cuba rice exports negative - hss 2013.docx

8/14/2019 Cuba Rice Exports Negative - HSS 2013.docx

1/71

***Cuba Rice NegHSS***


2/71

***Notes

--When going for the politics DA against a team that uses OFAC as its agent, there are very good cards in

the Waiver CP file that that agent still links to politics.

--The net benefit to the exports CP is any reason that the embargo is goodsustainable ag and the

other disads that are included in the broader embargo neg

The US is the 12th rice producing country in the world. It produces 8.3 million metric tons compared to

China (202.6), India (155.7), Indonesia (65.7), Bangladesh (50.7), Vietnam (42.3).

Globally, a total of 678 million tons of rice were produced in 2009.

FYI

Sullivan, 12("Cuba: Issues for the 112th Congress", Mark P. is a Latin American Specialist , November

6, Congressional Research Service, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41617.pdf)

While the 111th Congress did not complete action on the FY2011 Financial Services and General

Government Appropriations measure, it approved a series of short-term continuing resolutions and then

in April 2011 ultimately approved a full-year measure (P.L. 112-10) under conditions provided in enacted

FY2010 appropriations measures. This continued the payment of cash in advance provision through

FY2011. Several additional legislative initiatives introduced in the 111th Congress would have

permanently made this change, but no action was completed on these measures. H.R. 4645 (Peterson),

reported out of the House Agriculture Committee in June 2010, in addition to addressing travel

restrictions, would have permanently changed the definition of payment of cash in advance and would

have allowed direct transfers between U.S. and Cuban financial institutions for payment for products

sold to Cuba under TSRA.


3/71

Case


4/71

Rice Advantage


5/71

1NC Rice Advantage

1. The US cannot compete with other rice Latin America markets prefer

foreign product

Burgess, 13 ("Rice farmers face challenges in global market", July 7, Richard is the bureau chief

theadvocate.com/news/6357825-123/rice-farmers-face-challenges-in)

While farmers cater to changing consumer demands, the rice industry is also working to

compete in an ever-changing global marketplace. Linscombe said about 45 percent of U.S.

rice is exported, mostly to Mexico and other Latin American countries. But that market

could be threatened by large Asian producers and by a concern by Latin American

buyers over the quality of U.S. rice, said Michael Creed, with Houston-based rice

brokerage Creed Rice Company. We continue to have complaints from this destination

(Latin America) in terms of quality, Creed told farmers who gathered for the annual field day

forum. Its a growing problem, not only in Latin America, and we are starting to see it

in other areas as well. Linscombe said the quality concerns are over such issues as texture

and how the rice cooks, characteristics where there has been a trade off in the effort to produce

higher rice yields. U.S. rice used to be the standard for quality. We are no longer there, he

said.

2. Their 1AC evidence concludes alt causes to insecurity

Smith, 98(FOOD SECURITY AND POLITICAL STABILITY

IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGIONPaul is a Research Fellow of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies,

, 9/11, http://www.apcss.org/Publications/Report_Food_Security_98.html)

The third session of the seminar looked toward the future. Presenters were asked to identify potential

future challenges to food security in the Asia-Pacific region. Once again, the responses fell into two basic

categories: challenges related to the availability of food and challenges related to access to food.

Challenges to Availability of Food Several seminar participants noted that population growth

in Asia will continue to be a major challenge to food security. Although growth rates areslowing down, the regions population is expected to continue rising well into the 21st Century. For

instance, by the year 2010, Chinas population is expected to rise to 1.347 billion from 1.200

billion(in 1995); Indias will rise to 1.127 billion from 929 million; and Indonesias will rise to 235 million

from 193 million.24Simultaneously, Asias population is expected to become increasingly

urban. By the year 2000, the world will have 20 cities with a population of 10 million or more and Asia
http://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htm


6/71

will be the home of 12 of these cities. For this reason, some international agencies are concerned

that growing urbanization may lead to greater food insecurity, as the millions of people who

flock to cities fail to find jobs or other resources that would enable them to purchase adequate food.25

Another future challenge to food security in the Asia-Pacific region is the ratio of the

regions population to its amount of arable land. As one seminar participant noted, "Asia hasa much larger fraction of the worlds population than of its arable land." China has 22

percent of the worlds population but only nine percent of its arable land.26Chinas arable land

decreased from .10 hectares per capita in 1980 to .08 hectares per capita in 1994. Arable land in other

Asian countries is also disappearing at an alarming pace. In India, for instance, arable land decreased

from .25 hectares per capita in 1980 to .19 hectares per capita in 1994; Indonesia had .18 hectares per

capita in 1980 compared with .16 hectares in 1994. Other Asian countries that have experienced

proportional declines in the amount of arable land within the past 18 years include: North Korea, South

Korea, Laos, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, and

Bangladesh.27Cropland is also being lost to erosion or other forms of degradation or conversion to non-

farm uses.28By the year 2030, Asia is expected to have eight or nine times as many people per acre of

cropland as North America.29This limitation is likely to place more pressure on Asian farmers to

increase crop yields substantially. Water shortages were also identified as a potential food

security challenge. Water is a key determinant of crop yields.In Asia, there are serious

questions about the future availability of water. Many countriesin the region are already

facing significant water scarcity issues. One study that examined the availability of water from a

global perspective concluded that "water availability will be a serious constraint to achieving the food

requirements projected for 2025. The need for irrigation water is likely to be greater than

currently anticipated, and the available supply of it less than anticipated."30Other studies have

suggested that a larger proportion of water supplies in the future will be devoted to

domestic and industrial usesat the expense of agriculture. Thus, "rapid growth in water

demand, coupled with escalating costs of development of new water sources, could be a serious threat

to future growth in food production, especially if it requires meeting household and industrial water

demand through water savings from irrigated agriculture."31In China, water constraints seriously

threaten food security; more than 70 of Chinas grain is produced on irrigated land. But the water

intended for irrigation is increasingly being depleted by three major trends: the diversion of water from

rivers and reservoirs to cities, the depletion of underground water supplies in aquifers, and the impact

of growing pollution caused by industrialization.32Another challengefor the Asia-Pacific region in

the future is likely to be the climate. Several participants noted that the climateand particularly

climate stabilityis a key determinant of future food security.In recent years, the

importance of climate stability has become more apparent in the wake of the

devastating effects of the recent El Nino weather phenomenon. Agricultural experts

generally agree that food security and climate change are inextricably linked. Consequently,

there is great concern about the potential effects of climate change. The most immediate effectsof
http://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-16-30.htm


7/71

climate change on food production will involve changes in temperature, precipitation, length

of the growing season, and changes in C02 concentration. Viewing climate change from a

global perspective, one study has suggested that "climate change will not pose a serious threat to global

food production by 2020, but longer term implications for world agriculture, and even more so for

individual regions, are highly uncertain."33Most studies regarding the Asia-Pacific region suggest that

the impact of climate change on food production will be mixed. Indeed, in some cases production

increases can be expected. However, climate change may also result in negative changes, such

as increased or new strains of diseases, pests, and weeds. One international study indicates

that climate change impacts on rice yield, wheat yield, and sorghum yield "suggest that any increase in

production associated with CO2 fertilization will be more than offset by reductions in yield from

temperature or moisture changes."34An effective policy response to climate change might include

research into heat-resistant and low-water-using crops.35Ironically, Asia-Pacific countries might

contribute to climate change if they seek to increase food production by expanding areas of land under

cultivation. One of the most harmful collateral effects of such an initiative may be deforestation. As one

writer has observed: "the fact remains that poor people in developing countries will continue to chopdown forests and kill wildlife to consume the calories they need to survive and prosper."36

Deforestation has been identified as a contributor to global warming because growing trees sequester

carbon from the CO2 in the air, a major greenhouse gas. Increasing quantities of greenhouse gases have

been identified as factors in climate change. Throughout Asia, deforestation is a major problem. For

example, in Thailand, forest cover has shrunk from 55% to 28% during the period from 1961 to 1988.37

Similarly, in Cambodia roughly half of the forests have been felled within the past twenty years.38The

same trends, unfortunately, can be seen throughout the region. Apart from climate change, other

environmental influences on crop production are uncertain. Currently, many East Asian

countries suffer from moderate to serious environmental degradation. Some analysts havesuggested that such environmental degradation could negatively influence food production. In China,

for instance, some have speculated that widespread air pollution might have a negative

impact on crop production.But as Vaclav Smil has observed, "particulates and sulfur dioxide cause

relatively little damage to crops. Most of the yield losses are seen in suburban vegetable farms."39The

impact of water pollution on food production and cultivation seems to be more clear

and negative,however. A relatively recent survey of more than 900 major rivers in China found that

more than 80% were polluted to some degree, and 20% were so badly polluted that

their water could not be used for irrigation.40Water pollution in China has also negatively

affected fish catches and the shrimp aquaculture industry.41Challenges to Food Access As discussed

earlier, availability of adequate food is one matter; access to this food is quite another.

Due to the presence of international markets as a "food provider of last resort," some

participants believed that the real challenge to food security lies not in food availability,

but rather on access to food. Participants described several challenges to food accessibility, the

most important of which dealt with relative purchasing power and the role of international markets.
http://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htm


8/71

Manyseminar participants listed poverty as a major threat to food security in the Asia-

Pacific region.As one participant noted, "when people dont have incomes, they cant buy

enough food."Undernutrition in many of Asias low-income countries has been attributed to

insufficient purchasing power among the poorer segments of the population.42Many poor countries do

not grow enough food to be self-sufficient and given their poverty, they are unable to import food tomake up for the deficit. Related to this phenomenon is the observation, made during the seminar, that

agriculture is more important as an employer (and hence provider of income) than it is as a supplier of

food. Given the strong link between poverty and food insecurity, Asias dynamic

economic growthprior to July 1997was probably a major factor in mitigating food

security problems. In contrast, the economic crisis that has spread throughout the region since July

1997 has resulted in greater poverty and has, in many areas, undermined food security.

3. The only internal link to food security is open markets but their 1ACevidence concludes that protectionist policies inhibit free trade

ERS, 11(Price Spikes in Global Rice Markets Benefit US Growers, 2/18, Economic Research Service of

the U.S. Department of Agriculture, http://www.thecropsite.com/articles/762/price-spikes-in-global-

rice-markets-benefit-us-growers#sthash.wDIzUbCj.dpuf)

High yields, ample acreage, consistent high quality, and year-round stocks allow the US to be one of the few consistently reliable suppliers of rice in the global

market. US rice exporters are able to rapidly boost shipment levels during periods of tight supplies and high prices. But these price spikes bring

only short-term benefits to US rice producers; the increased sales volumes can be lost

once prices fall to more normal levels. Long-term growthin the quantity of US rice exported

is hamperedby highly protectionist policies on the part of importers . Protectionist Policies Contribute

to Thin Rice Markets Protectionist policies, common in Asia, ban or sharply limit imports to protect

domestic growers and promote self-sufficiency.Asiasprotectionist policies reflect the

importance of rice in consumers diets and the lack of a viable substitutein production or

consumption. The region accounts for almost 90 per cent of global rice production and

consumption. In addition, manyof these countries have experienced significant food shortages,

such as Indonesia and the Philippines in the mid-1960s, often caused by political crises and adverse weather, making food security an

important public goal.

4. No impact food insecurity and its inevitable

OECD, 11("Price Volatility in Food and Agricultural Markets: Policy Responses", Organization for

Economic Cooperation and Development, Collaborative report undertaken by the FAO, IFAD, IMF, OECD,

UNCTAD, WFP, the World Bank, WTO, IFPRI and UN HLTF, June, www.oecd.org/trade/agricultural-

trade/48152638.pdf)
http://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htmhttp://www.apcss.org/Publications/food-ftnt-30-45.htm


9/71

Most agricultural commodity markets are characterized by a high degree of volatility.

Three major market fundamentals explain why that is the case. First, agricultural output varies

from period to period because of natural shocks such as weather and pests. Second,

demand elasticities are relatively small with respect to price and supply elasticities are

also low, at least in the short run. In order to get supply and demand back into balance after a supplyshock, prices therefore have to vary rather strongly, especially if stocks are low. Third, because

production takes considerable time in agriculture, supply cannot respond much to price

changes in the short term, though it can do so much more once the production cycle is

completed. The resulting lagged supply response to price changes can cause cyclical

adjustments(such as the often referenced hog cycle) that add an extra degree of variability

to the markets concerned. Business cycle fluctuations in demand for agricultural non-food

commodities (such as cotton) from rapidly growing, industrializing economies may also be contributing

to increased volatility.

5. Resource wars are wont escalate

Homer-Dixon, 8 (Thomas,- Chair of Peace and Conflict Studies at the Trudeau Centre for Peace and

Conflict Studies at the University. of Toronto. "Oil, Oil, Toil and Trouble."The National Interest

January /February, edition)

Rather, we argue that resource stress always interacts in complex conjunction with a host of other

factors--ecological, institutional, economic and political--

to cause mass violence. Also,

causation is almostalways indirect. People, groups and countries rarely fight over natural resources directly; instead,resource stress causes various forms of social dislocation--including widening gaps between rich and poor, increased rent-seeking by elites, weakening of states and

deeper ethnic cleavages--that, in turn, make violence more likely. And, finally, this violence is almost alwayssub-national; it takes the form

of insurgency, rebellion, gangsterism and urban criminality, not overt interstate war. The claim that resource stress is sufficient

by itself to cause violence is easily refuted. One simply has to identify cases where resource stress was

present but violence didn't occur. Likewise, the claim that resource stress is a necessary cause of violence is easily refuted by finding cases ofviolence not preceded by resource stress. At various points in his arti cle, Victor uses exactly these strategies to debunk the link between resources and war.

6. No East Asian war

Vannarith, 10("Asia Pacific Security Issues: Challenges and Adaptive Mechanism", Chheang is the

executive director of the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace,

www.cicp.org.kh/download/CICP%20Policy%20brief/CICP%20Policy%20brief%20No%203.pdf )

It is understandable that China is struggling to break the so-called containment strategy imposed by the

US since the post Cold War. Whether this tendency can lead to the greater strategic division is still
http://www.cicp.org.kh/download/CICP%20Policy%20brief/CICP%20Policy%20brief%20No%203.pdfhttp://www.cicp.org.kh/download/CICP%20Policy%20brief/CICP%20Policy%20brief%20No%203.pdfhttp://www.cicp.org.kh/download/CICP%20Policy%20brief/CICP%20Policy%20brief%20No%203.pdf


10/71

unknown. Nevertheless, many observers agree that whatever changes may take place, a multi-

polar world and multilateralism prevail. The reasons or logics supporting multilateralism are

mainly based on the fact that no one country can really address the security issues embedded with

international dimension, no one country has the capacity to adapt and adopt to new changes alone, and

it needs cooperation and coordination among the nation states and relevant stakeholders including the

private sector and civil societies. Large scale interstate war or armed conflict is unthinkable in

the region due to the high level of interdependency and democratization. It is believed that

economic interdependency can reduce conflicts and prevent war. Democracy can lead to

more transparency, accountability, and participation that can reduce collective fears and create more

confidence and trust among the people in the region. In addition, globalism and regionalism are

taking the center stage of national and foreign policy of many governments in the region

except North Korea. The combination of those elements of peace is necessary for peace

and stabilityin the region and those elements are present and being improved in this region. Lets

take a step back and reflect on the strategic challenges caused by the rising China and falling US. Chinaand US can be regarded as the two main strategic competitors for regional influence but at the same

time both countries also improve their bilateral strategic partnership and cooperation. They believe that

only through such partnership the region can stay in peace and development. China and US cannot

be separated given the two countries are so much interconnected and interdependent

on each others. US is still the main market for Chinese export while China is the main

recipient of US ForeignDirect Investment.


11/71

2NC EXT Alt causes to global rice market

There are alternative causes to the industry ---

a. Import tariffs

Dorosh and Wailes, 10("The international rice trade: structure, conduct, and performance", Paul is

director of the Development Strategy and Governance Division at the International Food Policy

Research Institute and Eric is Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of

Arkansas, Chapter 3 of "Rice in the Global Economy: Stategic Research and Policy Issues for Food

Security", books.irri.org/9789712202582_content.pdf)

Implications of world trade reforms Trade liberalization in rice is also viewed as an additional means by

which to achieve price stabilization and improve food security in the world food markets (McCalla and

Nash 2007). Despite being a basic staple food for over one-half of the worlds population,

international rice trade encounters some of the most protectionist trade policies. Trademeasures are pursued to achieve domestic food security and other multifunctional

public goodsin many countries. Among the most important barriers are import tariffs, which for

rice are among the highest of all agricultural commodities. Dimaranan et al (2007) report that

the estimated average applied tariff rate was highest for rice among all agricultural and

food productsat 36.4%; processed dairy products had the second highest average applied tariff rate

at 19.4%. Disaggregating by rice type, the global trade-weighted average applied tariffs on

medium-grain and long-grain ricein 2000 were estimatedby Wailes (2004b) to be 217% and

21%, respectively. Other border measures commonly used to distort rice trade, such as import

quotas and import bans, are described in greater detail in FAO Trade Policy Briefs and Technical Notes

(FAO 2005a, b).

b. Alterations in Chinese policy

Cui, 13("China Rice Imports Unsettle Market", Carolyn is a reporter for the Wall Street Journal,

online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323706704578228052284001608.html)

In the global rice market, a big and surprising buyer has emerged: China.

For decades, China's booming rice production enabled it to sell far more rice than it bought. But the

world's biggest consumer of the grain has become a major importer. Enlarge Image image Agence

France-Presse/Getty Images Shoppers in Hefei, China, buying rice. Some analysts say that demand for

rice is outpacing supply, a trend that would keep prices high. In 2012, the country bought a record 2.6

million tons of milled rice, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That was a sharp


12/71

acceleration of a trend started in 2011, when China bought 575,000 tons. China had been a net importer

of rice in just four of the previous 50 years. The move has caused confusion and debate within

the rice industryas analysts and traders try to determine the reason behind the sudden demand and

what it may mean for food prices and the global economy. Some analysts said they believe the buying

spree is being driven by soaring demand from Chinese consumers. They say that even though China has

bolstered production for nine years in a row, it isn't enough to feed its population. If true, the

purchases may be the beginning of a major, enduring shift in the global rice market. They

say this could spark worries about whether there is enough of the staple to go around,

keeping prices elevated."If this year's pace continues, the concern is whether the rest of

the world will be able to make up for the shortage of China's rice demand," said Cheng

Fang, a senior economist at the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization, or FAO. [image]

Others suggestthere is a simpler reason. They say prices for rice set by the Chinese

government are much higher than equivalent grades on the global market. That is

creating a profitable trade for Chinese buyerswho scoop up the rice from places such asVietnam, Pakistan and India and then sell it at higher prices at home. The trade has become more

profitable in recent months. In mid-December, the average import cost for Vietnamese rice was about

$410 a ton, and similar rice could be sold in China for about $635 a ton, traders said. "You've essentially

got two split markets," where farmers sell to the government but consumers buy from overseas, said

Thomas Pugh, a commodities economist at Capital Economics, a London-based research firm. As a

result, a lot of the government-purchased rice has been stockpiled, instead of being processed and

consumed, he said. Once the price gap narrows, the imports will fall back. Whichever argument is

correct has big implications for rice prices. If the demand is driven by rising

consumption, the shift could propel rice prices higher over the next few years ordecades, analysts said. If the purchases are a response to government pricing policies, it

could leave global prices vulnerable should those policies reverse.


13/71

2NC EXT Alt causes to food insecurity

Alt causes to global insecurity

a. China and India

Mohanty, 13("Game changers in the global rice market", Samarendu is the Associate Director, Cotton

Economics Research Institute, Texas Tech University. And

, July 1, irri.org/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=12614:game-changers-in-the-global-rice-

market&lang=en)

On the positive side, the greater participation of China and India in the rice marketis likely to

increase the volume of trade, thus making the market more stable. Ideally,the global rice market should

account for 1520% of total production compared with 68% now. On the other hand, both countries

will bring greater uncertainty to the market as their politicians will continue to fiddlewith domestic and trade policies to support farmers and achieve greater domestic price

stability, and in the process bring volatilityrice facts 3 copy to the international market.

Indias export ban in 2007 on nonbasmati rice and its repercussions on the global

market is a good example of how these countries can adversely influence the market.

Similarly, Thailand has held the global market hostage through its rice pledging scheme, for which

nobody knows how and when the mortgage stocks will rock the market. In addition, the disparity in

the estimates of Chinese supply and use data by two major sources(USDA and FAO) is

likely to create problems in the functioning of the marketif China remains in the global rice

market as a dominant player for the long haul. For example, FAO projects Chinese rice stocks to

be more than 50% greater than those of USDA in 2012-13(94.2 million tons vs 46.2 million

tons). In the past 3 years, the FAO estimates indicate more than a 20-million-ton rise in Chinese stocks

compared with only 6 million tons in the case of USDA. The difference in domestic consumption

between USDA and FAO estimates for China is more than 10 million tons. All these disparities in

supply and use data did not really matter as long as China was mostly self-sufficient and

didnt trade much. But, accuracy and timely availability of this information will be essential

for proper functioning of the market once China becomes a dominant player in the

global rice market.

b. Climate


Economic Cooperation and Development, Collaborative report undertaken by the FAO, IFAD, IMF, OECD,


14/71


trade/48152638.pdf)

Climatic factors have indisputably contributed to the price rises in 2007/2008 and again

in 2010.In 2008, an already tight market situation for wheat was aggravated by drought in Australia,

which is an important supplier of wheat to world markets. Canada, another important supplier, also

experienced weather related low yields for several crops. More recently, drought followed by fire in

the Russian Federation, fears about the Australian and Argentinean crops, and several

downward revisions of US crop forecasts in late 2010 and early 2011 have brought

strong market reactions and soaring prices. It is not clear whether these weather-related events

are transitory in nature, cyclical (El Nino and La Nina) or the harbingers of long term climate change.

Experts concur broadly that climate change will, in the longer term, lead to worsening

conditions in some arid and semi-arid regions where agricultural production is already

difficult, while temperate regions in particular, but not exclusively, may benefit. It is also thought that

climate change will lead to more frequent extreme events such as droughts, heat waves

and floods. Clearly, climate changewill provoke some adjustment of production patterns around

the world, as well as increased risks of local or regional supply problems that could add to future

volatility.

c. Biofuels

OECD, 11("Price Volatility in Food and Agricultural Markets: Policy Responses", Organization forEconomic Cooperation and Development, Collaborative report undertaken by the FAO, IFAD, IMF, OECD,


trade/48152638.pdf)

The demand for food and feed crops for the production of biofuels is another significant

factor. During the 2007-2009 period biofuels accounted for a significant share of global use of several

crops20% for sugar cane, 9% for vegetable oil and coarse grains and 4% for sugar beet. Projections

encompass a broad range of possible effects but all suggest that biofuel production will exert

considerable upward pressure on prices in the future. For example, according to one study

international prices for wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds and vegetable oil could be increased by 8%, 13%,

7% and 35% respectively10 . Moreover, as long as governments impose mandates (obligations

to blend fixed proportions of biofuels with fossil fuels, or binding targets for shares of

biofuels in energy use), biofuel production will aggravate the price inelasticity of

demand that contributes to volatility in agricultural prices.


15/71

d. Ethanol


Economic Cooperation and Development, Collaborative report undertaken by the FAO, IFAD, IMF, OECD,UNCTAD, WFP, the World Bank, WTO, IFPRI and UN HLTF, June, www.oecd.org/trade/agricultural-

trade/48152638.pdf)

Agricultural commodity prices are becoming increasingly correlated with oil prices. Oil

prices affect agricultural input prices directly and indirectly(through the price of fuel and

fertiliser, for example). In addition, depending on the relative prices of agricultural crops and oil, biofuel

production may become profitable (without government support) in some OECD countries. Financial

investment in commodities may also have contributed to an increasing correlation between oil and non-

oil commodity prices because of the significant share of such investment that tracks indexes containing

a basket of different commodities. High and volatile oil prices (if that is what is expected)

could therefore contribute to higher and more volatile agricultural prices, through

higher input costs, higher demand for the commodities used in the production of

biofuels(sugar, maize, vegetable oils), through competition for land with commodities that

are not used directly for the production of fuel, and possibly through financial

investment in commodity baskets.


16/71

2NC EXT No resource wars

No resource wars too expensive and market checks

Victor, 8 (David G,- Adjunct Senior Fellow for Science and Technology, Council on Foreign Relations;

Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development @ Stanford Smoke and Mirror

http://www.nationalinterest.org/PrinterFriendly.aspx?id=16530)

MY ARGUMENT is that classic resource warshot conflicts driven by a struggle to grab resourcesare increasingly rare. Even where

resources play a role, they are rarely the root cause of bloodshed. Rather, the root cause usually lies in various failures of governance.That argumentin both its classic form and in its more nuanced incarnationis hardly a straw man, as Thomas Homer-Dixon asserts. Setting aside hyperbole, the punditry increasingly points

to resources as a cause of war. And so do social scientists and policy analysts, even with their more nuanced views. Ive triggered this debate because conventional wisdom puts too much

emphasis on resources as a cause of conflict. Getting the story right has big implications for social scientists trying to unravel cause-and-effect and often even larger implications for public

policy. Michael Klare is right to underscore Saddam Husseins invasion of Kuwait, the only classic resource conflict in recent memory. That episode highlights two of the reasons why classic

resource wars are becoming raretheyre expensive and rarely work. (And even in Kuwaits case, many other forces also spurred the invasion. Notably, Iraq felt

insecure with its only access to the sea a narrow strip of land sandwiched between Kuwait on one side and its archenemy Iran on the other.) In the end, Saddam lost

resources on the order of $100 billion (plus his country and then his head) in his quest for Kuwaits 1.5 million

barrelsper day of combined oil and gas output. By contrast, Exxon paid $80 billion to get Mobils 1.7 million barrels per day of oiland gas productiona merger that has held and

flourished. As the bulging sovereign wealth funds are discovering, it is easier to get resources through the

stock exchange than the gun barrel.

Resources dont implicate warfare

Goldstone, 2K (Jack,- professor of public policy, George Mason, Population and Security: How

Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict., JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, Fall2002,

Vol. 56, p. 123)

For example, Wenche Hauge and Tanja Ellingsen, in the most comprehensive global test of the environmental-scarcity-leads-to-

violence hypothesis with recent data (198092), found that while deforestation, land degradation and low

freshwater availability were positively correlated with the incidence of civil war and armed conflict, the magnitude of their

effects was tiny. By themselves, these factors raised the probability of civil war by 0.5 to under 1.5 percent. Thesefactors did have a slightly higher impact on the probability of lesser kinds of armed conflict (causing increases in the chances of such conflict by from 4 percent to 8

percent); but their influence paled compared to the impact of such traditional risk factors as poverty,

regime type and current and prior political instability.


17/71

2NC EXT US rice bad

US rice doesnt meet international standards

Mayer, 11("U.S. Long-Grain Rice Industry: At A CRUCIAL CROSSROAdS", Karen Ott,

www.horizonseed.com/docs/Horizon_US-rice_crossroads-english.pdf)

The U.S.long-grain rice industry currently faces an unprecedented challenge, as many

segments of the industry, from producers to buyers, acknowledge the quality of U.S. long-

grain rice couldbe headed to a point where the country may no longer be considered the gold

standard across the globe. While the industryhas recovered from the GMO contamination

problems of 2006, it now finds itself faced with perhaps an even larger hurdle as buyers

continue to echo a strong sentiment of dissatisfaction. Market share for U.S. long-grain,

milled rice has weakened and competition from international players has stiffened,

driving many voices across the industry to ask one question: Why?

US rice cant compete dissatisfaction, high costs, and poor preservation

Christensen, 13("US Rice: Hybrids, Quality and Controversy", Paul is the former Coordinator of the

Seed Technology and Business proram at Iowa State University Seed Science Center January 28,

www.intlcorn.com/seedsiteblog/?p=1141)

The current quality issue centers on the fact that Mexico and Central America represent 90% of

the U.S. long-grain exports. The conceptions of quality of Central American millers and customers

count. The customers want their rice fluffy. Once again the seed industry is

involved. Processors and customers in U.S. export markets are criticizing the quality of

U.S. produced long-grain rice. The U.S. Rice industry has long had a good reputation for quality, at

least in part because of the introduction of scientific measures of quality in the post WWII U.S. rice

production, but foreign buyers of U.S. rice are currently dissatisfied and some are taking

their business to other rice producing nations.The Central American Rice Federation

represents the markets of Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. Its president,

Carlos Gonzalez Arguello, recently said I know there is good quality rice grown in the UnitedStates, but since 2010 our experience with importations has been one of negative

results due to the mixing of many varieties with low quality rice along the Mississippi

River delta.1 The Rice Advocate reported that Mr. Gonzalez, said that the inability of the U.S.

rice industry to preserve the identity of the rice varieties shipped down the river onto

ocean vessels in New Orleans is resulting in reduced milling yields, high broken grains,
http://www.intlcorn.com/seedsiteblog/?p=1141#_edn1http://www.intlcorn.com/seedsiteblog/?p=1141#_edn1http://www.intlcorn.com/seedsiteblog/?p=1141#_edn1http://www.intlcorn.com/seedsiteblog/?p=1141#_edn1


18/71

higher storage costs (more time to mix), increased investment in electronic sorting

equipment, resulting in a higher volume of product with lower commercial value. Mr.

Gonzalez also said that consumer rejection is being caused by poor cooking quality, poor

appearance in the package caused by chalk, lack of whiteness and non-uniform cooking

(soft grains mixed with hard grains).


19/71

Texas Advantage


20/71

1NC Texas Advantage

1. Alternative causes to decline in Texas rice farming drought and lack of

funding

Henry, 12("After Water is Cut Off, Texas Rice Farmers Say They Still Have a Future", Terrence, March

2, stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2012/03/02/how-rice-farming-in-texas-could-still-have-a-future/)

As the clock struck midnight Thursday, many rice farmers across southeast Texas had to face a

sobering reality: for the first time in history, they will not have water for their crops.It

saddens me because like I said, my familys been farming rice since 1905, says rice farmer Paul Sliva.

This will be the first year we havent.Theres no other crop than rice for me. Its gonna be a weird year.

Its gonna be a sad year for me. How did this happen? Under an emergency plan to deal with the

drought, the Lower Colorado River Authority cut off water to the rice farmers downstream in

Matagorda, Wharton and Colorado counties because there wasnt a enough water in the lakes

. Theywere about a billion gallonsshort. Facing an Uncertain Future Texas rice farmers cut off from water for first time in history

Download The lakes that hold that water mean different things to different people. For the people that

live on the lakesand many of whom make their living off of themtheyre a boon to property values

and business. But when massive amounts of water were sent downstream to rice farmers

last year, more than three times the amount used by all of Austin, in the midst of a record drought no

less, the lakes neared historic lows.And that hurt the lake interests, like the construction company

owned by Buster Cole. He says rice farmers dontappreciate the financial impact of their

withdrawals from the lake. They have no respect for the impact of whats happening on our

Highland Lakes, from economic property values, business owners, all the things involved, Cole says.Everybodys involved in this, and its bad. For the city of Austin and many factories and some power

plants, the lakes are a crucial source of water. And for the rice farmers?They say the water in

the lakes is practically a birthright. In a sense its our water, says Haskell Simon, a rice farmer in

Matagorda County. He says that without people like him growing rice, we wouldnt have the lakes and

dams we do today. In order to give a more assured supply of water for that burgeoning industry, there

was a pressure to develop those storage facilities which are now the Highland Lakes, he says. But as the

population of Central Texas has grown, with new factories and power plants along with it, rice farmers

have faced an uphill battle convincing people that the water belongs to them. And in the

futuretheyll be getting less water. Its no doubt that theres more and more of a claim

on the water in the basin every year, says Joe Crane, who has a rice farm in Bay City and several other

businesses that rely on the rice industry. The rice industry just needs time. Were right on the

cusp of some technological changes that will allow us to grow more rice with less water. Some of those

technological changes include new genetically-modified strains of rice that need less

water. Farmers are also drilling their own wells, but that can cost a quarter million

dollars.And many farmers have used lasers to level their fields, resulting in significant reductions in


21/71

how much water they use. Haskell Simon represents rice famers in Bay City, Texas. But none of these

options solves the problem of finding more water for a thirsty crop. Thats where a new

plancomes in: take water flowing into the Lower Colorado below the Lakes and store it.

The drainage area of the Colorado river below Austin is sufficiently large that in good

rainfall years, enough water flows into the Colorado below the dams for our needs, saysHaskell Simon, the Matagorda County rice farmer. To store that water, the LCRA is making a plan to

build off-channel reservoirs:small offshoots of the river that capture water during heavy rains.

But whos going to pay for it?The LCRA says thats still an open question. The rice farmers

are looking to the Department of Agriculture for help.

2. Double bind either

a. Status quo wetland restoration solves

Associated Press, 11("Texas wetland restoration could be model for Gulf", 7/1,

usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/2011-07-01-texas-wetland-restoration_n.htm)

BAYTOWN, Texas (AP) Brown pelicans, long-necked egrets, flamingo-like roseate spoonbills and

squawking seagulls fly lazily around a Texas Gulf Coast island. Nearby, a toddler-aged wetland seeded

with marsh grass completes the ecosystem, its thousands of inhabitants unaware their home is a

manmade creation dredged from the Houston Ship Channel. It's all part of a 20-year-old project to

restore lost wetlands and islands off the Texas coast. The federal government is hoping it

could become a model for rebuilding these crucial ecosystems elsewhere in the five-

state Gulf region. This and other efforts to revitalize the environment and economy of

the long-neglected coastal area are being partially bankrolled by a $1 billion fund from BP, which

agreed to pay the money as part of its responsibility for the massive oil spill that fouled the Gulf of

Mexico. Harris Sherman, undersecretary for natural resources and the environment at the

U.S. Department of Agriculture, recently viewed a bird island and toured a "demo"

wetland used to experiment how to best grow thick marsh grasses. "Strengthening the

ecology of the Gulf area is critically important.In doing so we can improve the economy of theGulf region and strengthen the resiliency of the communities of the Gulf," Sherman said.

b. Or alternative causes make the plan insufficient

NABCI, 13(North American Bird Conservation Initiative, "Wetlands", The State of the Birds 2013

Report on Private Lands, www.stateofthebirds.org/habitats/wetlands-1)


22/71


23/71

patterns threaten the Midwests prairie pothole region, known as "Americas duck factory."

Many ducks such as mallards and pintails face disappearing breeding habitat.

4. No impact to species loss

Sagoff, 97("Do We Consume Too Much?", Mark is head of George Mason University's Institute for

Philosophy and Public Policy,http://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/97jun/consume.htm )

There is no credible argument, moreover, that all or even most of the species we are

concerned to protect are essential to the functioning of the ecological systems on which

we depend. (If whales went extinct, for example, the seas would not fill up with krill.) David Ehrenfeld,

a biologist at Rutgers University, makes this point in relation to the vast ecological changes we have

already survived. "Even a mighty dominant like the American chestnut," Ehrenfeld has written,

"extending over half a continent, all but disappeared without bringing the eastern deciduous forestdown with it." Ehrenfeld points out that the species most likely to be endangered are those

the biosphere is least likely to miss. "Many of these species were never common or

ecologically influential; by no stretch of the imagination can we make them out to be

vital cogs in the ecological machine."
http://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/97jun/consume.htmhttp://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/97jun/consume.htmhttp://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/97jun/consume.htmhttp://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/97jun/consume.htm


24/71

2NC EXT Biodiversity defense

Ecosystems are resilient

McDermott, 9("Good News: Most Ecosystems Can Recover in One Lifetime from Human-Induced or

Natural Disturbance", May 27, Mat,www.treehugger.com/natural-sciences/good-news-most-

ecosystems-can-recover-in-one-lifetime-from-human-induced-or-natural-disturbance.html

There's a reason the phrase "let nature take its course" exists:New research done at theYale

University School of Forestry & Environmental Sciencereinforces the idea that ecosystems are quiet

resilient and can rebound from pollution and environmental degradation.Published in the

journalPLoS ONE,the study shows that most damaged ecosystems worldwide can recover

within a single lifetime, if the source of pollution is removed and restoration work done:

Forests Take Longest of Ecosystems Studied The analysis found that on average forest ecosystems can

recover in 42 years, while in takes only about 10 years for the ocean bottom to recover. If an area hasseen multiple, interactive disturbances, it can take on average 56 years for recovery. In general, most

ecosystems take longer to recover from human-induced disturbances than from natural events, such as

hurricanes.
http://environment.yale.edu/http://environment.yale.edu/http://environment.yale.edu/http://environment.yale.edu/http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0005653http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0005653http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0005653http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0005653http://environment.yale.edu/http://environment.yale.edu/


25/71

2NC EXT Drought alt cause

The emergency LCRA plan disproves the impact

Hawkes, 13("Texas rice farmers could get relief from new reservoir project", Logan, May 9,

southwestfarmpress.com/irrigation/texas-rice-farmers-could-get-relief-new-reservoir-project)

One of the worst droughts in modern history caused the Lower Colorado River Authority

(LCRA) to propose two consecutive years of an emergency water plan that, once approved

by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), left Texas rice growers in a three-

county coastal region without adequate irrigation water to sustain their entire rice

crops, forcing most farmers to limit rice acres and scramble to plant alternative crops, like cotton or

sorghum.

Ongoing drought makes it inevitable

Heinrich, 13("Without River Water, Rice Farmers Look to Alternative Crops", Holly, July 9,

stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2013/07/09/without-river-water-rice-farmers-look-to-alternative-crops/)

Rice has been growing in Texas since the 1800s, but for the past two years most rice farmers in

Southeast Texas along the Lower Colorado River have been cut off from their usual

water supplies because of the ongoing Texas drought. Its possible they will be cut off a third

time next year, leading to the question: can rice farming continue along the Lower Colorado

River? It they are cut off again next year, rice farmers on the Lower Colorado expect to lose

thecrop insurance benefits that have helped sustain them through the last two years

without water. Some have begun planting less water-intensive alternative crops, such as sorghum and

soy beans, to generate income on farms that are otherwise in economic limbo. But in this humid, once-

swampy region stretching to the Gulf Coast, some rice farmers say that growing crops

other than rice is not a permanently viable solution. Thats because the conditions that

make the Lower Colorado River ideal for growing rice also make it inhospitable to other

crops, according to Ron Gertson, a rice farmer who chairs the Colorado Water Issues Committee.

Empirically denied 2012 drought

Henry, 13("After Rice Farmers Cut Off Last Year, Water Use Cut in Half in Central Texas", Terrence,

6/11, stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2013/06/11/after-rice-farmers-cut-off-water-use-cut-in-half-in-central-

texas/)
http://www.rma.usda.gov/news/currentissues/prevented/http://www.rma.usda.gov/news/currentissues/prevented/


26/71

In 2012, for the first time in history, most rice farmers on the Lower Colorado River in South

Texas were cut off from water for irrigation. According to an emergency drought plan, there

wasnt enough waterin the Highland Lakes of Buchanan and Travis to send water

downstream. In the months since, those lakes have continued to drop, and this year rice

farmers were cut off once again. New numbers from the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA)show just how much was at stake in the decisions to withhold water: if normal amounts had been

sent downstream for rice farming, the lakes could very well havedropped to their lowest

levels in history. Dry conditions persist in many parts of Texas,now in a third year of drought.

While Central Texas had a relatively good 2012 rain-wise, it didnt do much for the Highland Lakes.

Inflows were below average for most of the year, and the LCRA says that so far this year,

inflows are looking more like they did in 2011, which were the lowest ever recorded.


27/71

2NC EXT Rice doesnt solve migratory birds

Alt cause climate change

NRCM, 13("Report: Climate Change Threatens New Englands Migratory Birds", National Resources

Council of Maine, www.nrcm.org/news_detail.asp?news=5497)

June 24, 2013Climate change is altering and destroying important habitats that New Englands

migratory birds depend on and urgent action is needed to change that dangerous flight path, according

to a new report released by the National Wildlife Federation.Shifting Skies: Confronting the Climate

Crisisdetails how a warming climate could lead to a decline in some bird populations and even

extinctions if we dont take action to reduce carbon pollution and adopt climate-smart conservation

strategies. We are already seeing New Englandsbirds like the blackpoll warbler and the

Bicknells thrush at risk from climate change impacts including habitat changes and

changes in nesting seasons, says Hector Galbraith, staff scientist for the Northeast office of the

National Wildlife Federation. Climate change is a massive threat to birds right now. We need

to act, or we will see declining bird populations.Shifting Skies explains that migratory birds face

unique challenges. Each season they require different places to live, often thousands of

miles apart, to raise their young, migrate and overwinter.At least 350 species in North

America fly to South or Central America every fall and return in the spring. The report describes

how climate change is adversely affecting bird behavior and includes specific examples

in many regions of the U.S.: Birds ranges are shifting and in some cases, contracting. 177 of

305 species tracked have shifted their winter centers of abundance northward by 35 miles on average in

the past four decades. Coastal wetlands and beach habitatslike Cape Cod and New Englandsmarshlands, home to birds like saltmarsh sparrows and piping plovers, are being inundated by sea

level rise or extreme weather. A warming climate is exacerbating pests and disease,

including the hemlock woolly adelgid and the emerald ash borer. Piping Plovers are struggling along our

coast in New England right now, said Pam Hunt of New Hampshire Audubon. Between sea level

rise and the potential of storms like Sandy destroying their nesting areas, they are

perched on a razors edge. We must not only protect their habitat but also curb climate

change in order to ensure super storms and extreme weather events dont wipe them out altogether.

The impact is inevitable global decline of migratory birds

UNEP, 13("Loss and Degradation of Natural Habitats Threaten Migratory Birds, Pushing Species

towards Extinction", United Nations Environmental Programme,

http://www.cms.int/news/PRESS/nwPR2013/05_may/unep_cms_pr_wmbd.pdf)
http://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/Media-Center/Reports/Archive/2013/06-18-13-Migratory-Birds-in-a-Warming-World.aspxhttp://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/Media-Center/Reports/Archive/2013/06-18-13-Migratory-Birds-in-a-Warming-World.aspxhttp://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/Media-Center/Reports/Archive/2013/06-18-13-Migratory-Birds-in-a-Warming-World.aspxhttp://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/Media-Center/Reports/Archive/2013/06-18-13-Migratory-Birds-in-a-Warming-World.aspxhttp://www.cms.int/news/PRESS/nwPR2013/05_may/unep_cms_pr_wmbd.pdfhttp://www.cms.int/news/PRESS/nwPR2013/05_may/unep_cms_pr_wmbd.pdfhttp://www.cms.int/news/PRESS/nwPR2013/05_may/unep_cms_pr_wmbd.pdfhttp://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/Media-Center/Reports/Archive/2013/06-18-13-Migratory-Birds-in-a-Warming-World.aspxhttp://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/Media-Center/Reports/Archive/2013/06-18-13-Migratory-Birds-in-a-Warming-World.aspx


28/71

Migratory waterbird species that depend on a network of intertidal habitats along the

East Asian-Australasian Flyway(EAAF) are showing rapid decline and are amongst the

worlds most-threatened migratory birds. The decline is mainly caused by the fast pace

of coastal land reclamation occurring in this densely populated region, particularly around

key coastal staging areas in the Yellow Sea. According to a 2011 report commissioned by theInternational Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the rates of decline in the region are

among the highest of any ecological system in the world. At least 24 waterbird species using

the flyway are heading towards extinction and many others are facing losses of five to nine per cent per

year. According to the IUCN report, species such as the Spoon-billed Sandpiper could become

extinct within a decade. Migratory birds and the challenges they face in many ways

underline the ambition of multilateralism in a globalized worldit is only when countries

work together in common cause that the survival and conservation of these species be ensured, said

UN UnderSecretary General and UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner. There are many reasons why

migratory birds should be conservedtheir beauty and behavior are a source of joy and inspiration formillions upon millions of people, headded. But they also are part of the web of life that underpins

natures multi-trilliondollar ecosystem services, while being in some countries, including Kenya, part of

the nature-based tourism that generates 10 per cent of the nations GDP.This year, World Migratory

Bird Day events will be celebrated in countries which share the African-Eurasian Flyways. In Kenya, for

instance, a regional event will take place on the shores of Lake Elementaitapart of the Kenya Lakes

Systems, a network of sites that supports 11 globally threatened bird species. The area also sustains

75 per cent of the near-threatened Lesser Flamingo, and Lake Elementaita is known to

be one of the worlds major breeding colonies of the Great White Pelican. The event is

being hosted by the Kenyan Wildlife Service (KWS) in cooperation with the UNEP/CMS and UNEP/AEWA

Secretariats.


29/71

2NC EXT Status quo wetland restoration

The status quo solves USACE and Texas restoration policies

Arnold, 12("USACE Galveston District asists in the Texas Gulf Coast restoration initiative", Sandra,

www.dvidshub.net/news/94253/usace-galveston-district-assists-texas-gulf-coast-restoration-

initiative#.UeycT9LOuuk)

Barrier island shoreline stabilization: To combat erosion, the USACE Galveston District is creating

wetland and barrier islands along the Texas coast to replace shorelines that have been

eroded over the decades. The stabilization of the shoreline and barrier islands will also

continue to serve as vital habitat for nesting shorebirdsas well as for the critically endangered

Kemps Ridley sea turtle and other sea turtles. The district continues to nourish beaches along the Texas

coast as well as renourish eroding islands in Galvestons West Bay. Additionally, the district will

construct more beneficial use sites in Aransas National Wildlife Refuge during fiscal year 2013. Beneficialuse: Annually, the USACE Galveston District dredges(removes sediment from underwater

locations and transports it elsewhere via a barge or pipeline) approximately 30 to 40 million cubic

yards of material from Texas ports to ensure waterways remain open for commerce.

While undertaking its mission of keeping Americas waterways navigable, the Corps uses the material to

benefit local communities and improve eroded coastlines through beach nourishment and beneficial use

programs to create marsh, restore sea grass and provide bird rookeries in Galveston Bay, Matagorda

Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge and Laguna Madre. Oyster reef

restoration: According to the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, more than 8,000

acres of oyster reefs were lost in Galveston Bay during Hurricane Ike. With more than 50percent of the oyster reefs in Galveston Bay impacted, the USACE Galveston District remains committed

to working with its partners to construct more than 170 acres of oyster reefs in Galveston Bay and is

planning to partner with the Nature Conservancy to create 12 acres of habitat at Half Moon Oyster Reef

in Matagorda Bay in 2013. Sea grass protection: Sea grasses provide an invaluable habitat for

numerous fish species and contribute to the stabilization of recreational fishing grounds.

The district contributes to the protection of sea grass by only dredging the Laguna Madre and

other sensitive areas in the winter when the sea grasses are dormant and continuing to nourish the

beds with a thin layer of beneficial use material derived from nearby dredging projects.

Regulatory permits involving dredging and other work in sea grass beds adhere to stringent guidelinesand require mitigation or restoration to maintain the values of these special aquatic sites. Securing

freshwater inflows:The districts Wallisville Lake Project protects freshwater intakes on

the Trinity River from saltwater intrusion during periods of low flow for the City of

Houston and widespread agricultural interests. Regional water resource management within

Texas also interfaces with Regulatory permits when water transfer projects are proposed in waters of


30/71

the United States. Threatened and endangered species: The Corps employs a variety of methods

to minimize impacts to threatened and endangered speciesincluding the use of turtle

trawling monitors and excluding devices on dredges to reduce turtle takes (kills) and scheduling

dredging and construction projects around various seasonal time frames to minimize

impacts to nesting birds and turtles. Additionally, the district applies these same requirementswhen issuing Regulatory permits to ensure minimal impact is made to our nations threatened and

endangered species. Wetlands: Wetlands serve as valuable nurseries for fish and wildlife and

are also vital barriers during storms. Through permitting, the USACE Galveston District

ensures that economic development in coastal areas can move forward while

minimizing the impact on our environment. These wetlands have propelled the Texas Gulf

Coast as one of the most important wintering and migration habitats in North America. The districts

Regulatory Branch provides strong protection of the nations aquatic environment, to

achieve a goal of no net loss of wetlandswhile balancing economic prosperity

with environmental sustainability. Way Forward: Continual erosion of the Texas coastline with

specific impacts to wildlife areas, wetlands, barrier islands, and residential and commercial properties

has caused significant environmental and economic impacts. In order to accurately assess the full

extent of the damages, a three-year Coastal Texas Ecosystem Protection and Restoration

Study will provide a complete body of data that will enable staff to recommend a

comprehensive strategy for storm damage reduction and ecosystem restorationalong the

entire coastal area of Texas, said Sallese.


31/71

CP


32/71

CP Alan Gross


33/71

2NC Solvency Advocate

Alan Gross release is a prerequisite to successful rice trade

Robinson, 13("U.S. rice trade with Cuba entangled with jailed American", Elton, February 8,

deltafarmpress.com/blog/us-rice-trade-cuba-entangled-jailed-american)

Exporting U.S. rice to Cuba just cant seem to get going. After importing U.S. rice in record

numbers a few years back, Cubas imports of U.S. rice have now slowed to a trickle. Relations

between the two countries have chilled considerably. Unfortunately, this is not likely to change

until something is done about an American named Alan Gross, who has been sitting in a

Cuban jail for three years. In November 2009, Gross was an American international development expert

working as a subcontractor for the U.S. Agency for International Development. Gross was hired to

implement a risky plan in Cuba, setting up broadband technology for small numbers of Jewish citizens in

Havana. The technology provided the Cubans with unfiltered access to the Internet. Cubas securityforces considered this a serious crime and on Dec. 3, 2009 arrested Gross at Havanas Jose Marti Airp ort

as he was attempting to leave Cuba. He was ultimately convicted for acts against the independence or

the territorial integrity of the state.The 63-year old is now beginning the fourth year of a 15-year

prison sentence, and apparently, Cuba has no intention of letting him go. In fact, theyve recently used

Gross as a bargaining chip for five Cuban spies convicted in Miami of various crimes including conspiring

to shoot down two civilian airplanes in 1996, which killed four south Florida men. In rejecting the offer,

U.S. officials noted that there is no parallel between Gross and the jailed Cubans. I agree. In most

countries, giving people access to information is not only a right, but perfectly legal, and murder is a

crime. The Obama Administration has stated that further talks on improving Cuba and

U.S. relations, including trade matters, will not resume until Gross is returned. While a tradeembargo might seem like a good way to bully outlaw states like Cuba into changing their ways, its far

from a precision shot because it also punishes Cuban citizens who are in desperate need of goods and

services, as well as U.S. producers who need their consumerism.


34/71

CP Wetlands


35/71

1NC Wetlands CP

Text The state of Texas should substantially increase its watershed scale

wetland management.

The counterplan solves the advantage better preservation, protection and

restoration

WARPT, 10("Protect Wetlands Locally", Wetlands-At-Risk Protection Tool,

www.wetlandprotection.org/protect-wetlands.html#Land Conservation)

Local governments play a key role in filling the gaps in wetland protection, because they

have primary responsibility for local land use management.Local action is particularly critical

in states that do not have comprehensive wetland protection programs. Protect Wetlands UsingRegulatory or Voluntary Measures provides a review of regulatory and non-regulatory options for local

governments. Ideally, a combination of approaches will be used. Managing wetlands at the

watershed scale can help minimizeindirectimpacts to wetlands.Direct impactsto wetlands

include the removal or addition of material such as dredging, filling, or draining that are largely

regulated through the federal and state wetland permitting process. Indirect impacts such as altered hydrology,

increased pollutant loadings, and buffer encroachmentcaused by urbanization are summarized inWetlands &

Watersheds Article 1.Using a watershed approach allows communities to make better

choices about preservingthe highest quality wetlands, protectingthe most vulnerable

wetlands, and findingthe best sites for wetland restoration.Wetlands & Watersheds Article 2provides detailed information on using local watershed plans to protect wetlands.
http://www.wetlandprotection.org/glossary/15/49-indirectimpacts-definition.htmlhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/glossary/15/49-indirectimpacts-definition.htmlhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/glossary/15/49-indirectimpacts-definition.htmlhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/glossary/15/42-directimpacts-definition.htmlhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/glossary/15/42-directimpacts-definition.htmlhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/glossary/15/42-directimpacts-definition.htmlhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/images/stories/PDFs/5_wetlandsarticle1.pdfhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/images/stories/PDFs/5_wetlandsarticle1.pdfhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/images/stories/PDFs/5_wetlandsarticle1.pdfhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/images/stories/PDFs/5_wetlandsarticle1.pdfhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/images/stories/PDFs/5_wetlandsarticle2.pdfhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/images/stories/PDFs/5_wetlandsarticle2.pdfhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/images/stories/PDFs/5_wetlandsarticle2.pdfhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/images/stories/PDFs/5_wetlandsarticle2.pdfhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/images/stories/PDFs/5_wetlandsarticle1.pdfhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/images/stories/PDFs/5_wetlandsarticle1.pdfhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/glossary/15/42-directimpacts-definition.htmlhttp://www.wetlandprotection.org/glossary/15/49-indirectimpacts-definition.html


36/71


37/71

CP Exports


38/71

1NC Exports CP

Text The United States federal government should reverse its ban on

Mexican long-haul trucks entering the United States and expand its funding

for the United States Drug Administrations Market Access Program, theForeign Market Development Cooperation Program, and the USA Rice

Federation.

Counterplan solves the largest internal links to declining rice exports

Park 10(Manager of the International Rice Federation. "The National Export Initiative and the U.S. Rice

Industry". www.ricefarming.com/home/issues/2010-05/2010_MayUSARiceFed.html)

Doubling exports by 2015 may prove challenging, as the rest of the worlds countries also will be looking

to bring their economies out of the recession. Most of the administrations steps for the NEI will take

considerable time to implement. However, there are several areas where immediate

attentionand action could lead to job creation and maintenance, while increasing

U.S. exports. Market access barriersAs a historic net ex-porter, agriculture is one industry

that can take the lead. But U.S. agriculture is being held back on several fronts and many

market access barriers face U.S.-grown rice, in particular. First and foremost, Congress and

the administration need to resolve the U.S. ban on Mexican long-haultrucks entering the United States. Thirteen months ago, Mexico subjected 90

agricultural and manufactured goods to increased import tariffs for violating terms of

the NorthAmerican Free TradeAgreement. So far, this has cost the United States

$2.6 billion inlost exportsand more than 25,000 lost jobs.Many of the market access

barriers facing U.S. agriculture can only be addressed by negotiating a fair multilateral trade agreement

within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Concluding the Doha Round will be paramount to the

success of the NEI. Furthermore, three pending free trade agreements (FTAs) are waiting for action by

Congress. Two of those FTAs, with Colombia and Panama, offer immediate benefits to the U.S. rice

industry. The United States is lagging behind the rest of the world and losing its competitive edge by

being a party to only 17 out of 400 existing FTAs.What does the NEI mean for the U.S. rice industry?

U.S. rice farmers produce less than two percent of the worlds annual rice supply, but the United States

is the worlds fourth largest rice exporter. The U.S. rice industry exports close to half of its crop annually.

In 2009, the United States exported an estimated 93.6 million hundredweight (2.99 million metric tons)

of rice to foreign markets, contributing more than $2 billion to the U.S. economy and providing

thousands of American jobs.The NEI goals are possible to achieve if progress is made in markets where

specific constraints prevent a level playing field for U.S. rice. These include historically large markets for


39/71

U.S. rice, current markets and new markets with great potential. Normalizing commercial trade with

Cuba, for example, would recapture that market for U.S. rice. Prior to the current embargo, Cuba was a

400,000 to 600,000 metric ton (MT) market for long-grain rice producers. Trade resumed in 2002, after

Congress passed the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export En-hancement Act of 2000 (TSREEA). But, in

2005, the U.S. Treasury Depart-ments reinterpretation of payment provisions of the TSREEA required

payment through third-party banks in advance of shipment. This change, plus liquidity constraints in

Cuba, led to a decline in U.S. rice exports to Cuba from 177,000 MT in 2004 to less than 13,000 MT in

2008. There was no trade in 2009 and none so far in 2010. Iraq is a consistently large net importer of

rice, with imports accounting for at least 69 percent, on average, of consumption. Import dependency

for rice is at its highest level because of reduced domestic production and increased consumption. U.S.

political support for expanding exports to Iraq is key to regaining this important market for U.S. rice.

When U.S. sanctions were imposed on Iraq in 1990, U.S. sales, which averaged nearly 450,000 MT in the

late 1980s, dropped to zero. With minor exceptions, U.S. sales did not resume until 2005 at a reduced

level.Taiwan and the European Union (EU) are current markets for U.S. rice that pose several

constraints where enforcement of trade rights has lagged.Political opposition thwarts EU tradeTrade

has not yet returned to normal levels between the EU and the United States since the unapproved

genetically engineered (GE) Liberty Link 601 trait was found in the U.S. long-grain supply in 2006. The EU

has a zero tolerance for unapproved GE traits. In 2005, the EU imported 306,000 MT of U.S. rice. Imports

by 2009 had fallen to 27 percent of that amount.True market recovery will be nearly impossible to

achieve, absent establishment of a low-level presence policy for GE traits that are approved in other

countries, but not in the EU. Additionally, the EUs tariff regime for brown rice, the major type of U.S.

rice exported to the EU, is complex and needs to be replaced. Both the EU and the U.S. governments

recognize this, but negotiations have not begun, because of political opposition in the EU.A potential

new market for U.S. rice is China. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that China

imported roughly 330,000 MT from Thailand and Vietnam in 2008-09. A lack of a phytosanitary protocol

with China prohibits U.S. rice from entering the country. Once this protocol is negotiated and

implemented, U.S. rice exporters can begin market development in this important market.Status of

Free Trade AgreementsRegarding the pending FTAs, the implications for rice are specific to each

agreement. Approval of the U.S.-Colombia FTA would set a tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 79,000 MT of U.S.

rice in the first year; the quota would grow 4.5 percent annually until free trade is achieved in year

2019.Similarly, the U.S.-Panama FTA would phase out Panamas duties on U.S. rice over a 20-year

period. Two separate TRQs would be established for rough rice and milled rice. The amount for each

TRQ would increase six percent each year.Access for U.S. rice in the Korean market was excluded in the

final moments of negotiations, at the insistence of South Korea. FTAs entered into by the United States

should be comprehensive and include all products, including those that are politically sensitive.Also,

continued funding by Congress for USDAs Market Access Program and the Foreign

Market Development Cooperator Program are critical to achieving the presidents

export objectives.The USA Rice Federation uses these cost-share programs to

promote U.S. rice in more than 40 countries. Funding for these programs is

appropriated annually, and USA Rice supports continued full funding by Congress for these

programs.


40/71


41/71

2NC Solvency

Counterplan solves the largest threat to the rice industry

ERS 11Economic Research Service (Consolidationand Structural Change in the U.S.

Rice Sector, April,http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/111364/rcs11d01_1_.pdf)

The forces driving a decline in farm numbers and an increase in average farm size are

primarily financial pressures and economic incentives.These factors are

pushing rice producers to reduceper-unit costsby making more efficient use of resources

through greater specialization or by creating enhanced economies of scale (efficiencies from increased

size). Previous research found that farm size, changes in production technologies, and specialization

were largely responsible for boosting productivity and lowering unit costs in the poultry, swine, dairy,

and the livestock sector as a whole (MacDonald, 2008; Key and McBride, 2007; MacDonald et al., 2007;

and MacDonald

and McBride, 2009). For example, MacDonald et al. (2007) found that the

smallestdairy herd sizes in 2005 had output per cow that was 25 percent lower than the largest herd-size

category, and per-unit total costs that were 121 percent higher.

Incentives solve and so does the status quo

ERS 11Economic Research Service (Consolidation and Structural Change in the U.S.

Rice Sector, April,http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/111364/rcs11d01_1_.pdf)

Despite the considerable challenges confronting potential rice farmers or those wishing to expand the

scale of their operations, ARMS data indicate that economic incentives for existing

rice farmersto remain in operation remain comparatively strong among major U.S. field crops.Along with some exit barriers that may limit alternatives even for some less profitable rice enterprises,

this suggeststhat rice acreage is likely to remain relatively stable in the future. Additionally,

increased productivityand more efficient resource usethrough improved

agronomic management practices have allowed many producers to lower per-unit

costs on existing rice area in order to remain competitive.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/111364/rcs11d01_1_.pdfhttp://www.ers.usda.gov/media/111364/rcs11d01_1_.pdfhttp://www.ers.usda.gov/media/111364/rcs11d01_1_.pdfhttp://www.ers.usda.gov/media/111364/rcs11d01_1_.pdfhttp://www.ers.usda.gov/media/111364/rcs11d01_1_.pdfhttp://www.ers.usda.gov/media/111364/rcs11d01_1_.pdf


42/71

DA Links


43/71

DA Links Sustainable Agriculture


44/71

1NC Link

The rice embargo incentivizes organic and sustainable agriculture

Gonzalez, 3("Seasons of Resistance: Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security in Cuba", Carmen G is

a Law Professor at Seattle University Law School, The National Agricultural Law Center, University of

Arkansas School of Law, www.nationalaglawcenter.org/assets/bibarticles/gonzalez_seasons.pdf)

D. Ecological Sustainability Cuban agriculture is now more ecologically sustainable as a

consequence of the drop in agricultural inputsoccasioned by the Special Period and of the

Cuban governments promotion of low-input organic methods. By the end of 1998, Cuban farmers were

cultivating 4.5 million hectares of arable land.402 According to one estimate, approximately 1.5 million

hectares were being cultivated using organic methods.403 Nearly 50% of fresh vegetables and 65% of

rice are currently organic.404 However, the behavior of key export sectors raises questions about

Cubas long-term commitment to organic agriculture. Cuba continues to rely on chemical-intensivemethods for the production of export commodities such as sugar and tobacco, and it is unclear that

the vast majority of Cuban agricultural engineers and technicians see green

agricultural techniques as anything but an accommodation to economic exigencies.405

While the current scarcity of foreign exchange favorsthe development of organic

agriculture,it remains to be seen whether the Cuban government will continue to promote thismodel once economic conditions improve.


45/71

2NC EXT Link

Sustainable agriculture underlies Cubas rice production

Kjartan, 2k("Organic Farming and Urban Garden Revolution in Cuba", Renee, Washington Free Press,

www.purefood.org/Organic/cubagarden.cfm)

At first, Bourque said, sustainable agriculture was seen as a way to "suffer through" the

shock of the Soviet withdrawal. "When they began this effort, most policy-makers could not

imagine any significant amount of rice being grown in Cuba without the full green-revolution technical

package (e.g. high off-farm inputs). But by 1997 small-scale rice production had reached

140,000 tons, 65% of national production. Today everyone agrees that sustainable

agriculture has played a major role in feeding the country and is saving Cuba millions of

dollars," that would otherwise go "to the international pesticide cartel," Bourque said.

Global ag companies crowd out organic methods

Barclay, 3("Cuba's security in fresh produce", Food First Institute for Food and Development Policy,

Eliza is a reporter for NPR, www.foodfirst.org/node/1208)

Aside from the disruption in self-suff

cuba rice exports negative - hss 2013.docx

Documents