dave shideler larry d. sanders coda county officers & deputies association biltmore hotel, okc...
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Dave ShidelerLarry D. SandersCODACounty Officers &Deputies AssociationBiltmore Hotel, OKC17 Sep 2009Session 1: 840-950 amSession 2: 1010-1120 am
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1. Likely bottoming out, but…
2. Inflation, deflation and unemployment fears…
3. Not sure if it will get worse, but it won’t be back to “normal” for a long time.
4. Oklahoma’s economy may get worse, but not as bad as the US, and it will likely get better sooner.
5. OK: Oil, Natural Gas, Ag key roles in improvement, especially for rural OK.
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Output = Consumption + Investment + Govt. spending + Net exports Consumption is down,
but… Investment is down Net exports is down,
but… Government spending
is propping the economy up; until it multiplies, Output will remain down 3
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12-24 months OK likely sooner
than US Next 3 months
critical
Sanders is Short term pessimist Long term optimist General dismal
economist
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US Budget Surplus/Deficit ($b.)
-330-225-177-151-5070 124232268
-157.8-374-413-331-314
-162
-455
-1800
-1400
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
e
2009
p
2010
p
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2009 (www.bea.gov)
http://zfacts.com/p/318.html5
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Producers are waiting to clear inventories & excess capacity.
Consumers are buying less,Saving more, & maybe waiting for “betterdeals”.
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-1000000
-500000
0
Trade Balance
NOTE: 1991: $31.1 b.
2007: -$882 b. (China: 29%)
http://www.nabe.com/graphweek/2008/gw080413.html
US Agricultural Trade Balance, 1991-2009f ; 2012 projection ($mil/FY; agricultural product only)
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A cartoon about demand-side economics. From "'Right to Work' Laws--Low Wage Scheme," Economic Outlook, January 1955, CIO Education Department. http://www.flickr.com/photos/higbie/2554254376/
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US JOB CHANGE, HUNDRED THOUSAND, 1980-2009, MONTHLY CHANGE
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS HORIZONTAL AXIS SHOWS MONTHS. VERTICAL AXIS SHOWS THE RATIO OF THAT MONTH’S NONFARM PAYROLLS TO THE NONFARM PAYROLLS AT THE START OF RECESSION. NOTE: BECAUSE EMPLOYMENT IS A LAGGING INDICATOR, THE DATES FOR THESE EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ARE NOT EXACTLY SYNCHRONIZED WITH THE AGENCY’S OFFICIAL BUSINESS CYCLE DATES.
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http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/02/comparing-this-recession-to-previous-ones/
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10http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet
9.7%10.8%
3.9%
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1. Fed receiptsare consistent withNational Income
2. National Incomeis at 50-yearlow.
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1. Federal grantsare increasingto State/Local,but distribution is uneven.
2. State/Local salestax revenue isdown, & thedecline is greaterthan the increaseIn grants
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US economy is vulnerable to the following forces in 2009: Deflationary trend:
Falling wages, retail prices & spending, leading to both lower local government tax revenue and fewer employment opportunities
Potential inflation Rising/persistent
unemployment Increase in oil prices 14
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US 1950, age 0-4 bottom to 80+ top, M left, F right
US 2010
US 2050
http://www.nationmaster.com/country/us/Age_distribution
What does “flattening” of pyramid meanfor:--jobs/incomes--public services/infrastructure --tax structure & base--wealth accumulation --housing needs--consumption patterns--public policy
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The “triple threat”* Inflation Unemployment/Recession Deflation
The global economy & trade How long and how deep will the
recession be? Will protectionism take hold? Will anti-American sentiment grow?
*Thanks to D. Schweikhardt for this background 17
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http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/week-in-charts-buckle-heck-up.html 19
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So, is Deflation real? No increases in Social
Security With Medicare payments
going up, result is net reduction in retirement checks.
Other benefits tied to CPI (union wages? Others?)
The Fed has no tools to fight deflation.
What is/will happen to real interest rates: real i = nominal i –
inflation. http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation/DecadeInflation.asp 20
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http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2005/07/chart-of-day-deflation-cycle.html 21
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One view: “For inflation to supplant deflation as the
principal threat to price stability, we believe excess capacity would need to be removed.”
Dan Nevins, “SEI Economic Outlook, SEI Investment Management Corp, 2009.
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http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/info_glance/natural_gas.html 24
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http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2009/08/25/case-shiller-home-price-index-rises-for-second-straight-month-first-time-in-almost-3-years/
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/07/29/foreclosure-chart-of-the-day/
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26http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/case-shiller-updated.png
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27http://www2.fdic.gov/hsob/
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpposted/archive/2009/08/29/challenge-for-the-fdic-bank-insurance-fund.aspx
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28http://chartingtheeconomy.com/?page_id=27
1. Older groups typically have greater share of wealth.2. Wealth loss likely greater among
older pop.3. Suggests recovery will be incomplete & generational
transfer will be less.4. Suggests long time recovery.
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Growing economic power of China & India Climate/weather (OK, US, Global) Energy supply & demand Changing OK demographics (out & in-
migration) Crumbling infrastructure Technological change TBTF still w/us & likely even more so . . . Wild cards (wars, pandemics, etc.)
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US will be less dominant on world market China may be the world’s largest economy US labor market will be more ethnically diverse and
older US tax burden will be greater to fix infrastructure,
support seniors, invest in education & technology Global/mass domestic markets will shift to the web Niche local markets will thrive for Locavores Regional wars/conflicts, especially over water and
arable land will increase, reducing economic benefits
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Who own US debt (2008)?
Foreign owners of US Treasury Securities (July 2008)
Nation billions of dollars percentage
Japan 593.4 22.17%
Mainland China 518.7 19.38%
United Kingdom 290.8 10.87%
Oil exporters 173.9 6.50%
Grand Total 2676.4
Total debt: $10,000(foreign 26%)(other public 22%)(Fed, intragovt 52%)
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32http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/09/04/GR2009090400764.html?sid=ST2009090401455