crisis action planning & the commander’s estimate process 23 february 2001

Crisis Action Planning & the Commander’s Estimate

Process

23 February 2001

PurposePurpose

To present MPAT doctrine for crisis action To present MPAT doctrine for crisis action planning and the Commander’s Estimateplanning and the Commander’s Estimate

JP 3-0 JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint OperationsDoctrine for Joint OperationsJP 5-00.2 JP 5-00.2 JTF Planning Guidance & Procedures JTF Planning Guidance & Procedures

CJCSM 3122.01CJCSM 3122.01 Joint Operation Planning & Execution Joint Operation Planning & Execution System (JOPES), Volume I (Planning System (JOPES), Volume I (Planning Policies & Procedures)Policies & Procedures)

CJCSM 3122.03CJCSM 3122.03 JOPES, Volume II (Planning Formats & JOPES, Volume II (Planning Formats & Guidance)Guidance)

ReferencesReferences

Six phase processSix phase process Key DocumentsKey Documents

– Warning & Alert OrdersWarning & Alert Orders– Commander’s EstimateCommander’s Estimate

Requires Concurrent andRequires Concurrent and Collaborative Planning Collaborative Planning

Key PointsKey Points

Develop a Military Course of Action

Crisis Action Planning (CAP) Procedures:Crisis Action Planning (CAP) Procedures:

Threat to national interestThreat to national interest

Develops rapidlyDevelops rapidly

MayMay require military response require military response

What is a Crisis?What is a Crisis?

Over 70 crisis events in past 10 yearsOver 70 crisis events in past 10 years

No OPLANs apply No OPLANs apply

Why CAP?Why CAP?

Rapid exchange of informationRapid exchange of information

Analysis of situations affecting possible COAsAnalysis of situations affecting possible COAs

Development of feasible COAsDevelopment of feasible COAs

Decisionmaking process to select best COAsDecisionmaking process to select best COAs

Coordination of plans and orders to implement Coordination of plans and orders to implement decisions madedecisions made

CAP Process FeaturesCAP Process Features

Crisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessSTRAT. CDR/NCA Level

IISituationSituation

DevelopmentDevelopment

IIIICrisisCrisis

AssessmentAssessment

IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection

VIExecution

CTF Level CAP crisis action planningCOA course of action

Deployment Employment Transition Redeployment

PlanningPlanning Execution

IIIIIICOACOA


VVExecutionExecutionPlanningPlanning

FormJTF HQ CAPCAP

SITUATIONSITUATIONDEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT

CRISISCRISISASSESSMENTASSESSMENT

COACOADEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT

COACOASELECTIONSELECTION

EXECUTIONEXECUTIONPLANNINGPLANNING EXECUTIONEXECUTION

II IIII IIIIII IVIV VV VIVI

CTFCTFOPERATIONALOPERATIONAL

CTF HQCTF HQFORMATIONFORMATION

EXECUTEORDER

ALERT/PLANNINGORDER

AugmentationAugmentation

WARNING ORDER

CAT/OPTCAT/OPT

COMMANDER’SESTIMATE

WARNING ORDER

CJTF’sOPORD

HIGHCON/NCA’sASSESSMENT

COMMANDER’SESTIMATE

CINC’sOPORD

CAP ProcessCAP Process

Phase I: Situation DevelopmentPhase I: Situation Development

CRISISSTRAT CDR’S ASSESSMENTSTRAT CDR’S ASSESSMENT

Nature of the CrisisNature of the CrisisForces AvailableForces AvailableMajor ConstraintsMajor ConstraintsAction Being TakenAction Being TakenCOAs Being ConsideredCOAs Being Considered

NCA

STRAT COM

CTF Tasks in CAP, Phase ICTF Tasks in CAP, Phase I



• If CTF If CTF established, established, monitor situationmonitor situation• Prep to Prep to participate in the participate in the CAP processCAP process

Phase II: Crisis AssessmentPhase II: Crisis Assessment

CTF

WARNORD National InterestsNational InterestsNational ObjectivesNational ObjectivesCrisis DeterminationCrisis Determination

WARNORD

STRAT COM

NCA

II

SituationSituationDevelopmentDevelopment

IIIICrisisCrisis



• If CTF If CTF established, established, monitor situationmonitor situation• Review existing Review existing plans & area plans & area studiesstudies

CTF Tasks in CAP, Phase IICTF Tasks in CAP, Phase II

Warning Order Warning Order

• Guidance and Instructions Guidance and Instructions

• SituationSituation• C2 RelationshipsC2 Relationships

• Mission, Objective, and AssumptionsMission, Objective, and Assumptions• Allocate Forces and Trans AssetsAllocate Forces and Trans Assets

Phase III: COA DevelopmentPhase III: COA Development

NCA

COMMANDER’S COMMANDER’S ESTIMATEESTIMATE

COMMANDER’S COMMANDER’S ESTIMATEESTIMATE

WARNORDWARNORD

ACTIVATION / WARNING ACTIVATION / WARNING ORDERORDER

CTF

STRAT CDR

II

SituationSituationDevelopmentDevelopment

IIIICrisisCrisis


IIIIIICOACOA


FormFormCTF HQCTF HQ

STRAT CDR’S STRAT CDR’S WARNORDWARNORD



• Commence participation in the Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CAP process as directed by STRAT CDRCDR

(CTF components may be activated (CTF components may be activated for planning)for planning)

CTF WARNORD to CTF CTF WARNORD to CTF componentscomponents• Conduct Commander’s Estimate Conduct Commander’s Estimate processprocess

CTF Tasks in CAP, Phase IIICTF Tasks in CAP, Phase III

CAP & The Commander’s CAP & The Commander’s Estimate ProcessEstimate Process

CCRRIISSIISS



IIIICrisisCrisis


IVIVCourse of Course of

ActionActionSelectionSelection


WarningWarningOrderOrder

PlanningPlanningOrderOrder

AlertAlertOrderOrder

ExecuteExecuteOrderOrder

OPORD OPORD & &

TPFDDTPFDD

VIVIExecutionExecution

AND/ORAND/ORII

Mission Analysis/Mission Analysis/Restated MissionRestated Mission IIII

Course of ActionCourse of ActionDevelopmentDevelopment IIIIII

Analysis of OpposingAnalysis of OpposingCourses of ActionCourses of Action

IVIVComparison of OwnComparison of OwnCourses of ActionCourses of Action V

Commander’s

Decision

IIICourse of

ActionDevelopment

Commander’s Estimate ProcessCommander’s Estimate Process

Commander’s EstimateCommander’s EstimateThe The Commander’s EstimateCommander’s Estimate submitted by the supported submitted by the supported commander in response to a STRAT CDR’S Warning commander in response to a STRAT CDR’S Warning Order, provides the STRAT CDR with Order, provides the STRAT CDR with time-sensitive time-sensitive informationinformation for consideration by the NCA in meeting a for consideration by the NCA in meeting a crisis situation. Essentially, it reflects the supported crisis situation. Essentially, it reflects the supported commander’s commander’s analysisanalysis of the various COAs that may be of the various COAs that may be used to accomplish the mission and containsused to accomplish the mission and contains recommendationsrecommendations as to the best COA.as to the best COA.

Commander’s EstimateCommander’s Estimate

• COA Recommendation• Remarks

• MissionMission• Situation and Courses of Action (COA)Situation and Courses of Action (COA)

• Analysis of Opposing COAsAnalysis of Opposing COAs• Comparison of own COAsComparison of own COAs

Paragraph 1: Mission Statement

CTF Commander’s Restated Mission CTF Commander’s Restated Mission StatementStatement

List Essential TasksList Essential Tasks

Paragraph 2:Situation and Courses of Action

3 Subparagraphs(A) Considerations Affecting the Possible COAs(B) Crisis/Threat Analysis(C) Own COAs

Include Only Minimum Information Necessary to Support the

Recommendation

The STRAT CDR is Primarily Concerned With the Results, Not the Analysis

Considerations Affecting Considerations Affecting Possible COAsPossible COAs

AssumptionsAssumptions

Factors that effect Crisis•Weather•Terrain•Medical Conditions•NGO/PVO Support•Logistics•Time/Space Factors

Characteristics of the Combined Opns Area

• Topography• Hydrography• WX/Climate• Transportation• Telecommunications• Politics, Economics, etc.

Threat/Crisis FactorsThreat/Crisis Factors

These factors are those events that could These factors are those events that could occur and, if they do occur, will affect the occur and, if they do occur, will affect the accomplishment of the mission...accomplishment of the mission...

Development of Threat/Crisis Factors KeyDevelopment of Threat/Crisis Factors Key• What events can occur that will worsen the What events can occur that will worsen the

crisis?crisis?• Would these materially affect mission Would these materially affect mission

accomplishment?accomplishment?

Own COAsOwn COAs Normally limited to two or three COAsNormally limited to two or three COAs Forces requiredForces required Force providerForce provider DestinationDestination Required delivery datesRequired delivery dates Coordinated deployment estimateCoordinated deployment estimate Employment estimateEmployment estimate Strategic lift requirements, if appropriateStrategic lift requirements, if appropriate

Suitable, Feasible, Acceptable, & DistinguishableSuitable, Feasible, Acceptable, & Distinguishable

Paragraph 3:Paragraph 3:Analysis of Opposing COAsAnalysis of Opposing COAs

Paragraph 3 describes in some detail the results of Paragraph 3 describes in some detail the results of wargaming COAs during Crisis Action Planning. wargaming COAs during Crisis Action Planning. Description should illustrate that the commander Description should illustrate that the commander considered the most significant and influential factors, considered the most significant and influential factors, events, and consequences.events, and consequences.

MDCOAMDCOA MPCOAMPCOA

Normally the supporting tools (decision matrix) Normally the supporting tools (decision matrix) used in the analysis are not included in the final used in the analysis are not included in the final documentdocument

For the submission to the STRAT CDR, include For the submission to the STRAT CDR, include only the final statement of conclusionsonly the final statement of conclusions

Advantages and disadvantages if significant in Advantages and disadvantages if significant in assisting the STRAT CDR in arriving at a assisting the STRAT CDR in arriving at a decisiondecision

Paragraph 4:Paragraph 4:Comparison of Own COAsComparison of Own COAs

Comparison CriteriaComparison Criteria

May give the rationale used May give the rationale used by the commander in the by the commander in the

decision processdecision process

Supported Commander’s Supported Commander’s recommended COArecommended COA

Paragraph 5:Paragraph 5:Recommended COARecommended COA

Miscellaneous comments that bear Miscellaneous comments that bear directly on the operation planningdirectly on the operation planning

Paragraph 6: RemarksParagraph 6: Remarks

Forces required for a COA that are not Forces required for a COA that are not yet officially apportionedyet officially apportioned

Caveats to COAs if strategic or Caveats to COAs if strategic or operational situation changes operational situation changes

– Intervention of a third partyIntervention of a third party– Impact of a major disaster (volcano, flood, Impact of a major disaster (volcano, flood,

hurricane, etc.)hurricane, etc.)– Impending refugee problemImpending refugee problem

Recommended changes to ROERecommended changes to ROE

Commander’s EstimateCommander’s EstimateLessons LearnedLessons Learned

Don’t parrot the STRAT CDR’s Mission Don’t parrot the STRAT CDR’s Mission in the Mission Paragraphin the Mission Paragraph– Tailor to operational level missionTailor to operational level mission– Use to clarify and narrow the missionUse to clarify and narrow the mission

Avoid a complete historical discussion Avoid a complete historical discussion of the problem in Paragraph 2of the problem in Paragraph 2– Concentrate on recent or unfolding eventsConcentrate on recent or unfolding events– Don’t forget political or societal events that affect Don’t forget political or societal events that affect

the missionthe mission– Highlight approaching trigger events that would Highlight approaching trigger events that would

dramatically alter or accelerate eventsdramatically alter or accelerate events

Lessons Learned (Cont.)Lessons Learned (Cont.)

Keep COAs at operational levelKeep COAs at operational level– Avoid tactical details; work at component and Avoid tactical details; work at component and

major force levelmajor force level– Omit detail not critical to the general conceptOmit detail not critical to the general concept

Give each COA a short, descriptive Give each COA a short, descriptive namename– Massive force option, air option, low vis optionMassive force option, air option, low vis option

Don’t forget the end state and conflict Don’t forget the end state and conflict terminationtermination

Phase IV: COA SelectionPhase IV: COA SelectionCRISIS ACTION PROCEDURESCRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES

Begins: Recommended COA Begins: Recommended COA presented to the NCApresented to the NCA

Ends: NCA Decision in a Ends: NCA Decision in a Planning or Alert OrderPlanning or Alert Order

CTF ACTIONSCTF ACTIONS

• Staff Prepares PlanStaff Prepares Plan

• Force PreparationForce Preparation

• Deployability Posture Deployability Posture ReportsReports

• React to NCA/STRAT CDR React to NCA/STRAT CDR Modifications and ChangesModifications and Changes

• Refine Estimates and Refine Estimates and Resolves Identified ShortfallsResolves Identified Shortfalls

Major Focus of Activity is NCAMajor Focus of Activity is NCA

UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED



IIIICrisisCrisis


IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection

IIIIIICOACOA



STRAT CDR’s STRAT CDR’s WARNORDWARNORD






• Prep for Prep for execution execution planningplanning•CTF CTF PLANORD PLANORD &/or &/or ALERTORD ALERTORD to CTF to CTF componentscomponents

STRAT CDR’s STRAT CDR’s PLANORD &/orPLANORD &/or

ALERTORDALERTORD

CTF Tasks in CAP, Phase IVCTF Tasks in CAP, Phase IV

CRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES CTF ACTIONSCRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES CTF ACTIONS

Begins: Receipt of Begins: Receipt of Planning or Alert OrderPlanning or Alert Order

Ends: Decision to ExecuteEnds: Decision to Execute(Execution Order)(Execution Order)

• Identify and Assign Tasks to Identify and Assign Tasks to Units Units

• Converts COA into OPORDConverts COA into OPORD• TPFDD UpdatedTPFDD Updated• Units May Begin DeploymentUnits May Begin Deployment• Service ReportingService Reporting• Review Force Support Review Force Support

Requirements Requirements• Resolve Shortfalls and Resolve Shortfalls and

Limitations Limitations• Complete country clearancesComplete country clearances

Phase V: Execution PlanningPhase V: Execution Planning

UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED



IIIICrisisCrisis


IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection

IIIIIICOACOA




STRAT CDR’s STRAT CDR’s WARNORDWARNORD






• Prep for Prep for execution execution planningplanning•CTF CTF PLANORD PLANORD &/or &/or ALERTORD ALERTORD to CTF to CTF componentscomponents

• Develop Develop OPORDOPORD•Develop Develop TPFDD reqtsTPFDD reqts• Validate Validate TPFDD reqts TPFDD reqts to STRAT to STRAT CDRCDR• Monitor Monitor TPFDD buildTPFDD build•Issue Issue OPORDOPORD

STRAT CDR’s STRAT CDR’s PLANORD &/orPLANORD &/or

ALERTORDALERTORD

STRAT CDR’s STRAT CDR’s OPORDOPORD

JTF Tasks in CAP, Phase VJTF Tasks in CAP, Phase V

CRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES CTF ACTIONSCRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES CTF ACTIONS

Begins: NCA Decision to Begins: NCA Decision to execute OPORDexecute OPORD

Ends: Crisis ResolvedEnds: Crisis Resolved

• NCA Publishes Execute Order, NCA Publishes Execute Order, STRAT CDR Transmits to CTFSTRAT CDR Transmits to CTF• CTF Executes OPORDCTF Executes OPORD• TPFDD MaintainedTPFDD Maintained• Evaluate Reception & Onward Evaluate Reception & Onward

Movement Capabilities Movement Capabilities• Continuous ReportingContinuous Reporting

Phase VI: ExecutionPhase VI: Execution

Crisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessNCA/STRAT CDR Level



IIIICrisisCrisis


IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection

VIExecution

CTF Level CAP crisis action planningCOA course of action

Deployment Employment Transition Redeployment

PlanningPlanning Execution

IIIIIICOACOA



FormJTF HQ CAPCAP

By definition, an environment of rapidly changing events– Planning time varying from hours to months

CAP intended to be flexible– Six phases “conducted sequentially,

concurrently, compressed, or eliminated altogether”

CAP FlexibilityCAP Flexibility

CAP Orders in CAP Orders in Recent OperationsRecent Operations

WARNORDWARNORD PLORDPLORD ALORDALORD DEPORDDEPORD EXORDEXORDPROVIDE RELIEF PROVIDE RELIEF (Somalia)(Somalia) XX XX XX

PROVIDE COMFORT PROVIDE COMFORT (N. Iraq)(N. Iraq) XX XX XX XX

PROVIDE HOPE PROVIDE HOPE (Russia)(Russia) XX XX

PROVIDE PROMISE PROVIDE PROMISE (Yugo)(Yugo) XX XX XX XX

ABLE SENTRY ABLE SENTRY (Macedonia)(Macedonia) XX XX

Haiti Advisory Group Haiti Advisory Group (Haiti)(Haiti) XX XX

VIGILANT WARRIOR VIGILANT WARRIOR (Iraq)(Iraq) XX XX

UPHOLD DEMOCRACY UPHOLD DEMOCRACY (Haiti)(Haiti) XX X X XX XXXX

DESERT STRIKE DESERT STRIKE (Iraq)(Iraq) XX X XX X

Questions?