crystal jones office of freight management and operations · what is travel time reliability? •...
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Crystal JonesCrystal Jones
Office of Freight Office of Freight ManagementManagement
and Operationsand Operations
USDOTUSDOTFederal Highway Federal Highway
AdministrationAdministration
September 2007September 2007
•• 25% of the U.S. GDP is related to 25% of the U.S. GDP is related to international trade and is predicted to grow international trade and is predicted to grow to 35% in the next 20 years.to 35% in the next 20 years.
•• From 1980 to 2002, truck travel on US From 1980 to 2002, truck travel on US highways grew by 90% while lanehighways grew by 90% while lane--miles of miles of public roads grew by only 5%.public roads grew by only 5%.
•• Between 2002 and 2035, the highways Between 2002 and 2035, the highways carrying 10,000 or more trucks will carrying 10,000 or more trucks will increase from 10K miles to 34K miles.increase from 10K miles to 34K miles.
ContextContext
NNo Longer Just an Urban Issueo Longer Just an Urban Issue
•• Congestion impedes timely Congestion impedes timely and reliable freight and reliable freight movements and threatens movements and threatens business productivity.business productivity.
•• The travel growth rate has The travel growth rate has been even greater in rural been even greater in rural than in urban areasthan in urban areas
•• Freight volumes are expected Freight volumes are expected to increase 92% by 2035 from to increase 92% by 2035 from the 2002 levelthe 2002 level
•• If left unaddressed, by 2035 If left unaddressed, by 2035 congestion will clog many congestion will clog many major interstate corridorsmajor interstate corridors
National Highway System estimatedpeak period congestion (2020)
FHWA FHWA -- Office of Freight Management Office of Freight Management and Operations and Operations –– ObjectivesObjectives
•• Understand the magnitude and geography of freight Understand the magnitude and geography of freight moving on the nationmoving on the nation’’s transportation system, s transportation system, including international freight including international freight
•• Develop strategies, analytical tools, institutional Develop strategies, analytical tools, institutional arrangements, and professional capacities for all arrangements, and professional capacities for all levels of government to address freight movementlevels of government to address freight movement
•• Understand and promote the economic benefits of Understand and promote the economic benefits of freight transportationfreight transportation
•• Encourage innovative freight technology & operationsEncourage innovative freight technology & operations•• Enforce commercial vehicle size and weight Enforce commercial vehicle size and weight
requirementsrequirements
Measuring System PerformanceMeasuring System Performance
Strategic Objective Strategic Objective -- Global ConnectivityGlobal Connectivity““Facilitate a more efficient domestic and global Facilitate a more efficient domestic and global
transportation system that enables economic growth and transportation system that enables economic growth and developmentdevelopment””
GoalsGoals•• To reduce travel time in key highway freight corridors. To reduce travel time in key highway freight corridors. •• To reduce delays of commercial vehicles processed atTo reduce delays of commercial vehicles processed atNational Highway System border crossingsNational Highway System border crossings
Outcome MeasuresOutcome Measures•• Travel Time and Reliability on Freight Significant Travel Time and Reliability on Freight Significant
HighwaysHighways•• Border Crossing Time Border Crossing Time
What are Freight Performance What are Freight Performance Indicators?Indicators?
•• PointPoint--toto--point travel times on selected freightpoint travel times on selected freight--significant highways significant highways
•• Crossing times at international bordersCrossing times at international borders•• Condition of connectors between NHS and Condition of connectors between NHS and
intermodal terminalsintermodal terminals•• Cost of highway freight per tonCost of highway freight per ton--mile mile •• Cargo insurance ratesCargo insurance rates•• Customer satisfaction. Customer satisfaction. •• Hours of delay per 1,000 vehicle miles on Hours of delay per 1,000 vehicle miles on
selected freightselected freight--significant highways significant highways
http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/perform_meas/fpmtraveltime/index.htm
Freight Performance MeasurementFreight Performance Measurement –– Travel Travel Time on Freight Significant CorridorsTime on Freight Significant Corridors
•• What?What?•• Methodology use Trucks as ProbesMethodology use Trucks as Probes
•• Automatic Vehicle Automatic Vehicle Location(AVLLocation(AVL)/Satellite )/Satellite TechnologyTechnology
•• GPS Coordinates (Date and Time Stamped)GPS Coordinates (Date and Time Stamped)•• Unique Carrier IDUnique Carrier ID
•• How?How?•• Partnership with American Transportation Research Partnership with American Transportation Research
Institute, a Satellite Technology Vendors and Institute, a Satellite Technology Vendors and CarriersCarriers
•• Data Cleansing techniques allows collection of Data Cleansing techniques allows collection of collection data from all/most of the collection data from all/most of the vendo(svendo(s) carrier ) carrier subscribers (~300,000 vehicles)subscribers (~300,000 vehicles)
•• Where?Where?•• 25 Major US Interstates25 Major US Interstates•• Land Border CrossingsLand Border Crossings
•• 5 US/Canada Crossings5 US/Canada Crossings•• US/Mexico under developmentUS/Mexico under development
•• Why?Why?•• Provides a quantifiable basis to engage public Provides a quantifiable basis to engage public
and private sector and investigate and explore and private sector and investigate and explore causes of delaycauses of delay
•• One of several analytical tools that helps get One of several analytical tools that helps get us to solutions us to solutions –– target resources where target resources where greatest needs existsgreatest needs exists
Freight Performance Measurement Freight Performance Measurement –– Travel Travel Time on Freight Significant CorridorsTime on Freight Significant Corridors
25 Corridors25 Corridors
FPM Border Component (US/CN)FPM Border Component (US/CN)Data Collection Began 7/01/05 for 5 CrossingsData Collection Began 7/01/05 for 5 Crossings
Blaine (Pacific Highway): Blaine, WABlaine (Pacific Highway): Blaine, WAPembina: Pembina, NDPembina: Pembina, NDAmbassador Bridge: Detroit, MIAmbassador Bridge: Detroit, MIPeace Bridge: Buffalo, NYPeace Bridge: Buffalo, NYChamplain: Champlain, NYChamplain: Champlain, NY
Effort looks at crossings as well as transportation Effort looks at crossings as well as transportation network that supports the crossingsnetwork that supports the crossings
Data Collection at Data Collection at AmbassadorAmbassador
4 US Approaches
Michigan Route 3
Interstate 75
Interstate 94
Interstate 96
3 CN Approaches ON
Provincial 401 ON Provincial 3E.C. Row EXPY
•• Freight Significant CorridorsFreight Significant Corridors•• Average Operating Speeds (entire Average Operating Speeds (entire
Corridor)Corridor)•• Travel Time Reliability (Buffer Index)Travel Time Reliability (Buffer Index)
•• Borders (US/Canada)Borders (US/Canada)•• Total Crossing TimeTotal Crossing Time•• Crossing Time Reliability (Buffer Index)Crossing Time Reliability (Buffer Index)
Current MeasuresCurrent Measures --
What is travel time reliability?What is travel time reliability?
•• Consistency or dependability in travel Consistency or dependability in travel times measured from:times measured from:–– DayDay--toto--day; and/or day; and/or –– Across different times of dayAcross different times of day–– For Freight (for a trade lane, originFor Freight (for a trade lane, origin--
destination pair)destination pair)•• Not focused on typical delay (capacityNot focused on typical delay (capacity--
demand) so much as unexpected delaydemand) so much as unexpected delay
Buffer indexBuffer index
•• Definition: Definition: Extra timeExtra time (or time cushion) that should add to average (or time cushion) that should add to average travel time to ensure ontravel time to ensure on--time arrival at a given level of confidence time arrival at a given level of confidence (e.g. 95%, 90%)(e.g. 95%, 90%)
•• Buffer index (%) = Buffer index (%) =
•• Buffer time (hours) =buffer index (1.42) Buffer time (hours) =buffer index (1.42) ×× average travel time average travel time (22.69)(22.69)
95th95th-- percentile time (55hours) percentile time (55hours) ̶̶ average time(22.69 hours)average time(22.69 hours)average travel time (22.69hours)average travel time (22.69hours)
142%142%
For 95% onFor 95% on--time arrival you should add (buffer time)time arrival you should add (buffer time)
33 hours33 hoursto the average ofto the average of
22.69 hours22.69 hours
Planning time indexPlanning time index
•• Definition: Definition: Total timeTotal time a traveler should allow to ensure a traveler should allow to ensure onon--time arrivaltime arrival
•• Planning time index =Planning time index =
•• Results in index value >= 1 (3.93)Results in index value >= 1 (3.93)
•• Planning time (hours) = Planning time (hours) = planning time index (3.93) planning time index (3.93) ×× ideal or freeideal or free--flow travel flow travel
time (14 hours)time (14 hours)
95th95th--percentile travel time(55 hours)percentile travel time(55 hours)Ideal or freeIdeal or free--flow travel time (14 hours)flow travel time (14 hours)
With a desired onWith a desired on--time arrival of 95% ontime arrival of 95% on--time you time you should plan for (planning time)should plan for (planning time)
55 hours55 hours
I-5 I-10 I-45 I-65 I-70
Freight Corridor Reliability
20.80
30.78
6.82
11.14
20.26
35.55
6.67
18.90
13.07
18.31
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Intestate Freight Corridor
Buf
fer I
ndex
(Rel
iabi
lity)
2005 2006
•• Jeff Add the most appropriate truck Jeff Add the most appropriate truck parking slide and speaker notesparking slide and speaker notes
Other Travel Time MeasuresOther Travel Time Measures
•• Measures of average travel time Measures of average travel time –– Average travel time in peak period in major metro areas Average travel time in peak period in major metro areas –– citycity--toto--city travel timecity travel time–– shipper pointshipper point--toto--point travel timepoint travel time
•• Measures of delay (or added travel time) Measures of delay (or added travel time) –– hours of delay per 1000 vehiclehours of delay per 1000 vehicle--milemile–– percent of corridor experiencing AM/PM peak delay percent of corridor experiencing AM/PM peak delay
•• Reliability MeasuresReliability Measures–– Annual hours of incidentAnnual hours of incident--based delaybased delay–– Annual hours of workAnnual hours of work--zone based delayzone based delay–– Annual hours of weatherAnnual hours of weather--based delaybased delay
Confidence the Data Can be Applied inConfidence the Data Can be Applied inthe Following Areasthe Following Areas
•• Decision MakingDecision Making•• Project Analysis and PrioritizationProject Analysis and Prioritization•• Trend Analysis and Historical Data (e.g. for performance Trend Analysis and Historical Data (e.g. for performance
measurement, public information, engaging freight measurement, public information, engaging freight stakeholders)stakeholders)
•• Analysis of the effects of varying operational conditions Analysis of the effects of varying operational conditions on the network (e.g. weather, incidents, work zones) on the network (e.g. weather, incidents, work zones)
•• IInvestment Decisions at the National Levelnvestment Decisions at the National Level•• Investment Decisions at the State or Local LevelInvestment Decisions at the State or Local Level•• Transportation PlanningTransportation Planning
What We Heard From the StatesWhat We Heard From the States
Potential Value of Data
Very Valuable
46%SomewhatValuable
38%
No Value0%
Too Early to Tell or Not Enough Information To
Conclude16%
How Likely to Use
Extremely
Unlikely14%
Somewhat Unlikely
6%
NeitherLikely
nor Unlikely11%Somewhat
Likely31%
Very Likely38%
What We Heard From the StatesWhat We Heard From the States
Decision MakingDecision Making
What We Heard From the StatesWhat We Heard From the States
Project Analysis and Project Analysis and PrioritizationPrioritization
Extremely Confident
11%
Somewhat Confident
52%
Little or No Confidence
26%
Too Early to Tell or Not Enough Information To
Conclude11%
Extremely Confident
11%
Somewhat Confident
56%
Little or No Confidence
8%
Too Early to Tell or Not
Enough Information
To Conclude25%
Trend Trend Analysis/HistoricalAnalysis/HistoricalDataData
Analysis varying Analysis varying operational conditionsoperational conditions
Extremely Confident
42%
Somewhat Confident
44%
Little or No Confidence
6%
Too Early to Tell or Not
Enough Information To
Conclude8%
Extremely Confident
31%
Somewhat Confident
50%
Little or No Confidence
11%
Too Early to Tell or Not
Enough Information
To Conclude8%
What We Heard From the StatesWhat We Heard From the States
Investment Decisions Investment Decisions ––NationalNational
Investment DecisionsInvestment Decisions--State and LocalState and Local
Extremely Confident
31%
Somewhat Confident
41%
Little or No Confidence
11%
Too Early to Tell or Not
Enough Information
To Conclude17%
Extremely Confident
17%
Somewhat Confident
50%
Little or No Confidence
25%
Too Early to Tell or Not
Enough Information
To Conclude8%
What We Heard From the StatesWhat We Heard From the States
Transportation Planning
Extremely Confident
33%
Somewhat Confident
48%
Little or No Confidence
8%
Too Early to Tell or Not
Enough Information
To Conclude
11%
What We Heard From the StatesWhat We Heard From the States
Future ResearchFuture Research
• Collecting and analyzing data for more roadways (e.g. arterials, US Highways, State Highways)
• Building FPM tools and products based on user defined requirements
• Using FPM data as an input to transportation models (e.g. Freight Models, Travel Time Models)
• Collecting data for the other modes (e.g. rail, water, air)
• Improving the Visualization Tool (e.g. adding more layers on things such as weather, work zones, VMT, AADTT)
What We Heard From the StatesWhat We Heard From the States
Key Next StepsKey Next Steps•• Develop a WebDevelop a Web--based tool to disseminate data based tool to disseminate data ––
primary audiences are State DOTs and MPOsprimary audiences are State DOTs and MPOs–– DirectionalDirectional–– Time of DayTime of Day–– City PairsCity Pairs
•• Assess expanding beyond the interstate systemAssess expanding beyond the interstate system•• Enhance data by adding additional vendors/fleetsEnhance data by adding additional vendors/fleets•• Partner with public agencies and universities to apply Partner with public agencies and universities to apply
the resultsthe results–– Trend AnalysisTrend Analysis–– Demand ModelingDemand Modeling–– Forecasting ModelsForecasting Models–– Cost Benefit/AnalysisCost Benefit/Analysis–– Before and After AssessmentsBefore and After Assessments
•• Expand Border Data Collection to US/MX BorderExpand Border Data Collection to US/MX Border
Additional informationAdditional information
•• January 2006 report:January 2006 report:–– Travel Time Reliability: Making It There On Travel Time Reliability: Making It There On
Time, All The TimeTime, All The Time–– http://http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.govwww.ops.fhwa.dot.gov
•• Contacts:Contacts:–– Crystal Jones, FHWA, 202Crystal Jones, FHWA, 202--366366--29762976