daniel gilbert - how to build your own automated bidding system in less than 6 weeks
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@danielgilbert44
How to build your own automated bidding system in less than 60 weeks
@danielgilbert44
Hi, I’m Dan Gilbert
• 40 Super-geeks• “Best PPC Agency in the world”*
*According to a Survey of me
@danielgilbert44
Coming to #mktfest
@danielgilbert44
Automation is not optional
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A basic AdWords account with 10,000 keywords has a trillion bidding possibilities every single day
@danielgilbert44
Problem with 3rd party toolsNot responsive enoughNot up to dateNot bespokeLots of stuff you don’t need
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@danielgilbert44
Be More Responsive
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@danielgilbert44
• AdWords restricted to 6 bidding windows
• 3rd party tools make 4 changes max
• Overall ROI increase of 11% for Domino’s Pizza
http://bit.ly/1GwKN1Z
24/7 Bidding
@danielgilbert44
• Mobiles are different at different times
Adjust mobile bids hourlyHour Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
0 157% -41% 59% -7% 74% -17% -5%1 -36% 11% -79% 96% 72% 3% -52%2 58% -41% 103% -22% -40% 19% -28%3 36% 240% -33% 153% 468% 22%4 -66% 362% 221% -36% -88%5 -11% 153% 122% 215% 140%6 66% 31% 18% 39% 219% 18% -3%7 20% -53% -2% -11% 18% 26% 2%8 12% 18% -1% -5% 63% 17% -29%9 -11% 13% 7% 42% -26% -29% -54%
10 30% 5% -12% 40% 29% -30% -15%11 16% -31% 36% 37% -14% -23% 30%12 94% 20% -2% 8% 41% -37% 34%13 -25% -21% 32% 17% -29% -11% -15%14 -23% -17% 13% 3% 46% -6% -15%15 1% 0% 20% -10% 25% -15% 5%16 -4% 14% -17% 10% 15% -16% 4%17 6% 10% 8% -3% 58% -26% -29%18 1% -13% -5% 77% 41% 6% 36%19 27% 13% -5% 3% 8% -1% -11%20 -1% 3% 9% 23% 63% -16% -9%21 -5% 4% 31% 23% -29% -13% 2%22 -31% -3% -3% 25% 110% -17% 18%23 7% 13% -21% 33% 21% 3% -37%
Mobile
Desktop
•http://bit.ly/1GwKN1Z
@danielgilbert44
• Free script available here: • http://selnd.com/1MT8P8d
Check your own data
@danielgilbert44
• AdWords is an auction
• 3rd party tools make 4 changes max
• Overall ROI increase of 67% for alpharooms
• http://bit.ly/1IcQDAF
RTB to position
@danielgilbert44
• Call centre demand changes
• 3rd party tools make 4 changes max
• Overall CR increase of 17% for Chill Insurance + 32% reduced spend
• http://bit.ly/1IcQDAF
Bid to respond to demand
@danielgilbert44
Stay Ahead
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@danielgilbert44 13
“There were over 1000 changes to AdWords last year” - Me, now
@danielgilbert44
• Released in Marin March 2014
• Accessible via OpenWeatherMap
• Overall Conversion increase of 14% for alpharooms
• http://bit.ly/1KEKGwc & http://bit.ly/1PMCVcO
Adjust bids based on the weather
@danielgilbert44
• Still not visible in most 3rd parties
• None ready for custom audiences
Bid for locations & audiences
@danielgilbert44
You are special. Why?
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@danielgilbert44
Learn about your business
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@danielgilbert44
Test and Learn
18Tim Harford - http://bit.ly/1RATBEt
@danielgilbert44 19
Element Keyword Level Optimisation Account Level Optimisation
Bid change decision Each keyword is bid according to its own value prediction.
Optimize target metric total for portfolio of keywords.
Ability to set portfolio level budget and efficiency constraints.
Total cost and target predicted for each keyword at different bid levels.
Rapid reaction to seasonal trends in data.
Longtail management Clustering algorithms used to create predictions for tail terms.
Mobile Can be optimised at AdGroup level
Data Requirements 10 conversions in 90 days1 conversion in last 7 days
10 conversions/day100 clicks/day
What about for algorithms?
@danielgilbert44 20
bid < (conversion rate) x (Max CPA)
bid > (conversion rate) x (Max CPA)
bid < (conversion rate) x (Max CPA)
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Example:
Bidding is pretty basic
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PID example
o Make your own lookback windows
oThese sample weights gives us a weighted predicted conversion rate of 13.5%
oTherefore, MaxCPC = Conversion Rate * MaxCPA = £5.40 * 13.5% = 73p
Conversion rate period7 Days 14 Days 30 Days
[pokemon meetups] 7% 14% 28%
Weighting 9% 90% 1%0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Look back period
Relative weighting
Choose your own lookback
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o For keywords without significant historical data our bespoke clustering algorithms group relevant keywords.
o Longtail terms such as [increase my pokemon collection anonymously] present a data problem.
o Use three-dimensional clustering for longtail terms. A simplistic illustration:
Data from campaign level – or product category
Data from behavioural clustering
Data from semantic clustering
Not enough data at keyword level
Make your own clusters
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Test weightingso We construct weightings across the different clustering dimensions.
o This table shows suggested weightings for the keyword [dkny dress for my lovie dovie].
Clusterdress dkny Semantic
(in/for)Conversation 8% 13% 2%
Sample weighting 15% 80% 5%
o Calculated weighted conversion rate: 17%
o MaxCPC = £7.80 * 17% = £1.360 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Look back period
Relative weighting
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The magic – A/B test it
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Clustering A
Look back period
Relative weight-
ing
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Clustering B
Look back period
Relative weight-
ing 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
PID Loop B
Look back period
Relative weight-
ing
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
PID Loop A
Look back period
Relative weight-
ing
http://selnd.com/1Chx7PH
@danielgilbert44 25
The magic – A/B test it
• I know I get better conversion rates in London but should I increase bids there?• Which is the best bid management software for me?• Am I using the best campaign structure?
• Is my PPC agency any good?
http://www.brainlabsdigital.com/brainlabs-tech-stack
