data report 2013

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FINANCING THE FIGHT

FOR AFRICAS TRANSFORMATION

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Wold Halth Ogazato ad th

ft va to b atd pfally

fo a da that pmaly mpat

Afa popl, mgooal A.

Photo: Ga Moga/PATH

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nuy hool tudt at a luh

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Wa, ethopa.

Photo: Davd syd/Th Hug Pojt

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AcknOWLeDGeMenTs

e would like to thank ONEs board members and trusted advisors:

Bono, Josh Bolten, Howie Buffett, Susie Buffett, Joe Cerrell,

John Doerr, Jamie Drummond, Michael Elliott, Tom Freston, HeleneGayle, Mort Halperin, Mo Ibrahim, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Jeff Raikes,

Condoleezza Rice, Sheryl Sandberg, Kevin Sheekey, Bobby Shriver

and Lawrence Summers, as well as ONEs Africa Policy Advisory Board members:

Charles Abugre Akelyira, Dr. Melvin Ayogu, Amadou Mahtar Ba, Owen Barder,

David Barnard, Erik Charas, Romy Chevallier, Paul Collier, Nic Dawes, Zohra Dawood,

Eleni Z. Gabre-Madhin, Neville Gabriel, John Githongo, Anglique Kidjo,

Warren Krafchik, Acha Leke, Dr. Xiaoyun Li, Jon Lomy, Bunmi Makinwa,

Susan Mashibe, Dr. Richard Mkandawire, Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane,

Ory Okolloh, Arunma Oteh, Rakesh R. Rajani, Mandla Sibeko, John Ulanga and

Russell Wildeman. We are grateful to ONEs friend and advisor Bob Geldof and our

distinguished International Patron, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, for their support

and guidance.

We are fortunate to have received comments and feedback on previous drafts of this

report from many partners in the NGO community and government. They have all

strengthened this report, and any remaining errors are our sole responsibility. We are

grateful to be able to draw on this strong group of stakeholders as well as many other

friends and colleagues around the world who have advised ONE on this report and in

all that we do. The statisticians at the OECDs Development Assistance Committee

provided the data which made this report possible. Thanks go to our faithful

copy-editor, David Wilson. The reports design and art direction were guided by the

talents of Christopher Mattox from Creative Circle and ONE staff members

Elizabeth Brady and Carolyn Williams.

The following ONE staff and consultants contributed significantly to the production

of this report: Guillaume Grosso, Tamira Gunzburg, Tom Hart, Jay Heimbach,

Erin Hohlfelder, David Hong, Andreas Huebers, Tobias Kahler, Katri Kemppainen-Bertram,

Molly Kinder, Joseph Kraus, Adrian Lovett, Dr. Sipho Moyo, Nachilala Nkombo,

Larry Nowels, Lauren Pfeifer, Friederike Rder, Kerezhi Sebany, Johanna Stratmann

and Eloise Todd.

The management, editing and production of this report were led by Sara Harcourt

and Caitlyn Mitchell; the writing was led by Ben Leo and data analysis was led by

Catherine Blampied.

To the millions of people who work and campaign tirelessly every day to make poverty

history in Africa, thank you. The perseverance and commitment of those working both

inside and outside governments are truly inspiring.

ERRORS AND OMISSIONS

This report went to print on 21 May 2013. The information in this report was, to the best of ourknowledge, current up until 21 May 2013. We acknowledge that events that occurred after this

point may mean that some of the figures and commitments in this report are out of date.

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4 Foreword

FOreWOrD

he world has changed dramatically in the 13 short years since leaders

around the globe universally agreed on the Millennium Development Goals

(MDGs). In 2000, countless developing countries were labouring underdebilitating debt burdens, sluggish economic growth, underinvestment in

social services and physical infrastructure, and acute vulnerability to

external shocks. Like many of my counterparts around the world, as Minister of

Finance at that time I was struggling to address these headwinds, in helping to

rebuild a Rwandan economy that had been devastated by destructive conflict,

regional instability and poor government policies. At the same time, growth was

strong and rebounding in developed nations. Given the vast and seemingly growing

differences, international attention focused on ensuring that more countries and

their citizens benefited from the rapidly expanding reaches of globalisation. There

was an acute sense that globalisation also required global action to address the

widening gaps between the developing and developed worlds; collective action to

address conclusively the worlds injustices, which if not confronted would consume

the 21st century. The issues which weighed upon our minds included unacceptably

high levels of extreme poverty, the growing scourge of HIV/AIDS and other infectious

diseases, widespread lack of access to education and basic social services, and the

lack of economic opportunities for millions of poor people around the world.

Today, much of the developing world is surging, even as wealthier economies

continue to recover from the global financial crisis. It is an era of results, promise and

hope for the developing world. This dynamic is being felt across the African continent.

Nearly all African countries are experiencing robust growth and many are

demonstrating tremendous progress towards reaching the high bar of the MDGs. As

a region, sub-Saharan Africa has already made more than 40% of the progress

required to reach the MDG targets for gender parity in education, child mortality,

maternal mortality and access to safe water, ahead of the 2015 deadline. Progress likethis has not been limited to the African continent every region has made real

progress towards the MDGs.

Yet that progress remains uneven, and the job is not finished. In many countries, the

growth dividend has not reached the bottom of the pyramid. Inequality remains

widespread, and in some nations it continues to grow. An entire category of countries the fragile states risk being left behind entirely. And despite numerous bright

spots, sub-Saharan Africa continues to lag overall compared with other regions.

Over the coming two-and-a-half years, we must redouble our collective efforts to

accelerate the pace of progress and ensure that the fruits of our labour are systemic

and sustainable. This is a global responsibility, and all must play their part. In order to

convert strong economic growth into concrete and widespread human progress,

African governments must be accountable for their own political commitments on

health, education and agriculture. They must also deliver on their ambitious vision for

an economically integrated continent connected through trade, investment and

cross-border infrastructure. While Africas domestic resources were more modest 13

years ago, today they have grown over four-fold and are the most important source of

financing in the fight against extreme poverty, preventable disease and economic

opportunity on the continent. As this year s DATA Report illustrates, African

government expenditures now account for nearly 80% of all development resources

on the continent. Ensuring that Africas own commitments are met through targeted,

effective and accountable programmes will be essential to accelerating this struggle

for human dignity and opportunity.

Developed countries have a responsibility as well. Now is not the time for donors to

turn in on themselves, despite pressing challenges at home. While the developing

world stands on firmer ground than it did 13 years ago, the need for smart and

effective development assistance remains acute. Progress remains fragile in much of

the world. Investments must not only be safeguarded and expanded: they must

become irreversible. This includes focusing donors precious resources on effectiveinterventions and key areas where progress is either achievable or stalled. To this end,

2013 is a crucial year to replenish the multilateral institutions that leverage global

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resources and invest in growth-enhancing and life-saving programmes. The African

Development Fund which provides grants and highly concessional loans to Africas

poorest nations will be soliciting contributions that will be invested strategically intransformative infrastructure, regional integration and private sector development

projects. These smart investments will help create jobs and provide growth

opportunities to position countries to achieve all of their development goals. Other

critical multilateral replenishments this year include those for the Global Fund to Fight

AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria focused on making progress against several of the

health MDGs and the World Banks International Development Association. All of

these institutions should be strongly supported.

Finally, both developing and developed countries can, and must, do more to increase

transparency on spending and to build capacity to track results. I am optimistic that

the latest agreement by six of the worlds largest international financial institutions

(including the African Development Bank) to strengthen statistical capacity in

member countries and to share data and monitoring of development outcomes willlead to more effective programmes and policies. This is just the start. More must be

done to ensure that every naira, peso, kwacha, rupee, shilling, dollar, euro or pound is

used where it is most needed, and that it delivers results for those whom we seek to

serve the worlds poorest citizens. This DATA Report makes a number of

recommendations, which merit active consideration by policy-makers across the

globe. I warmly commend it.

With sustained momentum and concerted effort, 2015 can be a turning point, not an

end point. And the next 1,000 days will determine whether Africa and other developing

regions will be ready to embark on the next set of challenges, in the post-MDG world.

Dr. Donald Kaberuka

President

African Development Bank Group

Groupe de la Banque Africaine de Dveloppement

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A youg woma fth wat at a

bohol th vllag of Blyag,

a Juba, south suda.

Photo: A Hol/Wold Ba

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eXecUTiVe sUMMArY

he Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have rallied the international

community around a common fight and have mobilised a significant

body of resources, expertise and focus to help achieve their aim. In 2013the world is nearing the finish line and, with less than 1,000 days to go,

the stakes are high.

Despite sluggish growth in much of the world, emerging economies have led a

global recovery, and many sub-Saharan African countries have proved particularly

resilient, with growth rates averaging 5% over the past seven years. This continued

growth in the developing world, coupled with increased development assistance

over the past decade from donor countries, has delivered dramatic progress on a

number of fronts. Overall, the number of people living in extreme poverty declined

from 43% of the worlds population in 1990 to 21% in 2010. Should this progress

continue and expand to lagging regions and countries, the possibility of virtually

ending extreme poverty in the next few decades could be a reality. Compared with

2000, the annual number of child deaths has decreased by 2.7 million (from 9.6

million per year), and malaria deaths have fallen by more than a quarter. The

numbers of lives saved are truly astonishing.

In addition to halving extreme poverty, two other MDGs have already been met

globally improving access to clean water and achieving gender equality in primary

education. But these global averages disguise vast disparities between different

countries, regions and MDG indicators. Sub-Saharan Africa as a region is lagging

furthest behind on the majority of the MDGs, but individual countries are making

great strides. To support those countries that are showing progress but are short ofthe goal, collectively we must pick up the pace and increase momentum to get the

job done. The world cannot lose sight of current targets in our rush to create new

ones. A strong surge to achieve the 2015 goals will build the momentum needed to

sustain progress through the next development framework between 2016 and

2030, and ensure the virtual elimination of extreme poverty.

Further progress will require sustaining or increasing resources for development

from all sources. Development assistance from donors remains critical, but

developing countries own resources dwarf aid resources in many cases, and the

domestic political decisions that governments make about how to channel these

resources have the biggest effect on development outcomes.

ONEs 2013 DATA Report, Financing the Fight for Africas Transformation, examines

the recent progress of individual countries against eight core MDG targets,

particularly in sub-Saharan African countries, using the MDG Progress Index

originally developed by the Center for Global Development. 1 The report then

compares country progress on the MDGs against both African domestic

government spending and external donor financing in the health, agriculture and

education sectors.

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Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators and ONE calculations

Note: Total number of examined countries is 134. There are no partially on track countries for HIV/AIDS because there is no examined trajectory as for the othergoals: countries are either on track (if the prevalence rate has been held steady or decreased) or off track (if the prevalence rate has increased).

MDGtarGets

NUMber of coUNtries

half of all coUNtries 134

POVERTY

HUNGER

EDUCATION

GENDER

CHILD MORTALITY

MATERNAL MORTALITY

HIV/AIDS

WATER

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

On Track No DataPa rti al ly On Trac k O ff Tra ck

8 executive summary

keY FinDinGs

1 MDG progress continues to be strong overall.

fiGUre 1: 2013 MDG Pg ind, y MDG ind

ONEs analysis in the 2013 MDG Progress Index shows that, since 2010, 49 poor

countries have improved their overall MDG scores, 17 have declined and ten have

stayed the same. All in all, this demonstrates a positive trajectory for the majority ofcountries. The number of MDG trailblazers (those countries with a Progress Index

score of at least 5) is 45, ten of which are in sub-Saharan Africa. This is almost twice

the number of trailblazer countries from just two years ago. Furthermore, the gap

between poor and middle-income countries progress towards the MDGs continues

to narrow. Poor countries average scores are now nearly identical to those of middle-

income countries. Figure 1 shows that on five of the eight MDG targets measured inthis report, more than half of countries are either on track or partially on track to

meet these goals.

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Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators and ONE calculations

Note: ONE did not examine every single sub-Saharan African country due to

insufficient data. Countries excluded from this analysis are: Equatorial Guinea,Somalia and South Sudan. MDG Progress Index indicator coverage is not completein all cases due to the unavailability of data. In light of these data limitations,caution should be taken when considering these findings. Countries with reduceddata availability, and hence lower indicator coverage, are more likely to score lowerbecause they cannot achieve a score of 0.5 or 1 on these MDGs, hence thesemissing data points are effectively counted as zero.

Mali

Rwanda

Ethiopia

Ghana

Malawi

Uganda

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cape VerdeGambia

Niger

So Tom and Prncipe

Guinea

Mauritania

Senegal

Cameroon

Comoros

Djibouti

Liberia

Mozambique

Namibia

Togo

Zambia

Guinea-Bissau

MadagascarNigeria

Seychelles

South Africa

Angola

Central African Republic

Eritrea

Sierra Leone

Tanzania

Botswana

Cte dIvoire

Kenya

Lesotho

Mauritius

Swaziland

Burundi

Chad

GabonSudan

Congo, Republic of

Congo, DRC

Zimbabwe

MDG ProGress score

0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

Trailblazer Laggard


2MDG progress is uneven acrosscountries, and too often growth isnot inclusive.

Sub-Saharan African countries are showing excellent

progress on average, among them top performers such

as Rwanda, Ethiopia, Malawi, Ghana, Uganda, Beninand Burkina Faso. But while the number of MDG

trailblazers has increased, 14 poor countries (nine of

which are in sub-Saharan Africa) are lagging behind

and have shown little improvement over time, or in

some cases have declined. This year, the Democratic

Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zimbabwe stand out as

the worst-performing countries, with MDG Progress

Index scores of only 0.5. More worrying still, the vast

majority of laggards scores have remained the same

or have actually declined since 2010, with the exception

of Burundi and Cte dIvoire, which have shown some

moderate progress. Figure 2 shows the vast range of

rates of progress across sub-Saharan African

countries. There remains a worrying trend that

economic growth is not as correlated with poverty

reduction as it could be, raising questions about the

inclusivity of growth as well.

fgu 2: 2013 MDG Pg ind s, su-sn an cun

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10 executive summary

3 Resources for development in Africa have dramatically increased since 2000.

4 However, resources are far short of promised levels if financing commitmentswere kept, the results could be truly transformational.The majority of sub-Saharan African countries have not met their financing

commitments to health, agriculture or education. These commitments were

made in the African Union or other multilateral contexts and governments

committed to spend a certain percentage of their expenditures or GDP on health

(Abuja commitments), agriculture (Maputo commitments) and education (Dakar

commitments). Donor progress on commitments to give half of all ODA increases to

Africa, per the EUs commitment to achieve 0.7% ODA/GNI by 2015, is broadly off

track as well.

Some African countries are further behind than others, however, and the amount of

resources that are currently not being mobilised for these sectors could be life-

changing for millions of people. For instance, if Nigeria were to meet its health

spending commitment each year from 2013 to 2015, the total projected additional

resources ($22.5 billion), if invested in effective health programmes, could provide

anti-malarial bednets to every single citizen, fully vaccinate every young child against

deadly childhood diseases (such as pneumonia, rotavirus, diphtheria and whooping

cough) and provide antiretroviral treatment to every single person who is HIV-positive

in Nigeria. The malaria intervention alone could save the lives of almost half a million

children over time. If Angola were to meet its education spending commitment each

year from 2013 to 2015, just a fraction of the total projected additional resources

($21.6 billion) could ensure that every single child was enrolled in primary school.

Altogether, if sub-Saharan African countries met their spending commitments on

health (Abuja commitments), there would be an additional $68 billion availablebetween 2013 and 2015.

If sub-Saharan African countries met their spending commitments on agriculture

(Maputo commitments), there would be an additional $40 billion available between

2013 and 2015.

And if sub-Saharan African countries met their spending commitments on

education (Dakar commitments), there would be an additional $135 billion available

between 2013 and 2015.

In total, there could be an additional $243 billion available between 2013 and 2015

for these three sectors if sub-Saharan African governments kept all their promises.

In the past 12 years, expenditures by sub-Saharan African governments have

quadrupled and now account for 78% of total resource availability; see Figure 3.

In that same time, official development assistance (ODA) to the region has also

increased significantly. However, aid flows from major donors (the DAC countries) to

sub-Saharan Africa have dipped over the past two years, with a 6% decline between2011 and 2012.

Domestic expenditures increased from $84 billion in 2000 to $363 billion in 2011.

Over that same period, ODA to sub-Saharan Africa increased from $11.7 billion in

2000 to $41.8 billion in 2011, although it has declined from 2011 to 2012.

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84

11.7

2.3

6.313

2.3

14.4

15.7

2.6

10.8

18.1

2.9

1321.8

4.8

10.1 23.6

17.3

18.1

25.2

20.2

13.6 31.0

22.1

27.237.6

24.3

36.4

39.8

23.2

32.7

39.5

24.8

26.641.8

23.9

38.9

87 84

114

136156

182

220

273 265

314

363

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook Database; OECD DAC; World Bank World Development Indicators

Note: All data is measured in USD billions in current prices to compare all flows. African government expenditures are calculated by converting governmentexpenditure shares (measured as a percentage of GDP) into absolute expenditure estimates. ODA figures exclude debt relief. Remittances are defined asreceipts measured through the balance of payments method. FDI is defined as net inflows measured through the balance of payments method. Thefollowing countries are excluded due to lack of data for some flows: Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan.

U

sDbillioNs

2000

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

SSA Government Expenditures Foreign Direct InvestmentOfficial Development Assistance Remittances


fiGUre 3: su-sn a (ssa) ru fw, 2000-11

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6 Donor development assistance relates to better MDG outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa, but more shouldbe done to target assistance more effectively.This report finds a correlation between donor spending on sectoral priorities and

corresponding results on individual MDG targets. However, looking across total donor

spending per capita on all three sectors combined reveals a very weak correlation

with overall MDG progress. This relationship is much weaker than the previous

relationship between African domestic spending and overall MDG progress, raising

numerous questions that require further research. Although it is beyond the scope of

this report, future analysis may include looking more closely at the interaction

between donor spending and domestic spending. Within ONEs analysis, we find:

On average, sub-Saharan African countries that have received greater education

assistance over the past decade are also demonstrating better outcomes on the

education MDGs (primary completion and gender equality).

In health, sub-Saharan African countries that have received greater health

assistance per capita are demonstrating better outcomes on child mortality.

However, maternal mortality is showing the opposite relationship. This is not

necessarily surprising given that the majority of donor assistance over the past

decade has targeted other health priorities and maternal mortality challenges

often reflect broader health system obstacles that are harder to address through

vertical health interventions.

And finally, sub-Saharan African countries that have received greater agriculture

assistance flows, on average, are also demonstrating slightly better outcomes on

their extreme poverty and hunger MDGs. Agriculture spending, however, has been

notoriously neglected by donors, and increased commitment in this area, coupled

with improved country- and activity-level targeting, may lead to further progress.

5 There is a strong relationship between sub-Saharan African governments spending and MDG progress.

This report shows that, on average, sub-Saharan African countries that have allocated

a greater share of government expenditures to health, education and agriculture over

the past decade demonstrate improved MDG outcomes in those areas (see Figure 4).

In health, countries that are on track to achieve their child mortality reduction

targets are also those that are making greater progress towards their health(Abuja) spending targets (with an average deficit of only 21% between 2001 and

2010).2 This compares with an average health spending deficit of 42% for those

countries that are off track to meet their child mortality reduction targets.

In agriculture, countries that are currently on track to achieve their poverty targets

have an average agriculture (Maputo) spending deficit of 28%, whereas countries

that are currently off track have an average Maputo commitment spending deficit

of 61%. Similarly, countries that are currently on track to achieve their hunger

targets have an average Maputo spending deficit of 38%, whereas countries that

are off track have an average Maputo spending deficit of 49%.

In education, countries that are on track to achieve their primary education

completion rate targets by 2015 had an average education spending deficit

(towards their Dakar targets) of 32% between 2000 and 2010. This compares with

an average education spending deficit of 45% for those countries that are off

track to meet their primary education targets.

There is a robust positive correlation between sub-Saharan African countries

average social expenditures (combined health, education and agriculture

expenditure, as a share of their total expenditure over the past decade) and their MDG

Progress Index scores. Looking across all sectors, sub-Saharan countries that are

MDG trailblazers allocate an average of 39% of government spending to the above

three sectors, while those that are laggards allocate only 29%.

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Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, World Health Organisation, ReSAKSS, UNESCO, World Bank World Development Indicators and ONEcalculations

Note: Only 34 sub-Saharan African countries are examined here, due to limited data availability on health, agriculture and education expenditures. Since weare not examining the full period for agriculture (200309) and the figures used are estimates only, caution should be taken when interpreting these findings.

MDG ProGress iNDex score

socialexPeNDitUre(coMbiNeDhealth,

eDUcatioNaNDaGricUltUre)

as%o

ftotalexPeNDitUre

0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

r2=0.349


fiGUre 4: su-sn an Gvnmn emd avg spndng n h, edun nd aguu (cmnd)

Png t epndu (200010) y MDG Pg ind s

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FiVe keY sTePs FOr sPrinTinG THrOUGH THe2015 FinisH Line

In the last 1,000 days until the MDGs deadline, there is a need for developing countries,

donor countries and development institutions to instil a greater sense of urgency and

focus into their efforts. Promoting a war room mentality, and ensuring that the 2015

deadline remains firmly in the forefront, is about ensuring that the effective use ofbillions of public sector development finance dollars and saving millions of lives. Thus,

ONE makes the following five recommendations to both increase the quality and

effectiveness of financing and increase the quantity of resources available:

iMPrOVinG THe QUALiTY OF DeVeLOPMenT FinAnce

1 Invigorate monitoring mechanisms and focus onacceleration plans.The UN and the World Bank will be leading quarterly meetings with an action-oriented

agenda focused on: (1) tracking up-to-date MDG outcomes and trends and (2)

designing and executing plans to accelerate progress on specific goals and in specific

countries, over the next three years. These decision-making sessions will support the

UNDPs MDG Acceleration exercise, which seeks to identify areas where noteworthy

progress can be achieved. After each quarterly meeting, the organisations will publicly

issue detailed progress updates. Every development actor including both developing

and donor country governments should present clear MDG acceleration plans that

span the next 1,000 days and beyond. They should publicly declare how they are moving

beyond business as usual and stating how they will intensify efforts, with accountable

actions and resources attached.

2 Accelerate budget and aid transparency implementation.

In addition to countries scaling up resources for development, it is equally importantfor all actors to significantly scale up efforts that will increase the impact and

effectiveness of both existing and new resources. For most developing nations, this

means dramatically improving budget and expenditure transparency. At the same

time, all donors should accelerate their respective timelines for joining and complying

with the International Aid Transparency Initiative (IATI). It is equally important to have

transparent mandatory reporting measures in the extractives industry and better

revenue management authority to increase the tax base in developing countries.

3 Improve the quality of service delivery.

Donor and African governments should rapidly scale up the Service Delivery

Indicators (SDI) Initiative, which tracks expenditures along with service delivery quality

and performance in the education and health sectors. The SDI Initiative is an effective

instrument for identifying performance challenges, such as resource leakages and

gaps in teacher knowledge or effort, to ensure greater stakeholder accountability.

4 Fulfil funding commitments.

African governments need to meet their commitments to spending in health,

education and agriculture to ensure that they are prioritising the allocation of

resources towards the MDG target areas. Donor governments need to meet global

and Africa assistance targets to ensure a global partnership for development

progress, and they must strategically allocate resources to countries and sectors

with the greatest potential for demonstrable impacts and outcomes.

5 Support full multilateral replenishments.

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the African Development

Fund (ADF) and the World Banks International Development Association (IDA) will all

be soliciting multi-year financial pledges simultaneously from donor governments in

2013. All three organisations play a central role in supporting the MDGs especially in

Africa and it is essential that they are financed to the greatest extent possible.

increAsinG THe QUAnTiTY OF DeVeLOPMenT FinAnce

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Youth Bug La Mwaah th

kba lum naob o of

thouad of kya vl oty

ogaato that hav tablhd

a v duato pogamm

fo mmb.

Photo: rado Gagal/UsAiD

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eduato pogamm a bgg

pmay duato to vulabl ad

oflt-afftd hld Ugada.

Photo: UsAiD

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inTrODUcTiOn

he Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) deadline is now less than 1,000

days away. The world has officially entered the final leg of its 15-year journey

to halve extreme poverty and reduce child mortality by two-thirds, reversethe tide against HIV/AIDS and malaria and ensure that more people have

access to basic services, such as primary education and safe drinking water.

Despite a challenging global environment, many poor and middle-income countries

are making dramatic progress towards the highly ambitious MDG targets. Across

some countries and some targets, this progress has been faster than at any time in

the past 30 years. On the other hand, the performance of a number of countries

continues to lag. Some of these laggards are sufficiently large such as Nigeria and

the Democratic Republic of Congo that they are holding back regional rates of

progress. While the international community is surveying, consulting and debating

what the successor targets to the MDGs should look like, there is a fear that the

worlds attention may shift from the urgent task currently at hand. There is real

jeopardy in the current environment that the great progress made against extreme

poverty so far may be slowed, or even reversed. Developing countries, donor countries

and international partners therefore need to re-double their efforts to ensure that the

world flies past the current finish line, before embarking on an even more ambitious

agenda to push towards the end of extreme poverty from 2016 through to 2030.

To help ensure that the world accelerates progress over the next two-and-a-half years,

ONEs 2013 DATA Report, Financing the Fight for Africas Transformation, focuses on

development finance flows from the public sector which help the fight against

extreme poverty. For the first time, the DATA Report provides a robust assessment of

sub-Saharan African government spending towards sectoral commitments, alongside

traditional donor development assistance. Although this analysis does not look at all of

the resources available for development (such as foreign direct investment,remittances from the diaspora or private financing), it does focus on those resources

that governments (African and donor) have control over and can, and should, allocate

effectively to meet targets. To this end, the report makes three specific contributions.

First, it provides an updated assessment of country-level progress on the MDGs,

using recent data from the World Bank and other sources to analyse MDG

performance across all developing countries, and updating the MDG Progress Index

originally developed by the Center for Global Development. 1 This analysis identifies

where progress is robust, where it is at a tipping point and where it is lagging. We hope

that this will help governments and development organisations prioritise where toallocate scarce resources between now and 2015.

Second, the report focuses specifically on the domestic and donor financing picture

in sub-Saharan Africa for health, education and agriculture. Collectively, these three

sectors account for all but one of the core MDGs (i.e. safe drinking water). We track

African governments performance towards meeting their own MDG-related spending

commitments, which covers all three of these sectors. We also look at the effects of

donor spending on these sectors.

Third, this report contains a number of concrete proposals, which are intended to help

accelerate progress over the next two-and-a-half years and beyond, highlighting

those drivers that could be implemented relatively quickly and without significant

cost. We hope that this report will embolden all parties to re-double their efforts

between now and 2015 to continue, or perhaps even further accelerate, the

remarkable trends that we have seen. The report illustrates the importance of working

overtime to remove binding obstacles to progress, such as insecurity, inequality,

under-investment and poor governance, over the next few years and beyond.

The DATA Report is, and always has been, a tool for accountability holding leaders to

account for promises made, and using cold, hard data to show progress, or lack

thereof. There have been many iterations of the DATA Report over the past eight

years, but one trend that has held constant is the unwavering importance of up-to-

date, accurate statistics for monitoring progress and informing decision-making

and, alongside this, the incredible difficulty involved in securing such statistics,

especially in sub-Saharan Africa. This report acknowledges the gaps and caveats thatexist for much of the data and supports calls for greater statistical capacity-building

in poor countries. ONE is calling for a transparency revolution and a data revolution to

help ensure that statistics can be placed in the hands of citizens and public servants,

to help them drive progress. We are inspired by those organisations and initiatives

that are working to improve the measurement and monitoring of development

progress so that all citizens can hold governments to account and demand better in

the future.

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18 Part ONe: MDG PrOGress INDex

Walvi Ba on th Atlantic Ocan

i th main pot in Namibia and hom

to man fihing compani. Fihing i

on of th main contibuto to th

Namibian conom.

Photo: John Hogg/Wold Bank

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MDG PrOGress INDex

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MDG PrOGress INDex

h bn mo hn 12 inc h wold

dopd h Unid Nion Millnnium Dclion,

nd wih wo-nd--hlf o h ddlin, hk hv nv bn high. How dvloping

couni fing on h highl mbiiou Millnnium

Dvlopmn Gol (MDG) g? How h

pfomnc chngd ov h p fw co

couni nd g? a h couni o g

h hv chd ipping poin? a h g on

which lil o no pog h bn md co h

mjoi of couni? th ll impon

conidion fo polic-mk nd pciion,

picull whn llocing cc ouc ov h

n fw , nd bond.

thi cion mp o nw h uion

b dploing h MDG Pog Ind mhodolog.1

th Ind lloc couni co ling o hi

pog owd igh co MDG g, wih co

of 8.0 pning on ck pog o m ll

g.2 Couni h pill on ck on

g civ co of 0.5, h hn 1, nd

couni h off ck civ co of 0. Uing

nwl vilbl d, hi cion oulin up dd

nd in how individul couni fing, wih

pcil focu on h poo couni. 3 Poo d

uli, howv, min iou chllng;

widpd d viion nd gp coninu o poignificn chllng fo muing dvloping

couni pog on conin bi co h

viou indico. Fo mo infomion bou h

MDG Pog Ind coing nd h iu of d

vilbili, pl h mhodolog cion h

nd of hi po.

Key MDG PrOGress FINDINGs

Progress Continues to be strong

sinc 2011, h numb of dvloping couni wih n

MDG Pog Ind co of 5.0 o mo ohwi

known MDG ilblz h jumpd fom 27 o

45.4 Of h, 26 clifid poo couni nd

n locd in ub-shn afic. Ovll h

Mldiv h diplcd Cmbodi h op-

pfoming coun nd i on ck o chiv ll of

h co MDG g. Boh Cmbodi nd si Lnk

hv co of 7.0; howv, Cmbodi co h

doppd fom 8.0 l , wh si Lnk co

o fom 6.0. Bd on obvd jcoi, nl

ll of h 45 MDG ilblz would chiv l

hlf of h mind MDG g.5

among poo couni, fou couni joind h MDG

ilblz nk hi (Bngldh, Bnin, Bolivi nd

Gmbi).6 two couni doppd off h li (Gogi nd

smo) du o dclin in hi pfomnc.

sub-shn aficn couni howing clln

pog on vg. th op n pfom in 2013

Mli7 nd rwnd (coing 6.0), ehiopi, Mlwi,

Ghn nd Ugnd (coing 5.5) nd Bnin, Bukin

Fo, Cp Vd nd Gmbi (coing 5.0). a lgmjoi of ub-shn aficn couni (30 of 46)

hv impovd hi co inc h 2010 I nd.

svl couni hv md dmic lp fowd,

coing wo o mo poin high in 2013 hn in 2010.

th includ rwnd, Guin-Biu, Bnin, Nig,

Mli, so tom nd Pncip nd Libi.

GAUGING DeVeLOPING COUNTry

PerFOrMANCe MDG PrOGress INDex

The MillenniuM DevelopMenT Goals

souc: UNDP Bzil

20

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0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

MDG proGress inDex score

Mldiv

Cmbodi

si Lnk

Hondu

Bhun

Bolivi

Indi

Lo

Mli

Mongoli

Npl

Nicgu

rwnd

Vinm

amniehiopi

Ghn

Mlwi

Pkin

Ugnd

Bngldh

Bnin

Bukin Fo

Cp Vd

Gmbi

timo-L

2013 2010


FiGure 1: MDG pg id Tz (2013 d 2010), p ct

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souc: Wold Bnk, Wold Dvlopmn Indico nd ONe clculion

No: th covg of MDG Pog Ind indico i no compl du o unvilbili of d; wh d i miing fo n indico, coun ffcivlciv co of zo fo h indico. Lck of d i picull mkd fo h Dmocic rpublic of Congo (which h onl fiv indico covd),s. Vin cn nd h Gndin (which h onl fiv indic o covd) nd tong (which h onl fou indico covd). In ligh of h d limiion,cuion hould b kn whn coniding h finding.

C d'Ivoi

Kn

LohoBuundi

Chd

s. Luci

s. Vincn & h Gndin

sudn

tong

Congo, rpublic of

Ppu Nw Guin

Uzbkin

Congo, DrCZimbbw

MDG proGress inDex score2013 2010

0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

22 MDG ProGress InDex

on AverAge, Countries Are imProving

their sCores

Ovll mong poo couni, h MDG Pog

Ind co of 49 couni hv impovd ov h

p h , ho of 17 couni hv dclind

nd n hv mind unchngd.8 thi illu

gnl nd of ccld pog, lbi wih

mining pock of lgging pfomnc. sinc

2010, 16 couni co hv incd b l

2.0. th couni includ afghnin, Bngldh,

Bnin, Bhun, Boni-Hzgovin, Guin-Biu,

Hii, Libi, h Mldiv, Mli, Nig, Pkin,

rwnd, so tom nd Pncip, si Lnk nd

timo-L. In h oh dicion, h Kgz

rpublic h pincd h wo dclin, i co

dcing b 2.0 inc 2010. anoh i couni

hv hown dc of 1.5: Kiibi, Loho,

s. Vincn nd h Gndin, tong, h rpublic

of Congo nd Uzbkin.

in A smAll grouP of Countries, Progress is

stAlled, or getting Worse

Ou of ol of 134 couni d, 25

clifid MDG lggd du o poo o dclining

pfomnc ( co of 2.0 o l). Foun of h

lggd poo couni nd 11 middl-incom

couni. among poo couni, hi h

FiGure 2: MDG pg id lggd (2013 d 2010), p ct

Dmocic rpublic of Congo (DrC) nd Zimb bw

nd ou h wo-pfoming couni, wih

MDG Pog Ind co of onl 0.5; Figu 2.

th rpublic of Congo, Ppu Nw Gui n nd

Uzbkin onl ju hd wih co of 1.0.

Bd on hi obvd jcoi, onl on coun

fom hi goup will chiv ingl co MDG g

(h rpublic of Congo i on ck o m i HIV/

aIDs g). Mo woing ill, h v mjoi of

h lggd co hv mind h m o hv

cull dclind inc 2010, wih h cpion of

Buundi nd C dIvoi, which howd om

mod pog.

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two couni nobl fo cping h lggd

goup inc l Ind: h Cnl aficn

rpublic, who co impovd fom 1.0 o 2.5, nd

Guin-Biu, who co impovd fom 0.5 o 3.0.

On h oh hnd, wo couni nd h li of

MDG lggd (s. Luci nd sudn), du o dclining

pfomnc. No upiingl, h li of MDG

lggd coninu o coni minl of po-conflic

couni o fgil . Moov, h mjoi of

h lggd ill locd in ub-shn afic

(nin ou of 14).

Poor Countries Are Closing the gAP With

middle-inCome Countries

th gp bwn h pog of poo couni nd

middl-incom couni (MIC) owd h MDG

coninu o now. Poo couni vg co

now nl idnicl o ho of MIC (3.88 vu 3.96).

th pfomnc of MIC dclind ov h p ,

wih h vg co dcing fom 4.07 o 3.96.9

In m of individul couni, h now 19

middl-incom MDG ilblz of which vn

locd in Lin amic nd fiv in e ai nd h

Pcific. No ingl MIC cn mch h high co

mong h poo couni. among h middl-incom

couni, fiv now id fo b pfomnc wih

co of 6.5 Bzil, egp, Indoni, Pnm nd

tuk. Bulgi, Pnm, Indoni, tuk nd

Uugu hv hibid h mo dmic

impovmn inc 2010, whil algi, Muiiu nd

Jodn hv pincd h wo dclin. Chin

Ind co mind conn 6.0 fo h hid in ow.10

Ovll, poo couni pfom b, on vg, on

fou of h co MDG indico m pov,

hung, mnl moli nd HIV/aIDs lhough

h ul m b divn p ill b h Ind

lin mhodolog, MIC wih high dvlopmn

indico blin m find i mo difficul o col

FiGure 3: hgt d lwt pfm (201013), Mdd-im ct

MDG proGress inDex score

2013 2012 2011 2010

CHANGe

(201013)

Trailblazers

Bazil 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 0.0

egpt 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.0 0.5

Indonia 6.5 6.0 4.5 4.0 2.5

Panama 6.5 5.0 5.0 3.5 3.0

Tuk 6.5 6.5 3.5 4.0 2.5

China * 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 -1.0

ecuado 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.0 -1.0

Ian 6.0 5.5 5.0 6.0 0.0

Pu 6.0 7.5 5.0 5.5 0.5

Tuniia 6.0 6.0 5.5 7.0 -1.0

Chil 5.5 4.5 5.0 5.5 0.0

Fiji 5.5 6.5 3.5 3.5 2.0

Malaia 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.5 1.0

Mico 5.5 6.5 6.5 4.5 1.0

Philippin 5.5 6.0 5.0 5.0 0.5

Bulgaia 5.0 5.0 1.0 0.5 4.5el salvado 5.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 0.0

Thailand * 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 1.0

Uugua 5.0 4.0 4.5 2.5 2.5

laGGarDs

Albania * 2.0 2.0 4.5 3.5 -1.5

Botwana * 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.5 -1.5

Mauitiu * 2.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 -2.0

Miconia * 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 -1.0

Palau * 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0

st. Kitt and Nvi * 2.0 3.0 1.5 1.5 0.5

swaziland 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0

Ukain 2.0 3.5 1.5 1.0 1.0

Gabon * 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.5Jamaica 1.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 -1.0

Iaq * 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 -1.5


No: th covg of MDG Pog Ind indico i no compl in ll c du o unvilbili of d. Couni wih miing d poin ffcivl co zoon ho indico. In ligh of h d limiion, cuion hould b kn whn coniding h finding. aik indic h d i unvilbl fo on omo indico. ONe h lo clculd djud MDG co, which ppl h vg co fo h indico wh h i vilbl d o whol of ighindico. svn of h 11 middl-incom lggd hv high djud co hn cul co. si of h couni would no long b cld lggdccoding o hi djud co: albni (2.3 oppod o 2.0), Bown (2.3 oppod o 2.0), Muiiu (2.3 oppod o 2.0), h Fdd s ofMiconi (4.0 oppod o 2.0), Plu (4.0 oppod o 2.0) nd s. Ki nd Nvi (3.2 oppod o 2.0). th of h couni djud co do no chnghi nding.

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1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0


No: D covg i no compl, hfo fo ch indico om couni miing co. th miing co cludd fom hi nli ofvg, h hn bing cound zo.

extreMe

POVerty

HUNGer eDUCatION GeNDer

eqUaLIty

CHILD

MOrtaLIty

MaterNaL

MOrtaLIty

HIV/aIDs Water

averaGeproGressinDicaTor

score

2010 2011 2012 2013

24 MDG ProGress InDex

FiGure 4: MDG pg id, ag pfm y idt ( 201013), p ct

o chiv h uid ducion mong h

mining populion. Convl, MIC coninu o

ignificnl oupfom poo couni on h MDG

indico h hv bolu g (ducion nd

gnd uli) lgl du o hi nod high

ing poin.11

Progress is WidesPreAd ACross tArgets

Poo couni hv impovd, on vg, on i co

MDG g indico inc 2010 m pov,

hung, child moli, mnl moli, HIV/aIDs

nd w. Mo pcificll, h hv dmond

h mo ignificn impovmn on h mnl

moli, child moli nd w g wih

vg co incing b 0.19, 0.15 nd 0.14

pcivl. avg co hv dclind fo wo co

MDG indico (ducion nd gnd uli).

Howv, ducion nd gnd uli d min

ui volil on -o- bi. a ul, i i

difficul o dw conc concluion bou

fundmnl pfomnc nd hi im.

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OFF traCK

(HIGHer PreVaLeNCe)

ON traCK

(UNCHaNGeD PreVaLeNCe)

ON traCK

(LOWer PreVaLeNCe)


33

11

2

79

26

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1990 2000

nuM

ber

oFssa

counTries


FiGure 5: hiv/aiDs Tgt pfm, adg t 1990 d att 2000 b s

aco ll dvloping couni, ho g wih h

g numb of couni on ck fo chiving

hm (in od ing wih h high) w, child

moli, gnd uli nd pov. tho g

wih h fw numb of couni on ck (in

od ing wih h low) mnl moli,

HIV/aIDs nd hung. Howv, hi mu of pog

on HIV/aIDs uing h 1990 blin i milding, givn

h pid dclin in h 1990 nd ubun

impovmn, pcill ov h p dcd.

hiv/Aids AlternAtive bAseline

Whil h MDG hv numb of mhodologicl

hocoming, h blin of 1990 i picull

poblmic fo muing couni pfomnc on

h HIV/aIDs g. I ld o mimch of iming

bwn HIV/aIDs pvlnc nd nd h

globl pon o h pidmic. Pu diffnl, h

pog of mn couni in m of hling nd

hn ving h aIDs pidmic duing h 2000 i

mkd b h ploion in pvlnc duing h

1990 (i.. bfo h Millnnium Dclion w

dopd).

Conin wih h foml MDG cking mhodolog,

h MDG Pog Ind u h 1990 blin fo

muing pog in hling HIV/aIDs. Howv, in

od o gug pfomnc on h HIV/aIDs g

mo fil nd ccul, ONe h undkn

ddiionl nli ju fo ub-shn aficn

couni, dploing n lniv blin of 2000.

Uing hi ppoch, h picu fo h pfomnc of

ub-shn aficn couni i mkbl diffn.

Bwn 2000 nd 2013, 31 couni ducd hi

HIV/aIDs pvlnc (o hld hm conn)

which, infomll, would indic 'on ck'

pfomnc.12 Compd wih h Ind, which u

h 1990 blin, hi i mio oppoi wih 31

couni clifid 'off ck' o hl h id of

HIV/aIDs.

In m of indico-wid nd, ub-shn afic

vg co on h HIV/aIDs g would b 0.74

(wih 2000 blin), oppod o i vg MDG

Pog Ind co of 0.26. thi illu h

dmic pog chivd ov h p dcd

hough vidnc-bd invmn b aficn nd

dono govnmn lik.

a doco pin in clinic in Mukono, Ugnd.

Innionl Dvlopmn aociion (IDa) uppo h

conibud o impovd hlh fo Ugndn wih gd

uppo o h hlh co. Ugnd h piond 'ciiznpo cd' in hlh c h communi lvl.

Phoo: an Hol/Wold Bnk

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Cildr i Madaascar ar

procd from malaria w

y slp udr a bd.

Poo: USAID

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27The 2013 DaTa RepoRT

FInAnCIng the FIght

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28 financing the fight

ltug rgrss n t Millnnium

Dvlmnt Gls (MDGs) is

imrving in numrus dvling

cuntris, tr is still muc t b dn

t mt t mbitius trgts. In tis

sctin, w sift frm glbl mintin f MDG

rfrmnc t lk scificll t finncing trnds in

sub-Srn afric. acclrting nd rinfrcing t

rgrss f sub-Srn africn cuntris ginst

t mbitius MDG trgts will invribl ruir mr

trgtd, fficint nd ffctiv ublic nd rivt

sctr invstmnts. ovr t nt tw-nd--lf

rs, ll rtis suld sk t mimis t

vilbilit f dmstic nd trnl rsurcs t

cut ts invstmnts, wit rticulr msis

n scling u lif-cnging rgrmms, suc scild immunistin nd t distributin f aIDS

mdicins. altug sm f ts ctivitis will b

dlivrd trug t ublic sctr nd trs will b

dlivrd trug rivt ctrs, bt will l n

ssntil rl in ling cuntris srint t t MDG

finis lin. at t sm tim, ll stkldrs must

sk t mimis t ffctivnss f rsurcs

lrd vilbl fr dvlmnt. Tis includs

srcing fr nd finding fficinc gins, riritising

igr-imct intrvntins nd imrving t

cllctin f inut, utut nd utcm dt.

Wil cknwldging t mrid surcs fr

dvlmnt finncing, tis rrt fcuss n trcking

ublic sctr rsurcs, rimril du t t vilbilit

f dt. First, gvrnmnt nditur nd fficil

dvlmnt ssistnc (oDa) dt is vilbl fr

nrl vr sub-Srn africn gvrnmnt vr t

st dcd. Scnd, ts invstmnts cn b

trckd n sctr-lvl bsis, wic llws fr t

lrtin f tntil rltinsis wit cuntris

rfrmnc ginst t MDG trgts. at t sm

tim, oNe rcgniss tt tr ts f rsurcs

cntribut significntl t dvlmnt utcms,

including mjr flws suc s rmittncs nd frign

dirct invstmnt (FDI). Rmittncs l finnc

incrsd usld invstmnts in lt nd

ductin srvics nd in businss strt-us, s wll

s imrvd nutritin utcms.1 Frign invstmnt

cn l t rmt cnmic grwt, mlmntrtunitis nd incrsd t rcits. all f ts

rsults v itr dirct r n indirct imct n

brdr dvlmnt utcms.

ovrll, rsurc flws witin, r cnnlld t,

sub-Srn africn cuntris v ldd vr t

st dcd. In 2000, dmstic nd dnr gvrnmnt

nditurs nd rivt rsurc flws ttlld

rimtl $105 billin. B 2011, t d grwn

mr tn fur-fld, rcing n stimtd $468

billin. T IMF rjcts tt dmstic nd rivt

rsurc vilbilit will cntinu t nd t fstc vr t cming rs, fulld b rbust

cnmic grwt nd grwing rivt sctr intrst.

Sub-Srn africn gvrnmnt nditurs

ccuntd fr rimtl 78% f ttl rsurc

vilbilit in 2011. Tis ws fllwd b oDa (9%), FDI

(8%) nd rmittncs (5%). Intrstingl, oDas sr f

vrll rsurc vilbilit s dclind sligtl vr

t st dcd (frm 11% in 2000) dsit nrl

fur-fld incrs in vlums, indicting tt tr

rsurcs r incrsing t fstr rt.

In t fllwing gs, oNe nlss sub-Srn

africn nd dnr gvrnmnt nditur trnds in

t lt, gricultur nd ductin sctrs, wic

cvr t mjrit f t MDG trgt sctrs (ct fr

wtr nd snittin). Mrvr, w m ts

istricl invstmnts ginst cuntris currnt MDG

rfrmnc sttus. Wil tis nlsis ds nt iml cusl rltinsi r s, it ds ttmt t idntif

tntil crrltiv rltinsis btwn ublic

invstmnt lvls vr t st dcd nd currnt

MDG rgrss. W ls discuss t imrtnc f

fiscl trnsrnc in gvrnmnt nditurs, nd f

id trnsrnc in oDa flws, in rdr t mimis t

ffctivnss f dvlmnt rsurcs.

FInAnCIng the FIght

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Figure 1: Sb-Sahaa Afca (SSA) rsc Flws, 200011

2.3 2.3 2.6

2.9

4.8

Surcs: IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs; oeCD DaC; Wrld Bnk Wrld Dvlmnt Indictrs

Nt: all dt is msurd in USD billins in currnt rics t cmr ll flws. africn gvrnmnt nditurs r clcultd b cnvrting gvrnmntnditur srs (msurd s rcntg f GDp) int bslut nditur stimts. oDa figurs clud dbt rlif. Rmittncs r dfind srcits msurd trug t blnc f mnts mtd. FDI is dfind s nt inflws msurd trug t blnc f mnts mtd. Tfllwing cuntris r cludd du t lck f dt fr sm flws: Smli, Sut Sudn nd Sudn.

u

SDBillionS

2000

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

SSa Gvrnmnt enditurs Frign Dirct Invstmntofficil Dvlmnt assistnc Rmittncs

84

11.7

6.313

14.4

15.7

10.8

18.1

1321.8

10.1 23.6

17.3

18.1

25.2

20.2

13.6 31.0

22.1

27.237.6

24.3

36.4

39.8

23.2

32.7

39.5

24.8

26.641.8

23.9

38.9

87 84

114

136156

182

220

273 265

314

363


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Gvrnmnt nditurs b sub-Srn africn

cuntris v ldd vr t st 12 rs,

udruling sinc 2000. altug nt ll f ts

rsurcs r snt n scil srvics, gvrnmnts

v md trug t africn Unin nd tr

multiltrl frums sris f finncil

cmmitmnts in t st dcd rltd t svrl

MDG-rltd sctrs. In 2000, sub-Srn africn

nd tr gvrnmnts dtd t Dkr Frmwrk

fr actin wrb t cmmittd t llct ublic

snding lvls uivlnt t 7% f GDp nnull t t

ductin sctr b 2005, nd 9% f GDp b 2010. 2

In 2001, africn ldrs dtd t abuj Dclrtin

trb cmmitting t llct 15% f ttl

gvrnmnt nditurs t lt. Fiv rs ltr,

t ls cmmittd t rvid univrsl lt-crccss. In 2003, africn ldrs dtd t Mut

Dclrtin. Trug tis grmnt, t cmmittd

t llct 10% f ttl gvrnmnt nditurs t

rmt gricultur nd rurl dvlmnt b 2008

(s sit fr mr dtils n ts tr

cmmitmnts). Cllctivl, ts ig-lvl

cmmitmnts cvr t MDGs rltd t trm

vrt, ungr, ductin, gndr ulit,3 cild

mrtlit, mtrnl mrtl it, nd hIV/aIDS,

tubrculsis nd mlri. as rsult, wtr is t nl

cr MDG tt ds nt v cncrt gvrnmnt

snding cmmitmnt.

Ts africn cmmitmnts r criticl fr incrsing

surt fr vitl scil sctrs, but t v ls

risd numbr f imrtnt cnsidrtins. First, t

n-siz-fits-ll rc ds nt ncssril rflct

cuntr-scific nds nd liticl dnmics. Fr

ml, gvrnmnts m nt wis t llct 10% f

dmstic nditurs t gricultur if tir

cnmis nd lbur frc r nt cncntrtd intt sctr. In tr css, t Mut gricultur

trgt m b insufficint fr ts ntins wit vr

ig rurl vrt rts nd v dndnc n

gricultur. additinll, ts ts f untittiv

snding cmmitmnts culd v unintndd

cnsuncs in trms f incntivising infficint r

inffctiv rgrmms (.g. rgrssiv, cstl nd

crrutin-rn surt rgrmms) r incntivising

t ttinmnt f untittiv trgts vr t ulit

f srvics dlivrd. Scnd, ts MDG-rltd

nditur cmmitmnts culd crwd ut ublic

invstmnts in tr africn Unin ririt rs nt

licitl mntind s MDG trgts, suc s

infrstructur (rticulrl wr nd trnsrttin).

argubl, ts ts f invstmnts culd ls

indirctl rvid sitiv imct n vrt, lt,

nd ductin utcms trug grtr ccss t

bsic srvics nd cnmic rtunitis. Trfr,

t africn Unin lt nd gricultur dlin

nditur trgts suld b rcd wit

rrit cutin. at t sm tim, sinc trrsnt clr cmmitmnts b africn ldrs, it is

rrit t trck gvrnmnts imlmnttin

rfrmnc until nw r diffrnt trgts r grd.

DOMeStIC eXPenDItUReS

SUB-SAhARAn AFRICAn COUntRIeS

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AfricAn commitments to sectorAl spending

Sc Am Ya Adpd Pld Dals

hal t Abuja Dclaraio4 2001 hads of Sas of [ Africa Uio]

pld o s a ar of allocai a

las 15% of aual bud o

improvm of al scor [] ad

a a adqua porio of is amou

is pu a disposal of naioal

Commissios/Coucils for fi

aais hIV/AIDS, tubrculosis ad or

rlad ifcious disass.

Mad followi 2000 MDg Summi,

Abuja Dclaraios aim is wo-fold: i)

o mpasis lack of Africa

domsic rsourcs for al, ad ii) o

ur door couris o fulfil ar of

0.7% of gnI for ODA.

Ariculur t Mapuo Dclaraio5 2003 ... w ar o adop soud policis for

ariculural ad rural dvlopm, ad

commi ourslvs o allocai a las

10% of aioal budary rsourcs for

ir implmaio wii fiv yars.

hads of Sa also commid o sk

6% aual ariculural row by 2008.

educaio t Dakar Framwork for Acio6 2000 govrms sould sur a a las

7% of gDP is allocad o ducaio

wii fiv yars ad 9% wii yars.

164 couris lobally sid o,

icludi all sub-Saara Africa

couris (xcp Somalia ad Suda).


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7.1 7.1 7.1 10.3

12.8 14.617.5

22.125.9 26.4

29.635.0 35.1

36.138.1 40.2

23.9

22.5

21.321.220.2

17.3

13.515.2

11.1

9.9

8.87.6

6.8

5.65.95.6

Surcs: Wrld hlt orgnistin, IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs nd oNe clcultins

Nt: all dt is msurd in USD billins in currnt rics. Figurs fr 201115 r rjctins bsd n t ssumtin tt currnt gvrnmnt ltnditur lvls (s rrtin f ttl gvrnmnt nditur) v itr rmind, r will rmin, cnstnt. Tis dt rrsnts cllctiv muntscrss t 44 sub-Srn africn cuntris mind. In css wr cuntr s cdd its abuj cmmitmnt in n givn r, t dficit is trtds zr.

2000

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2 0 1 1 2012 2013 2014 2015

uSDBillionS

abuj Cmmitmnt DficitSSa Gvrnmnt hlt enditurs


HeAltH

Sinc t abuj cmmitmnts wr md in 2001,

gvrnmnts n t wl v flln fr srt f

mting tir gl f snding 15% f ttl gvrnmnt

nditurs n lt. Cllctivl, n stimtd $102

billin in dditinl rsurcs wuld v bn

dld fr lif-sving rgrmms if sub-Srn

africn gvrnmnts d mt tir cmmitmnts

vr r btwn 2001 nd 2010.7 T igligt t

ug scl f t gvrnmnt nditur dficit,

cnsidr tt dnr lt ssistnc fr sub-Srn

afric ttlld nrl $46 billin btwn 2001 nd

2010, lss tn lf f t cumultiv abuj

nditur dficit vr t sm rid.8

prgrss in mting cmmitmnts s bn unvn

crss cuntris. oNe nlsd t tnt t wic

cuntris cnsistntl mt tir abuj cmmitmnts

vr r, b finding t vrg rrtinl dficit

crss t rid 200110. B tis msur, Rwnd

nd Mlwi cnsistntl cdd, n vrg, t

rrtin f snding ruird t mt t

cmmitmnt, nd Btswn ws trml cls,

mting n vrg 99.9% f t cmmitmnt.9

hwvr, svrl tr cuntris v fild t mt, n

vrg, vn lf f t cmmitmnt: eritr, Guin,

Guin-Bissu, Rublic f Cng, Ct dIvir,

Figure 2: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm Halh epds (Acal vss Abja Cmmms), 200015

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Val f Cmlav

Abja Dfc (uSD Blls),

2001-10

Surcs: Wrld hltorgnistin, IMF Wrldecnmic outlk Dtbsnd oNe clcultins

Nt: T fllwing cuntrisr cludd du t lck fdt vilbilit n ltnditurs: Djibuti,Muritni, Smli, SutSudn, Sudn nd Zimbbw.T cumultiv abuj dficitclumn sws t vlus inbslut dllr trms (bsdn currnt rics) f tdditinl finncing tt wuldv bn md vilbl frlt d cuntris mt tirabuj cmmitmnt in vr

r btwn 2001 nd 2010,cunting n css wncuntris cdd tircmmitmnts s zr (rtrtn ngtiv dficit). Frmr dtils, s tmtdlg sctin.

RwndMlwi

Btswn

Burkin FsZmbi

MzmbiuMdgscr

LibriGn

TnzniS Tm nd prnci

NmibiNigr

Mlietii

Sut africTg

Gmbi

SnglC VrdUgnd

BninSwzilnd

Cntrl africn RublicCmrs

Lsteutril Guin

BurundiMuritius

ScllsCd

Cng, DRCKn

Cmrn

Sirr LnNigrianglGbn

Ct dIvirCng, Rublic f

Guin-BissuGuineritr

% f Abja Cmmm M

0.0420.0650.388

0.1420.1540.3740.1680.0371.0060.8840.0160.6700.2700.5271.160

25.7330.134

0.059

0.8850.1700.8580.4930.4060.127

0.0430.3651.7620.2411.0260.2251.0831.0224.2792.233

0.27130.81214.820

1.9903.4081.7370.143

0.8380.645

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


Figure 3: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm Halh epds, 200110 Ava (% f Abja Cmmm)

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21%

38%

42%

33%

30%

38%

oN TRaCK oFF TRaCKpaRTIaLLy oN TRaCK

Surcs: Wrld hlt orgnistin, IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs nd oNe clcultins

Nt: Du t lck f dt vilbilit n lt nditurs, t fllwing cuntris r cludd: Djibuti, Muritni, Smli, Sut Sudn, Sudn ndZimbbw. Fr mr dtils, s t mtdlg sctin.

AVerAgeABujASPenDingDeFiCit

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0ChILD MoRTaLITy MaTeRNaL MoRTaLITy


Gbn, angl, Nigri, Sirr Ln nd Cmrn.

Trug 2010, Nigri ws t lrgst lggrd in

bslut trms wit cumultiv snding dficit f

rugl $31 billin. Sut afric nd angl ls dlrg cumultiv dficits, f rimtl $26 billin

nd $15 billin rsctivl.

on vrg, sub-Srn africn cuntris tt v

riritisd dmstic nditurs n lt vr t

st dcd r dmnstrting bttr MDG lt

utcms, ll tr tings bing ul rticulrl n

cild nd mtrnl mrtlit.10 B illustrtin, cuntris

tt r n trck t civ tir cild mrtlit

rductin trgts r ls ts mking grtr

rgrss twrds tir abuj snding trgts (wit n

vrg dficit f nl 21% btwn 2001 nd 2010).11

Tis cmrs wit n vrg lt snding dficit

f 42% fr ts cuntris tt r ff trck t mt

tir cild mrtlit rductin trgts.

If sub-Srn africn gvrnmnts mintin isting

lt snding lvls (msurd s sr f ttl

nditurs), tn rltd invstmnts wuld ttl n

stimtd $114 billin btwn 2013 nd 2015. hwvr,

n dditinl $68 billin wuld b cnnlld fr

lif-sving lt nditurs if ts sm

gvrnmnts mt tir isting abuj cmmitmnts

during t sm tim rid. angl, Nigri nd Sutafric ccunt fr sligtl mr tn tw-tirds f tis

rjctd dficit.12 Clrl, incrsing finncing in lin

wit t abuj cmmitmnts, if dlivrd ffctivl

nd ccuntbl, culd rvid mjr bst t

MDG-rltd lt utcms in sub-Srn afric.

Figure 4: Ava Abja Spd Cmmm Dfc (200110) by MDg Pfmac Sas

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tis yar niria scord 3.0 o MDg Prorss

Idx a improvm o is scor i 2010 (1.5), ad

y rvali a i las far bid may or

sub-Saara Africa couris i a umbr of crucial

aras. niria is o rack o m oly a sil cor

MDg ar by 2015 (ur). I is parially o rack o

m dr qualiy, cild moraliy, maral

moraliy ad war ars, ad worryily off rack

o povry, ducaio ad hIV/AIDS ars. 13 tis

is dspi subsaial fiacial rsourcs availabl

o ovrm, wi oil rvus amoui o

aroud $52 billio i 2011.14 Wi is vry lar

populaio, nirias sa of dvlopm as a u

impac o rioal, v lobal, prorss. As a

illusraio, wil i is maki parial prorss i rms

of rduci is cild moraliy ras, i 2011 r wr

756,000 udr-fiv das. tis alo accous for 11%

of udr-fiv das worldwid.15 Similarly, niriaaccous for ovr 30% of malaria das lobally. 16

Wi niria parially o rack for al-rlad oals

suc as cild moraliy ad maral moraliy,

fulfilli is al spdi commim rou

ffciv ad accouabl prorammi is ow mor

sraically impora a vr abli i o build

o radual prorss us far, acclra is

implmaio ad spri owards MDg fiis li

i 2015.

If curr spdi lvls (bud allocaios as a

sar of oal bud) wr carrid forward, niria isprojcd o av a cumulaiv Abuja commim

dfici of $22.5 billio bw 2013 ad 2015. I or

words, if niria m is Abuja commim o spd

15% of is oal bud o al i 2013, 2014 ad

2015, r would b a addiioal $22.5 billio

availabl for ky ivsms i al.

WHAt could $22.5 billion pAy for?$1.63 (j 7% h a a) w a 163 -a -a

(itn) aa aaa ou o covr idividually ir populaio of niriafor r yars.17 Malaria is a r isk for 100% of nirias populaio.18 Accordi o a 2010 survy, 28% of

populaio ad accss o a Itn.19 tr ar a simad 50.6 millio malaria cass, wi 207,000 das

pr yar i niria.20 If v a small porio of xra Abuja al fudi was usd o sur a vry

sil you cild i niria was covrd by a Itn, sudis av foud is could ovr im rduc

nirias udr-fiv moraliy by 23%. If os ais wr ralisd immdialy, a 23% rducio s

aually ovr a r-yar priod i niria would sav rouly 522,000 livs.21

$936 (j 4% h a a) v h h a v

na wh h va: paval (o fi aus, dipria, woopi cou, hpaiis B ad

miiis), pumococcal (o fi pumoia) ad roavirus (o fi diarroal disas). Ovr im, is

could sav mor a 900,000 livs.22

$3.42 (j 15% h a a) a v v wh HiV na aroud 3.4 millio popl o rciv airroviral ram (ARt) for AIDS across wol

r-yar priod.23

tHe impAct of nigeriAs HeAltH spending deficit

WHAt Would be tHe impAct on mdgperformAnce?By mi is Abuja commim o al spdi, niria could dramaically rduc is cild moraliy

ra allowi i o rac is rlad MDg ars ovr im, ad radically dimiis dvasai impac

of hIV/AIDS by providi ARVs for vry prso wo ds ram. Ad r would sill b mor a

$16 billio of addiioal fuds availabl for or public al proramms.

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28%

52%

61%

55%

38%

55%

49%

87%

oN TRaCK oFF TRaCK INSUFFICIeNT DaTapaRTIaLLy oN TRaCK

A

VerAgeMAPutoSPenDingDeF

iCit

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Surcs: RSaKSS, IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs nd oNe clcultins

Nt: Nt vr sub-Srn africn cuntr is rrsntd r, du t lck f dt vilbilit n gricultur nditurs. Fr cuntris wit ngtivvrg rrtinl dficit (Burkin Fs, etii, Guin, Mli, Nigr nd Sngl), ts ngtiv vlus wr trtd s zr.

exTReMe poVeRTy hUNGeR


Figure 5: Ava Map Spd Cmmm Dfc (2003-09), by MDg Pfmac Sas

Agriculture

avilbl dt suggsts tt sub-Srn africn

gvrnmnts r filing t mt tir Mut

cmmitmnts t snd 10% f ttl gvrnmnt

nditurs n gricultur. accurtl ssssing

gvrnmnts rfrmnc ginst tir Mut

nditur cmmitmnts is difficult, du t unclr

dfinitins but wt is includd in gricultur

snding24 nd lck f dt vilbilit crss

mn cuntris. Du t ts limittins,

rsnbl dgr f cutin suld b usd wn

intrrting rsults nd trnds. Tis sctin

nlss dt frm t Rginl Strtgic

anlsis nd Knwldg Surt Sstm

(RSaKSS), wic includs vrg sr stimts

fr gricultur nditur fr 38 sub-Srn

africn gvrnmnts during t

200309 rid.25

accrding t vilbl RSaKSS dt, si sub-Srn

africn cuntris wr mting tir Mut

cmmitmnts n vrg vr 200309: Burkin Fs

(19.2%), Nigr (15.5%), etii (13.7%), Guin (13.7%),

Sngl (12.1%) nd Mli (11.8%); s Figur 6. In

rrtinl trms, t biggst lggrds wr t

Sclls, Rublic f Cng, Dmcrtic Rublic f

Cng, Guin-Bissu, Ct dIvir, Ugnd nd Sirr

Ln, wic ll fild t mt vn 30% f t

cmmitmnt n vrg. Cllctivl, sub-Srn

africn gvrnmnts tt fild t mt tir Mut

cmmitmnts d n stimtd cumultiv

nditur dficit f rimtl $42 billin

btwn 2003 nd 2009.26 angl nd Nigri

ccuntd fr vr lf f tis munt, wit stimtd

cumultiv Mut nditur srtflls f $7.9 billin

nd $15.9 billin rsctivl.

on vrg, sub-Srn africn cuntris tt v

riritisd dmstic nditurs n gricultur nd

rurl dvlmnt vr t st dcd rdmnstrting bttr MDG utcms n trm

vrt nd ungr (i.. undrnurismnt), ll tr

tings bing ul. B illustrtin, cuntris tt r

currntl n trck t civ tir vrt trgts d

n vrg Mut snding dficit f 28%, wrs

cuntris tt r currntl ff trck d n vrg

Mut snding dficit f 61%. Similrl, cuntris

tt r currntl n trck t civ tir ungr

trgts d n vrg Mut snding dficit f

38%, wrs cuntris tt r ff trck d n

vrg Mut snding dficit f 49%.

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Surcs: RSaKSS, IMF Wrldecnmic outlk Dtbs ndoNe clcultins

Nt: Du t lck f dt vilbilitn gricultur nditurs, ntvr sub-Srn africn cuntris rrsntd bv. Tcumultiv Mut dficit clumnsws t stimtd vlus inbslut dllr trms (bsd ncurrnt rics) f t dditinlfinncing tt wuld v bnmd vilbl fr gricultur d

cuntris mt tir Mutcmmitmnt in vr r btwn2003 nd 2009. Ts rstimts, drivd frm t vrgsrs f ttl nditur llctdt gricultur trugut t ntirrid 200309 fr c cuntr.Sinc w d nt v ctul figursfr nnul gricultur snding, wcnnt clcult t ctul dficitcrss tis rid.

Burkin Fs

Nigr

Guin

etiiSngl

Mli

Mlwi

Gn

Zimbbw

Cd

Mdgscr

Nmibi

Bnin

Zmbi

Tnzni

Libri

Gmbi

TgKn

Burundi

Swzilnd

Mzmbiu

S Tm nd prnci

angl

Lst

Cmrn

Rwnd

Nigri

Muritius

Btswn

Cntrl africn Rublic

Sirr Ln

UgndCt dIvir

Guin-Bissu

Cng, DRC

Cng, Rublic f

Sclls

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.0000.000

0.000

0.016

0.411

0.055

0.189

0.267

0.472

0.310

0.761

1.241

0.055

0.051

0.1702.185

0.158

0.359

0.791

0.024

7.901

0.313

1.281

0.341

15.937

0.855

1.885

0.112

0.163

1.0842.011

0.087

1.182

1.225

0.230

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Val f esmad CmlavMap Dfc (uSD Blls),

200309 % f Map Cmmm M


Figure 6: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm Acl epds, 200309 Ava esmas (% f Map Cmmm)

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tr is o fully comprsiv, up-o-da daas for ariculural xpdiurs.

Parly is is du o fac a r is o ard Africa Uio dfiiio as o

wa sould b icludd; as suc, i is difficul o dvlop ad maiai a cosis

s of daa ovr im. howvr, for is rc rpor A growi Opporuiy:

Masuri Ivsms i Africa Ariculur, One assmbld w daa, icludi

2011 xpdiur simas for 19 sub-Saara Africa couris, ard from

rlad miisry docums ad irviws wi miisry officials.27

Accordi o is 2011 daa, oly four couris (ou of 19 assssd) ar currly

mi ir Mapuo commims: eiopia (19.7%), nir (18.9%), Malawi (12.6%)

ad Cap Vrd (10.1%). two addiioal couris ar vry clos o mi ir

commims Sal (9.5%) ad Sirra Lo (8.9%). howvr, sv couris

ar faili o m v alf of ir xpdiur ars. ts laards iclud

gaa (1.1%), niria (1.7%), Libria (1.4%), Bi (2.3%), Burkia Faso (2.5%), too

(3.0%) ad Burudi (3.2%). t 15 couris lai o ir Mapuo commims

ad a simad collciv xpdiur dfici of arly $4.4 billio i 2011 wic is

quival o mor a r ims amou of oal door ariculur assisac

o s sam couris i 2011.

giv widsprad cocraio of xrm povry i rural aras, sub-Saara

Africa ovrms sould b icrasi ir focus o ariculur ad rural

dvlopm ivsms. Alarmily, One foud a i couris (ou of 19

xamid) acually rducd ir ariculur xpdiurs i 2011 compard wi

200309 priod. Wil som of s cas may b driv by diffrcs i

daa modolois mployd by RSAKSS ad One, ovrall rd dos o

idica widsprad, or rowi, Africa ladrsip o ariculural dvlopm.

Figure 7: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm Acl epds, 2011 (Vss Map Cmmms)

ones Agriculture AccountAbility report

Surc: oNe (2013) a Grwingortunit: Msuring Invstmnts inafricn agricultur, .19

Nt: Tis dtst ws ssmbld boNe bsd n africn gvrnmntdcumnts nd intrviws wit fficils.Tis nlsis fcusd n ts cuntris

wit vttd nd ndrsd griculturinvstmnt lns. oNe ws unbl tcllct dtild infrmtin fr trcuntris. as rsult, t ggrgtdficit figurs r likl t significntlundrstimt t ttl Mutnditur dficit fr ll sub-Srnafricn cuntris.

%o

FtotA

lgoVernMentexPenDitureS

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

ethIOPIA

nIgeR

MALAW

I

CAPe

VeRDe

Seneg

AL

SIeRRA

LeO

ne

MALI

tAnzA

nIA

gAMBIA

RWAnDA

KenyA

UgAnDA

BURU

nDI

tOgO

BURKInAFA

SO

BenIn

LIBeRIA

nIgeRIA

ghAn

A

7/28/2019 Data Report 2013

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5.5

11.2 10.5 10.814.8

19.723.9 26.0

29.432.7 33.8

43.3 49.150.0 52.8

56.260.2

5.8 6.1

7.9

9.1

10.7

23.0

27.4

32.4 30.0

33.0

38.1 39.7

42.2

44.9

48.0

2000

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

2 0 01 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5

uSDBillionS

Surcs: UNeSCo, IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs nd oNe clcultins

Nt: all dt is msurd in USD billins in currnt rics. Figurs fr 201115 r rjctins bsd n t ssumtin tt currnt gvrnmnt lt nditur lvls (s rrtin f GDp) v itr rmind, r will rmin,cnstnt. Gvrnmnt dt n ductin snding is mr limitd tn fr tr sctrs, suc s lt. Svrl sub-Srn africn cuntris including Guin-Bissu, Nigri nd S Tm nd prnci d nt v n dt vilblfr t rid btwn 2000 nd 2010. Fr tr cuntris, in css wr individul r bsrvtins r missing, w ssum tt rvius ductin nditur srs wr ld cnstnt (msurd s rcntg f GDp). Tis dtrrsnts cllctiv munts crss t 41 sub-Srn africn cuntris mind. hwvr, in css wr cuntr s cdd its Dkr cmmitmnt in n givn r, w v trtd tis s zr. T msur t cmmitmntdficit, oNe lid trgt f 7% f GDp btwn 2000 nd 2005, nd 9% f GDp frm 2006 nwrds.

Dkr Cmmitmnt DficitSSa Gvrnmnt eductin enditurs


educAtion

T Dkr Frmwrk fr actin cmmittd africn

(nd tr) gvrnmnts t llcting ublic snding

lvls uivlnt t 7% f GDp (rtr tn ut f ttl

nditurs) nnull t t ductin sctr b

2005, nd 9% f GDp b 2010. T dt, nl n

sub-Srn africn cuntr (Lst) s mt its

ductin snding trgts, bsd n vilbl dt.

Cumultivl, n stimtd $191 billin in dditinl

rsurcs culd v bn dld fr ductin if

sub-Srn africn gvrnmnts d mt tir wn

liticl cmmitmnts btwn 2000 nd 2010.28

Sut afric nd angl ccunt fr lmst lf f t

cllctiv dficit ($69 billin nd $24 billin

rsctivl). otr significnt lggrds includ

Cmrn ($9.2 billin), eutril Guin ($7.0 billin),

Ct dIvir ($6.9 billin), etii ($6.7 billin) nd

Zmbi ($6.3 billin). Nigri ds nt rrt ublic

ductin snding lvls (msurd s rcntg

f GDp).

oNe ls nlsd t tnt t wic cuntris

cnsistntl mt tir Dkr cmmitmnts vr

Figure 8: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm edca epds (Acal vss Daka Cmmms), 200015

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Lst

Btswn

Swzilnd

C VrdNmibi

Kn

Gn

Tnzni

Sut afric

Rwnd

Sclls

Cmrs

Mzmbiu

Mlwi

Ct dIvir

Sngl

etii

Sirr Ln

BurundiBurkin Fs

Mli

Tg

Bnin

Gbn

Muritius

Ugnd

Nigr

Mdgscr

Cmrn

eritr

angl

Cng, Rublic f

Guin

LibriCd

Zimbbw

Cng, DRC

Gmbi

Zmbi

Cntrl africn Rublic

eutril Guin

Surcs: UNeSCo, IMF Wrldecnmic outlk Dtbs ndoNe clcultins

Nt: Du t lck f dt vilbilitn ductin nditurs, tfllwing cuntris r cludd:Djibuti, Guin-Bissu, Muritni,Nigri, S Tm nd prnci,Smli, Sut Sudn nd Sudn.Lst (rrsntd in blu) mt,nd indd cdd, t Dkrcmmitmnt n vrg btwn2000 nd 2010. T clumncumultiv Dkr dficit sws tvlus in bslut dllr trms(bsd n currnt rics) f t

dditinl finncing tt wuld vbn md vilbl fr ductind cuntris mt tir Dkrcmmitmnt in vr r btwn2001 nd 2010, cunting n csswn cuntris cdd tircmmitmnts s zr (rtr tn ngtiv dficit). Fr mr dtils,s t mtdlg sctin. Tmsur rgrss ginst t Dkrcmmitmnt, oNe lid trgtf 7% f GDp btwn 2000 nd2005, nd 9% f GDp frm 2006nwrds.

0.000

0.578

0.291

0.2181.223

3.626

5.065

1.567

69.076

1.186

0.256

0.110

2.053

1.367

6.946

3.486

6.670

0.835

0.4941.888

2.683

1.033

2.061

4.281

3.385

5.238

1.846

3.360

9.225

0.730

24.263

3.847

2.260

0.2243.365

0.483

0.853

0.464

6.310

1.064

7.016

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Val f esmad CmlavDaka Dfc (uSD Blls),

200010 % f Daka Cmmm M


Figure 9: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm edca epds, 200010 Ava (% f Daka Cmmm)

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32%

48%50%

71%

41%

51%48%

84%

Surcs: UNeSCo, IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs nd oNe clcultins

Nt: Du t lck f dt vilbilit n ductin nditurs, t fllwing cuntris r cludd: Djibuti, Guin-Bissu, Muritni, Nigri, STm nd prnci, Smli, Sut Sudn nd Sudn. Fr Lst, wic s ngtiv vrg rrtinl dficit, tis ws trtd s zr. Fr mrdtils, s t mtdlg sctin.

AVerAgeDAkArSPenDingDe

FiCit

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

eDUCaTIoN GeNDeR eqUaLITy

oN TRaCK oFF TRaCK INSUFFICIeNT DaTapaRTIaLLy oN TRaCK


r, b finding t vrg rrtinl dficit

crss t rid 200010. B tis msur,

Lst ws nc gin t nl cuntr t

cnsistntl cd, n vrg, t rrtin f

snding ruird t mt t cmmitmnt, tug

Btswn ws trml cls, mting n vrg

99% f t cmmitmnt vr t rid. B

cntrst, t fllwing cuntris wr filing, n

vrg, t mt vn 30% f t cmmitmnt vrtis rid: eutril Guin, Cntrl africn

Rublic, Zmbi, Gmbi, Dmcrtic Rublic f

Cng, Zimbbw nd Cd.

on vrg, sub-Srn africn cuntris tt

lcd grtr ririt n ublic ductin

invstmnts btwn 2000 nd 2010 r

dmnstrting bttr MDG utcms. B illustrtin,

cuntris tt r n trck t civ tir

rsctiv rimr ductin cmltin rt

trgts b 2015 d n vrg Dkr snding

trgt dficit f 32% btwn 2000 nd 2010.29 Tiscmrs wit n vrg ductin snding

dficit f 50% fr ts cuntris tt r ff trck

t mt tir rimr ductin trgts. T

rltinsi btwn rfrmnc twrds t

Dkr cmmitmnts nd rgrss twrds gndr

ulit MDG utcms is similr, tug nt uit

s strng.

If sub-Srn africn gvrnmnts mintin

isting ductin snding lvls (msurd s

sr f GDp), tn rltd invstmnts wuld ttl

rjctd $169 billin btwn 2013 nd 2015. andditinl $135 billin wuld b cnnlld fr

ductin srvics if ts sm gvrnmnts mt

tir isting Dkr cmmitmnts during t sm

rid. Clrl, mking incrsd rgrss n

snding twrds ts cmmitmnts, if dlivrd

ffctivl nd ccuntbl, culd rvid mjr

bst t MDG-rltd ductin utcms in

sub-Srn afric.

Figure 10: Ava Daka Spd Cmmm Dfc (2000-10), by MDg Pfmac Sas

Wil gvrnmnts in t rgin v md clr

ductin nditur cmmitmnts, t rivt

sctr nd fit-bsd rgnistins ls l n

imrtnt nd rminnt rl in t rvisin f

lw-cst ductin srvics. Mrvr, in mn

sub-Srn africn cuntris, t rivt sctrs

sr f ductin nrlmnt s incrsd

significntl vr rcnt rs.30 Trfr, ur

nlsis ds nt ctur t cmlt ictur f

ntinl invstmnts in ductin srvics. Givn

tis, sm rrit cutin suld b tkn wn

intrrting t rltinsi btwn istricl

ductin nditur trnds nd rltd

MDG utcms.

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Aolas scor o MDg Prorss Idx is jus 2.5,

rvali slow prorss ad placi i oly jus abov

rsold for laard couris. ev mor

disappoii, is scor as barly cad ovr

las r yars. Aola is off rack o alf of cor

MDg ars, icludi primary ducaio ad drqualiy i scool. I 2010 ( mos rc yar of

daa), oly 47% of scool-ad cildr compld

primary ducaio.31 Wil is is up from 34% ra

i 1991, prorss is owr ar fas ou o

aciv MDg ar of uivrsal primary

complio, ad almos alf a millio cildr

coiu o miss ou o scool irly.32 O

impora par of problm is aci crisis

a Aola facs, xacrbad by fac a

acr raii roud o a al duri dcads of

civil war. Wil a lar scool-buildi proramm

ba afr war, may of s scools coiuo lack adqua saff, ad i is simad a up o

40% of Aolas acrs ar o proprly qualifid.33

Aola as som of is commim dficis

of all sub-Saara Africa couris xamid i

is rpor. Ovr pas dcad, Aola as o b

clos o mi ay of is proporioal spdi

commims i al, ariculur or ducaio. For

illusraio, w xami ducaio. If curr spdi

lvls (bud allocaios as a sar of gDP) wr

carrid forward, Aola is projcd o av a

cumulaiv Dakar commim dfici of $21.6 billiobw 2013 ad 2015. I or words, if Aola m

is Dakar commim o spd 9% of is gDP o

ducaio i 2013, 2014 ad 2015, r would b a

addiioal $21.6 billio availabl for ky ivsms

i ducaio.

tHe impAct of AngolAs educAtion spending deficit

WHAt could $21.6 billion pAy for?$268 (j 1% h a) could pay for v Aa --h a a

h v a a a for wol priod 201315.34

$21.3 (h a 99%) could b usd o a v h qa a

a. Amo sub-Saara Africa couris wi a rlaivly i gDP pr capia, Aola as o of

lows public ducaio xpdiurs pr primary pupil. tis addiioal fiac could rais aual

xpdiur pr pupil mor a i-fold from jus $181 o $1,700, across wol r-yar priod,

payi for mor acrs, books, quipm ad cosrucio of br faciliis.35

For xampl, $1.8 of rmaii amou could a h aa 100,000 aa a

h ah for wol r yars mor a doubli oal umbr of primary scool

acrs i Aola.36 tis could alv avra pupil-acr raio, brii i dow o 23, ad abli

far mor ffciv aci.37

WHAt Would be tHe impAct on mdgperformAnce?Spdi v a fracio of oal Dakar commim ovr x r yars would fud qualiy

public primary ducaio rolm for vry cild i Aola mai a, if susaid, coury

could rac MDg ar of uivrsal primary ducaio wii a mar of yars.

Byod obvious bfis, ducaio as a u prov impac o dvlopm o avra, ac yar

of addiioal scooli raslas o a 10% icras i a prsos poial icom ad, a a aioal lvl,

lads o a 1% icras i aual gDP.38

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Trilblzr Lggrd

Surcs: IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs, Wrld hlt orgnistin, RSaKSS, UNeSCo, Wrld Bnk,Wrld Dvlmnt Indictrs, nd oNe clcultins

Nt: onl 34 sub-Srn africn cuntris r mind r, du t limitd dt vilbilit n lt,gricultur nd ductin nditurs. Sinc w r nt mining t full tim rid fr gricultur nd tfigurs usd r stimts nl, cutin suld b tkn wn intrrting ts findings.

MDg Pss

id Scs

Burkin Fs

etii

Gn

Nigr

Sngl

Mzmbiu

Nmibi

Tnzni

Mli

Rwnd

Lst

Mlwi

Mdgscr

Btswn

Tg

Kn

Swzilnd

BninGuin

Gmbi

Burundi

Ugnd

Ct dIvir

Zmbi

Libri

Cd

Cmrn

Sirr Ln

Cntrl africn Rublic

Muritius

Sclls

Cng, DRCangl

Cng, Rublic f

5.0

5.5

5.5

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.5

2.5

6.0

6.0

2.0

5.5

3.0

2.0

3.5

2.0

2.0

5.04.0

5.0

1.5

5.5

2.0

3.5

3.5

1.5

3.5

2.5

2.5

2.0

3.0

0.52.5

1.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

% f tal epd

100


Figure 11: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm esmad Ava Spd Halh, edca ad Acl

(Cmbd) as a Pca f tal epd (200010), wh MDg Pss id Scs

sociAl sector spending

And oVerAll mdg progress

Wn lking t sub-Srn africn gvrnmnts

snding lvls n lt, ductin nd gricultur

cmbind vr t st dcd, tr is strng

crrltin btwn lvls f snding nd vrll

MDG rgrss. on vrg, cuntris tt v

llctd grtr cmbind sr f gvrnmnt

nditurs twrds ts tr sctrs vcivd significntl imrvd MDG-rltd

utcms. B illustrtin, sub-Srn africn MDG

trilblzrs cuntris wit n Ind scr f 5.0 r

grtr llct 39% f ttl gvrnmnt

nditurs, n vrg, twrds lt, gricultur

nd ductin tgtr. Burkin Fs s llctd

52% f gvrnmnt nditurs t ts tr

sctrs vr t st dcd. Nt surrisingl, it s

n MDG prgrss Ind scr f 5.0. etii is

ntr ml. Its MDG-rltd nditur sr

s vrgd rugl 44% nd it is currntl n trck

t civ t trm vrt, ungr, cildmrtlit nd mtrnl mrtlit MDGs. In cntrst,

MDG lggrds ts wit scr f 2.0 r lss

llct nl 29% f ttl gvrnmnt nditurs

in ts sctrs, n vrg.

In ligt f ts findings, gvrnmnts tt r

data report 2013

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