crisis & incident management 'need for speed’ - why and ... · boyd and the ooda loop...
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Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618
Crisis & incident management 'need for speed’ - why and
how to get it?
Presented by Gareth Jones MSc, FICPEM, MBCI, MEPS, MCMI
10 October 2017
Crisisinterface
Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618
Speed
Source: DCS :World V2
Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618
Boyd and the OODA loop Recommended reading for anyone interested in competitive strategy and crisis leadership:
Boyd – The fighter pilot who changed the art of war(image source: Amazon) - My SHELFARI review:
This is an excellent read for anyone interested in competitive situations. It seems Boyd had the art of stating the problem in clear terms, such as, the (defence) facts of life, the aerial attack study and a fighter pilots job is to be a 'hoser'. The book is inspiring for anyone who needs to get going - great saying -"Tiger, we are going to do some goddam good work" For a crisis management or BCM professional the concepts of entropy, operating tempo, the OODA loop and attendant German strategy concepts provide possible ways of thinking about the competitive environment and ways of working in a crisis. For a risk professional the being a 'someone' in an organisation or being a 'somebody' defines a choice of approach is available, and his maxim "you better be right" is definitely valid. The inner workings of the Pentagon are exposed and more importantly it shows that in a system some reasons why things are the way they are. The politics shape the solution and interests pull the solution in various ways. Why the UK ended up with the MRCA Tornado! I always thought the F4 Phantom was the meanest looking fighter and he shattered my illusions. In hindsight, why would the F4 looking like a block of flats turn quickly! Agility and technology rule in any competitive environment. Boyd shows the man is critical but the technology is the thing that provides the base capability (Fairy Battles against ME109's!). Boyd also seems to be an example of the rule "that amazing things are only achieved by unreasonable people" Definitely a recommended read.
Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618
Challenges leaders face in crisis
The world has changed:• Market and volatility • Interconnectedness• Web and new media - speed• Modern management practices
• Speed and momentum of a story is very fast
• Pressure builds very quickly• There is a pressing need for
information• Difficult to co-ordinate
communications• Internal stakeholders looking for
guidance quickly• How to collaborate quickly• How to organise• Difficult to get advisors quickly• Not experienced at this• Stakes are very scary• Local versus global
“Capital markets are very quick to identify those that are not managing a crisis well”
Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618
Behind - not
engaged
Slow off the
mark
Struggling to
cope- no
effective
interventions
Coping –
basic short
term
interventions
On it! –
effective
timely quality
interventions
Ahead –
advanced
strategic
interventions
= competitive
advantage
Too slow? – struggling?
Examples?
Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618
Ongoing benchmark
World-classAcceptedLimitedAd-hoc
• Leadership• Teams• Plans• Crisis comms
plan• Notification• Rooms• Exercise• Some key
risk plans
REACTIVE
What percentage of major organisations and institutions have these basics in place?
Accepted practice is not good enough to
meet todays environment?
– who is world class and what do they do?
What is the requirement?
What do we need to
prepare for the ‘real’ world?
Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618
Is there a quest for ‘speed’ in CM&IM?
Quest: a long or arduous search for something – or a task to search for something ‘noble’
▪ Is speed the right object of the quest?▪ If it is - what is it in the context of the challenges
that a CMT/IMT face?▪ Who does ‘speed’ and is there anything we can
learn? ▪ What are the downsides of speed?▪ So what: what are the possible things we could do
now?
Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618
Who does ‘speed’ and is there anything we can learn?
Envelope ‘extenders’• Aviation/space• Trial – data analysis –
trial - etc• Rapid prototyping• Sport – e.g F1, GB cycling
performance programme heated trouser etc. Lance – blood transfusion. Sailing – Ben Ainslee Americas Cup
R&D – objectivesIncremental development of process/capabilityTraining and exercise for performanceLeadership, courage and stamina
Some sectors/leading practice:Examples:• High frequency trading –
access to timely information: front run. Some FS.
• Fast food – process, process, processed
• On line gambling - speed• Apps and some telecoms?• Oil and gas - process• Case studies – tough decisions
and strategy calls
ProcessSpeed = commercial advantageUnderstanding of environmentDynamic understanding of riskDriven by environment
Military/emergency services• Intelligence - detection• Battle procedure• NICS/ICS• Drive for CRIP/sit
awareness (common recognised information picture)
• GIS and data fusion
ProcessC4I - intelligence, fusion CRIP CommunicationsTraining, exercise, learn, exercise etc.Leadership
Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618
Who does ‘speed’ and is there anything we can learn?
Envelope ‘extenders’• Aviation/space• Trial – data – trial - etc• Rapid prototyping• Sport – e.g F1, GB cycling
performance programme heated trouser etc. Lance – blood transfusion. Sailing – Ben Ainslee Americas Cup
R&D – objectivesIncremental development of process/capabilityTraining and exercise for performanceLeadership, courage and stamina
Some sectors/leading practice:Examples:• High frequency trading –
access to timely information: front run. Some FS.
• Fast food – process, process, processed
• On line gambling - speed• Apps and some telecoms?• Oil and gas - process• Case studies – tough decisions
and strategy calls
ProcessSpeed = commercial advantageUnderstanding of environmentDynamic understanding of riskDriven by environment
Military/emergency services• Intelligence - detection• Battle procedure• NICS/ICS• Drive for CRIP/sit
awareness• GIS and data fusion
ProcessC4I - intelligence, fusion CRIP CommunicationsTraining, exercise, learn, exercise etc.Leadership
• Speeders develop advanced process • Train and exercise for performance
Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618
We conclude that:72. Involvement of the Bank's Governors resulted in key issues such as the use of the contingency solutions, the content of press statements and the potential impact on 'real economy' transactions being considered and prioritised through the day.
73. The absence of a defined structure and process to improve situational awareness in support of the Governors meant that the specific issue regarding the timing of housing market transactions was not identified or escalated early enough. Combined with an
expectation that the incident would be resolved quickly, these factors influenced the decisions regarding the first media statement, and the decision not to invoke MIRS at an early stage.74. Whilst the Bank's press releases were limited and the initial press release may have been open to misinterpretation, overall the Bank's engagement with the media was considerable and this avoided uninformed or alarmist reporting.
Process example: RTGS failure
Source: Bank of England RTGS failure report £289.3
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The Panel recommends that triggers for escalation should be defined that are clear and ensure early deployment of the higher level command and control structures. Any forecast snow event of a material size should automatically trigger: •The implementation of the snow contingency process,including holding a snow contingency meeting , the mobilisation of the “snowcell” with BAA, airlines and their ground handlers, NATS and ACL representation. The snow cell, once activated should remain fully operational and functional until the event is over and operations have normalised. The snow cell should not be deactivated without a closing debriefing with stakeholders; •The notification of non-operational staff and contractors that they may be called up (subject to prior contractual agreement); •The invocation of the Bronze, Silver or Gold Command depending on the nature and expected severity of the event; •The mobilisation of the Capacity Constraints Group as soon as it is clear that
Process example: Heathrow
Source: Begg Report Heathrow Winter Resilience
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Tools
Process after initial meetings
Meeting 3 Execute Meeting 4
Cadence of
meetings and
approval of AP 2 to
be recommended
to GMT Leadership
Tool
4,5,6,7
Go
al/
co
mm
en
tA
cti
vit
y
Execute Meeting 5 Execute Meeting 6
Goal by
Meeting 3 –
to have the
initial
stakeholder
map defined
Goal by
Meeting 4 –
Draft AP
number 1 to
be reviewed
and
approved if
possible
Goal by
Meeting 4 –
AP to be
approved
and comms
approved
Goal by
Meeting 6 –
critical
stakeholders
and
company
wide comms
Tool
4,5,6,7
Tool
4,5,6,7
Tool
4,5,6,7
Process: operating model
Board
Group Crisis
Management
Team (GCMT)
Leader
Leader
support
Communications
Leader
Business
Facing Leader
Planning
Leader
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identifiedthreat/risk Issues
Identify characteristics that would cause management to become involved
If we were watching this issue what signals/or indicators should we track and what is the threshold
example:Infectious disease
characteristics escalationcriteria
notificationactivation management to intervene resolution
time
Identify characteristics that would immediately need appropriate level management to become involved?
InterventionActivationthreshold
What characteristics are needed to define thresholda. strategic, b. operationalc.tactical levels
If this occurred who would need to be notified and/or involved?What contingency plan do we need on place?
Precaution – if this escalates we should be ready
PrecautionaryActivationthreshold
Process: signal detection
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Downsides of speed?
▪ We do want speed – interventions matter, but we don’t want:
Hasty decisions - short-termism = mistakes (Madrid) Bad decisions:
Groupthink Narrow perspectives – expertise not engaged Rule of thumb – overconfidence – atavism Filtering and bias – e.g. anchoring
▪ Times to be slow? (slow food, slow school, slow sex, dynamic inactivity!). Let someone else speak.
▪ Ironically the product of being speedy in process is that you can decide to be slow!!
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To be world class – exercise, exercise ,exercise
Knowledge
Behaviour
Skills
Attitude
Train & exercise for performance
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16
Overview exercise progression for ISO 22316 OR and ISO 22398 Exercises
Crisis management seminarBriefing for executivesPlan introduction
Table top
Crisis management exercise
- single team simulation
- multiple team
- business game (war game)
Live
Exercises
Complexity/resources
Inte
nsi
ty/c
apab
ility
/ass
ura
nce
Used for
development
embedding/
validation
Used for performance
development/validation
Co-operation/readinessMicro exercise
Action based
Discussion based
The diagramme below shows the progression of exercises and their key purpose. The exercises below the horizontal line are discussion and thinking based and ‘above the line’ are action based.
Drill
Train & exercise for performance
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Acknowledge. Recognise that crisis and incident management speed and fidelity requirement has changed significantly - get a quest
Be proactive. Redesign operating models to provide process to assist generation of possible intervention strategies, collaboration and operations related to the real business environment
Speed. We need to be fast to detect, alert, notify, make strategy and enable communications with stakeholders. Speed takes practice
Gain performance. To help our management to be prepared to thrive in the new interconnected volatile environment - to thrive and take advantage – use realistic experiential exercises representing the real business environment
What could we do?
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