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Page 1: Date: 21 May, 2020 › hsl.docs › The-Daily... · which should keep the sustained growth in the US business. Bajaj Auto Q4FY20 PAT flat yoy at Rs 1310cr Total revenues of the company

Date: 21 May, 2020

Page 2: Date: 21 May, 2020 › hsl.docs › The-Daily... · which should keep the sustained growth in the US business. Bajaj Auto Q4FY20 PAT flat yoy at Rs 1310cr Total revenues of the company

The Daily Viewpoint

Page 2Retail Research

DOMESTIC INDICES

Close Points % Change

SENSEX 30819 622 2.06

NIFTY 9067 187 2.11

MIDCAP 11278 166 1.49

SMALL CAP 10472 117 1.13

SECTORAL INDICES

Close Points % Change

Healthcare 15354 471 3.16

CG 11299 342 3.12

Finance 4166 118 2.90

CD 18227 476 2.68

OIL & GAS 11051 272 2.52

REALTY 1299 30 2.39

BANKEX 20552 445 2.21

AUTO 12710 259 2.08

METAL 6204 73 1.19

POWER 1443 13 0.89

IT 13657 60 0.44

TECK 7085 8 0.12

BSE 200 GAINERS/LOSERS

GAINERS % LOSERS %

LICHSGFIN 7.54 INFRATEL -7.95

PAGEIND 7.40 OFSS -2.94

LTI 6.86 INDUSINDBK -2.85

AUROPHARMA 6.81 NAUKRI -2.75

DLF 6.32 HEROMOTOCO -2.45

ADVANCE/DECLINES

BSE %

ADVANCES 1287 52

DECLINES 1029 41

UNCHANGED 170 7

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Rs Cr 20/05/20 19/05/20 May Total

FII -1467 -1328 6595(prov.)

MF 2373 1660 4936(prov.)

Markets could open flat in line with most other Asian marketsbut may attempt to rise later …

Indian markets could open flat today following flat to mildly upAsian markets today and despite sharply positive US markets onWednesday.

The benchmark S&P 500 stock index closed at a 10-week highWednesday, following upbeat quarterly results from retailersTarget and Lowe’s that had investors focused on Americanbusinesses reopening and the coronavirus pandemic beginningto recede.

But stocks came off the session’s best levels as a bill to delistChinese companies on U.S. exchanges cleared the Senate. Thisbill seeks to force Chinese companies to adhere to U.S.securities law, ultimately by barring many from listing shares onU.S. exchanges, or otherwise raising money from Americaninvestors. The bill still would need to pass the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives before reaching thepresident’s desk to be signed into law.

Investors focused on the positives and directed their attentionto wider reopening plans that are taking place throughout theU.S. Many states have been lifting restrictions on business andpersonal activity ahead of the Memorial Day holiday nextMonday.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $6.50, or 0.4%, to settle at$1,752.10 an ounce. Crude prices for July delivery soared to a10-week high, adding $1.53 cents, or 4.8%, to finish at $33.49 abarrel, after weekly data showed U.S. crude supplies falling by 5million barrels.

Copper prices hit a two-month high ahead of a Chinesegovernment meeting this week that is expected to boostdemand with pledges of higher spending on infrastructure.

Japan’s trade data for April showed exports in April plunging21.9% as compared to a year earlier (vs 22.7% drop predicted).The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan May Manufacturing PurchasingManagers’ Index (PMI) slipped to a seasonally adjusted 38.4from a final 41.9 in April, its lowest since March 2009.

Britain sold a government bond with a negative yield for thefirst time on Wednesday, meaning the government is effectivelybeing rewarded for borrowing after investors agreed to berepaid slightly less than they lent.

Asian shares were flat to mildly up on Thursday after globalequities and crude prices rallied overnight on hopes of a rapideconomic recovery and government support.

Indian equity indices rose for the second straight session onMay 20, after a post 1330 Hrs surge took benchmark indices totheir highest point of the day. The NSE Nifty 50 index endedwith gains of 187.4 points or 2.1 percent at 9,066, recoveringalmost 200 points from the lowest point of the day.Technically Nifty has given first signs of providing a meaningfulrise by breaking above 9044. The next resistance is at 9158,while the support is at 9044-9000 band.

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The Daily Viewpoint

Page 3Retail Research

GLOBAL INDICES

EXCHANGE RATES

Value % Change

USD/INR 75.5 0.20

EURO/USD 1.096 -0.14

USD/GBP 1.220 -0.34

USD/JPY 107.7 0.14

COMMODITIES

Value %

Gold ($ / Oz) 1745.3 -0.39

Silver ($ / Oz) 17.8 -1.04

Crude Oil Futures 33.6 0.21

Brent Oil ($ / Barrel) 35.9 0.42

BOND YIELD

Value % Chg bps

IND10 Yr Bond Yield 6.04 +1

ADR

Value $ %

Dr Reddys Labs 51.74 6.31

HDFC Bank 37.77 5.30

ICICI Bank 8.17 3.68

Tata Motors 5.51 3.57

Wipro 2.93 1.38

Vedanta Ltd 4.71 -2.08

INFOSYS 9.00 2.39

Close Points % Chg

DOW JONES 24576 369.04 1.52

S & P 500 2972 48.67 1.67

NASDAQ 9376 190.67 2.08

FTSE 6067 64.93 1.08

CAC 4497 38.82 0.87

DAX 11224 148.42 1.34

NIKKEI 225 20564 -31.15 -0.15

SHANGHAI COMP. 2883 -1.22 -0.04

HANG SENG 24257 -142.95 -0.59

BOVESPA 81319 577.10 0.71

Domestic flights to resume from May 25Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that domestic civilaviation operations to recommence in a calibrated manner fromMay 25. All airports & air carriers are being informed to beready for operations from May 25. Standard of procedures forpassenger movement are also being separately issued by theministry.

RIL's Nowfloats forays into tele-medicineReliance Industries-owned Nowfloats plans to enter into thetele-medicine vertical with an initial target to bring 100,000doctors on board in the next 3-4 months. The company willgradually expand to other tele-medicine ecosystems like e-pharmacy, health check-ups and healthcare related service.

Dr Reddy's Q4 Profit increased 76% YoY to Rs 764 croreDr Reddy's Laboratories reported 75.9 percent yoy jump inconsolidated net profit at Rs 764.2 crore for the March quarter.EBITDA margin rose 60 bps to 22.6 percent while PAT marginleaped to 17.2 percent from 10.8 percent earlier.

North America remained its biggest generics market with Rs1,807.2 crore of revenue from the region. Europe contributedwith Rs 344.6 crore and India business at Rs 683.9 crore.

The management also highlighted that it had gained marketshare in some products. Price erosion in the US has been lowbecause of higher demand for medical supplies but pricingpressure could be an issue again once the pandemic passes.Company has lined up about 25 product launches this year,which should keep the sustained growth in the US business.

Bajaj Auto Q4FY20 PAT flat yoy at Rs 1310crTotal revenues of the company declined 8.2% YoY to Rs 6,816crore. Volumes were down 17% during the quarter to 9.9 lakhunits, however exports increased by 15%.

EBITDA for the quarter increased 3% YoY to Rs 1,293 crore whileEBITDA margins expanded 200bps to 19%. Net profit after taxwas flat at Rs 1,310 crore. The results were above streetexpectations. The interim dividend declared in February hasbeen considered as final dividend.

Ajanta Pharma Q4 Net Profit up 45% to Rs 129 croreDomestic revenues grew 11% yoy to Rs 177cr, while exportsrevenues witnessed strong 43% growth at Rs 490cr. USrevenues jumped 88% and Asia business grew 46% yoy. EBITDAmargin dipped ~300bps to 22% on the back of higher otherexpenses. Other Income surged to Rs 56.7cr as compared to Rs1.6cr a year ago. PAT was up 45% yoy at Rs 129.2cr.

Jubilant Foodworks Q4 FY20 results highlightsJubilant Foodworks reported mixed set of numbers, reportingrevenues of Rs 909 Cr, registering a 4% growth. Reported netprofit was down 58% at Rs.32.53 Cr. On standalone basis,EBITDA margins dropped 686bps. SSG was strong for the firsttwo months with 7.2% and 13.1% growth in January andFebruary, however fell 28.4% in March. For the quarter, SSGwas at 3.8%. The company also witnessed the highestcontribution of online orders to total delivery sales at 89%.

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The Daily Viewpoint

Page 4Retail Research

While Q1 FY21 will be more severely impacted, given the continuity of operations even during the lockdown, and one ofthe highest share of sales generated through online channels, Jubilant's outperformance to peer, cost control, andmarket share gains will be key monitorables.

Birlasoft Q4 FY20 results updateRevenues grew 9% qoq to Rs 907cr. EBITDA for the quarter increased 9% qoq to Rs 117cr. Company reported 5% declinein PAT on the back of higher taxes. As on Mar-2020, company has net cash & equivalents of Rs 666cr. Board declared Rs1 per share as final dividend.

Ultratech Cement Q4 FY20 resultsThe company posted results below estimates. Revenue of the company declined 13% yoy to Rs.10745.6 cr. EBIDTAregistered degrowth of 4% yoy to Rs.2443 cr, Margin expanded 300 bps to 25 percent. PAT surged 198% yoy toRs.3239.4 cr. The company has reversed DTL of earlier years which led to sharp surge in profit in Q4FY20. Capacityutilization was at ~80% despite COVID-19. The brand transition of Century cement to Ultratech completed for ~65%production and target of ~84% production to be transitioned to UltraTech brand by Q3 FY21.

Strides Pharma Q4 FY20 results highlightsAdjusted revenues grew 25% yoy at Rs 771cr. EBITDA almost doubled to Rs 192cr. On the back of exceptional loss of Rs170cr, net loss for the quarter was at Rs 207cr. Company guided for 25% growth in US business for FY21. Boardrecommended Rs 2 per share as final dividend.

Grindwell Norton Q4FY20 ResultsStandalone revenues declined 10% YoY to Rs 358 crore. Sales of abrasives fell by 13% while ceramics and plastics saleswere down 8%. EBITDA margin expanded 127bps YoY to 20% on lower material costs.

Net profit increased 10% YoY to Rs 45 crore on account of lower taxes. The company has declared a dividend of Rs 7.5per share.

JK Lakshmi Cement Q4FY20 resultsCompany posted results below expectations. Revenue of the company declined 11% yoy to Rs.1137.5 cr. EBIDTA of thecompany registered 31.8% growth to Rs.365.8 cr. PAT surged 147% yoy to Rs.98.6 cr led by cost reductions.

Kalpataru Power Q4 FY20 resultsKalpataru Power reported 7.6% yoy decline in revenue at Rs 2303cr. PAT was down by 21.8% to Rs 107cr yoy, andEBITDA was also down by 5% to Rs 253cr yoy.

However, for the full year FY20, revenues grew 11% to Rs 7904cr. EBITDA was up 10.5% at Rs 860cr, and PAT was alsoup by 15.4% at Rs 463cr. The company had paid an interim dividend of Rs 3.5 per share earlier.

Bajaj Finserv Q4FY20 Result ExpectationRevenues from operations are expected to increase by 27% YoY to Rs 14,100 crore. However, operating profit is likely tofall by 25% to Rs 1,997 crore while net profit may see marginal rise to Rs 855 crore.

Colgate Q4 FY20 results previewColgate is expected to report flat revenue and volumes numbers in Q4 FY20. EBITDA margin is expected to decline80bps to 26%. PAT may dip 8% yoy at Rs 185cr. The company has had recent new launches and re-launches in its coreportfolio which might safeguard the portfolio against significant volume declines. Key monitorables to be ASP spendsand toothpaste volume and market share growth.

Q4FY20 Results key takeaways JSW Energy ltdThe company reported a 6.8% decline in revenue during the quarter from Rs 1924.6cr last year to Rs1793.4cr. However,EBITDA during the quarter was up by 20.6%, up from Rs 476.8cr last year to Rs 574.8cr, mainly due to lower fuel costs.PAT was up by 1452.7%, up from Rs 5.8cr last year to Rs 89.9cr.

During the full year FY20, revenue was down by 9.5%, from Rs 9137.9cr in FY19 to Rs 8272.7cr. However, EBITDA was upby 3.6% at Rs 2956.9cr from Rs 2853.1cr last year, and PAT was up by 58% from Rs 684.5cr to Rs 1081.2cr yoy. EPSearned for the full year was Rs 6.70/- up from Rs 4.24/-.

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The Daily Viewpoint

Page 5Retail Research

The company announced a final dividend of Re 1/- per share.

Q4FY20 Results key takeaways GHCL ltdGHCL reported a 17.4% decline in revenue during its fourth quarter, where it was down from Rs 907.9cr last year to Rs750.1cr. EBITDA was down from Rs 239.2cr last year to Rs 155.96cr (a 34.8% decline). PAT was also down by 28.9% fromRs 119.4cr to Rs 84.9cr. There was a decline in revenue in both of its segments (Inorganic Chemicals 15% & HomeTextiles 22.2%)

During the full year revenue was down by 1.1% from Rs 3341.3cr to Rs 3305.1cr, EBITDA was also down by 4.1%, downfrom Rs 759.4cr to Rs 728cr. However, PAT was up by 13.1% from Rs 350.6cr to Rs 396.6cr, mainly due to lower taxes,and a deferred tax item of Rs 42.93. EPS earned for the full year is Rs 40.50, up from Rs 35.81.

Important Global news/developments to influence markets India’s M3 Money Supply increased from 10.7% to 11.5%.

Japan's core private-sector machinery orders declined in March from a month earlier the orders, excluding those forships and utilities because of their volatility, edged down 0.4 percent in March from the previous month.

Eurozone CPI was finalized at 0.3% yoy in April, down from 0.7% yoy in March. Core CPI was finalized at 0.9% yoy,down from March’s 1.0% yoy.

Euro zone consumer confidence rose by 3.2 points in May from the April number. a flash estimate showed euro zoneconsumer morale improved to -18.8 this month from -22.0 in April.

The Eurozone CPI for April, came in at +0.3% on a yearly basis, missing the flash estimate of +0.4% and +0.4%expectations. While the core figures rose by 0.9% versus +0.9% previous and +0.9% expectations.

The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate came in at +0.8% in April when compared to +1.5% booked inMarch while missing expectations of a +0.9% print.

UK’s PPI input came in at -5.2% mom, -9.8% yoy, below expectation of -3.7% mom, -8.4% yoy.

MBA’s seasonally adjusted index measuring purchase applications rose 6% last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 526.5 millionbarrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 10% above the five year average for this time of year.

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The Daily Viewpoint

Page 6Retail Research

Daily View on Nifty

Nifty Hourly Timeframe (60min) Nifty Daily Timeframe

Technical Observation:Carrying on from the previous session, markets continued to move higher on Wednesday. The Nifty had opened on a positive note and touched a low of 8877 before rallying higher. The Nifty finally gained 187.45 points or 2.11% to close at 9,066.55. Themarket breadth was positive, indicating that the underlying tone was bullish.

Zooming into the daily charts, we observe that the Nifty has gained for the second consecutive day and closed above the previous session’s high. The index however continues to trade below the 13-day and 50-day SMA. Also while the 14-day RSI has bounced back, it is yet to cross its recent highs.

The 60 minute Nifty chart however indicates a reversal in the short term trend as the sequence of lower tops and lower bottoms has reversed.

Immediate upside targets for the Nifty are now at the previous highs of 9159. If the Nifty can convincingly cross that level, which also roughly coincides with the 50-day SMA, then we could see a reversal in the current 7-day downtrend and there could be more upsides in store.

Conclusion:The 1-2 day trend has reversed with the Nifty reversing the sequence of lower tops and lower bottoms seen on the 60-minute charts. Immediate upside targets for the Nifty are now at the previous highs of 9159. If the Nifty can convincingly cross that level, which also roughly coincides with the 50-day SMA, then we could see a reversal in the current 7-day downtrend and there could be more upsides in store.

Nifty LTP 2-Day View Reversal level 7-Day View Reversal level

9067Further upsides

expectedMove below 8877 Bearish Move above 9159

Targets for 2 day: 9159

Targets: 8360-8055

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The Daily Viewpoint

Page 7Retail Research

DATA & EVENTS

OPEN SHORT-TERM TRADING CALLS

NOTE: ALL TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS GIVEN BY TEAM ARE ON REAL TIME BASIS. A TRADING RECOMMENDATION SHOULD BECONSIDERED CLOSED OR SQUARED OFF AS AND WHEN A STOPLOSS OR TARGET IS TOUCHED IN INTRADAY TRADING. DO NOT WAIT FORTARGET ACHIEVED OR STOPLOSS MESSAGE TO CLOSE THE POSITIONS. REFER JAMMOON FOR TIMELY ENTRY AND EXIT FROMRECOMMENDATIONS.

NO. RECO DATE COMPANY NAME RECO COST SL TARGET TIME DURATION

1 14-MAY-20 IPCA LAB BUY 1584-1536 1513 1679 1-7 DAYS

2 18-MAY-20 VEDL MAY FUT BUY 90-93.25 87.8 110 1-3 DAYS

3 19-MAY-20 TECH MAHINDRA BUY 516.45-498 493.5 545 1-7 DAYS

4 20-MAY-20 APOLLO HOSPITAL 1340 MAY CALL OPTION BUY 20.95 12 35 1-3 DAYS

5 20-MAY-20 ACC 1300 MAY CALL OPTION BUY 17 11.8 30 1-3 DAYS

6 20-MAY-20 DR REDDY'S LAB BUY 3750-3840 3700 4120 1-7 DAYS

7 20-MAY-20 LAURAS LAB BUY 447-456 444 473 1-7 DAYS

8 20-MAY-20 NIIT TECH MAY FUT BUY 1411.15-1396 1390 1455 1-3 DAYS

9 20-MAY-20 ACC MAY FUT BUY 1167.60-1155 1148 1202 1-3 DAYS

NO. RECO DATE COMPANY NAME RECO COST SL TARGET TIME DURATION

1 28-APR-20 DR LAL PATH LAB BUY 1556-1587 1388 1742/1850 3 MONTHS

2 29-APR-20 ENDURANCE BUY 645-600 585 710 2 MONTHS

3 11-MAY-20 ERIS LIFESCIENCE BUY 445-495 426 555/590 3 MONTHS

4 13-MAY-20 JK CEMENT BUY 1104-1055 1025 1199/1260 3 MONTHS

5 13-MAY-20 TATA ELXSI BUY 795-755 725 875/920 3 MONTHS

6 20-MAY-20 EMAMI LTD BUY 205-190 183 225/255 3 MONTHS

OPEN CASH POSITIONAL CALLS

OPEN DERIVATIVE POSITIONAL CALLS

NO. RECO DATE COMPANY NAME RECO COST SL TARGET TIME DURATION

1 18-MAY-20 JUST DIAL MAY FUT SELL 328-349 358 295 TILL 28TH MAY

2 18-MAY-20 LIC HOUSING FINANCE JUN FUT SELL 227-232 252 202/190 1-6 WEEKS

3 18-MAY-20 ICICI PRU JUN FUT SELL 362-368 390 334 1-6 WEEKS

4 18-MAY-20 CENTURY TEXTILE MAY FUT SELL 259-272 277 237/229 TILL 28TH MAY

5 18-MAY-20 SUN TV MAY FUT SELL 360-385 394 325 TILL 28TH MAY

6 18-MAY-20 EICHER MOTORS MAY FUT SELL 13250-13900 14200 12050 TILL 28TH MAY

7 19-MAY-20 MANAPPURAM FINANCE JUN FUT SELL 116-124 128 105 10-15 SESSION

OPEN PAIR TRADES

NO. RECO DATE COMPANY NAME RECO COST SL TARGET TIME DURATION

1 18-MAY-20TCS MAY FUT BUY 1921.3 1850 2080

TILL 28TH MAY 2020WIPRO MAY FUT SELL 183.1 191 170.5

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The Daily Viewpoint

Page 8Retail Research

DATA & EVENTS

QUARTERLY RESULTS ANNOUNCED

COMPANY Q4FY20 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Remarks

Sales (Rs Cr)

NP (Rs Cr)

Sales NP Sales NP

Ajanta Pharma 682 129 32 45 5 20As Per

Estimates

Bajaj Auto 6816 1310 -8 0 -11 4Above

Estimates

Dr. Reddy’s 4449 781 10 72 1 LPAbove

Estimates

GHCL 750 85 -17 -29 -11 -12As Per

Estimates

Grindwell Norton 358 45 -10 10 -11 1As Per

Estimates

JK Lakshmi Cement 1137 99 -11 147 6 94Below

Estimates

JSW Energy 1793 90 -7 1452 -8 -78As Per

Estimates

Jubilant Foodworks 909 33 4 -58 -15 -68As Per

Estimates

Kalptaru Power 2303 107 -8 -22 16 -22As Per

Estimates

Ultratech Cement 10746 3239 -13 198 4 355Below

Estimates

PL: Profit to Loss, LP: Loss to Profit, LL: Loss to Loss

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The Daily Viewpoint

Page 9Retail Research

Disclaimer:This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. Theinformation and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith fromsources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty,express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to changewithout notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securitiesmentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation ofan offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any personor entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication,reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration orlicensing requirement within such jurisdiction.If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored andbrought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purposes withoutprior written approval of HSL.Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have anadverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values ofwhich are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HSL may from time to time solicit from,or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments.HSL and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buyor sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities andearn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein oract as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to anyrecommendation and other related information and opinions.HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustaineddue to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices ofshares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities andfinancial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time to time or may dealin other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.

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