csi: climate status investigations teacher training institute april 16-21, 2008 climate change 101
TRANSCRIPT
CSI: Climate Status Investigations
Teacher Training Institute
April 16-21, 2008
Climate Change 101
Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies…
20041995
Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies…
200620041995
Presentation Outline
• The Greenhouse Effect
• Where Does Our Energy Come From?
• Emissions
• Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes
• Future Trends
Source: EPA Global Warming site.http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/climate.html
CO2 CH4 N2O CF4 SF6
Global Warming Potential (GWP)
1 21 310 6,500 23,900
Atmospheric Lifetime (years)
50-200 12 114 >50,000 3,200
Pre-industrial Concentration (ppm)
280 0.722 0.270 40 0
Atmospheric Concentration (ppm)
381 1.774 0.319 80 5.4
Rate of Concentration Change (ppm/yr)
1,610 0.005 0.0007 1.0 (ppt/yr)
0.23 (ppt/yr)
Effects of Different Greenhouse Gases
Source: US EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports 2008http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html
CONVERSION CHARTS
1 unit carbon (C) = 3.6667 or 44/12 units carbon dioxide (CO2)
1 unit CO2 = 0.2727 or 12/44 units C
Converting methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) to equivalent CO2 and C units:
• Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO2 = 1
• GWP of CH4 = 21 (over 100-year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report)
• GWP of N2O = 310 (over 100-year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report)
EXAMPLE: (100 metric tons of N2O)x(310) = 31,000 metric tons of CO2 Equivalents x 12/44 = 8,454 metric tons of Carbon Equivalents x 2204/2000 = 9,316 short tons C
Converting mass units (e.g., short tons, metric tons, teragrams)
1 metric ton (tonne) = 1,000 kilograms (kg) = 2,204 lbs1 short ton = 0.9072 metric tons = 2,000 lbs1 Teragram (Tg) = 1012 grams = 1 million (106) metric tons1 Gigaton (Gt) = 1 Petagram (Pg) = 1015 grams = 1 billion (109) metric tons
Presentation Outline
• The Greenhouse Effect
• Where Does Our Energy Come From?
• Emissions
• Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes
• Future Trends
Fossil FuelsWorld’s Dominant Energy Source
United States (2005)100 QBtu/yr (1.06e14 MJ)
86% Fossil Energy
World (2005) 462 Quads/yr (4.87e14 MJ)
86% Fossil Energy
World Data from International Energy Outlook 2007 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html.U.S. Data from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/fuel.html
Coal26%Coal26%
Oil37%
Gas23%
Nuclear 6%
Gas23%
Nuclear 8%
Oil41%
Hydro 3%
Other renewable
(solar, wind, geothermal, biomass) 3%
Renewables 8%
Coal23%Coal23%
Renewables 6%
100 Quads
Fossil fuels provide 86% of energy
2005
2030
131 Quads
By 2030, reliance on fossil fuels remains
stable at 86%
Coal23%
Nuclear 8%
Renewables 6%
Oil 41%
Gas23%
Coal26%
Nuclear 7%
Oil 40%
Gas20%
+ 31%
Source: AEO 2007
Fossil Energy - America’s Energy Foundation
Hydro, 3.0
Biomass, 3.2
Muni Waste, 0.4
Biofuels, 5.1
Geothermal, 0.8
Wind, 1.2
Solar, 0.0
Hydro, 2.7
Biomass, 2.2
Biofuels, 0.6
Muni Waste, 0.4
Geothermal, 0.3
Solar, 0.0
Wind, 0.1
6.3 Quads2005
203013.7 Quads
+ 118%
Source: AEO 2008
Renewable Energy Consumption – Growing Fast, But From a Small Base
Presentation Outline
• The Greenhouse Effect
• Where Does Our Energy Come From?
• Emissions
• Correlation with Monitored Climate Changes
• Future Trends
All Fossil Fuels & Energy SectorsContribute CO2 Emissions
Industry29%
Industry29%
Commercial18%
Commercial18%
Residential21%
Transportation32%
Transportation32%
Oil44%Oil
44%
Coal36%Coal36%
Natural Gas20%
AEO2007
United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions(By Source & Sector)
CO2 & CH4 - The Primary GHG Contributors
Methane9%
Nitrous Oxide5%
HFCs, PFCs, SF6
2%
CO2 fromEnergy
83%
Other CO2
2%
“EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U.S.: 2005”
United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions(Equivalent Global Warming Basis)
World Carbon Dioxide Emissions By Region, 2001-2025(Million Metric Tons of C Equivalent)
Carbon Intensity By Region, 2001-2025(Metric Tons of C Equivalent per Million $1997)
…But Carbon Dioxide Emissions are Growing
Carbon Intensity is Falling…
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Mil
lio
n T
on
nes
Car
bo
n
WRE 450
WRE 550
WRE 650
NETL 2003
BAU
Delay 550
Different Concentration Levels are Possible
Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004
Stabilization Requires a Budget
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
450 550 650 750ppm
Billion
ton
nes C
arb
on
(1900-2
100)
Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004
The Budget is DisappearingCumulative carbon emissions 1900-2100 (GtC)
Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization
Today
531283
2010
375 439
2020
322492
2030
638 176
2040
809 5
Spent
Remaining
Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004
Presentation Outline
• The Greenhouse Effect
• Where Does Our Energy Come From?
• Emissions
• Correlation with Monitored Climate Changes
• Future Trends
Atmospheric Concentrations are Rising…
CO2 Concentrations On The Rise(~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years)
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
from
Pre
sent
(oC
)
Time Before Present (kyr)
CO
2 Con
cent
ratio
n(p
pmv)
200 150 50
350
300
250
200
100 0
2
0
-2
-4
Tatm (Vostok)
CO2 (Vostok)
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics.htm
Presentation Outline• The Greenhouse Effect
• Where Does Our Energy Come From?
• Emissions
• Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes
• Future Trends
Possible harbingers…
• Rising sea levels• Spreading disease• Earlier spring arrival• Plant and animal range shifts
and population changes• Coral reef bleaching• Permafrost melting• Downpours, heavy
snowfalls, and flooding• Droughts and fires
Source: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov and National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
Permafrost and polar ice are melting…
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
Precipitation is erratic
Significant Climate Anomalies
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA