DAVE METZ

Transportation Policy and Funding:

What We Have Learned and Where We Are Going

June 26, 2013

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In focus groups, voters across the political spectrum describe the “future

of transportation” as one in which public transportation plays a more prominent

role.“There will be trains

everywhere..terminals where you can get everything.”

– Suburban Atlanta Democrat

“(I see) sleek, fast, quiet trains covering wide distances, going

through the countryside.” – Suburban Detroit swing voter

“There will be friendlier neighborhoods where you could walk…not disconnected streets.”

- Suburban Denver swing voter

“(Public transportation) would be a well oiled machine that would work smoothly and be reliable…

you would arrive when you’re supposed to.”

– Suburban Atlanta Democrat

“If you build it, they will come. (People) will use it.”

– Richmond Republican woman

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Only one in five Americans backs building new roads as the best solution

for traffic.

2012 National Voter Survey for NRDC

201220092007

201220092007

201220092007

201220092007

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

42%47%

49%

21%25%26%

20%20%21%

17%8%

4%

Which of the following proposals is the best long-term solution to reducing traffic in your area?

Improving public transportation

Developing communities where people do not have to drive as

much

Building new roads

All/None/DK/NA

5

6

Americans do not feel they have options now, but would like them.

73%66%

23%32%

Agree Disagree

Strongly Agree42%

Strongly Agree56%

Strongly Disagree

17%

Transportation Statements

Data from a Smart Growth America survey conducted February 27-March 2, 2010

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But keep in mind they want an OPTION,

not a replacement; few can even imagine giving up a car.

Having a car is too expensive and too much trouble; I want to live

where I don’t need one as much.

Data from a Ford Foundation survey conducted by Harris Interactive 4 th quarter, 2010.

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Establishing a “fix-it-first” policy that focuses, as much as possible, on

maintaining our existing networks of roads, bridges, and public

transportation systems before building new ones.

Data from a Jan/Feb 2011 Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies Poll

Series10%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

49%

Strongly Favor

86%

In national polling the concept of “fix it” tests well.

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The Gap DC leaders:

Don’t believe there is a constituency for maintenance over new roads

Are unconvinced about the case for jobs

Are worried about over-reaching; they think it’s a time for practicality, not vision

Want concrete, low-cost, patently possible ways to move forward

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“Transportation infrastructure funding decisions are based more on politics than on need.”

Key Sub-Groups Strongly Agree

Men 62%

Women 62%

Urban Residents 58%

Suburbanites 67%

Rural Residents 54%

Car Commuters 60%

Non-Car Commuters 55%

Do NOT Commute 65%

Total Agree85%

Total Disagree

13%

Don't Know 2%

62% Strongly Agree

As for the public, nearly everyone agrees that transportation funding decisions are politically-

driven.

July 2009 Greenberg/Public Opinion Strategies Poll

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II. Looking Forward to

Demographic Changes

14Data Collected by NALEO

Though growth in the population of Latino voters has lagged their population share,

it has also grown dramatically.

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49% of voters of color report using public transportation, biking or carpooling in the past month, compared to 32% of whites

A 51% majority of voters of color supports increasing public transportation as the best solution to traffic, compared to 41% of whites

84% of voters of color support local governments in their area investing more to expand and improve public transportation – including buses, trains, and light rail – compared to 65% of whites

This is good news for transportation, as communities of color evidence stronger

support for public transportation.

2012 National Voter Survey for NRDC

16MetLife Market Institute

Millennials are currently one-quarter of the US population, and a diverse

audience.

25%

All others75%

Share of Population

White60%

His-panic19%

African-American

14%

Asian/

Pa-cific Is-lan-der4%

Other

3%

Racial Distribution

Millennial

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Millennials are more likely than others to want more transit and less driving, but are less likely to say it is

not convenient.

2012 National Voter Survey for NRDC

Statement% Agree – All Voters

% Agree – Millennials

My community would benefit from an expanded and improved public transportation system, such as rail and buses.

64% 71%

I would like to spend less time in my car. 55% 66%

I would like to use public transportation more often, but it is not convenient to or available from my home or work.

61% 53%

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III. Support for New

Revenue

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Americans over-estimate what their state spends on public

transportation… If you had to guess, what proportion of every dollar your state spends on transportation would you estimate currently goes to improving and

maintaining public transportation – like buses or trains?

0-10%11-20%21-30%31-40%41-50%51-60%61-70%71-80%81-90%

91-100%

DK/NA/Ref0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

35%

14%

8%

3%

3%

1%

1%

1%

0%

0%

36%

16.2%Average amount

among those offering an opinion

2012 National Voter Survey for NRDC

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…and still would like that proportion nearly doubled.

If you were in charge of your state’s transportation budget, what proportion of every dollar would you spend on improving and

maintaining public transportation – like buses or trains?

0-10%11-20%21-30%31-40%41-50%51-60%61-70%71-80%81-90%

91-100%

DK/NA/Ref0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

21%11%11%

6%12%

2%1%1%

0%1%

34%

28.1%Average amount

among those offering an opinion

2012 National Voter Survey for NRDC

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However, even after citizens hear how little their state actually takes in in gas taxes, they remain averse

to an increase.How acceptable would you find a proposal to increase gas taxes by $.05 per gallon to fund improvements to roads, highways and public transit in your state?

Very acceptable

Somewhat acceptable

Not too acceptable

Not at all acceptable

DK/NA

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

18%

21%

18%

39%

4%

TotalNot Too/At All

Acceptable57%

TotalAcceptable

39%

2012 National Voter Survey for NRDC

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For focus group participants a gas tax was a clear non-starter.

The immediate and overwhelmingly negative reaction to a gas tax – evident also in recent polling – cannot be over-stated.

One Philadelphia area woman burst out “Oh dear God!” upon being queried about a gas tax, and the immediate reaction was immediate and negative across all the groups.

“There’s no alternative to gas at the moment. Once you have this beautiful

transportation infrastructure in place and driving is purely optional, then you could put a significant tax on [gas]. But for now

there’s no choice.” - Raleigh male

There was a strong sense that the timing for a gas tax increase is wrong -- when the price of gas is already so high and many feel it will go higher.

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Voters back systems that would require others to pay, but – at the national level – are leery of a broad-based approach like a

sales tax.

15. I am going to read you a list of specific proposals that have been made for funding transportation improvements in your community. Please tell me whether you would find it acceptable or unacceptable as a way of funding transportation improvements in your community. *Split Sample.

Funding MechanismAccept-

ableUnaccept-

able

Create public-private partnerships so that developers and commercial land owners near new rail stops voluntarily agree to contribute to the cost of these rail lines and stops.

77% 16%

Creating toll systems to ensure that road and highway improvements are funded by the people who drive on them

58% 38%

*Increasing sales taxes by one-half of one cent 43% 52%

*Increasing sales taxes by one-quarter of one cent 41% 55%

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Voters have far more confidence in local government than state or federal government.

“Bailout fatigue” leads to greater voter support for public spending that will benefit them in tangible, local ways.

Most voters view transportation infrastructure as an economic investment.

So why did 79% of transit funding measures pass last November?

Though concerned about the economy, voters are becoming more confident about their personal financial situation.

Concern about tax rates remains relatively low.

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Stress the economic benefits of the measure in terms of job creation – both direct and indirect.

Make low per-household costs clear.

Highlight specific, flagship projects that are locally important.

Strategies for Local Revenue Success

Emphasize that funds will be spent locally – not at the state level.

Highlight fiscal accountability provisions – audits, oversight, public disclosure, sunset provisions, etc.

For more information, contact:

1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290Oakland, CA 94612

Phone (510) 451-9521Fax (510) 451-0384

Dave@FM3research.com