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Cyber threat data model High-level model and use cases Matthew Kellett DRDC – Ottawa Research Centre Melanie Bernier DRDC – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis Defence Research and Development Canada Reference Document DRDC-RDDC-2016-D080 December 2016

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Page 1: Cyber threat data model - Defence Research Reportscradpdf.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/PDFS/unc269/p805249_A1b.pdfCyber threat data model High-level model and use cases Matthew ... of supporting

Cyber threat data model High-level model and use cases

Matthew Kellett DRDC – Ottawa Research Centre Melanie Bernier DRDC – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis

Defence Research and Development Canada

Reference Document

DRDC-RDDC-2016-D080

December 2016

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IMPORTANT INFORMATIVE STATEMENTS

This document was produced as part of the Cyber Decision Making and Response project under the Cyber

Operations S&T portfolio.

Template in use: (2010) SR Advanced Template_EN (051115).dotm

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2016

© Sa Majesté la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale,

2016

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DRDC-RDDC-2016-D080 i

Abstract

As part of the Cyber Decision Making and Response project, Defence Research and Development

Canada (DRDC) is conducting research on threat characterization and investigating the feasibility

of supporting the generation and use of cyber intelligence within an automated computer network

defence construct. The purpose of this Reference Document is to take the high-level work done so

far on the characterization of threats and to put it in the context of a process for developing cyber

intelligence and potentially predicting future attacks based on those threats. Accordingly, a

high-level cyber threat data model is proposed that conceptually should allow us to bridge the gap

between defensive cyber operations and intelligence processes. Three applications of the model

are discussed: a reactive application that allows for the detection and assessment of attacks on our

network with the potential for attribution to previously unknown actors; a proactive application

that allows for the prediction of where future attacks may be targeted based on our understanding

of the intent of known actors; and an observational application that allows for the automation of

our computer network defences based on the observed traits of ongoing attacks.

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Résumé

Dans le cadre du projet Prise de décision et intervention en cybernétique, Recherche et

développement pour la défense Canada (RDDC) effectue des recherches sur la caractérisation de

la menace et étudie la possibilité de soutenir la production et l’utilisation du cyber-renseignement

dans le concept de défense automatisée des réseaux informatiques. Le présent document de

référence vise à utiliser le travail de haut niveau réalisé à ce jour sur la caractérisation de la

menace dans le cadre d’un processus de collecte du cyber-renseignement et de prévoir

éventuellement les attaques futures en fonction de ces menaces. Par conséquent, nous proposons

un modèle de données de haut niveau sur les cybermenaces qui nous permettrait, de manière

conceptuelle, de combler l’écart entre les cyberopérations défensives et les processus concernant

le renseignement. Trois applications de ce modèle sont examinées : une application réactive qui

permet de détecter et d’évaluer les attaques visant notre réseau et, éventuellement, de les attribuer

à des acteurs auparant inconnus; une application proactive qui permet de prévoir les cibles de

futures attaques en fonction de notre compréhension des intentions des acteurs connus; et une

application observationnelle qui permet l’automatisation des défenses de notre réseau

informatique en fonction des caractéristiques observées des attaques en cours.

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Table of contents

Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i

Résumé . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii

Table of contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii

List of figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv

List of tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.2 Cyber threat characterization framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

2 Cyber threat data model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

3 Use cases: Bottom-up and top-down . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

3.1 Bottom up: Generating cyber intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

3.2 Top down: Predicting future attacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Annex A Cyber threat characterization framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

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List of figures

Figure 1: Proposed cyber threat data model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Figure 2: The threat-driven segment (Statement 1) of the cyber threat data model. . . . . 4

Figure 3: The effect-driven segment (Statement 2) of the cyber threat data model. . . . . 4

Figure 4: The observational sub-model (Statement 3) of the cyber threat data model. . . . 4

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List of tables

Table 1: Potential mapping of the threat characterization framework to the data model. . 6

Table 2: Significant incident example record. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Table 3: Target example record. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Table 4: Adversary example record. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Table 5: Resource example record. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Table 6: Impact example record. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Table 7: Actor example record—FALLING WHALE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Table 8: Actor example record—SENTIENT PETUNIA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Table 9: Intent example record. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

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1 Introduction

1.1 Background

A research study on how to automate computer network defence for the Department of National

Defence / Canadian Armed Forces (DND/CAF) is currently being conducted by Defence

Research and Development Canada (DRDC) as part of the Cyber Decision Making and Response

(CDMR) S&T project. One of the main activities for this project is the Automated Computer

Network Defence (ARMOUR) technology demonstrator, which focuses on automating the

observe-orient-decide-act (OODA) loop. Concurrently, other parts of CDMR are researching and

developing proofs of concepts that will feed into network defence capabilities such as ARMOUR

and/or improve existing algorithms. In particular, the threat characterization and threat targets

components of the Metrics portion of CDMR look at how to support the generation and use of

cyber intelligence within an automated computer network defence construct. The purpose of this

Reference Document is to take the high-level work done so far on the characterization of threats

and put it in the context of a process for developing cyber intelligence on those threats and

potentially predicting future threats. The follow-on research carried out based on this high-level

model is aimed at informing the development of requirements for capital projects currently under

consideration by Director General Cyber (DG Cyber).

In this document, we look at existing work on identifying the elements required to characterize

cyber threats that was developed as part of a larger, recently completed literature review on

approaches to threat characterization and models. We then propose a high-level cyber threat data

model that conceptually should allow us to bridge the gap between defensive cyber operations

and intelligence processes. We discuss two applications of the model: a reactive application that

allows for the detection and assessment of attacks on our network, potentially with attribution to

previously unknown actors; and a proactive application that allows for the prediction of where

future attacks may be targeted based on our understanding of the intent of known actors.

1.2 Cyber threat characterization framework

DRDC recently contracted a literature review on approaches to characterizing and modeling

threats in the cyber environment [1]. The literature survey found that no single existing approach

addressed all the requirements that a cyber threat model would need to support the DND/CAF.

Based on existing literature, the report proposes a cyber threat characterization framework

[1, Section 5.0], which is summarized below and further outlined in Annex A. The framework,

which is partly based on existing work by DRDC [2], lays the initial foundation for threat

characterization and forms the basis for the cyber threat data model outlined in this document.

See the contract report [1] for more information on the characterization of threats in the cyber

environment, in general, and on the cyber threat characterization framework, specifically.

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The following top-level cyber threat characterization categories are taken from [1] (more detail in

Annex A and [1]):

Adversary ● Attack

○ Type ○ Delivery mechanisms

○ Motivation (hostile, non-hostile) ○ Tools

○ Commitment ○ Automation

○ Resources ○ Actions

Asset ● Effect

○ Profile ○ Cyber effects

○ Container ○ Effect on military activities

○ Vulnerability

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2 Cyber threat data model

The cyber threat characterization framework from [1] consists of only data elements, while the

data model that we propose here includes the relationships between those elements. The elements

and their relationships reflect the processes necessary to generate cyber intelligence and, taken to

their natural extreme, predict future attacks. The proposed cyber threat data model is outlined

visually in Figure 1. The threat (red line) versus the effect (blue line) distinguishes between two

segments of the model. The effect / blue part of the model at the lower right is the “what” part

that represents those aspects of an incident that can be directly observed on a network. These

effects can be real in that they have actually happened, or intended in that they were supposed to

happen. The threat / red part of the model at the upper left is the “who” part that represents what

an incident implies about the person or group that caused it and which may change over time as

our understanding of the threat changes.

Intelligence

Operations

SignificantIncident

Target Resource

Adversary Impact

IntentActor

Based on reporting

Based on observation

Threat

Effect

Intelligence Processes

Defensive Cyber Operations

Legend

Object

1 Many

ExternalProcess

Red

Blueis associated with

causing on

has to cause

oncomprised

of

intends to have

Figure 1: Proposed cyber threat data model.

The full cyber threat data model comprises a series of one-to-many relationships represented by

subsets of the model as expressed by the following statements and in Figures 2 and 3:

1. (Threat driven) An actor is associated with adversary(ies) causing significant incident(s) on

target(s).

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Significant Incident

Target Resource

Adversary Impact

IntentActoris associated with

causing on

has to cause

oncomprised

of

intends to have

Figure 2: The threat-driven segment (Statement 1) of the cyber threat data model.

2. (Effect driven) An actor has intent(s) to cause impact(s) on resource(s) comprised of

target(s).

Significant Incident

Target Resource

Adversary Impact

IntentActoris associated with

causing on

has to cause

oncomprised

of

intends to have

Figure 3: The effect-driven segment (Statement 2) of the cyber threat data model.

At the purely observational/operational subset of the model, these relationships are represented by

the following statement and in Figure 4:

3. (Observational) An adversary causing significant incident(s) on target(s) intends to have

impact(s) on resource(s) comprised of target(s).

Significant Incident

Target Resource

Adversary Impact

IntentActoris associated with

causing on

has to cause

oncomprised

of

intends to have

Figure 4: The observational sub-model (Statement 3) of the cyber threat data model.

We distinguish between the full model and the observational sub-model due to the classification

of the information likely to be associated with each. If the model is restricted to information that

comes only from defensive cyber operations being carried out on the network being monitored—

the observational sub-model—its information can be stored at the same classification as the

network. When intelligence reporting is added in the full model as part of integrating it with

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higher-level intelligence processes, the model’s information must then be stored at the maximum

classification of the reporting, which in most cases will be higher than that of the network. The

practical consequence of this difference is that the observational sub-model is likely to run in near

real time on the target network, while the full model is likely to pull a copy of the observational

sub-model to a high-side network periodically for human-in-the-loop processing.

Next we examine the three statements and the relationships they describe between the objects in

the model. The heart of all three statements is the significant incident-[on]-target(s) relationship.

A target can be any discrete part of a computer network infrastructure, including but not limited

to an internet protocol (IP) address. A significant incident is an attempt, usually malicious, to

compromise a target. Significant incidents can vary from malicious packets and phishing emails

sent to the target to malicious websites visited by the target that download malicious content.

In Statement 1, the threat-driven statement, an adversary is some external entity that is observed

causing significant incident(s) using tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) that are related.

An actor is known to be associated with an adversary(ies) based on intelligence reporting.

Because the actor-[is associated with]-adversary(ies) relationship is not based on observation,

there can be a large amount of uncertainty in the relationship. An adversary may meet the

reported characteristics of a number of actors, especially when a new adversary appears. The

certainty of the relationship must be captured and managed by the model. When new information

becomes available, the data model should allow for a new certainty to be assigned to the

relationship, while maintaining the history of previously recorded relationships and certainties.

In Statement 2, the effect driven statement, a resource-[is comprised of]-target(s). Where a target

is a tangible part of the computer network, a resource may be at any layer of the cyber

environment (geographical, physical network, logical network, cyber persona, persona). For

instance, a phishing email target may be the mail server, but the resource targeted can be the mail

server itself, the person to whom it is addressed, or the group to whom that person belongs. A

resource can be made up of other resources, but this type of abstraction should be reserved to

situations where it is clearly useful, such as linking together resources associated with an

otherwise disparate group (all the people on the same course getting phishing emails).

The consequences of a significant incident can lead to an impact-[on]-resource(s). An impact is

any observed, suspected, or intended result of a significant incident. For instance, the impact of a

phishing email incident could be the exfiltration of data from a resource. Even if the phishing

email incident is stopped from reaching its target, we can record that an exfiltration was the

intended impact of the significant incident. Intent is the desire of an actor to have certain impacts

and is based on intelligence reporting about the known or suspected goals of that actor. Based on

general intelligence reporting, the intent(s) of a particular actor can also be inferred from the

impacts that actor is having on the network and how related those results are to the actor’s known

goals. Note that the intent-[to cause]-impact(s) and actor-[has]-intent(s) relationships have the

same uncertainty as the actor-[is associated with]-adversary(ies) relationship discussed above and

will need to be managed by the model in a similar fashion.

In Statement 3, the observational statement, we short circuit the data model and depend only on

observed behaviour. We infer that an adversary-[intends to have]-impact(s). This relationship is

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useful for short term responses and may be useful in informing the determination of the

actor-[has]-intent(s) relationship in the full model.

Returning to the cyber threat characterization framework from [1], we show in Table 1 how the

categories from the framework might be matched up with the objects of the proposed cyber threat

data model. These proposed categories can be used to fill in the data required for each element of

the model.

Table 1: Potential mapping of the threat characterization framework to the data model.

Data Model Objects Threat Characterization Categories

Actor Adversary/Type

Adversary/Commitment

Adversary/Resources

Adversary Adversary/Motivation (non-hostile)

Attack / Delivery mechanisms

Attack/Tools

Attack/Automation

Significant Incident Attack/Actions

Intent Adversary/Motivation (hostile)

Effect / Cyber effects

Impact Effect / Effect on military activities

Resource Asset/Container

Asset/Vulnerability

Target Asset/Profile

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3 Use cases: Bottom-up and top-down

3.1 Bottom up: Generating cyber intelligence

We can use the full cyber threat data model to generate cyber intelligence from the bottom up. At

each step, we work our way backwards up the threat-driven and effect-driven statements to

determine the actor carrying out the attack and the intent of the attack. We present a simple

example here. The statements are adjusted to make them grammatical while still maintaining their

original meaning.

Let us consider a phishing email (significant incident) sent to a user’s mailbox (target). When

these “facts” are first entered into the model, they are assigned to the generic adversary and

generic resource, respectively. Each element of the model uses a generic version as a placeholder

while waiting for further information or processing, leading to the following statements:

1. (Threat driven) A generic actor is associated with a generic adversary causing a phishing

email incident on user A’s mailbox.

2. (Effect driven) A generic actor has generic intent to cause generic impact on a generic

resource comprised of user A’s mailbox.

3. (Observational) A generic adversary causing a phishing email incident on user A’s mailbox

intends to have generic impact on a generic resource comprised of user A’s mailbox.

We now walk through how the process might proceed using the proposed data model as new

information is discovered. We start with the heart of the model, the significant

incident-[on]-target relationship. In this simplified example, a spear-phishing email1 has arrived

in an employee’s mailbox.

Table 2: Significant incident example record.

Significant incident

Attack type Spear-phishing

Timestamp Yesterday, 5:35 EST

Originator sender2390842

Origin domain badmailserver.com

Origin IP 192.168.3.234

Payload Unknown (In forensics)

1 A phishing attack is an email campaign where the emails sent are designed to get a large number of

recipients to click on a malicious link or open a malicious attachment. A spear-phishing attack is a phishing

attack specifically designed to appeal to a single recipient or small group of recipients by using targeted and

believable information.

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Table 3: Target example record.

Target

Asset Mailbox

User Bloggins, J 234

Email [email protected]

Server exchange02.ourdomain.ca

Server IP 172.21.42.124

The forensics investigation is conducted and determines that the payload of the spear-phishing

email is a new virus. The purpose of the virus is to exfiltrate any documents on the target’s

computer related to specific keywords. An adversary is created to represent incidents that use this

version of the virus.

Table 4: Adversary example record.

Adversary

Attack vector / delivery mechanism Email

Distinguishing characteristic virus2353

A resource is created to represent the documents on the email recipient’s computer or computers

that contain the specific keywords.

Table 5: Resource example record.

Resource

Location Target recipient’s computers

Resource type Documents

Distinguishing info <virus2353 keywords>

An investigation of the target recipient determines that she is a scientist who recently travelled to

a conference where she presented her research related directly to the virus keywords. Luckily, she

was not fooled by the spear-phishing email and did not infect her computer. An impact is created

to represent the loss of information on the research topic.

Table 6: Impact example record.

Impact

Type Loss of information

Real or intended? Intended

Topic Research on <topic>

Significance Low

So far, all the information that has been generated in the model is based on observation. We can

use this for the observational subset of the model (i.e. Statement 3) and it can be held at the

classification of the network. The information generated so far can also be uploaded into a

higher-level environment, so that further analysis can be done on the full model.

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In the full model, an analyst looks at the adversary and intended impact. She may also look in

more detail at the forensics report and investigative report for additional information that may be

at a higher level of classification than the observational subset of the model. Based on her

analysis, she determines that there are two possible actors that could be behind the adversary.

Neither is known to be interested in the research topic, so this incident represents new behaviour.

She cannot distinguish between the two, so she adds both into the data model and a new intent to

learn information on the research topic.

Table 7: Actor example record—FALLING WHALE.

Actor

Intrusion set FALLING WHALE

Confidence level 50%

Table 8: Actor example record—SENTIENT PETUNIA.

Actor

Intrusion set SENTIENT PETUNIA

Confidence level 50%

Table 9: Intent example record.

Intent

Type Interception/Steal

Topic <topic>

Importance Low or unknown

If further incidents are attributed to the same adversary, it may lead to more information on

exactly which actor is responsible. In the meantime, the analyst can write an assessment to warn

that the research topic is now of interest to a state actor.

3.2 Top down: Predicting future attacks

We may also be able to predict future attacks on our networks by using the data model from the

top down approach. When we have reporting on actors and their strategic goals, we should be

able to use those to predict adversaries and targets in some cases.

For this section, we use the same example as in Section 3.1 but omit the tables. Working on the

higher side, the analyst may have learned from outside reporting that another country is now

interested in the research topic.

Let us say that it is the country associated with the threat actor known as FALLING WHALE.

The team behind FALLING WHALE is known to specialize in both phishing emails and the

exfiltration of data from target networks. The analyst can now create an adversary based on a

potential phishing email campaign and an impact based on the exfiltration of data on the research

topic.

Through an investigation, it is determined that a small group of researchers works on the research

topic. A resource is created to represent the group and their management. The targets associated

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with the resource are these employees’ mailboxes. Based on the top-down use of the model, these

mailboxes can now be watched for signs of phishing-emails and the researchers themselves can

be warned to be on the lookout for anything suspicious. When the targeted researcher gets the

email from the first example, the organization will already be prepared.

Let us now consider the generic statements about what we know:

1. (Threat driven) A known actor FALLING WHALE is associated with adversaries using

phishing emails that may intend to cause receipt of phishing emails in employees’

mailboxes.

2. (Effect driven) A known actor FALLING WHALE has known goal to gather information

on conference topic by causing exfiltration of data from conference attendees comprised of

employees’ mailboxes.

3. (Observational) An adversary using phishing emails may intend to cause receipt of phishing

emails in employees’ mailboxes and likely intends to exfiltrate data from conference

attendees comprised of employees’ mailboxes.

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4 Conclusion

We have taken inspiration from the cyber threat characterization framework [1] and developed a

cyber threat data model that can be used to connect defensive cyber operations with intelligence

operations. We have shown how data about attacks on targets can be transformed using the data

model into cyber intelligence from our networks. We have also shown how reporting on actors

and their intent can be used to predict future attacks and close the gap between attacks and

attribution.

Before we can integrate the data model into automated computer network defence capabilities,

there are a number of challenges that need to be addressed. We need to further develop the details

of the data model as well as the procedures required to take advantage of the model’s

probabilistic and predictive abilities. Finally, we need to develop scenarios or use existing ones to

test the completeness of the detailed model and the effectiveness of its related procedures for

handling real world situations.

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References

[1] Magar, A. (2016), State-of-the-Art in Cyber Threat Models and Methodologies

(DRDC-RDDC-2016-C132), Sphyrna Security, Kanata, Ontario.

[2] Bernier, M. (2013), Military Activities and Cyber Effects (MACE) Taxonomy

(DRDC CORA TM 2013-226), Defence Research & Development Canada – Centre for

Operational Research and Analysis.

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Annex A Cyber threat characterization framework

The cyber threat characterization framework proposed in [1, Section 5.1]. Cyber threat is broken

down into Adversary, Attack, Asset, and Effect.

Adversary o Type

Script kiddies, newbies, novices Hacktivists, political activists Cyber punks, crashers, thugs Insiders, user malcontents Insider/outside collusion Coders, writers Black hat hackers, professionals, elite Cyber terrorists Nation-states

o Motivation Hostile

Ideological

Financial

Revenge

Ego

Psychotic

Coercion Non-hostile

Mistakes

Errors

Omissions o Commitment

Intensity Stealth Time

o Resources Personnel Knowledge Access

Attack o Delivery mechanisms

Local access Remote delivery Distributed delivery Social engineering

o Tools Physical attack Information exchange User command Script or program Autonomous agent Tool Distributed tool Data tap

o Automation Automatic Semi-automatic Manual

o Actions

Probe Scan Flood Authenticate Bypass Spoof Read Copy Steal Modify Delete

Asset

o Profile

Features Quality Characteristics Value

o Container

Hardware

Workstations

Servers

Network devices

Storage devices

Mobile devices Software

Applications

Operating systems

Virtual images Objects

Paper People

Employees

Partners

Contractors

o Vulnerability

Previously known

Design

Implementation

Configuration Previously unknown

Design

Implementation

Configuration

Effect

o Cyber effects

Interruption Modification Degradation Fabrication Interception

o Effect on military activities

Deny Degrade Disrupt Destroy Digital espionage

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DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA (Security markings for the title, abstract and indexing annotation must be entered when the document is Classified or Designated)

1. ORIGINATOR (The name and address of the organization preparing the document.

Organizations for whom the document was prepared, e.g., Centre sponsoring a

contractor's report, or tasking agency, are entered in Section 8.)

DRDC – Ottawa Research Centre Defence Research and Development Canada 3701 Carling Avenue Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0Z4 Canada

2a. SECURITY MARKING (Overall security marking of the document including

special supplemental markings if applicable.)

UNCLASSIFIED

2b. CONTROLLED GOODS

(NON-CONTROLLED GOODS) DMC A REVIEW: GCEC DECEMBER 2013

3. TITLE (The complete document title as indicated on the title page. Its classification should be indicated by the appropriate abbreviation (S, C or U) in

parentheses after the title.)

Cyber threat data model: High-level model and use cases

4. AUTHORS (last name, followed by initials – ranks, titles, etc., not to be used)

Kellett, M.; Bernier, M.

5. DATE OF PUBLICATION

(Month and year of publication of document.)

December 2016

6a. NO. OF PAGES

(Total containing information,

including Annexes, Appendices,

etc.)

22

6b. NO. OF REFS

(Total cited in document.)

2

7. DESCRIPTIVE NOTES (The category of the document, e.g., technical report, technical note or memorandum. If appropriate, enter the type of report,

e.g., interim, progress, summary, annual or final. Give the inclusive dates when a specific reporting period is covered.)

Reference Document

8. SPONSORING ACTIVITY (The name of the department project office or laboratory sponsoring the research and development – include address.)

DRDC – Ottawa Research Centre Defence Research and Development Canada 3701 Carling Avenue Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0Z4 Canada

9a. PROJECT OR GRANT NO. (If appropriate, the applicable research

and development project or grant number under which the document

was written. Please specify whether project or grant.)

05ac

9b. CONTRACT NO. (If appropriate, the applicable number under

which the document was written.)

10a. ORIGINATOR’S DOCUMENT NUMBER (The official document

number by which the document is identified by the originating

activity. This number must be unique to this document.)

DRDC-RDDC-2016-D080

10b. OTHER DOCUMENT NO(s). (Any other numbers which may be

assigned this document either by the originator or by the sponsor.)

11. DOCUMENT AVAILABILITY (Any limitations on further dissemination of the document, other than those imposed by security classification.)

Unlimited

12. DOCUMENT ANNOUNCEMENT (Any limitation to the bibliographic announcement of this document. This will normally correspond to the

Document Availability (11). However, where further distribution (beyond the audience specified in (11) is possible, a wider announcement

audience may be selected.))

Unlimited

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13. ABSTRACT (A brief and factual summary of the document. It may also appear elsewhere in the body of the document itself. It is highly desirable that

the abstract of classified documents be unclassified. Each paragraph of the abstract shall begin with an indication of the security classification of the

information in the paragraph (unless the document itself is unclassified) represented as (S), (C), (R), or (U). It is not necessary to include here abstracts in

both official languages unless the text is bilingual.)

As part of the Cyber Decision Making and Response project, Defence Research and

Development Canada (DRDC) is conducting research on threat characterization and

investigating the feasibility of supporting the generation and use of cyber intelligence within an

automated computer network defence construct. The purpose of this reference document is to

take the high-level work done so far on the characterization of threats and to put it in the context

of a process for developing cyber intelligence and potentially predicting future attacks based on

those threats. Accordingly, a high-level cyber threat data model is proposed that conceptually

should allow us to bridge the gap between defensive cyber operations and intelligence

processes. Three applications of the model are discussed: a reactive application that allows for

the detection and assessment of attacks on our network with the potential for attribution to

previously unknown actors; a proactive application that allows for the prediction of where

future attacks may be targeted based on our understanding of the intent of known actors; and an

observational application that allows for the automation of our computer network defences

based on the observed traits of ongoing attacks.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dans le cadre du projet Prise de décision et intervention en cybernétique, Recherche et

développement pour la défense Canada (RDDC) effectue des recherches sur la caractérisation

de la menace et étudie la possibilité de soutenir la production et l’utilisation du

cyber-renseignement dans le concept de défense automatisée des réseaux informatiques. Le

présent document de référence vise à utiliser le travail de haut niveau réalisé à ce jour sur la

caractérisation de la menace dans le cadre d’un processus de collecte du cyber-renseignement et

de prévoir éventuellement les attaques futures en fonction de ces menaces. Par conséquent, nous

proposons un modèle de données de haut niveau sur les cybermenaces qui nous permettrait, de

manière conceptuelle, de combler l’écart entre les cyberopérations défensives et les processus

concernant le renseignement. Trois applications de ce modèle sont examinées : une application

réactive qui permet de détecter et d’évaluer les attaques visant notre réseau et, éventuellement,

de les attribuer à des acteurs auparant inconnus; une application proactive qui permet de prévoir

les cibles de futures attaques en fonction de notre compréhension des intentions des acteurs

connus; et une application observationnelle qui permet l’automatisation des défenses de notre

réseau informatique en fonction des caractéristiques observées des attaques en cours.

14. KEYWORDS, DESCRIPTORS or IDENTIFIERS (Technically meaningful terms or short phrases that characterize a document and could be helpful

in cataloguing the document. They should be selected so that no security classification is required. Identifiers, such as equipment model designation,

trade name, military project code name, geographic location may also be included. If possible keywords should be selected from a published thesaurus,

e.g., Thesaurus of Engineering and Scientific Terms (TEST) and that thesaurus identified. If it is not possible to select indexing terms which are

Unclassified, the classification of each should be indicated as with the title.)

threat; cyber operations; data model; threat characterisation; threat model; intelligence processes; cyber intelligence; defensive cyber operations