date: date: march january 24, 2014 - cash wheat report · 2018-04-03 · 7/ date: date: march...

7/

Date: January 24, 2014 Date: March 29, 2018

, 2017

Cash Wheat Market Cash markets were dead today as traders focused on logistics for the long weekend & the shock of the USDA stocks & acreage report. They’re also busy with month end, end of quarter & some end of year reports & M2M. We spent the day working on the report & the impact on balance sheets. The increased other spring wheat acres mark the end of the spring wheat premium to winter wheats, if growers end up planting those intentions. The spring wheat b/s could increase c/o by 100+ mbu next year & I’ve heard one analyst with HRW & HRS c/o the same next year. The rally in world wheat prices has winter wheats starting to price themselves more competitive & given the value of Argentine wheat northern Brazil millers should start asking for values of HRW, for which they’ll pay some premium for blending. Look at the prices paid by Egypt’s GASC in today’s tender, $220/mt fob equal $233-$235/mt c&f. This was a total shock to see them buy 355 kmt for April 28-May 8 shipment, which is right in the middle of their own wheat harvest. We have been increasing US exports as the spread to other origins has narrowed, & today we would put Morocco back into the HRW b/s with their 400-600 kmt preferential duty tender which they must do each year for November – March positions. We’d also be cutting some of the Black Sea exports into LAM in the 18/19 b/s, where our estimate is 500+ mmt greater this past year when prices were at their peak. The cut in Corn acreage intentions requires the spring planting weather & summer weather to be perfect & suggests we should look forward to a wild spring & summer market with very little downside in prices until crops are closer to the bin. This will also support wheat & suggests wheat feeding is a possibility in the USA & world feed wheat demand will continue to support prices at $200+/mt fob. Bottom-line, USDA’s report will result in exciting markets going into the spring & summer & US wheat & world wheat will be supported by corn, which is priced $190-$200/mt before any summer risk premium. Winter wheat and spring wheat planted acres were higher than trade estimates raising total all-wheat acres to 47.34 million acres, up 3% from a year ago. Prospective planted acres for soybeans was below market estimates at 88.98 million acres. This will be the lowered planted acres in Indiana, Kentucky, N.

Grain (mmt) March

Average

estimate

Lowest

estimate

Highest

estimate

USDA

Outlook

Forum

Estimates

USDA

2017

Planted

Acres

USDA

2018 WW

Seeding

All wheat 47.34 46.30 43.90 47.20 46.50 46.01 N/A

Winter Wheat 32.71 32.52 31.50 32.70 N/A 32.70 32.608

Other Spring 12.63 11.50 10.90 11.92 N/A 11.01 N/A

Durum 2.00 2.38 2.20 2.50 N/A 2.31 N/A

Soybeans 88.98 91.06 89.90 92.60 90.00 90.14 N/A

Corn 88.03 89.42 87.55 91.00 90.00 90.00 N/A

USDA March 2018 US Prospective Plantings Summary

Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on record. Corn prospective acres of 88 million acres is down 2% from a year ago and if realized will be the lowest planted acreage since 2015.

Wheat stocks of 1.494 bbu was down 10% from a year ago and inline with trade estimates. Corn stocks totaled 8.89 bbu, up 3% from a year ago and above trade estimates. Soybean stocks were on the high side of trade estimates at 2.107 bbu, up 21% from a year ago.

CCC March-1 Wheat-By-Class Stocks Estimates

USDM Highlights: In the South, moderate to extreme drought expanded in central and southern Texas. Extreme drought expanded in the Oklahoma Panhandle, Kansas, and Texas. In the High Plains, conditions improved in

Grain (mbu) March

Avg. Trade

Estimate High Est. Low Est

USDA Dec-1

2017

USDA Mar-1

2017

Wheat 1,494 1,498 1,640 1,450 1,874 1,659

Corn 8,888 8,703 8,881 8,550 12,516 8,622

Soybeans 2,107 2,030 2,110 1,810 3,157 1,739

USDA March-1 US Quarterly Stocks

Wheat (bu) All-Wheat HRW HRS SRW WW Durum

Mar-18 1,494 740 305 260 140 49

Dec-17 1,873 907 410 290 210 56

Cascade Commodity Consulting by Class Mar-1 Stocks

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North Dakota, South Dakota, and eastern Nebraska. In southern Kansas, southern and western Colorado extreme (D3) drought expanded. In the West, wheat cropping regions had drought relief from recent rains allowing D0-D1 conditions to contract. USDA reported 38% of winter wheat crop is in an area within drought (down 1% from last week).

Moderate (D1) 38%, Severe (D2) 28%, Extreme (D3) 15%, and Exceptional (D4) 3%.

Kansas (83%), Oklahoma (91%), Montana (5%), Colorado (42%), Texas (72%), Nebraska (2%), S. Dakota (27%), Oregon (3%), California (49%), Missouri (6%), N. Dakota (72%), and Virginia (6%).

7-Day Precipitation map indicates there will be no relief for HRW cropping regions suffering from severe-exceptional drought. Heavy rainfall is expected in the Corn Belt, lower Midwest, and Southeast.

USDA reported wheat net sales of 353,800 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2017/2018 were up 33% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were for Japan (105,800 MT), Nigeria (76,200 MT, including decreases of 1,800 MT), Indonesia (49,600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), the United Arab Emirates (36,000 MT, including 33,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Algeria (31,800 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Reductions were primarily reported for unknown destinations (11,000 MT), Ecuador (3,500 MT), and Guatemala (1,300 MT). For 2018/2019, net sales of 121,800 MT were reported for South Korea (77,700 MT), the Philippines (22,000 MT), unknown destinations (21,800 MT), and Nigeria (1,800 MT), were partially offset by reductions for Honduras (1,500 MT).

Hard Red Winter We haven’t seen the demand at the gulf yet, but looking at relative prices in FSU & Argentina suggests demand should start to shift back to HRW. Argentine wheat is now quoted $225-$230/mt fob, making HRW 12.5% protein (dmb) within $5/mt of Argentine delivered values, after the 10% non-Mercosur import tax, but if Brazil will/can buy Russian wheat then HRW has not chance. HRW/French wheat spread to Morocco is about $8/mt for new crop which would make HRW competitive after the preferential duty. US may be $10/mt away from being competitive to many buyers but we’re cheap enough for those willing to pay a premium for HRW to start to come back. The BNSF $4/mt rebate will certainly help to close this gap & I’d suggest this rebate should be extended to Brazil, but if Brazil will take Russian wheat then HRW has not chance. So this may not be bullish flat price or reason for prices to run away, it is close enough wheat doesn’t need to break, especially given the support expected from corn & soybeans.

Sales

Summary

(kmt) This Year Next Year This Year Last Year This Year Next Year Change

Wheat 353.8 121.8 22,808.4 26,249.1 4,345.5 878.3 88.6

HRW 113.9 20.8 8,939.3 10,785.4 1,230.2 199.7 20.8

SRW 28.3 - 2,393.3 2,355.5 561.5 155.7 10.2

HRS 69.3 62.9 5,944.0 8,147.7 14,728.9 152.2 (26.9)

White 140.6 38.2 5,158.4 4,515.9 1,059.1 56.5 82.8

Durum 1.8 - 373.6 444.5 65.9 1,859.0 1.8

Corn 1,353.1 287.0 46,454.9 47,423.7 23,491.4 2,007.1 (117.1)

Soybeans 317.5 69.7 50,351.1 54,669.9 9,352.4 169.4 (441.6)

Soymeal 184.1 - 8,694.6 8,344.6 3,177.0 0.8 (10.5)

Soyoil 34.6 - 649.4 749.7 238.4 2,779.1 (1.9)

WoW

Export

Sales

Week's net chg in

commitments Total Commitments Undelivered Sales

Weekly Export Sales for Week Ending March 29, 2018





Planted HRW acres adjustments from the January report are highlighted below showing reductions in Kansas and Texas. HRW planted acres are now pegged at 23.2 million acres, up from 23.1 million in January.

Kansas Mar-1 stocks of wheat totaled 347.725 mbu, down 20.215 mbu from a year ago. For the state, all grain stocks totaled 876.89 mbu, up 15.696 mbu. Since 2017, Kansas has added 25 mbu in off-farm storage, bringing the total off-farm storage to 1.1 bbu. Including on-farm storage, Kansas has 1.48 bbu of registered storage capacity for all grains. As of March 1st, Kansas had 603.1 mbu of available storage space, an increase of 9.304 mbu from a Mar-1 2017, including 244.5 mbu on-farm and 358.61 mbu off-farm. We are estimating Kansas HRW production will total around 275 mbu, and so, it appears on paper at least, that Kansas has plenty of room to store its 2018 HRW crop, and the calendar spreads will make sure it stays in storage ;-)

HRW 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Carryin, JUNE 1 387 317 343 237 294 446 589 530

Acres Harvested(Mln) 21.4 24.6 20.4 22.0 23.2 21.9 17.6 16.1

Yield 36.4 40.7 36.6 33.5 35.8 49.5 42.5 39.3

Production 783 998 747 739 830 1,082 750 634

Imports - 18 19 10 6 5 5 6

Supply 1,170 1,333 1,109 986 1,130 1,533 1,344 1,170

Seed 33 33 34 33 30 26 26 25

Food Use 404 400 368 370 391 385 385 385

Grain Exports 385 370 437 266 227 455 375 336

Non-Grain Exports 12 12 9 5 - - 6 1

Feed-Residual 19 175 24 17 37 78 21 30

Disappearance 853 990 872 692 685 944 814 777

Carryout, May 31 317 343 237 294 446 589 530 393

Carry out / use ratio 37.2% 34.6% 27.2% 42% 65% 62% 65% 51%

HRW ANNUAL BALANCE TABLE

State March January Change 2017

CO 2,400 2,150 250 2,250

KS 7,700 7,800 (100) 7,600

MT 1,600 1,550 50 1,750

NE 1,070 1,030 40 1,120

ND 90 90 - 70

OK 4,300 4,100 200 4,500

SD 830 850 (20) 910

TX 4,700 5,000 (300) 4,700

HRW March Planted Acres Adjustments

The widening of KCBT calendar spreads will support the cash basis & HRW should soon start to buy export demand at current relationships. Unless we start to see 1+ inches or rain per week across the HRW belt to maintain a crop estimate of 650-700+ mbu crop, the HRW b/s & c/o will reverse the trend of increasing c/o of HRW b/s, seen over the past few weeks. World prices have been going up & should continue to go up until northern hemisphere crops are made. GASC buying 355 kmt Russian/Romanian wheat for April 28-May 8 shipment is sending a bullish signal to those markets & the world in our opinion. Gulf basis is called unchanged w/o any dialog today. Gulf Track HRW 12% protein: Mar +150/175KWK8, A/M +155/175 KWK, J/J +140/160 KWN, A/S +140/150 KWU, O/N/D +150/175 KWZ, J/F/M +140/155 KWH19, A/M +140/150 KWK19. 11% protein: Mar +110/125 KWK, Apr +105/115 KWK, May +110/120 KWK, J/J +105/120 KWN, A/S +105/120 KWU, O/N/D +115/NO KWZ, J/F/M 105/115 KWH19, A/M +100/105 KWK19. Ordinary protein bids +80/100. The KC spot market closed up 7 ct/bu for 12.0-12.2% protein. Premium Change Premium Change

ord 70 to 85 0 0 12.60 155 to 170 0 0

11.00 105 to 120 0 0 12.80 155 to 170 0 0

11.20 112 to 127 0 0 13.00 165 to 180 0 0

11.40 117 to 132 0 0 13.20 165 to 180 0 0

11.60 125 to 140 0 0 13.40 165 to 180 0 0

11.80 128 to 143 0 0 13.60 165 to 180 0 0

12.00 135 to 150 7 7 13.80 165 to 180 0 0

12.20 135 to 150 7 7 14.00 165 to 180 0 0

12.40 137 to 152 0 0

Daily received/load-out from Kansas City (reported by CME, close of business 3/28): Hutchinson: 25.131/37.888 kbu, KC: 18.027/25.898 kbu, Salina: 28.695/0 kbu, Wichita: 141.143/400.954 kbu. Soft Red Winter

The SRW cash markets were quiet today. The CIF market is called unchanged, with no trades to report. Logistics have not improved much at the Gulf; barges are still way behind, as high water levels have slowed down traffic. There is more rain in the forecast for the Ohio River valley, so river levels will only

2017 2018 Change 2017 2018 Change 2017 2018 Change

Wheat 15,500 12,500 -3,000 352,440 335,225 -17,215 367,940 347,725 -20,215

Corn 79,000 93,000 14,000 213,624 234,159 20,535 292,624 327,159 34,535

Sorghum 13,500 8,000 -5,500 103,688 82,884 -20,804 117,188 90,884 -26,304

Oats - - - 407 232 -175 - - -

Soybeans 16,000 22,000 6,000 68,194 88,890 20,696 84,194 110,890 26,696

TOTAL 124,000 135,500 11,500 738,353 741,390 3,037 861,194 876,890 15,696

Storage Cap. 380,000 380,000 0 1,075,000 1,100,000 25,000 1,455,000 1,480,000 25,000

Stx as % of storage 32.63% 35.66% 3.03% 68.68% 67.40% -1.28% 59.19% 59.25% 0.06%

Available Space 256,000 244,500 -11,500 336,647 358,610 21,963 593,806 603,110 9,304

Kansas Mar-1 Grain Stocks

On-Farm Off-Farm Total





rise further and hinder barge movement. The domestic market is seeing mills 95% covered Apr/May and feeling confident they have bridged the gap between old and new crop. There remains about a 20 ct/bu spread between bid/offers for new crop, with mills unwilling to go long at this time. SRW planted acres are 5.85 million acres, down from 5.98 million acres in January. By state changes are in the table below.

CIF barge bid/offer: Mar +70/NO WK, Apr +65/75 WK, Apr/May +65/77 WK, May +65/80 WK, J/J +45/55 WN, A/S +40/NO WU, O/N/D +55/NO WZ, J/F/M +50/NO WH9. Elevator/Mill Bids: NW Ohio mills: Mar +15 WK, Apr/May +10 WK, Jul/Aug +0 WN; Chicago warehouse: Mar -10 WK, New Crop -20 WN; Toledo warehouse: Mar +5 WK, Apr/May +5 WK, Jun -5 WN, Jul/Aug -5 WN; Eastern Indiana mill: Mar +15 WK, New Crop +20 WN, Aug/Sep +15/20 WU. Daily received/load-outs from Chicago (reported by CME, close of business 3/28): Chicago: 5.626/0 kbu, MS River: 91.522/325.174 kbu, NW Ohio: 0/11.457 kbu, OH River: 74.09/252.911 kbu, St. Louis: 33.368/0 kbu, Toledo: 1.626/111.132 kbu.

Hard Red Spring There were 43 singles and one train offered on the spot floor today. 13% protein cars traded at +85 MWK and 13.5’s traded at +120 MWK. 14% protein traded down 15 ct/bu on the low side, at +135 MWK, and up 15 ct/bu on the high side, at +165 MWK. 15% protein traded at +180 MWK on the low side, down 5 ct/bu, and unchanged on the high side, at +190 MWK. Spring wheat prospective planted acres are up 15% from a year ago at 12.63 million acres. Most in the trade expected increases in spring wheat area, but no one that we talked to expected such a large increase as this. Minnesota spring wheat is up 38% YoY and North Dakota is up 20%, the highest planted area in both states since 2015/16, while Montana spring wheat area is unchanged YoY.


AR 180 170 10 200

IL 560 530 30 500

IN 300 330 (30) 290

KY 440 460 (20) 480

MD 330 410 (80) 410

MI 530 530 - 480

MS 50 35 15 45

MO 660 690 (30) 640

NC 480 460 20 450

OH 490 530 (40) 460

TN 400 360 40 370

VA 330 410 (80) 410

WI 230 260 (30) 210

SRW March Planted Acres Adjustments

Daily received/load-out from Minneapolis & Duluth (reported by MGEX, close of business 3/28): Minneapolis: 10/45 kbu, Duluth: 361/89 kbu. PNW Exporters are starting to scramble to buy wheat to fulfill Apr/May commitments & they’re starting to see feed wheat buyers at least asking for values of SWW. SWW was $210/mt just 10 days earlier & that is even money to Russian wheat today. Today exporters don’t have the elevation capacity to sell more wheat for Apr/May & now they fear the barge/track bids will soon be $6.00/bu to buy wheat from growers. Exporters are not aggressive sellers of wheat from the PNW since they don’t have the capacity or know where they can find replacement. Until they can cover more of their cash shorts track & barge basis will remain firm. Track/barge basis is unchanged, but exporters are paying edges, while fob vessel values are up 5+ ct/bu today.

HRS 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Carryin, JUNE 1 185 151 165 169 212 272 235 191

Acres Harvested (mln) 11.3 11.5 10.7 12.0 12.3 10.7 9.7 11.8

Yield 35.2 44.0 45.8 46.3 46.0 46.2 39.8 47.6

Production 396 503 491 556 568 491 385 554

Imports 35 44 78 66 49 42 74 60

Supply 616 698 733 791 828 805 694 804

Seed 19 13 19 24 17 15 17 19

Food Use 223 228 266 266 251 250 252 255

Grain Exports 241 231 244 266 244 321 230 254

Non-Grain Exports 2 2 2 7 8 6 6

Feed-Residual (19) 60 33 16 36 -16 -1 -6

Disappearance 465 533 564 579 556 570 504 527

Carryout, May 31 151 165 169 212 272 235 190 277

Carry out / use ratio 32.5% 31.0% 30% 37% 49% 41% 38% 52%

HRS ANNUAL BALANCE TABLE





White wheat planted acres are 3.64 million acres, up from 3.56 million in January. By state changes are in the table below.

PNW Track/barge bids:

Shipment Period DNS 14% HRW 11.5% WW 10.5%

Apr/May +160/165 MWK +160/160 KWK 573/573 ct/bu

Jun/Jul +150/150 MWN +145/125KWN 573/570 ct/bu

Aug/Sep +120/130 MWU +105/110 KWU 565/570 ct/bu

World Wheat News

Thailand Feed Wheat tender traded $238/mt C&F for May shipment. World Wheat FOB Comparisons:


CA 380 340 40 385

ID 780 730 50 720

OR 720 710 10 700

WA 1,700 1,700 - 1,700

Winter White March Planted Acres Adjustments

Origin Russian German Baltic Argentina HRW HRW HRW French UK SRW

Protein (dmb) 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 11.50% 12.50% 11.00% 10.20% 11.00% 11.00% 10.20%

Protein (12% mb) 11.00% 11.00% 11.00% 10.12% 11.00% 9.68% 9.00% 9.68% 9.68% 9.00%

May $208 $215 $212 $225 $216 $212 $210 $209 $219 -

Jun $209 $218 $215 $230 $221 $219 $217 $209 $221 $200

Jul $197 $220 $218 $235 $223 $221 $219 $206 $222 $200

Aug $198 $221 $219 - $228 $226 $224 $208 $224 $202

World Wheat FOB Comparisons

Origin APW AH2 ASW HRW PNW HRW PNW SWW NS NS CWRS CWRS

Protein (dmb) 11.80% 12.90% 10.10% 12.00% 13.10% 12.00% 15.30% 15.90% 15.50% 15.90%

Protein (local) 10.50% 11.50% 9.00% 10.50% 11.50% 10.50% 13.50% 14.00% 13.50% 13.80%

May $241 $256 $231 $232 $243 $220 $277 $279 $253 $258

Jun $242 $257 $232 $232 $243 $219 $276 $278 $252 $258

Jul $242 $257 $232 $228 $239 $213 $274 $276 $254 $260

Aug $242 $257 $232 $221 $235 $211 $268 $270 $255 $261

World Wheat FOB Comparisons

South America February wheat inspections data for Argentina showed 1.75 million MT of wheat cleared for export. Shipments month-on-month decreased to Brazil 266 kmt however shipments to Chili, Algeria, Indonesia, Colombia, Nigeria, and S. America increased.

Origin Month Quality Bid/Offer ($USD/MT)

Argentine Upriver March 11.0% pro Seller $210

Argentine Upriver May/Jun/Jul/Nov/Dec 11.5% pro Seller $225/230/235/204/204

Argentine Upriver April/Nov/Dec 12.0% pro Seller $230/217/217

Necochea March 11% pro No mention

$1 USD= AR $20.16 Pesos $1 USD= R $3.31 Reales

Canada #2 CWRS fob Vancouver quotes May/Jun/Jul over the respective: 12.5% protein +60/50/55, 13.0% protein +70/65/70, 13.5% protein +100/95/100, and around a +35 cent premium for 13.8% protein. February inspections were released for Canadian non-durum wheat pegging exports at 1.022 million MT, down 42% from last month. The drop in monthly inspections is undoubtedly credited to the poor railway performance. Durum wheat exports totaled 337 kmt, down slightly from the previous month’s total of 350.26 kmt.





Australia CME contract traded 200 contracts May at $241/mt. May-June indications are bid/offer $235-$240/mt fob WA for APW, with around a $10/mt discount for ASW and a $15/mt premium for AH2.

Black Sea & Europe The Matif closed up 0.75€ at 163.75€ for the May contract. FOB quotes Apr/May/Jun for Russian 12.5% pro: $208/209/210/mt (11.5% pro $5/mt discount), French 11.5% pro: $207/208/208/mt, German 12.5% pro: $212/214/216/mt, Baltic 12.5% pro: $210/$212/$214/mt, 25 kmt feed wheat: $200/$201/$202/mt. Russian saw some trades at the offers on Wednesday & after the GASC purchase today there are no offers at any price. GASC surprised everyone with 355 kmt procurement of Russian/Romanian wheat, paying an average price $234.57 c&f. The CME contract traded 100 contracts July at $200/mt & September traded 200 contracts at $202/mt & May traded 60 contracts at $206/mt before all offers were pulled after the GASC procurement was announced. Exporters fear they’ll continue to struggle with logistics & lack of supply from shippers until they get into harvest in the south this summer. GASC specifications & risk has commanded a $10/mt premium & today’s purchase of 240 kmt Russian at $217-$219.30 fob for April 28-May 8 is another new high for the season. EU soft wheat exports are down 23% at 14.3 million through March 27th.

GASC received 11 offers for its LH April-May shipping period including its first French offer since December 12, 2017 for its January 21-31, 2018 shipment. It’s interesting to point out that SRW would have been the cheapest wheat to Egypt if someone offered it. Below is the offer lineup for today’s tender.

GASC bought 355 kmt Russian wheat and 120 kmt of Romanian wheat in today’s wheat purchases. Total wheat purchased by GASC is not 6.575 million MT of this 5.3.25 million MT is Russian wheat.

Russian

Amount

(kmt) Price Romanian

Amount

(kmt) Price French

Amount

(kmt) Price

Cargill 60 221.00$ Ameropa 60 221.09$ Casillo 60 225.23$

ADM 60 219.50$ Ameropa 55 222.59$

Solaris 55 223.22$ GTCS 55 217.00$

Aston 60 219.70$

Daewoo 60 218.50$

GTCS 60 218.00$

GTCS 60 220.00$

Average 219.99$ Average 220.23$ Average 225.23$

Spread 5.22$ Spread 5.59$ Spread -$

Average 112.60$ Average 112.91$

Spread 214.77$ Spread 214.64$

GASC Offers for Shipment Arpil 28-May 8, 2018

Previous Tender FOB Offer Prices by Origin

Company GTCS GTCS Daewoo ADM Aston GTCS Cargill Ameropa Average

Origin Russian Russian Russian Russian Russian Russian Romanian Romanian

Price 217.00$ 218.00$ 218.40$ 219.30$ 219.30$ 219.90$ 219.90$ 219.65$ 218.93$

Quantity 55 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

Freight 16.18$ 16.20$ 16.20$ 16.20$ 16.20$ 15.00$ 14.00$ 15.15$ 15.64$

C&F 233.18$ 234.20$ 234.60$ 235.50$ 235.50$ 234.90$ 233.90$ 234.80$ 234.57$

GASC purchased 475 kmt of wheat for April 28-May 4, 2018 Shipment





Pending Tenders April 3: Jordan tender 100 kmt wheat Aug-Sep shipment. April 4: USDA CCC tender to purchase 23.5 kmt of minimum 14% protein northern spring wheat

for May 10-20 shipment to Sri Lanka. Futures Comments

U.S. wheat futures closed up 5.50 cents in Chicago and up 6.25 cents in Kansas City, supported by USDA’s bullish corn & soybean report, both making key reversals from the three-day downward trend. Minneapolis, on the other hand, was hammered by a bearish spring wheat report, which showed ‘other spring wheat’ area up 15% from 2017, with futures settling 11.00 cents lower. July contracts finished the week 12.00 cents lower in KC, 8.00 cents lower in Chicago, and 22.75 cents lower in Minneapolis. World wheat prices have

thankfully not kept pace with the U.S. decline and so, U.S. new crop wheat is now close to buying back some demand. The significant increase in spring wheat area reported by USDA looks to have pushed the Minneapolis –KC spread off the edge. The spread had been stalled out in overbought territory, waiting for a reason to move, and now it’s off to the races. We could see the premium for MWN over KWN dwindle from

$1.00/bu to just $0.50/bu very quickly. Similarly, the wheat-corn spread continues to narrow, pushed further today by the bullish corn outlook, and, if this trend continues, we could see more wheat working into the feed rations. Today’s USDA reports suggest an interesting new crop year is ahead, filled with bountiful trading opportunities Happy Easter! Best regards, Al, Emily & Jason Conway Comments and questions are welcomed Contact our office (503) 631-7578 or email [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]

date: date: march january 24, 2014 - cash wheat report · 2018-04-03 · 7/ date: date: march...

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