibility to this outer western region of Melbourne is excellent,

and is provided via the Princes and Westgate Freeways, as shown on

Map 1.1 attached. Local accessibility is provided via a number of north-

south and east-west thoroughfares, including Tarneit, Derrimut and

Sayers Roads.

1.2 The City of Wyndham is one of the fastest growing municipalities in

Australia, with strong growth facilitated by a number of extensive greenfield

residential developments currently underway and planned in the region.

Local population growth has been accommodated in a number of residential

estates in the area, including Tarneit Gardens, The Rise at Tarneit,

Claremont Park, Moorookyle, Manhattan Place, Reflections and The Reserve.

1.3 The largest shopping and activity centre serving Tarneit residents (and

residents of the City of Wyndham) is Werribee Plaza, which contains a small

Myer department store, Big W and Kmart discount department stores, and

Woolworths and Coles supermarkets. A number of smaller activity centres

are provided throughout the north-western part of Wyndham, catering for

the food and grocery needs of residents in their respective localities,

including Wyndham Village, Tarneit West Village, Hogans Corner and Tarneit

Gardens, which is nearing completion.

1.4 The site for the proposed Davis Road North Local Town Centre (DRNLTC) is

located on the western side of Davis Road, south of Leakes Road (refer

Map 1.2). The site is undeveloped at this stage, with the local road network

still to be determined. However, based on the Precinct Structure Plan

intended for this area, very good accessibility will be available to the site for

surrounding residents, including from residents of the existing and planned

residential areas east of Davis Road.




4

Proposed development

1.5 In broad terms the DRNLTC is proposed to incorporate a modern

supermarket together with a liquor store and a supporting provision of retail

specialty space and other non-retail facilities. Given the early planning

nature of this proposal, the centre layout plans have not been finalised as

yet.

1.6 However, it is apparent that the DRNLTC would integrate well with the

surrounding local area, in particular with the proposed nearby schools and

open public space, providing a local community hub for shopping and other

convenience orientated purposes.

1.7 Given the proposed road network in the area, the DRNLTC site will be

generally easily accessible for surrounding residents, and will also have good

linkages to the nearby school and public space, as well as the proposed train

station to its north-east. Davis and Leakes Roads will be major

thoroughfares for the surrounding area, with traffic modelling estimating

that between 35,000-50,000 vehicles per day will travel along each road in

the vicinity of the DRNLTC.

1.8 As a local town centre, the DRNLTC will serve primarily the daily and

convenience needs of the surrounding local residents. Their higher-order

retail needs will be served primarily by other larger-scale facilities, including

the existing Werribee Plaza to the south; and the two future major town

centres planned to the east, at Rose Grange/Tarneit, and west of the

DRNLTC site, both shown on Map 1.2.

1.9 The appropriate scale for the DRNLTC, in order for the centre to fulfil its

role, is considered in more detail in Section 4.




5

Planning background

1.10 Three amendments to the City of Wyndham Planning Scheme are/will be

addressing various PSPs in Wyndham North. Figure 1.1 attached, sourced

from the former Growth Areas Authority (GAA), now the Metropolitan

Planning Authority (MPA), illustrates the boundaries for the four PSPs

covering the broad Wyndham North region, as well as the draft structure

plan which is proposed for all of the four PSP areas in question.

1.11 The Tarneit West locality is situated within PSP 91 (Riverdale), which is the

subject of Amendment C176. When completed, PSP 91 will provide the

guiding document for the future development of the area. Based on the PSP,

expected outcomes include:

• Some 12,000 residential lots across 757 hectares of net developable area

• Average residential density of 16 dwellings per net developable hectare

• Estimated capacity population of 34,000 people

1.12 The Tarneit North PSP (PSP 1089) is the subject of proposed

Amendment C177. That PSP provides for:

• 10,000 dwellings, to be provided at varying density levels.

• Average household size of 2.8 people

• Estimated capacity population of 28,000 people

1.13 A third PSP – PSP 1090 (Truganina) – will be the subject of

Amendment C175. The fourth PSP – PSP 1088 (Oakbank) – is in the early

pre-planning stage but I understand there is currently no timeline in place

for its further development.




6

Figure 1.1 Wyndham North PSP areas




7

Melbourne West Growth Corridor Plan (MWGCP)

1.14 The Growth Corridor Plans – Managing Melbourne’s Growth documents

prepared by the GAA, are high level integrated land use and transport plans

that provide a strategy for the development of Melbourne's growth corridors

over the coming decades. These plans identify areas for housing, jobs,

transport, town centres, open space and key infrastructure for Melbourne's

newest suburbs. These documents were approved in June 2012.

1.15 The plans for the western corridor are contained in the Melbourne West

Growth Corridor Plan (MWGCP), with the Wyndham region plan shown in

Figure 1.2 attached. The key relevant features to note are as follows:

• The area covered under the MWGCP is expected to ultimately contain

over 290,000 people and be able to accommodate at least 130,000 jobs.

• To improve the future transport network, a Regional Rail Link (RRL) is

now under construction to the north of Werribee, which will carry regional

train services from Geelong and beyond, also enabling improved

metropolitan services for Werribee residents. Three new train stations will

be developed, at Tarneit, Tarneit West and Oakbank, as shown on

Map 1.2.

• A number of existing and new town centres are proposed to service the

growing communities in this western growth corridor, based on a planned

hierarchy as follows:

- Principal Town Centre - A town centre serving a catchment of

100,000 people or more, which provides a broad range of activities

that generate high numbers of trips, including business, retail, services

and entertainment.

- Major Town Centre - A town centre serving a catchment of 20,000 to

60,000 people, and providing a mix of activities which include

businesses, retail, services and entertainment.

- Local Town Centre – A small town centre serving a local

neighbourhood of up to 10,000 people, including retail and non-retail

facilities.




8

Figure 1.2




9

• The Werribee Town Centre will be the Principal Town Centre for the

Werribee district, which will be the focus for a wide range of jobs and

services for the broader region.

• Four Major Town Centres are designated to cater for Werribee/Tarneit

residents, which are located at Werribee Plaza and Wyndham Vale (both

existing); and Tarneit and Tarneit West (both planned). The Wyndham

Vale, Tarneit and Tarneit West Major Town Centres will be designed to

integrate with the proposed train stations on the planned Regional Rail

Link.

Growth Corridor Plans – Activity Centre and Employment Planning (ACEP)

1.16 The ACEP document prepared by Essential Economics in November 2011 is

one of the background reports guiding the GAA’s growth corridor plans,

relating particularly to the distribution of activity centres and other

employment land.

1.17 The ACEP provides broad indications of average floorspace provision for

each type of town centre, namely an average floorspace of 10,000 sq.m for

Local Town Centres (including a supermarket of 3,000 – 3,500 sq.m); an

indicative figure of 55,000 sq.m for Major Town Centres (to include discount

department stores and supermarkets); and an indicative approximate figure

of 100,000 sq.m for Principal Town Centres.

1.18 More importantly, for the planning of activity centres, the ACEP states in its

conclusions (page xix):

“Higher-order centres such as PTCs and MTCs will become important

foci for a wider variety of economic activities, and should be

encouraged to attract a range of non-retail uses so that they do not

become overly standardised and one-dimensional. [...] While PTCs

and MTCs will be important as a location for higher-order shopping,

their role in convenience retailing (including supermarket provision)

should not be encouraged at the expense of neighbourhood centres

(LTCs) that are better-placed to provide accessible shopping

locations for the surrounding community.”




10

Draft City of Wyndham Activity Centres Strategy (WACS)

1.19 The draft WACS document was updated in 2012 to guide the future planning

of existing and planned activity centres for the City of Wyndham over the

next 20 years and beyond. The network of activity centres envisaged by the

WACS is shown in Figure 1.3 following. The two new Major Activity Centres

for the north-west region of Wyndham envisaged in the draft WACS are at

Rose Grange and the North-West Tarneit centre, with a network of other

large and small “neighbourhood” centres proposed throughout the region.

1.20 Some of the locations of the planned smaller centres in the WACS are

indicative only, and are not consistent with the draft future urban structure

as depicted in the PSP process.


Davis Road North Local Town Centre Amendments C176 and C177 Wyndham Planning Scheme


11

Figure 1.3



13

Section 2: Trade area analysis

2.1 This section of the report details the trade area which is likely to be served

by the Davis Road North Local Town Centre (DRNLTC), including an analysis

of the current and forecast population levels; socio-demographic profile; and

retail spending capacity of trade area residents.

Trade area definitions

2.2 The extent of the trade area (or catchment) that is served by any retail

facility is shaped by the interplay of a number of critical factors, with the

most important being the following:

• The scale and composition of the centre, in particular the major trader (or

traders) that are included within it; the layout and ambience; and the

quality of carparking.

• The proximity and relative attraction of competitive retail facilities,

including the locations, compositions, quality and scale of competitive

centres.

• The available road network and public transport service, which affects the

ease of use and access to the centre.

• Significant physical barriers which are difficult to negotiate or which take

considerable time to cross.

2.3 Taking the above into account, the DRNLTC trade area is expected to be

influenced by the following:

• The role of the centre, which is expected to provide for the local and

convenience needs of immediately surrounding residents.

• The location of the centre, which will be generally easily accessible for the

local population.




14

• The road network in the region, with Leakes and Davis Roads being main

arterials in the region.

• The locations of both existing and proposed competitive retail facilities,

including the proposed Tarneit Gardens Town Centre to the east, and the

future major town and local town centres to the north and west.

• The pattern of residential development within the region, with future

growth expected to occur in all directions around the proposed site.

Trade areas: DRNLTC & TNLTC

2.4 On this basis, the relevant DRNLTC trade area, coloured pink, has been

defined as a primary trade area, as illustrated on the attached Map 2.1,

incorporating the area within approximately 1 km of the subject site and

bounded by the future regional train line to the north-west and Sayers Road

to the south. The eastern portion of the primary trade area includes the

Moorookyle estate and the new Heartlands estate.

2.5 Utilising the information from the Draft Riverdale PSP, I estimate that within

the defined primary trade area for the DRNLTC there is capacity for some

4,150 residential lots. Adopting the current average household size for

residential development in this area as measured at the 2011 Census, of

3.0, the estimated capacity population for this defined primary trade area is

12,300.

2.6 The DRNLTC will also attract some business from the surrounding areas,

which could be considered as secondary sectors for the centre. However, in

light of the planned facilities which are proposed at various locations

surrounding the DRNLTC, including Tarneit Gardens; the Tarneit West Major

Town Centre; the Tarneit South-West LTC; the Tarneit North LTC in

proximity to the proposed train station to the north; and the longer-term

Oakbank LTC to the north-west, the primary trade area has been used

throughout the remainder of this report as the basis for assessment of need

and demand at the DRNLTC.




16

2.7 Map 2.1 also shows, for comparative analysis presented later in this report,

the indicative primary trade area for the TNLTC, defined on a similar basis to

the primary trade area for the DRNLTC. That area is shaded blue.

2.8 Drawing on the Draft Future Urban Structure for the Tarneit North PSP area,

I have estimated that within the defined primary trade area for the TNLTC

the available land can accommodate some 6,200 residential lots, and a

capacity population of approximately 18,563.

Trade area population

2.9 Table 2.1 details the current and projected population levels within the

defined DRNLTC primary trade area. Based on the recently released results

of the 2011 ABS Census of Population and Housing, the trade area

population was 1,940 at June 2011, all located on the eastern side of

Davis Road.

Trade area 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Est. Capacity

Davis Rd North LTC 1,940 5,420 10,430 12,300 12,300 12,300

Tarneit North LTC 0 450 5,150 11,350 17,000 18,563

Total 1,940 5,870 15,580 23,650 29,300 30,863

2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31

Davis Rd North LTC 696 1,002 374 0

Tarneit North LTC 110 940 1,240 1,130

Total 806 1,942 1,614 1,130

2006-11 2013-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31

Davis Rd North LTC 37.1% 27.1% 14.0% 3.4% 0.0%

Tarneit North LTC 0.0% 55.4% 62.8% 17.1% 8.4%

Total 37.1% 28.6% 21.6% 8.7% 4.4%

*As at June

Source: ABS Census 2011; VIC Department of Planning and Community Development, April 2012; MacroPlan Dimasi

Average annual growth (%)

Davis Rd North LTC & Tarneit North LTC trade area populations, 2011-2031*

Forecast populationEst. pop

Table 2.1

Average annual growth (no.)




17

2.10 Table 2.1 also shows the longer term anticipated population levels for the

defined TNLTC primary trade area, although the likely timing of population

growth within that area is much more uncertain at this point than is the case

for the DRNLTC primary trade area.

2.11 Recent population growth in the DRNLTC primary trade area has been very

strong, with average annual growth of around 37% since 2006. The majority

of this growth has been accommodated within the Moorookyle estate on the

eastern side of Davis Road, which is now fully developed.

2.12 The trade area population is forecast to continue to grow very strongly over

the next 10-15 years, with population growth in the short to medium term

to be accommodated to the immediate east of the DRNLTC, within the new

Heartlands estate. This estate by Asset1 has recently started development,

and is expected to contain some 3,300 residents upon completion over the

next 6-8 years. At this stage, more than 250 lots have already been sold,

with around 130-150 lots expected to be sold per year.

2.13 In addition, there are large parcels of currently undeveloped lands within the

trade area, which are expected to be developed in the future in line with

market demand and as the existing residential lands reach capacity.

Development of these various parcels is in the early planning stage.

2.14 The main estimates and assumptions which underpin the population

projections adopted for the undeveloped land in question are the following:

• There are around 230 hectares within the primary trade area, which are

estimated to yield a minimum of 2,600 lots, assuming an average yield of

around 15 dwellings per hectare. However, there is potential for higher

residential densities to be achieved, particularly around local community

hubs and town centres. Therefore, the average yield of 15 dwellings per

hectare which has been assumed in my analysis is considered to be a

minimum level, with greater yields being more than likely.

• Development of the land within the primary trade area west of Davis

Road is assumed to start at around 2014-15, with completion expected

over the following 9-10 years.




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• The rate of development and sale of residential lots is estimated to

average around 200-250 per year. It is also assumed that the rate of

development will be somewhat lower during the initial years and will

increase over the subsequent years, as the development gathers

momentum. The development rate is then assumed to slow towards the

end of the project.

• The average household size for the new households is assumed at 3. This

figure reflects the current situation as measured by the ABS at the 2011

Census for those parts of the DRNLTC trade area which have been

developed.

2.15 Population growth for the DRNLTC trade area is expected to continue to be

high over the forecast period, with the trade area projected to reach a

population of 12,300 by 2026, reflecting average annual growth of around

13.1%. These projections reflect the minimum anticipated population levels,

based on an average yield of 15 dwellings per hectare.

2.16 There is less certainty around the likely timing of residential development

within the defined primary trade area for the TNLTC, however, the key issue

in that regard is not so much about the timing of development but rather

the trade area population capacity and consequent demand for retail

floorspace. Therefore, the estimated capacity population for the TNLTC trade

area as shown in Table 2.1 is the more important figure. That capacity

population is estimated to be in the order of 18,563.




19

Socio-demographic profiles

2.17 The attached Table 2.2 and Chart 2.1 detail the socio-demographic profile of

the DRNLTC trade area based on the 2011 Census of Population and

Housing, highlighting the following:

• The average age of trade area residents, at 25.6 years, is much younger

than the benchmark for metropolitan Melbourne of 37.3 years, reflecting

an above average proportion of children and residents aged between 20-

39 years old, and a significantly lower than average proportion of older

residents, i.e. a very young family area.

• Income levels are in line with the metropolitan Melbourne average on a

per household basis but below benchmark on a per capita basis,

reflecting the above average household sizes in the trade area and a high

incidence of dual income households.

• There is a lower level of home ownership in the trade area, as compared

with the Melbourne metropolitan average.

• Trade area residents are predominantly Australian born, though with an

above average proportion of overseas born residents.

• A review of family types indicates an above average proportion of

households comprising couples with dependent children, reflecting the

popularity of the region with young families.

2.18 The socio-demographic profile of the DRNLTC trade area is typical of a

developing outer suburban region, with a high proportion of traditional

families in their early life stages, earning below average per capita income

levels. Such families are attracted by the affordability of housing in the area.

2.19 At this point there is no population within the defined primary trade area for

the TNLTC, hence the socio-demographic profile of that area cannot be

determined. In my view, however, it is reasonable to assume, for the

purposes of this analysis, that the socio-demographic profile of the eventual

population within the TNLTC primary trade area will be broadly similar to the

profile of the population within the DRNLTC primary trade area.




20

Primary Melb Metro

Census item sector avg.

Per capita income $30,524 $35,169

Var. from Melb Metro benchmark -13.2%

Avg. household income $90,624 $91,440

Var. from Melb Metro benchmark -0.9%

Avg. household size 3.0 2.6

Age distribution (% of population)

Aged 0-14 28.3% 18.5%

Aged 15-19 4.0% 6.3%

Aged 20-29 26.0% 15.4%

Aged 30-39 24.9% 15.0%

Aged 40-49 9.8% 14.5%

Aged 50-59 4.9% 12.1%

Aged 60+ 2.1% 18.2%

Average age 25.6 37.3

Housing status (% of households)

Owner/purchaser 54.5% 71.3%

Renter 44.6% 28.0%

Other 0.9% 0.8%

Birthplace (% of population)

Australian born 56.5% 66.7%

Overseas born 43.5% 33.3%

• Asia 21.0% 13.4%

• Europe 5.2% 12.7%

• Other 17.4% 7.2%

Family type (% of households)

Couple with dep't children 56.5% 47.4%

Couple with non-dep't child. 3.9% 8.7%

Couple without children 19.6% 21.0%

One parent with dep't child. 11.6% 8.2%

One parent w non-dep't child. 2.2% 3.8%

Other family 1.4% 1.3%

Lone person 4.8% 9.6%

Source: ABS Census of Population & Housing, 2011; MacroPlan Dimasi

Table 2.2

Davis Rd North LTC catchment - socio-demographic profile, 2011




21

Source: ABS Census of Population & Housing, 2011; MacroPlan Dimasi

Chart 2.1

Davis Rd North LTC catchment - socio-demographic profile, 2011

28.3%

4.0%

26.0% 24.9%

9.8%

4.9%2.1%

18.5%

6.3%

15.4% 15.0% 14.5%

12.1%

18.2%19.3%

6.5%

13.8% 13.8%14.2% 12.8%

19.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Aged 0-14 Aged 15-19 Aged 20-29 Aged 30-39 Aged 40-49 Aged 50-59 Aged 60+

Age distribution

Davis Rd North LTC catchment Melb Metro Aust. Avg.

56.5%

43.5%

66.7%

33.3%

74.0%

26.0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Australian Born Overseas Born

Country of birth


56.5%

3.9%

19.6%11.6%

2.2% 1.4% 4.8%

47.4%

8.7%

21.0%

8.2% 3.8%1.3%

9.6%

45.3%

7.7%

23.0%

9.2%3.5% 1.1%

10.2%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Couple with dependent children

Couple with non-dependent children

Couple without children

One parent with dependent children

One parent with non-dependent

children

Other family Lone person

Family type


$30,524

$90,624

$35,169

$91,440

$34,467

$88,205

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Per capita income Avg. household income

Income levels





22

Retail expenditure

2.20 Chart 2.2 presents a comparison of the retail spending behaviour of DRNLTC

trade area residents with Melbourne metropolitan averages. Total retail

expenditure per person for the trade area population in 2012/13 is

estimated at $12,764, which is comparable to the Melbourne metropolitan

benchmark.

*Including GST

Source: MarketInfo; MacroPlan Dimasi

Chart 2.2

Davis Rd North LTC catchment - retail spending per person, 2012/13*

7,108

5,656

12,764

7,204

5,500

12,703

7,120

5,397

12,517

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

Total Food Total Non-food Total Retail

Total retail


2,002

2,894

654

1,559

2,028

2,807

674

1,695

2,035

2,824

762

1,499

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

Fresh Food Other Food & Groceries Packaged Liquor Food Catering

Food


1,269

2,495

633

932

328

1,297

2,225

706

897

375

1,272

2,241

697835

352

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Apparel Household Goods Leisure General Retail Retail Services

Non-food





23

2.21 Table 2.3 summarises the total retail expenditure capacity of the DRNLTC

trade area population in 2011, and present forecasts of the projected growth

in spending capacity to 2026. All retail spending forecasts presented in this

report are expressed in constant 2012/13 dollars, i.e. excluding retail

inflation, and include GST.

2.22 Table 2.3 also shows my estimates of the retail expenditure capacity of the

TNLTC primary trade area, having regard to the previously indicated

population estimates for that trade area and assuming that the profile of

that population would be broadly similar to the profile of the population

within the DRNLTC primary trade area.

2.23 Total retail expenditure generated by the DRNLTC trade area population in

the year to June 2013 is estimated at $31.5 million, and is forecast to reach

$183.3 million by 2031. The average annual real growth rate in trade area

spending over the forecast period is projected to be in excess of 10%.

Year ending Davis Rd North Tarneit North Total

June LTC LTC

2013 31.5 1.1 32.6

2016 57.0 5.1 62.1

2021 134.8 63.6 198.4

2026 172.3 152.6 325.0

2031 183.3 253.4 436.7

Est. Capacity 190.3 287.2 477.5

Average annual growth (2013 - 2031)

$M 8.4 14.0 22.4

% 10.3% 135.0% 15.5%

*Constant 2012/13 dollars & including GST


Table 2.3

Davis Rd North LTC & Tarneit North LTC catchments - retail expenditure ($M), 2013-2031*




24

2.24 For the TNLTC trade area, the total available retail expenditure is projected

to increase, from a minimal base at present, to in excess of $150 million by

2026, and more than $280 million, in 2012/13 dollar terms, by the time that

the capacity population is reached.

2.25 Table 2.4 details the indicative projected retail spending of the DRNLTC

trade area population by key commodity group, while Table 2.5 shows

similar information for the TNLTC trade area. These commodity groups are

identified as follows:

• The FLG (food, liquor and groceries) category incorporates expenditure

on food and groceries purchased for consumption at home, including

spending on fresh food and other food & groceries, as well as packaged

liquor. This category represents the primary market for supermarket

business.

• The food catering category includes expenditure on take-away food and

cafés and restaurants, as well as liquor consumed on the premises.

• The combination of the above two categories is total food retail

expenditure.

• The apparel category incorporates spending on fashion, including

women’s, children’s and men’s apparel, footwear, fashion accessories and

jewellery.

• The household goods category includes spending on giftware, homewares

and other furniture, as well as on electrical products and computers.

• The leisure category includes all spending on sporting goods,

music/DVD/games, books, newsagents and stationery, and other film

processing and photography products.

• The general retail category includes expenditure on pharmacy and

cosmetics, florists, pets, toys, phones, as well as on discount variety

products.




25

• The retail services category incorporates spending on hairdressers and

beauticians, optometrists, as well as on clothing alterations, key cutting

and shoe/watch repairs.

Year ending FLG Food Apparel Household Leisure General Retail Total

June catering goods retail services retail

2013 13.7 3.8 3.1 6.1 1.6 2.3 0.8 31.5

2016 24.9 7.0 5.6 11.0 2.8 4.2 1.5 57.0

2021 59.2 17.0 13.0 25.6 6.6 10.1 3.4 134.8

2026 76.1 22.1 16.3 32.1 8.4 13.0 4.4 172.3

2031 81.4 23.9 17.0 33.5 8.9 14.0 4.6 183.3

Est. Capacity 84.9 25.2 17.4 34.2 9.2 14.7 4.7 190.3


$M 3.8 1.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.7 0.2 8.4

% 10.4% 10.7% 9.9% 9.9% 10.1% 10.6% 10.1% 10.3%



Table 2.4

Davis Rd North LTC catchment - retail expenditure by product group ($M), 2013-2026*



2013 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1

2016 2.2 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.1

2021 27.9 8.0 6.1 12.1 3.1 4.7 1.6 63.6

2026 67.4 19.5 14.4 28.4 7.4 11.5 3.9 152.6

2031 112.5 33.0 23.5 46.3 12.3 19.4 6.4 253.4

Est. Capacity 128.1 38.0 26.3 51.6 13.8 22.2 7.2 287.2


$M 6.2 1.8 1.3 2.6 0.7 1.1 0.4 14.0

% 135.1% 135.5% 134.4% 134.4% 134.8% 135.3% 134.8% 135.0%



Table 2.5

Tarneit North LTC catchment - retail expenditure by product group ($M), 2013-2026*




26

2.26 The information in Tables 2.4 and 2.5 above highlights the growth in

anticipated retail expenditure, within both identified trade area sectors or

catchments, and particularly on FLG. Given these projections, there will

therefore be both need and demand for substantial local town centres to

service the convenience food and grocery shopping needs in particular of

residents of each identified trade area.



27

Section 3: Competition

3.1 This section of the report examines the competitive environment around the

Davis Road North Local Town Centre (DRNLTC) site. Table 3.1 below

summarises the competitive centres, while the previous Map 2.1 illustrates

their locations relative to the town centre.

Retail Dist. by road from

Centre GLA Major traders Davis Rd North LTC

(sq.m) (km)

Within trade area

n.a.

Beyond trade area

Tarneit Gardens (u/c) 6,000 Woolworths (u/c) 3.2

Tarneit West Village 6,500 Coles (3,800) 4.2

Wyndham Village 13,800 Coles (4,170), Aldi (1,380) 5.8

Hogans Corner 6,000 Woolworths (3,200), Dan Murphy's 6.2

Werribee Plaza 63,000 Myer (4,300), Kmart (8,100), Big W (7,600), 7.3

Coles (3,900), Woolworths (3,500)

Source: Property Council of Australia; MacroPlan Dimasi

Table 3.1

Davis Rd North LTC - schedule of competing retail facilities




28

Existing competition

3.2 Given the still developing nature of this northern region of Wyndham, there

are at present no existing retail facilities in the immediate area surrounding

the proposed DRNLTC.

3.3 The closest supermarket facilities for local residents are as follows:

• Tarneit Gardens TC – This centre, currently under construction, is located

around 2 km east of the DRNLTC site, within the Tarneit Gardens estate,

and will be anchored by a Woolworths supermarket, together with a

supporting provision of specialty space. The centre is expected to be

completed by late 2013.

• Tarneit West Village (Coles) – This recently developed centre is situated

some 4.3 km south-east of the DRNLTC site. It contains a Coles

supermarket and limited supporting provision of convenience shops,

focused on take-away food.

• Wyndham Village is located around 5.8 km east of the DRNLTC site, at

the north-western corner of Sayers Road and Morris Road. The centre

totals some 13,800 sq.m of retail floorspace and is anchored by Coles

and Aldi supermarkets, together with a Sam’s Warehouse discount

variety store and almost 50 specialty tenants.

• Hogans Corner is located some 6.2 km south-east of the DRNLTC site, at

the north-eastern corner of Hogans Road and Derrimut Road. The centre

is anchored by a Woolworths supermarket and also includes a Dan

Murphy’s liquor store.

3.4 In addition, the largest existing retail facility in the region is Werribee Plaza,

which is the major activity centre serving the north-west region of the City

of Wyndham. The centre is located around 7.3 km south-east of the DRNLTC

site and is easily accessible at the intersection of Derrimut Road and Heaths

Road. Werribee Plaza currently totals around 63,000 sq.m of retail

floorspace, anchored by a small Myer department store, along with Kmart




29

and Big W discount department stores and Woolworths and Coles

supermarkets. The centre also includes a 10-screen cinema complex.

3.5 There are approved plans for significant further expansion of Werribee Plaza,

as it will consolidate its role as the major shopping centre for the growing

Wyndham region. The expansion is expected to include a new larger Myer

store, as well as additional speciality tenants together with an entertainment

precinct and additional food catering facilities. This expansion will not,

however, have any competitive bearing on the DRNLTC, given its location

and intended role.

Proposed competition

3.6 A number of retail facilities are proposed in the surrounding region, to cater

for the rapid growth in population over the forecast period. The most

relevant retail facilities planned in the region include the following:

• Tarneit West Major Town Centre – The Tarneit West MTC site is located

around 2.8 km south-west of the DRNLTC site. As a designated major

town centre, the site is expected to contain major retailing facilities,

including discount department stores and supermarkets, and other

specialty traders. This centre is likely to draw business from a broad

region, including from the defined DRNLTC trade area. However, the

Tarneit West Major TC will serve a different (higher order) hierarchical

role to the DRNLTC, servicing the major non-food and weekly shopping

needs as opposed to the local and convenience role of the DRNLTC. The

development of this major town centre is also expected to occur in the

much longer term.

• Tarneit Major Town Centre (Rose Grange) – The Rose Grange/Tarneit

MTC sites are located respectively at the south-eastern corner of

Derrimut Road and Leakes Road and immediately north of the planned

train station, within and immediately north of Dennis Family’s Rose

Grange estate, approximately 4 km east of the DRNLTC site. This

combined centre is designated as the sub-regional centre to serve




30

Wyndham’s northern suburbs. The centre is likely to be developed in

stages and is considered likely to contain at least one discount

department store and 1-2 supermarkets as the primary retail anchors.

The competitive influence of the Tarneit MTC on the DRNLTC will be

minor, given the fairly separate trade areas that they each will serve and

their different hierarchical roles.

Summary

3.7 In summary, the DRNLTC is expected to operate in a relatively modest

competitive environment, being the only supermarket facility located within

the defined trade area, and will provide a convenient destination for

surrounding residents. Other retail facilities are planned to locate beyond

the trade area, which will serve their respective local catchments; while the

planned Tarneit West Major TC in the much longer term will serve a sub-

regional catchment.



31

Section 4: Davis Road North LTC potential

4.1 This section of the report considers the appropriate scale and composition of

the proposed Davis Road North Local Town Centre (DRNLTC), as well as

examining the centre’s sales potential. Sales potential will be determined by

a combination of factors, which were discussed in the previous sections of

this report and include:

• The location of the centre and the local and regional context of that

location, including the locations of other relevant competitive centres.

• The extent of the trade area or catchment which the centre is designed to

serve or can effectively serve, and the population levels within that trade

area.

• The socio-demographic profile of the trade area population, and the

resultant retail expenditure potential.

• The pattern of urban development, including physical breaks/barriers to

accessibility.

• The available transport routes and the ease of access to the site relative

to its competitors.

Davis Road North LTC sales potential

4.2 The amount of floorspace which can be supported at the DRNLTC, and which

will be appropriate to meet the needs of the trade area population, will be

driven primarily by the level of retail sales which the centre can reasonably

expect to retain from the pool of expenditure generated by the trade area

population.

4.3 Table 4.1 provides an indicative assessment of the volume of sales, by retail

category, which the DRNLTC could reasonably expect to retain from the

trade area population, taking into account the planned nature and likely

scale of the centre, as well as the nature and extent of the trade area.




32

4.4 These indicative estimates also take into account the competitive framework

in which the DRNLTC will operate, i.e. its position within the shopping centre

hierarchy. For example, the centre will not play a regional or sub-regional

role serving a broad population such as that of the planned major town

centres at Tarneit and Tarneit West.

4.5 The DRNLTC will however play an important role in the surrounding

neighbourhood, particularly for convenience retailing. It will therefore be

able to retain much of the food and grocery spending of primary trade area

residents, and will also be able to attract significant proportions of trade

area residents’ spending on food catering (take-away food, cafés and

restaurants); general retail (pharmacy, florist, toys, discount variety); and

retail services (key cutting, hair & beauty, clothing alterations, shoe repairs,

etc).

4.6 Table 4.1 takes all of these factors into account in providing indicative

estimates of the sales potential for the DRNLTC by retail category for the

defined trade area, based on estimated market shares of available retail

expenditure, by category, which the centre can attract. These estimated

market shares reflect the typical performance, in my experience, of

local/neighbourhood level shopping centres within their primary trade areas.



2013 6.8 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.3 9.5

2016 12.4 1.8 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.5 17.3

2021 29.6 4.2 0.3 1.3 1.7 3.0 1.2 41.3

2026 38.0 5.5 0.4 1.6 2.1 3.9 1.5 53.1

2031 40.7 6.0 0.4 1.7 2.2 4.2 1.6 56.8

Est. Capacity 42.4 6.3 0.4 1.7 2.3 4.4 1.7 59.2

% retained 50.0% 25.0% 2.5% 5.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 31%



Table 4.1

Davis Rd North LTC catchment - potential retained retail expenditure by category ($M), 2013-2031*




33

4.7 The majority of retail expenditure that the DRNLTC can expect to retain

from trade area residents will be in the take-home food, groceries &

packaged liquor category (FLG), which includes expenditure on food and

groceries purchased for consumption at home, as well as packaged liquor. It

does not include take-away food, café/restaurant expenditure, or liquor

consumed on the premises, all of which fall within the food catering

category. Across the total retail spectrum, the proportion of available retail

expenditure which the centre is forecast to retain from the defined trade

area is in the order of 30%, as shown in Table 4.1.

Supportable retail floorspace

4.8 Having addressed the market capture which the DRNLTC is considered able

to achieve, Table 4.2 provides indicative estimates of the amounts of

supportable retail floorspace for the DRNLTC on a year on year basis, taking

into account the estimated levels of expenditure which the DRNLTC is

considered likely to retain.

4.9 Floorspace figures in Table 4.2 are calculated by applying an average Retail

Turnover Density (RTD) to the estimated available retail sales volume. The

RTD is simply the level of sales per sq.m which it is considered new retailers

at the proposed DRNLTC would need to achieve in order to create a

successful town centre. Adopted RTD levels range from $8,000 per sq.m for

retailers in FLG (including any supermarket provided) to $4,000 per sq.m for

homewares retailers. The figures show the estimated supportable levels of

floorspace, including any major (e.g. supermarket) or mini-major stores

floorspace. The RTDs which I have adopted reflect sound, successful trading

levels, based on my experience of the trading performances of typical

retailers across each of the retail categories indicated in Table 4.2, and also

of typical shopping centres and other retailing.




34

4.10 The main points to note from the above analysis are as follows:

• A supermarket is likely to become supportable by around 2019/20, or a

little earlier, when the primary trade area population is expected to reach

around 8,000 residents (see Table 2.1).

• As the surrounding area approaches full development, the estimated

amount of supportable retail floorspace for the centre will be in the order

of 7,500-8,000 sq.m, with around 60% of that floorspace being allocated

to take-home food, groceries and packaged liquor. Non-retail shopfront

space (e.g. banking facilities, medical services) would be additional to the

estimated supportable retail space.

• The indicative timing suggested above will of course depend on the rates

at which residential development within the area proceeds. The timing of

the DRNLTC should be flexible around this critical factor; however as a

general guide, the centre should be developed sooner rather than later,

which would stimulate the take-up of the residential development, as well

as provide appropriate facilities and a community focus for the growing

population.



2013 855 160 17 77 78 92 53 1,333

2016 1,554 293 31 138 141 168 96 2,420

2021 3,700 707 72 320 331 402 226 5,758

2026 4,756 919 91 401 420 521 287 7,395

2031 5,088 996 95 418 444 561 304 7,906

Est. Capacity 5,305 1,049 97 428 458 589 313 8,239

RTD* 8,000 6,000 4,500 4,000 5,000 7,500 5,300 7,191

*Retail Turnover Density - Turnover ($) per sq. m in 2012/13 dollars


Table 4.2

Davis Rd North LTC catchment - estimated supportable retail floorspace by category, 2013-2031*




35

4.11 In addition to the retail floorspace outlined in Table 4.2 above, a typical

neighbourhood centre of this broad scale would also contain a further

amount of non-retail floorspace. This would include facilities such as

financial services (e.g. banks), medical/personal services, real estate

agencies and other similar uses, which are found in centres of this nature to

provide for a convenient town centre destination for local residents’ daily

use.

Scope for anchor tenants

4.12 The analysis outlined in the previous Sections 4.1 and 4.2 details the

approximate retail sales volumes which the DRNLTC could expect to retain

given the available trade area retail expenditure, and the consequent levels

of retail floorspace across each of the seven various categories which such

sales volumes could then support.

4.13 The development of retail centres in practice though is not quite as

straightforward. There are many other real world factors which serve to

make the planning and development of effective retail centres rather more

complex. The three most important of these other factors are the site

features; the commerce of construction cost, income and value; and most

importantly the availability of major tenants to successfully anchor the new

retail development.

4.14 In this regard, Table 4.3 shows the indicative potential sales volumes that

would be available to a supermarket within the DRNLTC, taking into account

the total volume of food and grocery retail expenditure generated by the

trade area population; the proportion of that expenditure which the DRNLTC

can expect to retain; the proportion of that retained expenditure which in

turn a supermarket anchoring the DRNLTC would be likely to attract; and

passing traffic. In this particular instance, given the nature and location of

the planned centre on Davis Road, the proportion of business expected to be

drawn from passing traffic is relatively small, at 6.5%.




36

4.15 The information shown in Table 4.3 highlights the following:

• At 2020, the potential sales volume for a supermarket would be in the

order of $25-26 million (in 2012/13 dollars), indicating a full scale

supermarket could successfully locate at the site by that date or even a

little earlier – 2018/19 would not be unreasonable given the above

analysis. This estimated sales volume assumes that a rate of residential

development is achieved as specified previously in Section 2.

• The sales potential for a supermarket at the DRNLTC would then grow

strongly in real terms over the forecast period, with store sales projected

to reach around $37 million by 2026.

4.16 The available trade area population would be unlikely to successfully support

any significant non-food major stores. The analysis previously in Table 4.2

shows that at 2021, for example, the approximate amount of non-food retail

floorspace which the DRNLTC could support would be in the order of

1,300 sq.m, but distributed across the various non-food retail categories,

namely apparel, household goods, leisure goods, general retail and retail

services.

Year ending Est. Sales potential

June ($M)

2018 19.6

2019 22.6

2020 25.8

2021 29.0

2022 31.3

2023 32.7

2024 34.2

2025 35.7

2026 37.2

Avg. ann. growth, 2018-2026 8.4%


Source: MacroPlan Dimasi

Table 4.3

Davis Rd North LTC supermarket sales potential, 2018-2026*




37

Ultimate centre potential

4.17 Based on the analysis presented in this report, I consider that the

development of the proposed DRNLTC can be anchored by a full range

supermarket. Other retail facilities likely to be supportable would include a

range of convenience orientated specialty shops, with a small amount of

non-food retail specialty provision.

4.18 The key components of the retail specialty mix could include the following:

• Food retail – A range of food retail operators are required to service the

daily needs of the local residents and to complement the supermarket

offer, including a bakery, a poultry outlet, a butcher, and a green grocer.

• Food catering – The centre could incorporate a combined 6-7 take-away

food stores and casual cafés/restaurants.

• Apparel/household goods – The focus of the DRNLTC would be on food

and convenience retailing, and therefore there is limited opportunity to

include retailers in these categories. One homewares/giftware trader and

two apparel stores have however been allowed for in the mix.

• General/leisure/retail services – Convenience orientated retailers, in

particular a pharmacy and a newsagent, are essential for the successful

trading of the centre. Examples of other retailers which could be included

are a florist, a pet store, an optometrist and 2-3 hairdresser/beauty

salons.

4.19 In addition to the retail specialties, the DRNLTC would also support a range

of non-retail specialty uses, including for example a travel agent, a real

estate agent, banking facilities and a medical centre. Such facilities help

create a convenient destination for local residents for their day-to-day

shopping needs.

4.20 As detailed earlier in Table 4.2, as the surrounding area approaches full

development, the estimated amount of supportable retail floorspace for the

centre would be in the order of 7,500-8,000 sq.m. From a planning

perspective therefore, a centre of around 7,500-8,000 sq.m of retail




38

floorspace, together with some 1,000-1,500 sq.m of non-retail space,

should be allowed for at the DRNLTC, in order to service the future needs of

the growing local community.

Conclusions

4.21 The main conclusions which can be drawn from this analysis of the market

potential for the DRNLTC can be summarised as follows:

• The DRNLTC is expected to be well integrated with the surrounding local

area, in particular with the proposed nearby schools and open public

space, providing a local community hub for shopping and other

convenience orientated purposes. The centre would therefore fulfil its

local role for surrounding residents as a convenient destination for their

daily and convenience shopping needs.

• At June 2021 the DRNLTC primary trade area population is projected to

reach over 10,000 residents. This population base will be spending an

estimated $135 million on retail goods and services, including around

$59 million on take-home food, groceries and packaged liquor at that

date.

• Given the strong continued growth in the region and as the surrounding

area approaches full development, the DRNLTC site could support a retail

centre of approximately 7,500-8,000 sq.m of retail floorspace, plus a

significant provision of supporting non-retail shopfront space (including

non-retail outlets such as banks, travel agency, medical services, real

estate agencies and other services).

• A centre of that scale at the DRNLTC site would be able to effectively

service the future needs of the growing local community, and provide for

a convenient town centre destination for surrounding residents’ daily use.



39

Section 5: Tarneit North LTC potential

5.1 This section of the report considers in broad terms the appropriate scale and

composition of the proposed Tarneit North Local Town Centre (TNLTC), in

the same manner as Section 4 as outlined the supportable scale and

composition of the Davis Road North Local Town Centre (DRNLTC).

Tarneit North LTC sales potential

5.2 Table 5.1 sets out a similar assessment of the sales potential for the TNLTC

to that which was previously presented in Table 4.1 for the DRNLTC.

5.3 The assessed primary trade area for the TNLTC, as set out earlier in

Section 2 of this report, will in due course contain an even greater

population than the very substantial population that will be accommodated

in the defined primary trade area for the DRNLTC. As a consequence, the

sales potential of the TNLTC will be even greater than the potential of the



2013 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3

2016 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6

2021 14.0 2.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.4 0.6 19.5

2026 33.7 4.9 0.4 1.4 1.9 3.5 1.3 47.0

2031 56.3 8.3 0.6 2.3 3.1 5.8 2.2 78.5

Est. Capacity 64.1 9.5 0.7 2.6 3.5 6.7 2.5 89.4

% retail expenditure retained

TNLTC catchment 50.0% 25.0% 2.5% 5.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 31%



Table 5.1

Tarneit North LTC catchment - potential retained retail expenditure by category ($M), 2013-2031*




40

DRNLTC, once the surrounding area has undergone an appropriate level of

residential development.

5.4 By the time that the capacity population of the defined trade area is

reached, the estimated indicative sales potential for the TNLTC will be in the

order of $89 million, expressed in 2012/13 dollar terms. This figure

compares with the assessed potential at capacity for the DRNLTC of around

$59 million.

5.5 The extent of residential development that is proposed in the surrounding

residential areas for both sites underpins the need and demand for

appropriate neighbourhood level retail facilities to serve these populations.

The very strong sales potential that is shown for both centres flows directly

from the planned residential capacity within each designated trade area.

5.6 It should further be stressed that this strong demand for neighbourhood

level retail facilities has been assessed on the basis that such facilities will

retain only around 30% of the total retail expenditure of the population of

each identified catchment. In other words, some 70% of the retail

expenditure to be generated by these respective populations will be directed

to other facilities, and particularly higher order facilities, such as the

proposed major town centres at both Tarneit and Tarneit West, as well as

Werribee Plaza and Werribee Town Centre.

5.7 Further, the indicative estimates presented in this report do not allow for

any additional inflow expenditure (i.e. from outside the defined primary

trade area sectors) for each of the two proposed town centres, a factor

which serves to understate slightly the amount of supportable floorspace at

each location.




41

Supportable retail floorspace

5.8 Table 5.2 sets out the indicative assessment of supportable retail floorspace

for the Tarneit North LTC (TNLTC), again on a similar basis to the

assessment of retail floorspace for the DRNLTC as previously set out in

Table 4.2.

5.9 Reflecting the greater estimated sales potential for the TNLTC once the

surrounding residential development has been delivered, Table 5.2 also

shows that there will in due course be a greater retail floorspace potential

for the TNLTC than the recommended 8,000 sq.m for the DRNLTC. Once the

capacity population has been achieved, the assessment in Table 5.2 above

shows that the supportable retail floorspace at the Tarneit North LTC will

potentially be in excess of 12,000 sq.m.



2013 31 6 1 3 3 3 2 49

2016 140 26 3 12 13 15 9 218

2021 1,744 333 34 151 156 190 107 2,714

2026 4,213 815 80 355 372 461 254 6,551

2031 7,032 1,377 131 578 614 776 420 10,927

Est. Capacity 8,006 1,583 146 645 692 889 473 12,434

RTD* 8,000 6,000 4,500 4,000 5,000 7,500 5,300 7,191

*Retail Turnover Density - Turnover ($) per sq. m in 2012/13 dollars


Table 5.2

Tarneit North LTC catchment - estimated supportable retail floorspace by category ($M), 2013-2031*




42

Compatibility of DRNLTC and TNLTC

5.10 The analysis set out both in this section and in the previous section of this

report shows that development of appropriate scale local town centres at

both Davis Road North and Tarneit North will not only be compatible, but

will be essential if the surrounding residential communities are to be

reasonably provided with accessible, convenience oriented shopping and

service facilities. The provision of such facilities will generate significant net

community benefits in both cases, since they will:

1. Provide community focal points for the respective surrounding trade area

populations.

2. Provide convenient, easily accessible facilities close to home for the

respective populations.

3. Provide substantial local employment opportunities, especially for the

youth within each catchment area.

4. Provide economically sustainable convenient shopping facilities, helping

to alleviate the level of congestion on the surrounding road network. If,

instead, these residents were all to be obliged to travel to other shopping

facilities located further away, including for example the higher order

facilities at Werribee Plaza, Tarneit MTC or Tarneit West MTC, for all their

convenience shopping as well as their higher order shopping, then one

would expect to see greater levels of congestion on the surrounding road

network, particularly at peak shopping periods.

5.11 A review of the existing pattern of urban development, and the locations of

the various activity centres, throughout the rapidly growing City of

Wyndham further underpins the need and demand for appropriate local

town centres at both Davis Road North and Tarneit North. As is highlighted

on Map 1.2 of this report for example, the existing neighbourhood level

facilities at Hogans Corner and Tarneit West Village are both situated only

around 1.5 km from each other, and each is located less than 2 km from

Werribee Plaza. In addition, between the two of them a smaller facility,

including an IGA foodstore, has recently been built on Hogans Road.




43

5.12 Similarly, Wyndham Village is located less than 2 km from Hogans Corner,

and will be only about 1.5 km away from the Tarneit MTC when that centre

is developed. The Tarneit Gardens Town Centre is similarly located less than

1.5 km from the site that is designated for the Tarneit MTC.

5.13 The spatial distribution of the proposed new activity centres throughout the

Tarneit West area is appropriate, having regard both to the proposed

population densities that are to be delivered within the various residential

estates that will be developed throughout the area, and the already evident

pattern within the City of Wyndham.

Appendix 1

NSW I VIC I QLD I WA

Level 4

356 Collins Street

Melbourne VIC 3000

P: 61 3 9600 0500

F: 61 3 9600 1477

E: [email protected]

W: www.macroplan.com.au

Tony studied economics, mathematics and

statistical methods at the University of

Melbourne where he graduated with a

Bachelor of Arts (Hons.) degree and a

Master degree, completed in 1982. He

also taught economics and statistical

methods at the University for 3 years,

before commencing work in the field of

activity centre analysis, as well as related

economic research, in 1982.

Since 1982 he has undertaken, and

continues to undertake, independent

research on behalf of retailers, shopping

centre owners and managers, property

developers, government and statutory

authorities, as well as a wide range of

other clients. The research includes both

supply and demand analysis, as well as

extensive customer research, investigating

customer behaviour, motivations and

preferences with regard to shopping and

activity centre uses.

Tony has worked across all parts of

Australia and New Zealand, and has

provided advice in relation to virtually

every significant activity centre location in

both countries. The range of projects has

included CBD properties, super-regional

centres; regional and sub-regional

centres, district and neighbourhood

centres, homemaker retail facilities,

freestanding stores, and all other retail

formats, as well as commercial and

industrial precincts.

Tony appears regularly as an independent

expert in state planning courts and

tribunals across all states of Australia and

in New Zealand, including:

� The Administrative Appeals Tribunal

(AAT) of Australia;

� Independent Ministerial Panels and

VCAT in Victoria;

� The Land and Environment Court of

New South Wales;

� The Planning and Environment Court of

Queensland;

� The State Administrative Tribunal in

Western Australia;

� The Environment, Resources and

Development Court of South Australia;

� The Liquor Licensing Court of

South Australia;

� The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets

Board of South Australia;

� The Resource Development Planning

Commission in Tasmania; and

� The Environment Court of

New Zealand.

He has also appeared regularly as an

independent expert in federal

parliamentary inquiries, including the

Joint Parliamentary Inquiry into the

Australian Retail Sector (Baird Inquiry); in

ACCC hearings, including the Inquiry into

the Competitiveness of Retail Prices for

Standard Groceries in 2008; as well as

Federal and County Court hearings.

He is also a regular conference speaker

and columnist in retail industry

publications.

Qualifications

� Bachelor of Arts (Hons.)

The University of

Melbourne

� Master of Arts, The

University of Melbourne

Tony Dimasi | Managing Director Retail

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