critical energy choices for the next administration

7/31/2019 Critical Energy Choices for the Next Administration

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www.AmericanSecurityProject.org 1100 New York Avenue, NW Suite 710W Washington, DC

Critical Energy Choicesor the Next Administration

October 2012

Introduction

Energy is the lieblood o a modern economy. How America uses, generates, and producethat energy is decided by a combination o economic and political choices that are made ovethe span o decades.

Te questions the next President will ace are more complex and dicult than we have everaced: climate change, national security, prices, and new technologies all intersect to ensurethere are very ew win-win choices.

Congress and the Administration will have to crat compromises with the goal o ensuring along-term energy system that is more secure, stable, and sustainable than todays.

Over the last our years, the United States has seen the beginning o a great change inhow it uses and produces energy.

Part o this change is due to government policy, particularly the impact o the 2009stimulus on accelerating clean energy. Te other part, however, is due to the impacts o newtechnologies, especially hydraulic racturing and horizontal drilling, which have expanded

Americas accessible ossil uel resources.

Due to these changes, this report analyzes very dierent choices than what a similar analysiswould have written in 2008.

In ossil uels alone, the narrative has changed rom being about rising oil imports, decliningresources, and increased prices to questions about how to manage abundance.

wo things have not changed over the last our years

First, consumer energy prices, petroleum products particularly, have remained high. Secondthe Middle East remains the most important center o energy aairs: small changes in theregional balance o power have caused two sustained oil price spikes in the past two years.


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AmericAn security project

Until the U.S. no longer depends solely on oil or transportation, questions o energy security will always begwith Middle Eastern oil.

Meanwhile, long term challenges remain.

Even though neither candidate has made it central to his campaign, climate change is an issue that will not g

away: we cannot argue with chemistry and nature, and the longer we wait, the worse it will get.

Likewise, even though we suddenly have access to more oil and natural gas, the worlds population continuto grow, and developing countries economic growth is putting more pressure on energy than ever.

Te world will need sustainable alternatives to ossil uels and America can lead in the research andevelopment necessary to get there.

Critical Energy Choices

How to Use Americas New-Found Fossil Fuel Abundance

How to Address Climate Change

Stability in the Middle East Stemming Disaster

Renewable EnergyScientic Research into Next Generation Energy


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How to Use Americas New-Found Fossil FuelAbundance

Americas domestic oil and natural gas industries have undergone a sea change over the last ew years, with

experts optimistic that the United States could become sel-sucient in both oil and gas production withina decade.

Natural Gas

Advances in hydraulic racturing and horizontal drilling have revolutionized the natural gas industry. In 2011,the U.S. production o 28 trillion cubic eet o natural gas was the highest on record, and it makes Americaby ar the largest producer o natural gas in the world.1

With the country awash in gas, prices have plummeted.

As a result, electric utilities are rapidly switching rom burning coal to natural gas in order to generateelectricity. In April 2012, natural gas generated 32% o the nations electricity, equaling coals share in electricitygeneration or the rst time ever.2

Te market determines this uel switching, but the next administration still aces an important set o politicalchoices: what should America do with the natural gas windall? Te answer to this question has sparkedintense debate in recent months.

First, with natural gas prices etching as much as $18 per million Btu (MMBtu) in Asia while prices in theU.S. hover in the $2-$3.50/MMBtu range, the natural gas industry wants ederal regulators to allow the

liqueaction and exportation o domestic natural gas. Tis requires licensing rom the government.

Te next administration will need to decide whether or not to license natural gas exports. Te benets areobvious: exporting LNG will improve the trade balance, create employment in natural gas production, andcould create a geopolitical dividend by undercutting Russian inuence over energy supplies to some o ourkey allies.

A second option would be to use natural gas to uel our nations transportation sector. Under current prices,using compressed natural gas in cars and trucks is considerably cheaper than gasoline.3 While natural gas isused sparingly in some municipal bus eets and trucks, the transportation sector is almost entirely dependent

on petroleum uels.

Te next administration could implement policies to begin to use our natural gas bounty or our nationsautomobiles by promoting reueling inrastructure and incentives to adopt natural gas vehicles.

A third option or natural gas would be to use it to help spark a manuacturing renaissance in the UnitedStates.


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As a eedstock or a variety o industrial products, low natural gas prices are already bolstering the manuacturisector. According to Dow Chemical, 91 new manuacturing projects have either begun or have been propos

within the U.S. because o cheap natural gas projects that total over $70 billion in investment and may creathree million jobs.4

In a globalized economy, low natural gas prices make America a much more competitive place or compan

to operate.

Unconventional Oil Production

Te same technological breakthroughs that underpinned the shale gas revolution are working their way throuthe domestic oil industry.

With huge increases in production rom the Bakkenormation in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford in exas,U.S. oil production has reached its highest levels since the1990s.5 Te surge in production has ignited optimismover Americas ability to produce enough oil to meet all itsenergy needs by the end o the decade.

Te next President will need to make a decision on theKeystone XL pipeline.

Canada holds the worlds third largest reserves o oil,6 but 98% o those reserves are in the orm o viscooil sands.7 Oil sands are highly carbon-intensive, and the nature o its dirty production process has caussubstantial opposition to the Keystone XL pipeline. Te pipeline would carry oil sands rom Canada to tGul Coast (the southern leg has already been approved). Te next administration will need to decide wheth

the northern route will move orward.

While approving the Keystone XL will bring more oil sands to market, much o it could be re-exported rothe Gul to other countries.8 Prices at the pump will not be signicantly impacted. Te next President wneed to weigh these marginal benets against the cost o increased greenhouse gas emissions rom expandinoil sands production.

Reducing Oil Dependence

While the outlook or domestic oil production has dramatically improved over the last our years, oil dema

still remains a key vulnerability or our economy. Every day, the United States burns over 18 million barrels oil, by ar the most in the world.9

Te next administration aces several critical choices on how to diversiy our uel sources or the transportatisector.

First, the recent doubling o the corporate average uel economy (CAFE) standards is a good example o


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policy that will reduce our dependence on oil, improve our economy, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.More policies to improve eciency in our nations cars and trucks will make us more secure.

Second, the next administration could lay out policies to incentivize the use o alternative sources biouels,compressed natural gas, electric vehicles, and mass transit.

Tird, a push or a price on carbon could cut into oil demand, while at the same time spur development incleaner alternatives.

Conclusion

Te boom in ossil uel production over the last our years gives Americans the perception o greater energysecurity.

Moving orward, key decisions will need to be made on how to manage this new-ound bounty, while at thesame time protecting the environment.

In reality, however, American dependence on oil presents national security challenges.

It drains our economy by transerring hundreds o billions o dollars abroad each year, 10 it contributes toclimate change, and it leaves us vulnerable to price volatility.

How to balance ossil uel production while breaking our oil dependence will be a key challenge.


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How to Address Climate ChangeClimate change is scientic act; it is real and poses a clear danger not only to the United States but to thentire world.

Climate change creates more than just new weather patterns; it also presents deep and broad challenges U.S. security including unprecedented levels o drought, extreme ooding, wildres, ood security and watavailability.

Its eects on our global allies as well as the direct eects it has on our domestic agriculture, inrastructureconomy and public health necessitate a strategic plan in response.

Te next administration, whether Republican or Democratic, will ace a global climate that is changing ataster rate than ever beore, threatening the stability and prosperity o the entire world.

However, certain measures can be taken to minimize the eects o climate change.

Measures to Reduce Emissions

As the worlds second largest emitter about 5,638 million metric tons o carbon emitted rom energeneration in 2010 (18% o global emissions) 11 the U.S. will play an important role in determining wheththe world can successully prevent dangerous climate change. Te United States still gets about 83% o energy rom ossil uels, the main drivers o climate change.12

Any plan that looks to reduce emissions will require either reducingthe total amount o energy produced (either through gains in

eciency, or absolute declines in energy used) or replacing a largeportion o energy production with emissions-ree power.

Te next administration will have clear choices to make regardingthe governments role in reducing national emissions.

Decisions on how strictly to legislate and enorce pollution limitshave signicant impacts on decisions about how to produce energy.For example, although the cap-and-trade program proposed in the

American Clean Energy and Security Act o 2009, or Waxman-

Markey, died in the Senate, the next administration should considerother options to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Earlier this year the Obama administration issued uel economy car standards that will raise automobile ueciency to the equivalent o 54.5 miles per gallon on average by 2025. 13 Tis type o action lowegreenhouse gas emissions, reduces American dependence on oil, and insulates consumers rom gas privolatility.


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Another major decision point ocuses on the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and what role it willplay in regulating the emissions o ossil uels.Under the legal requirements o the Clean Air Act and Supreme Court rulings, the EPA has increased itsregulatory involvement over a range o issues including toxic air pollution rom power plants and greenhousegas emissions.

While much o the next Presidents authority over environmental protections is limited by previous judicialdecisions, the rigor with which the administration exercises its authority through the EPA gives it signicantinuence.

International Negotiations

How to negotiate in international agreements designed to reduce the eects o climate change is another keydecision-area or the next administration.

International climate change negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) will continue, and the next administration will need to decide how aggressively it wantsto pursue an international agreement.

Te Copenhagen Accord, though not legally binding, commits the United States to a continuation o theKyoto Protocol, a Green Climate Fund to combat climate change, technology transer to developing nations,

and emissions pledges.14

Tese types o international agreements will require urther commitment by the nextadministration i they are to remain in place.

Te ongoing UNFCCC process, including the next Conerence o the Parties meeting this coming Novemberin Doha, is establishing new nancial and emissions commitments that the United States will be asked to bea party to.


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Most notable, however, is an international agreement committing nations to orge a binding internationaccord by 2015 or entry into orce in 2020.

Te next administration will be asked by international partners to lead in these negotiations, and take aggressisteps to complete an agreement.

Conclusion

Climate change presents serious national security risks to both global and domestic security. It will alexacerbate regional and local tensions in hot zones around the world, likely drawing attention rom th

American military.

At home, climate change will cause great harm to Americas inrastructure, agriculture and economy. It direcaects Americas homeland security and the integrity o American military installations both at home anabroad.

Although international negotiations on mitigation eorts have proved intractable, steps need to be taken deal with adaptation. Many o the eects o climate change are already set to occur, and American policymakeneed to deal with those consequences.

Te U.S. government has a variety o ways to prepare or climate change including greater collaboration witlocal agencies, strengthening energy and physical inrastructure, and promoting awareness o the eects climate change.

It is dangerous to allow greenhouse gas emissions to grow unchecked.

o meet these challenges will require policymakers to make some decisions and set some priorities that will n

always be popular. But, in the long-term, they are critical or national security.


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Stability in the Middle East Stemming DisasterGasoline prices in America have risen and uctuated wildly in recent years.15 While U.S. oil productioncontinues to expand, oil is a global commodity.

Oil prices are set on the global market.

A supply disruption in the arthest corner o the world can cause prices to spike anywhere in America.

Te Middle East still looms large in the energy world, comprising 30% o world oil production.16

With civil war still raging in Syria, ripples rom the Arab Spring, the threat o war with Iran, civil strie inYemen, terrorism, and a range o other issues, oil markets will remain volatile.17

Iran

Perhaps no issue is as pressing as the threat o armed conict with Iran, which could cause dramatic economicdisruptions in global oil markets.18 Te threat o war has already added a price premium to oil, a premium thatcould increase i Iran does acquire a nuclear weapon.19 Nearly 35% o seaborne traded oil travels through theStraits o Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to cut o in the event o a conict.20

Te closing o the straits would send shockwaves through the oil markets, raisingcosts domestically and having dire eects on an already ragile global economy.

Te next administration will need to careully weigh the issues.

Arab Spring

Te Arab Spring has put global oil markets at risk.

Tese uprisings have been unpredictable and had dramatic consequences on the region. Although thegovernments o several major oil and gas producers avoided losing control o their populaces during the heighto the unrest, they were also aected by the regions turmoil. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain used a combination oscal stimulus, appeals to religious leaders, and violent policing to suppress uprisings within their borders.21

While the Arab Spring seems to have passed, the same conditions that led to popular revolt still exist. Analystshave seen Kuwait and Oman, both major oil producing countries, as being vulnerable to these uprisings. 22

Te question is how long can the current stability be maintained? Should another uprising occur, the UnitedStates must determine i it will continue to support the monarchs o these countries in the wake o humanrights abuses and the absence o authentic democracy.


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Te next administration must also be prepared to navigate these relationships, seeking stability while at thsame time promoting opportunities or millions o the disenchanted in the region.

errorism

errorist groups, including Al-Qaeda and its aliates, have demonstrated their interest in disrupting oil ow

in the past in order to inict economic damage on its oes.23

For example, in 2011, the number o attacks oenergy related inrastructure peaked with 438 reported incidents.24

In 2002, Al Qaeda launched an attack against a French oil tanker, dumping 90,000 barrels o oil into thGul o Aden.25 In a 2005 incident, Saudi police assaulted an Al Qaeda linked compound in the city o ADamman nding an arsenal o small arms and documents necessary or gaining access to a local gas and oacility.26

In one o the most dramatic attacks on oil energy inrastructure, on February 24, 2006, suicide bombeattempted to detonate two vehicles lled with explosives at the Abqaiq oil acility. Te attack was thwarte

but it roiled oil markets.

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In another example, ollowing the raid on Osama Bin Ladens Pakistani compounHomeland Security ocials announced that they had discovered intelligence that Al-Qaeda had an interest targeting oil production sites and tankers across the Middle East and North Arica.28

Te threat rom terrorism against oil and gas is real and has been demonstrated.

Currently, instability in the Middle East adds a risk premium to the price o oil. Should a major attack succeethat premium will skyrocket.

Conclusion

Te ragile stability in the Middle East will continue to dominate American oreign policy in the neadministration. Te next president must recognize that war with Iran will have an adverse eect on the globenergy market.

Additionally, major energy producers in the region are at risk rom domestic upheaval and terrorism. Itunclear how long the monarchs o these countries will stay in power or i a new popular uprising will threattheir reign.

Te U.S. should use diplomatic channels to ensure that human rights abuses are prevented, and that thleaders o these countries can meet the demands o their people.

Working with these Arab countries to maintain the security o oil production and transportation is vital Americas energy security.


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Renewable EnergyRenewable energy is a crucial part o decreasing Americas dependence on ossil uels and improving its energysecurity.

An economy that relies on renewable power or its energy needs will be able to manage its oreign policy

independently o how it utilizes energy.

Renewable energy has made signicant progress in recent years.

From June 2011 to June 2012, electricity generationrom solar grew by 94.7%.29 Moreover, the shareo electricity generated rom non-hydro renewableenergy doubled between 2008 and 2012, rom 3%o the total to 6%.30

Te Department o Deense (DOD) is also makingheadway in clean energy usage and investment.In 2009, the Secretary o the Navy, Ray Mabusannounced the goal o supplying 50% o the Navysenergy needs rom renewables.31 Other serviceshave similar goals.

Proo o progress or renewable energy can be seen in the dramatic declines in costs or manuacturing. Teaverage price o solar panels has declined by about 75% in the last three years32 and the costs o wind powerhave halved since 2009.33

As renewable energy continues to grow, the next administration will need to design policies to promote morerenewable energy, but also policies to improve transmission capacity and to roll out smart grid technology todeal with variable output in power.

Increasing Renewable Energy

Tere are a variety o policies that the next administration could support to build on the gains that renewableenergy has already made. First, a national renewable portolio standard (RPS) or clean energy standard (which

would include credits or nuclear power and natural gas) would create market demand or renewable energy.

Tere has been some semblance o bipartisan support or such a policy in the past.

Tirty three states plus the District o Columbia have an RPS; a ederal RPS would create one nationalstandard.34

Feed in aris (FIs) guaranteeing an elevated price or renewable energy have proven successul in


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Europe at installing renewable energy capacity.35 Such a policy would likely work in the United States as welbut could prove contentious.

Implementing a price on carbon pollution, as discussed inthe above section on climate change, would also stimulatedemand or renewable energy as a lower cost alternative.

Interest in carbon pricing has ebbed in owed in recent years,but cropped up recently as part o discussions over decitreduction.

Te next administration could pursue some version o carbonpricing to bolster renewable energy.

Conclusion

Renewable energy technology has improved and prices have allen over the past our years, and the governmenhas shown a greater dedication to advance renewables.

While subsidies or renewable energy are unlikely to continue beyond the expiration o key policies due tscal constraints, there remain several options to promote renewable energy.

Fossil uels will remain a part o our energy mix or many years. However, renewable energy in both thtransportation and electric power sectors will improve Americas energy security, support economic growthand reduce the threat o climate change.


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Scientic Research into Next Generation EnergyA true test o the next administration will be its approach to Americas uture energy choices.

While Americas recent natural gas boom is a welcome development, long-term energy security challengesremain. First and oremost is Americas position as a global leader in scientic research and innovation.

Recent data reveals a startling research and development (R&D) investment gap, indicating that America isalling behind.

Americas uture energy security depends upon developing next generation energy sources such as nuclear u-sion, but to develop and commercialize these sources, proper scientic research is necessary.

Te next administration has the opportunity to cement Americas uture growthand to ensure next generation energy security. o do so, the administration mustproperly invest in scientic research, it must take the lead in raising American com-

petitiveness, and it must support next generation energy.

Te Importance o Scientic Research or Economic Growth

Te prosperity o Americas economy depends upon its ability to innovate, andalmost all innovation is a result o breakthroughs in undamental science and re-search.36

Scientic research and innovation allow American companies to remain competi-tive in the international market while also spurring economic growth. Between

1998 and 2007, R&D accounted or roughly 6.3% o average annual growth inreal GDP (GDP adjusted or ination) and 6.6% between 2002 and 2007.37

Te United States total R&D spending (both public and private) is currentlyabout 2.85% o GDP; which puts the U.S. in 9th place globally, behind countrieslike Japan, Korea, Sweden, and Denmark.38

Te United States should invest more in scientic research in order to properly har-ness Americas resources and capital, to create the jobs and industries o the uture,and to ensure that America will remain competitive in the years to come.

Te Risk to American Competitiveness due to a lack o Leadership

Recent data shows that the United States is losing its competitive edge in scientic innovation and R&D.

Te United States dropped two places, rom 5th to 7th, in the World Economic Forums 2012-2013 GlobalCompetitiveness Report.39 Tese numbers are reinorced by the act that the U.S. ranks 27th among devel-


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oped nations in the proportion o college students receiving undergraduate degrees in science and engineeing.40

Te United States achieved much o its economic success due to its ability to manuacture and trade high-tecproducts; however, as o 2002, Americas trade balance in high-tech products became negative.41

It is clear that America is alling behind and most U.S. citizens agree. According to a 2011 Research!Ameripoll, 77% o Americans agree that the U.S. losing its competitive edge in science, technology, and innovation

What is missing is decisive action rom Americas leadership.

Te next administration will need to create an atmosphere hospi-table to scientic research, to reinvest more in scientic innovation,and to reorm American immigration policies that orce some o thebrightest scientists to seek work elsewhere.

Next Generation Energy: Fusion Power

Over the long-term, the world will need to develop the next genera-tion energy technologies that can produce power that is sae, clean,reliable and abundant.

Fusion energy holds this promise. Fusion energy is produced byorcing together the atomic nuclei o deuterium and tritium (twoorms o hydrogen) to orm helium.43

One gram o usion uel could yield 90,000 kilowatt hours o energy (it would take 10 million pounds o coto match this energy yield).44

Fusion reactions produce no greenhouse gases and minimal waste, maing usion energy environmentally sae. Fusion power plants also hold nrisk o meltdown and, as the plants use no uranium or plutonium, theare minimal risks o weapons prolieration.

Although obstacles remain, scientists believe they are on the path to commercializing usion energy. However, it is estimated that making usiopower commercially viable would require an investment o $35 billio

over a 15 year period ($2.33 billion per year).45

Tis is no small sum o money, but as a comparison, the Apollo progracost $98 billion over 14 years and the Manhattan project required aproximately $22 billion over 5 years.46 Other countries, in particulChina and South Korea, are eager to win the race to commercialize sion.

PPPL LX--A view through the Princeton Plaics Laboratorys Lithium okamak Experim

by Elle Starkman/Princeton Plasma Physics LOce o Comm

NIF Laser Bay--Seen rom above, each o NIFs twoidentical laser bays has two clusters o 48 beamlines,one on either side o the utility spine running downthe middle o the bay. Credit: Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory


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Fusion is worth the investment, both to provideclean, sae, and ecient energy, and to ensure

American energy security.

Conclusion

Scientic research is essential to Americaseconomic growth and its uture energy security.

Tere is a strong link between R&D spendingand GDP growth, and scientic innovations allow

America to remain competitive.

Decisive leadership is needed in order to ensurethat scientic research receives sucientinvestment.

Te next administration will ace many challenges,but perhaps none aects long-term energy securityas much as choosing to invest in usion energy.

Fusion energy may be criticized by some as beingcostly, but its potential reward is astounding.

With proper investment America could obtain aclean, sae, cheap, and energy independentuture.


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Authors

Andrew Holland, Senior Fellow

Nick Cunningham, Policy Analyst

Martin Bee, Adjunct Junior Fellow

Galen Petruso, Adjunct Junior Fellow

Xander Vagg, Adjunct Junior Fellow

Yong Wang, Adjunct Junior Fellow

FURHER READING

Reports and Papers o the American Security Project aboutEnergy Security

Americas Energy Choices: 2012 EditionMarch, 2012

Te report sets out how a range o energy options or Americas uture contributes to U.S. energy make-up and howour business and political leaders should weigh the competing priorities o energy security, economic stability, andenvironmental sustainability when making decisions.

Pay Now, Pay Later: A State-by-State Assessment o the Costs o Climate ChangeMay, 2011

Te American Security Project released a series o 50 reports which analyze and project possible economic lossesin some cases, gainson a state-by-state basis as a result o unmitigated climate change.

Ending Our Dependence on OilMay, 2010

Te report argues that to stop oil dependence, we must invest in inrastructure that gives Americans sae andconvenient alternatives to driving, improve the uel economy o our cars, and develop the next generation o
http://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2012/americas-energy-choices-2012-edition/http://americansecurityproject.org/news/2011/report-series-pay-now-pay-later-a-state-by-state-assessment-of-the-costs-of-climate-change/http://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2010/asp-and-sierra-club-release-joint-report-outlining-dangers-of-our-reliance-on-foreign-oil-and-the-need-for-a-new-transportation-infrastructure/http://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2010/asp-and-sierra-club-release-joint-report-outlining-dangers-of-our-reliance-on-foreign-oil-and-the-need-for-a-new-transportation-infrastructure/http://americansecurityproject.org/news/2011/report-series-pay-now-pay-later-a-state-by-state-assessment-of-the-costs-of-climate-change/http://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2012/americas-energy-choices-2012-edition/


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advanced biouels.

Ofshore Oil Drilling in the ArcticAugust, 2012

Tis paper evaluates several reasons why the rush by oil companies into the Arctic should be considered more closely.

Counteracting Chinese Hegemony in the South China SeaAugust, 2012

Tis ASP Perspectives paper highlights the reasons or increased Chinese involvement in the region, and thediplomatic and military strategies being implemented satiate its economic demands.

Cause and Efect: U.S. Gasoline PricesApril, 2012

Tis ASP Perspectives paper examines the causes o Americas soaring gasoline prices and underscores that the priceo gas is intimately interconnected with crude oil prices, which are set by global markets.

Climate Change and Immigration: Warnings or Americas Southern BorderSeptember, 2010

Tis ASP Perspectives paper highlights the likely eects o climate change on immigration along the US southernborder.

FAC SHEESArctic Climate and EnergyAugust, 2012

Tis Fact Sheet summarizes key developments in the Arctic, and discusses all aspects o Arctic energy development.

A New Discourse: Climate Change in the Face o a Shiting U.S. Energy PortolioAugust, 2012

Tis Fact Sheet summarizes key developments to the natural gas industry, and clarifes what they mean or climatechange discourse and mitigation.

Bio Fuels and National SecurityMarch, 2012

Tis Fact Sheet shows the importance o the U.S. Department o Deenses investment in developing a domesticbiouels industry that can compete with oil.
http://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2012/offshore-oil-drilling-in-the-arctic/http://americansecurityproject.org/ASP%20Reports/Ref%200074%20-%20Counteracting%20Chinese%20Hegemony%20in%20the%20South%20China%20Sea.pdfhttp://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2012/cause-and-effect-u-s-gasoline-prices/http://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2010/climate-change-and-immigration-warnings-for-americas-southern-border/http://c/Documents%20and%20Settings/aholland/Local%20Settings/Temporary%20Internet%20Files/Content.Outlook/F4SPC1FV/FACT%20SHEET:%20Arctic%20Climate%20and%20Energyhttp://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2012/a-new-discourse-climate-change-in-the-face-of-a-shifting-u-s-energy-portfolio/http://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2012/fact-sheet-bio-fuels-and-national-security/http://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2012/fact-sheet-bio-fuels-and-national-security/http://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2012/a-new-discourse-climate-change-in-the-face-of-a-shifting-u-s-energy-portfolio/http://c/Documents%20and%20Settings/aholland/Local%20Settings/Temporary%20Internet%20Files/Content.Outlook/F4SPC1FV/FACT%20SHEET:%20Arctic%20Climate%20and%20Energyhttp://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2010/climate-change-and-immigration-warnings-for-americas-southern-border/http://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2012/cause-and-effect-u-s-gasoline-prices/http://americansecurityproject.org/ASP%20Reports/Ref%200074%20-%20Counteracting%20Chinese%20Hegemony%20in%20the%20South%20China%20Sea.pdfhttp://americansecurityproject.org/featured-items/2012/offshore-oil-drilling-in-the-arctic/


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Endnotes

1. Energy Inormation Administration. (2012, September 28). Natural Gas. U.S. Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals. Retrievedtober 2012, rom EIA web site: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010us2a.htm

2. Energy Inormation Administration. (2012, July 6). oday In Energy. Retrieved October 2012, rom EIA web site: http://w

eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cm?id=69903. Siegel, J. (2012, June 4). Natural Gas Vehicles Will Kill the Electric Car. Retrieved October 2012, rom Energy & Capital:

http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/natural-gas-vehicle-opportunities/2233

4. Krass, C., & Lipton, E. (2012, October 20). Ater the Boom in Natural Gas. Te New York imes, p. BU1.

5. Energy Inormation Administration. (2012, September 28). Petroleum & Other Liquids. U.S. Field Production o Crude Retrieved October 2012, rom EIA web site:http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeaHandler.ashx?n=PE&s=MCRFPUS1&

6. Energy Inormation Administration. (2012, September 28). International Energy Statistics. Petroleum Reserves. Retrievedtober 2012, rom EIA web site: http://www.eia.gov/capps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cm?tid=5&pid=57&aid=6

7. Energy Inormation Administration. (2012, September 17). Country Analysis Brie: Canada. Retrieved October 2012, romweb site: http://www.eia.gov/countries/analysisbries/Canada/canada.pd

8. Kretzmann, S. (2011, September). Report: Exporting Energy Security: Keystone XL Exposed. Retrieved October 2012, rom

Price o Oil web site: http://priceooil.org/2011/08/31/report-exporting-energy-security-keystone-xl-exposed/9. Energy Inormation Administration. (2012, September). International Energy Statistics. Petroleum Consumption. Retriev

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10. Securing Americas Future Energy. (2012). U.S. Oil Dependence. Te 5th Annual ransportation & Inrastructure ConventWashington DC: SAFE. http://www.transportationsummit.com/documents/c12-RonaldMinsk.pd

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Bldg a nw Aa Aal

Te American Security Project (ASP) is a nonpartisan initiative to educate

the American public about the changing nature o national security in the

21st century.

Gone are the days when a nations strength could be measured by bombers

and battleships. Security in this new era requires a New American Arsenal

harnessing all o Americas strengths: the orce o our diplomacy; the might o

our military; the vigor o our economy; and the power o our ideals.

We believe that America must lead other nations in the pursuit o our

common goals and shared security. We must conront international

challenges with all the tools at our disposal. We must address emerging

problems beore they become security crises. And to do this, we must orge a

new bipartisan consensus at home.

ASP brings together prominent American leaders, current and ormer

members o Congress, retired military ocers, and ormer government

ocials. Sta direct research on a broad range o issues and engages and

empowers the American public by taking its fndings directly to them.

We live in a time when the threats to our security are as complex and diverse

as terrorism, the spread o weapons o mass destruction, climate change,ailed and ailing states, disease, and pandemics. Te same-old solutions

and partisan bickering wont do. America needs an honest dialogue about

security that is as robust as it is realistic.

ASP exists to promote that dialogue, to orge consensus, and to spur

constructive action so that America meets the challenges to its security while

seizing the opportunities the new century oers.

www.aa.g