crop diversity and climate change
TRANSCRIPT
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/31/ipcc-report-six-graphs-that-show-how-were-changing-the-worlds-climate
Source: Battisti, D.S., and R.L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future
food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 323, 240-244.
Luigi’s 6 graphs(+1 map) on CC and food
Summary of estimated impacts of observed climate changes on yields over 1960–2013 for 4 major crops in temperate and tropical regions.
Source: Page 7 - IPCC. 2014. “Summary for policymakers - Climate
Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and
Sectoral Aspects.” Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-
report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf.
Summary of projected changes in crop yields due to climate change.
Source: Page 18 - IPCC. 2014. “Summary for policymakers - Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and
Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects.” Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment
Report of the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Available at:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf.
Meeting the Global Food Demand of the Future by Engineering Crop Photosynthesis and Yield Potential
Long, Marshall-Colon, Xin-Guang Zhu (2016)http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2015.03.019
Rippke U, Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A, Vermeulen SJ, Parker L, Mer F, Diekkrüger B, Challinor AJ and Howden M. 2016. Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-
Saharan African agriculture. Nature Climate Change.http://agro.biodiver.se/2016/03/transforming-agriculture-in-africa/
Farmers in 60% of the current African bean area, and about 30% of that of the other crops, will need to think about some other crop at some time during the 21st century.
technological innovations to
generate weather dataForecasting From satellite to cell
phone
Risk insurance Rapid payments so assets are protected
Productive social safety nets
Build assets, protect from extremes
That cope with extremes
Technologies and practices
Clim
ate
Smar
t Agr
icul
ture
technological innovations to
generate weather data
Clim
ate
Smar
t Agr
icul
tureCreating diversity
of land uses
Changing and diversifying diets
Crop diversification and “climate-smart” species and cultivars
On-farm biodiversity,agroforestry, intercropping
That cope with extremes
Technologies and practices
http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/344712/icode/
Actually better to make sure agriculture as a whole is part of
climate change adaptation!
New varieties in farmers’ fields
Breeding
Crop diversity
Seed systems
Genebanks
Increased yields, resilience etc.
Adaptation to climate changeFood and nutritional security
Indicative activities• Prioritize species, varieties, breeds and populations
(including useful wild relatives) for conservation on the basis of climate change expectations...
• Collect information on distribution and frequency of priority species, crop varieties, animal breeds and forestry and fish populations...
• Develop and implement crop, animal, tree or fish species improvement programmes to provide materials adapted to climate...
• Provide long-term support for evaluation and use of wild relatives.
• Improve GRFA information systems and access to them.
Crop Wild Relatives
Svalbard, Norway 78° North, 15°East
a) rice (Oryza sativa); b) Oryza longistaminata—drought tolerance; c) Oryza coarctata—tolerance to salinity
d) barley (Hordeum vulgare); e) Hordeum spontaneum—drought tolerance) f) Hordeum bulbosum—disease resistance, drought, salt, and frost tolerance
g) chickpea (Cicer arietinum); h) Cicer reticulatum—drought and heat tolerance; i) Cicer echinospermum—drought and heat tolerance
j) sunflower (Helianthus annuus); k) Helianthus paradoxus—tolerance to salinity; l) Helianthus argophyllus—tolerance to drought
Pool Potential ConfirmedPrimary 314 268
Secondary 690 531Tertiary 702 391
1B 18 12 31 43 26 54 27 5
Not in pool 165 204"Crop Taxa" (Crop itself) 44 22
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary 1B 2 3 4
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400ConfirmedPotential
Class Potential Confirmed TotalAbiotic Stress 497 108 605
Agronomic Trait 52 332 384Biotic Stress 1331 656 1987Fertility Trait 11 214 225
Morphological Trait 7 12 19Phenological Trait 12 38 50
Quality Trait 107 72 179
Abiotic Stre
ss
Agronomic T
rait
Biotic Stre
ss
Fertility
Trait
Morphological
Trait
Phenologic
al Trai
t
Quality
Trait
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Confirmed
Potential
Pool Potential ConfirmedAbiotic Stress
Agronomic Trait
Biotic Stress Fertility Trait
Morphological Trait
Phenological Trait
Quality Trait
Primary 314 268 108 83 302 31 7 13 38Secondary 690 531 264 122 698 62 5 13 57
Tertiary 702 391 164 69 692 95 5 16 531B 18 1 0 1 14 0 0 0 42 31 4 1 5 27 0 0 1 13 26 5 11 1 12 4 0 1 24 27 5 8 1 19 3 0 0 1
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary 1B 2 3 4
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Quality TraitPhenological TraitMorphological TraitFertility TraitBiotic StressAgronomic TraitAbiotic Stress
Primary Abiotic Stress
Agronomic Trait
Biotic Stress
Fertility Trait
Morphological Trait
Phenological Trait
Quality Trait
Secondary Abiotic StressAgronomic TraitBiotic StressFertility TraitMorphological TraitPhenological TraitQuality Trait
Tertiary Abiotic Stress
Agronomic Trait
Biotic Stress
Fertility Trait
Morphological Trait
Phenological Trait
Quality Trait
Alfalfa
Apple Rice
Bambara
Groundnut
Banan
aBarl
ey
Common BeanCarr
ot
Chickpea
Cowpea
Eggplan
t/Auberg
ine
Faba B
ean
Finge
r Mille
t
Grass p
ea/Common ch
icklin
gLen
tilOat
Garden
pea
Pearl M
illet
Pigeonpea
Potato
Rye
Sorgh
um
Sunflower
Sweet
Potato
Common vetch
Wheat0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Quality TraitPhenological TraitMorphological TraitFertility TraitBiotic StressAgronomic TraitAbiotic Stress
Alfalfa
Apple Rice
Bambara
Groundnut
Banan
aBarl
ey
Common BeanCarr
ot
Chickpea
Cowpea
Eggplan
t/Auberg
ine
Faba B
ean
Finge
r Mille
t
Grass p
ea/Common ch
icklin
gLen
tilOat
Garden
pea
Pearl M
illet
Pigeonpea
Potato Rye
Sorgh
um
Sunflower
Sweet
Potato
Common vetch
Wheat0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
ConfirmedPotential
How much is enough?
Density of records Density of seed collections
Areas where gaps exist in ex situ collections for multiple taxa
Determine gaps in collections
Model distributions
Gather taxonomic data
Gather occurrence
data
Make collecting recommendations
Georeferencing
TaxonomicGeographicEcological
How much is enough?
Definition of crops and crop wild relative taxa to analyze:– 81 crop genepools globally important for food security.– 1079 crop wild relative taxa (GP1 and GP2 + less closely
related taxa with proven and potential uses in breeding)
Vincent, H. et al. Biological Conservation. 167, 265-275 (2013)
Modelling the distribution of CWR– MaxEnt: modelling algorithm
• 19 climatic variables– 5 x 5km resolution– Native range of each taxa
Measuring 3 gap analysis metrics– Sampling Representativeness Score– Geographic Representativeness
Score– Ecological Representativeness Score
Identifying collecting and conservation priorities
Picture credit: https://scienceasaverb.wordpress.com/2010/10/29/introduction-to-ecological-niche-modeling-environmental-niche-modeling-species-distribution-modeling-part-two-what-is-niche-modeling/
Priorities for conservation
High priority
taxa
for c
ollecti
on
Mid priority
taxa
for c
ollecti
on
Low prio
rity ta
xa fo
r colle
ction
No furth
er colle
ction is
required
0100200300400500600700800900
No.
of C
WR
taxa
71%
Broom milletFinger milletQuinoaRiceMaize
Foxtail milletOat
BarleyFoxtail milletRyeWheat
Finger milletPearl milletRiceSorghum
Foxtail milletPearl milletRiceSorghum
Collecting and using CWRAdapting Agriculture to Climate Change
• Support from Norwegian Government• $50 million, 10 years• 29 crop genepools (Annex 1)• Started in Jan 2011• Partnership with Millennium Seed Bank, Kew• 20-25 national programs• Capacity building
CWR in situ 1 Research 2 Collecting 3 Conservation
4 Pre-breeding
New varieties
http://www.cwrdiversity.org/
Leaf area in some wild species and hybrids is less affected by drought conditions than in domesticated types.
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
140,00
Mel Ang Mel x Ang Das Mel x Das Ins Mel x Ins Lin Mel x Lic
Leaf
are
a (c
m2)
Genotypes
Estimated leaf area
Control
Drought
PEG 7%* * **
*
Benefit Sharing Fund
• 1st call (2009): 5 projects $500K• 2nd call (2011): 19 projects $5.5M• 3rd call (2014): $10M
ITPGRFA & Climate Change
http://www.planttreaty.org/content/where-are-we-working
Thank you
Collecting and using CWRAdapting Agriculture to Climate Change
Luigi Guarino [email protected] Crop Trust https://www.croptrust.org/
CWR Project http://www.cwrdiversity.org/ Agricultural Biodiversity Weblog http://agro.biodiver.se/
Twitter https://twitter.com/AgroBioDiverse