danone sales q3 2012
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Sales Q3 2012
October 17th, 2012
2
Disclaimer
This document contains certain forward-looking statements concerning DANONE. AlthoughDANONE believes its expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, these forward-lookingstatements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results todiffer materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements. For a detaileddescription of these risks and uncertainties, please refer to the section “Risk Factors” inDANONE’s Annual Report (which is available on www.danone.com). DANONE undertakes noobligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements. This documentdoes not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, Danone shares.
4.3%
0.1% 1.6%
3.4%
Q3 2011 Currency Scope Volume Value Q3 2012
33
€ 4,805 mln
+5.0%Like-for-like (1)
Sales growth analysis – Q3 12
+9.4%Reported
€ 5,257 mln
(1) Like-for-like : Based on constant scope of consolidation and constant exchange rates
2.7%
0.0% 2.0%
3.6%
9M 2011 Currency Scope Volume Value 9M 2012
4
Sales growth analysis – 9M 2012
4
€ 14,532 mln
€ 15,733 mln
+5.6%Like-for-like
+8.3%Reported
7.8%
5.6%
FY 11 9M 12
Like-for-like sales growth
Total Group : Q2 sales growth continuing in Q3
5
8.5% 8.8%
5.9%
7.8%6.9%
5.0% 5.0%
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
A contrasted quarter again
Emerging markets and North America continuing strong
Further deterioration in Western Europe, driven by Southern Europe
3.7% 4.2%
0.1%1.5% 0.9%
-1.0%-1.5%
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
Dual geographical dynamics
6
EUROPE
ASIA
REST OF THE WORLD
Like-for-like sales growth by region
14.8%12.6% 11.5%
14.4%12.7%
10.7% 10.5%
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
18.0%20.8%
19.6%22.0%
19.4%17.2% 18.3%
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
5.0%
3.1%1.5%
2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.6%
3.5%
5.7%
4.4%
5.6%4.7%
2.9% 3.4%
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
Volume and Price/mix growth
7
Total Group : Resilient mix
Soft volume, mix remaining strong
3.0%2.0%
4.8%
3.6%
FY 11 9M 12
Volume Growth
Price / mix
8
Sales performanceby division
8
6.5%
5.5%
3.5%3.0%
3.8%
2.1%
0.7%
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
Like-for-like sales growth
FRESH DAIRY – Further deterioration in Europe
9
4.6%
2.2%
FY 11 9M 12
CIS and North America : on plan and accelerating vs Q2
Continued outperformance in Latam and Africa Middle East
Western Europe deteriorating further, sales decline exceeds 10% in Southern Europe
2.9%
(0.2%) (1.5%) (1.7%) (0.1%) (0.3%) (0.7%)
3.6%
5.7% 5.0%
4.7%3.9%
2.4%1.4%
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
Volume and Price/mix growth
10
-0.1%-0.4%
4.7%
2.6%
FY 11 9M 12
Volume Growth
Price / mix
FRESH DAIRY – Volume slightly negative
Volume remaining slightly negative, impacted by further deterioration in Europe, while continuing to progress in CIS and North America
FRESH DAIRY US Continued share gains globally and on the Greek segment
DanoneGreek(1)
$ sales
x 2.1
11
Total Danone
Competitor 1
Competitor 2
Danone Greek(1)
(1) Dannon + Stonyfield + Light & Fit Greek 11
US Value Market sharesSource : IRI Multi-Outlet with Walmart
YTD 2011 YTD 2012
31,9
27,0
16,3
8,5
Q4 2011 Q3 2012
FRESH DAIRY CIS From integration in 2011 to growth in 2012
2012 agenda: Activating the key brands
1212
�Integration
Drive efficiency to invest behind brands
Segment the portfolio
2011 priorities
�
�
�
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
Danone-Unimilk CIS % volume growth
(1) YTD September 2012 like-for-like growth - CIS 13
FRESH DAIRY CIS – Leveraging priority brands
13
+19%(1)
Prostokvashino
New identity since Q2
Tëma
from a Dairy brand for babies to a Babyfood brand
+12%(1)
FRESH DAIRY – Selected innovations
14
Breakfast Yogurt – Big bottle(Poland)
Densia Forte(Spain)
Danonki Single Cup(Poland)
Velouté Fruix – Kiss cup introduction(France)
#3 in Europe#25 Worldwide
Vitalinea PRO (Spain)
13.3%
18.9%
7.9%
23.3%
16.4%
4.6%
12.3%
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
15
Like-for-like sales growth
WATERS – Strong performance
15.7%
10.5%
FY 11 9M 12
Continued strong underlying category dynamics
Continued outperformance of Emerging markets & Aquadrinks
Favourable 2011 comparables in Western Europe, but poor weather in July
10.7% 10.0%
4.9%
10.1%7.7%
3.1%5.4%
2.6%
8.9%
3.0%
13.2%
8.7%
1.5%
6.9%
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
WATERS – Balanced growth
16
Volume and Price/mix growth
Solid volume growth
Positive product mix brought by good performance of Western Europe & Aquadrinks
Volume Growth
Price / mix
8.8%
5.3%
6.9%
5.2%
FY 11 9M 12
WATERS – Selected innovations
17
Font Vella – Limited edition(Spain)
Bonafont HOD –11L new PET format
(Mexico)
Bonafont Kids - Jugo Mango
(Mexico)
Mizone - Multipack new design(China)
BABY NUTRITION – Continued excellent performance
18
Like-for-like sales growth
11.2%
9.6%10.5%
11.4%
9.0%
13.6%
11.5%
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
10.7%11.4%
FY 11 9M 12
Continued great performance across the board, boosted by Asia
China : good acceptance of the renovated Dumex range
Positive mix from Milk outperformance vs Food decline
CHINA : Renovating Dumex
STAGE ENHANCED NUTRITION
14.5
15.0
YTD 2011 YTD 2012
Danone value market shares Modern Trade – Total milks (August 2012)
19
BABY NUTRITION – Selected innovations
20
MellinAffordable Format
(Italia)
MilupaAptamil Cereal
(Turkey)
Malyutka Cereals with juices(Russia)
Dumex Mamil PreciNutri Range (Malaysia)
MEDICAL NUTRITION – Soft performance
21
Like-for-like sales growth
9,3%8,7%
9,8% 9,8%
6,4% 6,7%
4,9%
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
9,4%
6,0%
FY 11 9M 12
Performance hit by deterioration in some European markets
China, Turkey & Brazil outperforming
MEDICAL NUTRITION – Selected innovations
22
Complan renovation(UK)
Neocate LCP Special Recipe(China)
SouvenaidPhased introduction in 4 countries
StrawberryVanilla
• For the dietary management of early Alzheimer’s Disease
• For patients under medical supervision
23
Balance sheet management
2323
Completed : repurchase of € 6 mln treasury shares given in payment to ex-minority shareholders in Danone Spain
€ 500-700 mln Share Buy-Back in the next 4 months
24
OUTLOOK
24
-50 bpsTrading operating margin(1)
25
2012 Objectives
(1) Like-for-like : Based on constant scope of consolidation and constant exchange rates
5-7%
Objectives 2012
Sales growth (1)
€ 2 bnFree cash flow (2)
25(2) Free cash flow: Cash flow from operations less capital expenditure (net of disposals) and excluding business combinations fees 25
26
APPENDIX
Impact of currency and scope – Q3 12
27
Currency
Scope of consolidation
Reported sales growth
+5.1%
+0.4%
+17.8%
+3.6%
+0.2%
+4.5%
WatersDairyBaby
Nutrition
+5.7%
+0.0%
+17.2%
Medical Nutrition
+8.4%
+3.7%
Group
(0.2)%
+4.3%
+9.4%
+0.1%
Like-for-like sales growth +12.3%+0.7% +11.5% +4.9% +5.0%
Impact of currency and scope – 9M 2012
28
Currency
Scope of consolidation
Reported sales growth
+3.0%
(0.1)%
+13.4%
+2.2%
(0.1)%
+4.3%
WatersDairyBaby
Nutrition
+4.3%
+0.0%
+15.7%
Medical Nutrition
+9.0%
+2.5%
Group
+0.5%
2.7%
+8.3%
+0.0%
Like-for-like sales growth +10.5%+2.2% +11.4% +6.0% +5.6%
Q3 2012 sales by business & geographical area
29
Fresh Dairy Products 2,910
Baby Nutrition 1,062
Waters
Medical Nutrition
+11.5%
+4.9%
+12.3%
+0.7%
962
323
€ mln
Europe
Asia
Rest of World
2,682
1,629
946
Q3 2011 Q3 2012
Like-for-like sales growth
GROUP 5,257 +5.0%
2,785
906
816
298
2,661
1,404
740
4,805
(1.5)%
+10.5%
+18.3%
Q3 2012 like-for-like sales growthBreakdown volume/value
30
+6.9%
(1.0)%
+7.9%
+1.4%
+5.4%
+5.9%
+3.6%
(0.7)%
+1.1%
+5.5%
+9.4%
(2.6)%
+5.0%
+8.9%
Like-for-like
GROUP +1.6% +3.4%
Volume Value Total
Fresh Dairy Products
Baby Nutrition
Waters
Medical Nutrition
Europe
Asia
Rest of World
+11.5%
+4.9%
+12.3%
+0.7%
+5.0%
(1.5)%
+10.5%
+18.3%
9M 2012 sales by business & geographical area
31
Fresh Dairy Products 8,816
Baby Nutrition 3,152
Waters
Medical Nutrition
+11.4%
+6.0%
+10.5%
+2.2%
2,817
948
€ mln
Europe
Asia
Rest of World
8,231
4,794
2,708
9M 2011 9M 2012
Like-for-like sales growth
GROUP 15,733 +5.6%
8,457
2,723
2,483
869
8,203
4,194
2,135
14,532
(0.6)%
+11.3%
+18.2%
9M 2012 like-for-like sales growthBreakdown volume/value
32
+10.5%
+6.0%
+11.4%
+2.2%
+5.2%
(0.7)%
+6.6%
+2.6%
+5.3%
+6.7%
+4.8%
(0.4)%
+2.0%
+6.9%
+5.8%
(2.6)%
+4.4%
+12.4%
Like-for-like
GROUP +2.0% +3.6% +5.6%
Volume Value Total
Fresh Dairy Products
Baby Nutrition
Waters
Medical Nutrition
Europe
Asia
Rest of World
(0.6)%
+11.3%
+18.2%
Changes in exchange rates40% of sales denominated in €
33
US Dollar 9%
Polish Zloty 3%
4%Brazilian Real
10%Russian Ruble
6%Chinese Yuan
2%Turkish Lira
2%Canadian Dollar
Mexican Peso 5%
+10%
+13%
(1)%
+2%
(5)%
(7)%
+7%
+0%
5%British Pound +7%
9M 12 % total sales
9M 12 vs9M 11 (avg)
Q3 12 vsQ3 11 (avg)
6%Indonesian Rupee +3%
+13%
+14%
+9%
+3%
+0%
(9)%
+11%
+5%
+11%
+2%
5%Argentinean Peso +1% +2%