Current Approaches to Drought Vulnerability and Impact assessment

Experiences from risk monitoring work (GAR) and reviews of progress against the Hyogo Framework for Action

John A. Harding

UN Relations and Coordination Officer HMNDP – Towards Drought Resilient Societies, 12 March 2013

Drought risk assessment

!  What for?

!  Current status in assessments !  Drought hazard !  Drought losses

!  Looking ahead !  Modelling drought risk !  and climate change?

Risk assessment - what for?

1. Drought risk models – accounting for drought losses and impact

2. Ongoing monitoring of drought risk through observations (climate, remote sensing, food prices...)

3. Assessing drought impacts, number of households affected etc..

!  Identifying risk drivers !  Building political and economic imperatives !  Prioritising long-term investments !  Short-term resilience measures

!  Early warning !  Preparing communities and institutions

!  Defining response measures !  Recovery loss, damages and needs

Risk Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability

Expected frequency of occurrence of different intensities and types of threats (e.g. cyclones, floods, earthquakes,…) for a specific area.

Equation of risk

Hazard

Exposure

Vulnerability

The probability of “potential losses” for some particular cause, place and period.

People, assets, present in the hazard area.

Percentage of exposure losses should an event of a specific type and severity occur (varies between 0 and 1). Also includes coping capacity.

Calibrated using past disasters

Modelled based on physical and geographical datasets

Population or assets as extracted using GIS.

To be identified using multiple regression analysis.

Risk based tool for planning

Extensive Intensive

Drought hazard assessment - challenges

!  Global standards for measuring drought risk slowly being introduced

!  Difficulties regarding data collection

!  Impact of drought only partly attributed to deficient or erratic rainfall. Drought risk constructed over time by a range of other drivers

(Drought typologies, NDMC, Wilhite)

Agricultural drought intensity from 2001 to 2010

!  Agricultural drought intensity over ten years

An incomplete picture of drought losses and impacts

!  EM-DAT: Public domain coverage of large-scale mortality.

Weak coverage of smaller disasters. Inconsistent reporting of economic loss.

!  NAT-CAT and SIGMA: Re-insurance industry databases. Insured losses in developed markets.

!  ECLAC methodology evaluations: comprehensive data for selected large disasters

!  National data: heterogeneous, dispersed and inaccessible data held by governments, NGOs, universities and others.

HFA P.A. 2: Systematically account for disaster losses

Mozambique drought losses

!  Regularly compiled by INGC (Instituto Nacional de Gestao de Catastrofes)

Agricultural drought losses and impact

!  Loss exceedance curve showing the expected loss in maize production (in percentage) and its correspondent probability of occurrence (Mozambique)

!  Estimated likelihood of drought occurrence in Niger

Agricultural drought losses and impact

A risk based approach to drought management and climate change adaptation

More common risk assessment methodologies

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Observed and projected changes in rainfall and temperature from 1975 to 2025 in Kenya

Main messages

"  National drought policies require strong risk information basis to be effective

"  Currently risk information on drought is fragmented and not sufficiently linked to decision making

"  Probabilistic models of agricultural drought risk are now providing clearer picture of potential crop losses

"  Better understanding of drought likelihood, food production losses and risks to natural capital and social sectors would encourage informed investments by the agribusiness sector and effective public policy decisions by governments

THANK YOU

www.unisdr.org www.preventionweb.net

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