dammed if you do, damned if you dont

GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE AND THE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

5 JUNE 2008

PROFESSORS MARTIN FISCHER AND BEN SCHWEGLERNATHAN CHASE, VIVIEN CHUA, DAVID NEWELL Dammed if You Do,Damned if You Dont*Inundated areas resulting from 2m SLR http://flood.firetree.net/

*Introduction

How we got hereWith a little research and advice from the professors, putting together a basic dike design was fairly straightforward after that, I was hooked! Countless hours later, the design process continues Nathan Chase*

*Some striking resultsDavid NewellGravel shortages50+ years for China65+ years for India

*Some striking resultsVivien ChuaThe first step in reliable engineering design is modeling - we are closer to creating a better world!

Background and Need*

Coastal Development & PortsOver half of worlds population lives within 200km of the coast (UN, 2001)135% coastal pop. growth projected between 1995-2025 (Columbia U.)27.187 billion metric tons of seaborne trade in 2006 (AAPA)3*

Sea Level Rise Fact or Fiction?Model does not include future dynamical changes in ice flow*

Hurricane KatrinaHurricane AndrewNatural Disasters*

Cyclone Nargis*

Project Overview*

Project OverviewAnalyze coastal protection design alternativesQuantify current/projected capacity of design & construction industryModel the response using 2D/3D/4D tools and disseminate informationCompare capacity to what is needed*

Limited understanding of DCI capacityNo official statistics for USNatural disasters can cause significant impact (e.g., Hurricane Katrina/Rita)Difficulty in compiling global dataResources are allocated on a regional or national basis e.g. cranes, dredges, steel*

How to Protect PortsDefine the protection strategy and scopee.g. dikes, levees, landfill for port surfaceDevelop a minimum reasonable design for the scopeObtain cost data reflective of regional conditionsCompare the design and scope to global data on materials, weather, construction goods and services, etc.*

Why ports?Fixed infrastructure that cannot be relocated easilyHigh economic value, easy to measureClear baseline of what will be protectedData availabilitySimplifying assumption (difficulties with residential/commercial developments, undeveloped areas, etc.)*

Port Selection*1 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) is one 20-ft container (one 40-ft container = 2 TEUs)

Methodology for Case StudiesGoal: evaluate and strengthen project by performing detailed case studies in different regionsOverall procedure:Site identificationConceptual design alternatives evaluationSchematic design developmentIncorporation of results in overall projectTools have been developed to simplify the data collection and design element

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Current Status*

Current StatusPort CharacteristicsWorlds most important 177 ports, integrated into Google Earth*

Current StatusGIS model automatically determines:- Protection length- Average protection height*

Current StatusCost and availability/capacity data (US, Asia, Europe)RS MeansUNCountrywatchEtc.*

Current StatusCoastal Protection Design toolOffshore dike, navigation lock, pump station, maintenance dredging*

Long Beach Harbor a Case StudyManual design 10.5 miles long 25m high- Cost: $1693 millionTime to construct: 21.1 years

Model design 10 miles long 9m high- Cost: $712 million- Time to construct: 9.7 years*

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1 meter sea level rise predicted by 2100!!!*Sea level record at Golden Gate

Areas at risk in San Francisco BayGIS modeling2D hydrodynamic modeling

1 meter sea level rise http://flood.firetree.net*

Sacramento-San Joaquin deltaGolden Gate channelCalibration at NOAA station Golden Gate (9414290)*

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What if we do nothing? 2D hydrodynamic modeling Flooding risks Changes to circulation patterns Deterioration of water quality Disappearing habitats/ecosystems Modifications to sediment distributions*

Erosion of salt ponds & submerging tidal marshes Average depth of tidal marshes and salt ponds = 0.1 m1 m sea level rise*

Action plan: Partial intrusion barrage at Golden GateRegulate amount of sea water entering and leaving the baySea water entering bay as flood tide

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A tidal power barrage?Estimate of tidal power at Golden Gate

where = density of sea water = 1000 kg/m3, Q = flow rate, g = acceleration due to gravity = 9.81 m2/s, h = tidal amplitudeIn a neap-spring cycle, Max Q = 5000 m3/sMax h = 2 mMax P = 1x108W*

*Results

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Measuring our Results*

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Google Earth DemonstrationNetherlandsStanford/S.F. BaySan Pedro Bay (L.A.)Port CharacteristicsPort Polygons4D Model*

Future Directions*

Collaborations, Raising AwarenessNew collaborations in Netherlands, India, etc.Stanford Engineering & Public Policy Framework Project: Climate Change and its Impact on the Built EnvironmentWrite journal articlesMake GoogleEarth project data available*

Fall 2008 Undergrad/Grad Course3 unit CEE course, but need students in economics, public policy, computer scienceFocus: Principles & practices for designing a marine construction project, as applied to the Stanford Engineering Framework projectWeek 1: Introduction, project background, reading on case studies (Netherlands, Japan, Hurricane Katrina) Week 2: Marine Construction industry: equipment, materials, labor (guest lecturer from industry)Week 3: Site selection and characterization (guest lecture on coastal development)Week 4-6: Conceptual design (guest lecture) Week 7-9: Schematic design (guest lecture on hydrologic modeling)Week 10: Writing up and presenting results (in class presentations, final reports) Other elements: intensive collaboration session with students from Delft, Madras/Chennai*

AcknowledgementsFred Raichlen, California Institute of TechnologyKyle Johnson, Great Lakes Dredge & DockBob Bittner, Ben C. Gerwick Inc.Andrew Peterman, Walt Disney ImagineeringChris Holm, Walt Disney Co.Austin Becker, Rhode Island Sea GrantChristian Brockmann, Bremen University of Applied SciencesPrior Stanford students: Mike Dvorak, Lakshmi Alagappan, Evridiki Fekka, Elisa Zhang*

*Questions?

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