Crime Waves and the Need for Multi-Agency Report Cards of Early Indicators

of Community Crime

Rolf Loeber

University of Pittsburgh/ Free University, Amsterdam, Netherlands

* Is it possible to predict crime waves?

* What are community needs for indicators of future crime waves?

* What would be the role of interagency collaboration in this?

Key questions

UCR Murder and Robbery Rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Rate

per

100

,000

Pop

ulat

ion

Robbery/25

Murder

Homicide rate dramatically decreased in Europe from the middle ages on

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

Local Estimates: Europe

National Series: Europe

USA-National Series

Expon. (Local Estimates: Europe)

Source: Eisner, 2004

Per

sons

kil

led

per

tota

l pop

ulat

ion

of

100,

000

(log

arit

hmic

sca

le)

Year

The current level of homicide in the U.S. is about where Europe was three centuries ago.

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

Local Estimates: Europe

National Series: Europe

USA-National Series

Expon. (Local Estimates: Europe)

Source: Eisner, 2004

Per

sons

kil

led

per

tota

l po

pula

tion

of

100,

000

Year

Some hypotheses concerning the origins of community crime trends:• Community crime trends are not a function of

chance.• Community crime trends are sum of age-crime

curves of successive age cohorts.• Crime trends are most influenced by peak

offending age of juveniles, and by high-rate offenders.

• Peak offending age may vary.• Number of high-rate offenders may vary from age

cohort to age cohort.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Age

Per

cen

tag

e

Youngest sampleOldest samplePoly. (Youngest sample)Poly. (Oldest sample)

Sample Differences in Reported ViolenceAge crime curve. Youngest sample

Age crime curve. Oldest sample

What are the best predictors of violence?

Some results from the Pittsburgh Youth Study

Proportion of Boys Committing Violent Offenses for Different Levels of Risk(based on 11 risk factors out of 51 significant bivariate risk factors)

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

BaseRate

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+

Number of Violence Risk Factors

Perc

enta

ge C

omm

iting

Vio

lenc

e

Source: Loeber et al., 2005

Predictors of Violence and Agency/Department Which Can Record Information

Predictors: Agency/Department• Low SES Census• Family on welfare Census• Bad neighborhood Census• Low school motivation Education• Truancy Education• High parental stress ?• Delinquency before 10 Justice• Cruel to people Health and Human Services• Depressed mood Health and Human Services• Physical aggression Health and Human Services• Callous/unemotional Health and Human Services

Source: Loeber et al., 2005

Predictors of Differences in Violence in Different Cohorts and Agency Which Can

Record InformationPredictor Agency/Department• Held back in school Education• Gun carrying Justice• Gang membership Justice• Drug dealing Justice/Drug Control• Hard drug use Justice/Drug Control• Neighborhood % unemployed Census• Neighborhood median household size Census• Period effects ?

Source: Fabio, Loeber et al., 2006

Example of useful data on risk factors (Pennsylvania) (1)

Source: Casey Foundation Kids Count (accessed 5-8-05)

Example of useful data on risk factors (Pennsylvania) (2)

Source: Casey Foundation Kids Count (accessed 5-8-05)

A visual representation of a city’s total aggregated risk factors.

John A. Pollard, Ph.D. Developmental Research and Programs

No stude nt sin this a re a.

Insufficie nt numbe r ofstude nt s in this are a.

Neighborhood #2

Neighborhood #1 Neighborhood #3

Do we have the right information? (1)

Examples of risk factor surveys and surveys of general well-being:

• The Healthy Youth! survey, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

• The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, sponsored by the CDC, currently does not have data for Pittsburgh.

• The Casey Foundation Kids Count provides data for Pennsylvania, but not more detailed.

Do we have the right information? (2)

• Indicators of School Crime and Safety, sponsored by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, is not available on the neighborhood level.

• Risk Factors for Juvenile Delinquency and Youth Gang Involvement (National Youth Gang Center, 2005).

TIME FOR CHANGE? (1)

A major choice to make:

• Continue with mostly reactive systems of intervention that address juvenile delinquency?

• Expand proactive systems of intervention?

TIME FOR CHANGE? (2)

• Put together Council working group to explore early marker systems and report on available data sources, barriers and feasibility issues.

• Explore options to tie in with existing programs (e.g., Helping America’s Youth initiative).

• Council’s early marker approaches could be used to support state and county development of local early marker systems.