crime trends in california: 10-year analysis€¦ · homicides in san jose. even its high of 47 in...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Crime Trends in California:
10-year Analysis
Prepared by:
The Crime Strategies Unit
Santa Clara County District Attorney’s Office
2
Executive Summary The Crime Strategies Unit seeks to explore the ever-changing rate of crime in California, to better inform the public of
trends, the latest analyses, and to seek effective preventative strategies. This report compiles data from the eight most
populous cities in California to examine what trends emerged during the last 9-11 years. The data has been formatted in
two ways. In the first section, it is formatted with graphs looking at the raw change across crime types within a single
city, or a single category of criminal activity throughout all cities. The second section looks at crime per capita as
compared to other major counties.
Throughout the past decade, there have been many distinctive macro- and micro-trends within the major categories of
crime within our community. What do they mean for policy-making, crime prevention, and every day decision making
for the citizens of Santa Clara County? San Jose stands out. With more than a million residents, the city remains one of
the safest big cities in the country and the statistical driver of the county’s overall crime trends. While the city has
maintained its historically and comparatively low crimes rates, San Jose has experienced some unique microtrends in
recent years. Perhaps the most troubling is a notable increase in gun-related crime. Reported cases of aggravated
assault with a firearm have doubled in the last ten years, with a consistent upward trendline. Similarly, reported
robberies with a firearm have increased in the last ten years. Both trends outpace the statewide trendlines and suggest
that there are locally-specific factors driving this phenomenon. Robberies overall have continued a steady increase over
the last ten years, while every other major California city has seen a decrease in robberies in the last decade. Stolen
vehicle reports remain high after a significant jump in 2012, while the rest of the state has mostly experienced declining
vehicle thefts. However, drops in several prominent crime categories – from shoplifting to homicides - belie an easy
narrative. Residential burglaries in San Jose, and statewide, have steadily declined in recent years to its lowest levels in
more than a decade.
Santa Clara County remains statistically, comparatively and historically safe. Its property crime rates per capita are well
below many other major California counties over the past decade. Its violent crime rates per capita are well below the
rest of the major counties during that period, and indeed lower than the state. In 2017, for example, there were 32
homicides in San Jose. Even its high of 47 in 2016 is dwarfed by comparative cities. San Francisco’s high was 100 (in
2007.) Oakland’s was 145 (in 2006.) Just two years ago, Chicago (albeit with a much larger population) had 762 murders,
404 more than San Jose has suffered over the last 11 years. St. Louis, with a population of 314,000 had 188. It is just as a
statistically valid question to ask why homicides are so comparatively low here as it is to query why car thefts have risen.
Despite mirroring the low crime rates of the 1960s, some have sought to align the handful of troubling rising trends with
a series of statewide criminal justice of reforms which began with California Assembly Bill 109, or Realignment, that
went into effect in late 2011. This was followed three years later by Proposition 47. There is no clear or convincing
evidence that Realignment or Prop. 47 caused a statewide, uniform crime increase. The Public Policy Institute of
California, for example, concluded that increases in violent crime after 2014 seem to have begun before the Proposition
47 was passed.
However, the Institute identified a potential relationship between the Proposition and statewide increases in larceny1.
The statistical jury remains out.
There may be a clearer local catalyst for some of the rising trends. As the statistics show, San Jose has – by far - the
smallest ratio of officers to residents in the county and of the major cities in the US, with about 9 officers per 10,000
residents. As a comparison, San Francisco’s ratio is close to 26 and Oakland has close to 18. We note that some of San
1 The Impact of Proposition 47 on Crime and Recidivism, 2018 Public Policy Institute of California. Available at:
http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/r_0618mbr.pdf
3
Jose’s crime trends which rose while falling in other parts of the state (car thefts being a prime example) began just as
the police department dramatically bled staff. The Rand Corporation studied this phenomenon on a national level in
2010, concluding that the crime prevention benefit of hiring more officers is well worth the cost.
There may be few simple conclusions to be drawn from these statistics. However, there is a clear path forward. We will
continue to keep our close and careful attention upon our local crime trends. We will work with our law enforcement
agencies, governments, NGOs, and neighborhoods to keep this county safe to live, visit, and work. In the last year, for
example, we and our law enforcement partners have launched a county-wide Gun Initiative – looking at a variety of
ways to quickly get weapons out of the hands of dangerous criminals. Preliminary results are positive. Analytics are
increasingly key tools in fighting crime. However, the people of Santa Clara County are not statistics. One life saved is a
worthy goal. One murder solved is success. We will continue to seek a safer, smarter, fairer justice for all.
4
Methodology In Part One of the Report, the eight most populous cities in California are compared across multiple crime types. These
charts show ten-year crime trendlines for each city, allowing the reader to see what is going on individually in those
jurisdictions. The numbers reflect reported incidents as maintained by the California Department of Justice, regardless
of whether the case resulted in an arrest/citation.
Terminology/Definitions Definitions taken from State of California Department of Justice OpenJustice website2
Aggravated Assault – an unlawful attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated
bodily injury. This type of assault usually is accompanied by the use of a weapon or by means likely to produce death or
great bodily harm.
Burglary – the unlawful entry of a structure to commit a felony or a theft. Attempted burglary is included.
Homicide – the willful (non-negligent) killing of one human being by another. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter
are included.
Larceny-Theft – the unlawful taking, carrying, leading, or riding away of property from the possession or constructive
possession of another. Attempted larcenies are included. Embezzlement, confidence games, forgery, check fraud, etc.,
are excluded.
Motor Vehicle Theft – the theft or attempted theft of a motor vehicle. A motor vehicle is self-propelled and runs on land
surface and not on rails. Motorboats, construction equipment, airplanes, and farming equipment are specifically
excluded from this category.
Robbery – the taking or attempting to take anything of value from the care, custody, or control of a person or persons
by force or threat of force or violence and/or by putting the victim in fear.
2 https://openjustice.doj.ca.gov/downloads/Crimes-Clear-Arson%20Context.pdf
PART ONE: CITY TRENDLINES BY SPECIFIED CRIME TYPES
Homicide
5
2933 31
28
20
39
45
38
32 30
47
32
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseHomicide 2006-2017
145
119 115104
90104
126
9080 85 85
69
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandHomicide 2006-2017
480
395 384
312 293 297 299251 260 282 293 281
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesHomicide 2006-2017
41 42 40 40
32
25
32 34
23
3633
22
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachHomicide 2006-2017
52 52
40 4245
35
51
40
47
39 39
56
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoHomicide 2006-2017
57
4449
3033
36 34 3428
43 41 39
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoHomicide 2006-2017
68
5955
41
29
38
4739
3237
50
35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoHomicide 2006-2017
86100 98
45 48 50
69
48 4553 57 56
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoHomicide 2006-2017
Total Aggravated Assault
6
3614 37164129
34652942 2981
32272792
3140
23912621
2376
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandTotal Agg. Assault 2006-2017
1463412926
1179810638
9344 8843 8329 76249836
1371315874
16957
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesTotal Agg. Assault 2006-2017
2435 2418 2372 2310 23862105 2116
26533137
2703 2616 2658
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoTotal Agg. Assault 2006-2017
3811 3882 3597 3667 36513317
3661 3492 3493 3601 3323 3217
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoTotal Agg. Assault 2006-2017
31152881
26822350 2423
2022 21501850 1862
2289 2284 2140
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoTotal Agg. Assault 2006-2017
2057
17881678 1720
1898 18091628 1556 1501
16531887 1786
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoTotal Agg. Assault 2006-2017
22852441
22682128
19661840
20141812 1832 1855
2175 2209
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseTotal Agg. Assault 2006-2017
1805 17401511 1609
1352 1400 13191091
12821499 1478
1639
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachTotal Agg. Assault 2006-2017
Assault (Firearm)
1250 12081386
10671196
14101598
11111310
802 817
592
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandAssault (Firearm) 2006-2017
5284
4546
35523283 3156 2933
26792325 2506
3524
4243 4068
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesAssault (Firearm) 2006-2017
620540
465 456
343404
440
295242
413354 356
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachAssault (Firearm) 2006-2017
588
477414
467
587631
512
396354
555
697
575
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoAssault (Firearm) 2006-2017
843
663601
517
707
507
655
514 504
742 778712
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoAssault (Firearm) 2006-2017
667 689
542
437402
318
434388
349400
461
364
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoAssault (Firearm) 2006-2017
266 278255
212248
227
178 163
378
264
310 295
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoAssault (Firearm) 2006-2017
225
305265 242 238
272
408 392367 360
431
507
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseAssault (Firearm) 2006-2017
Assault (Knife)
8
622 636 606 599641
579 585519 505
542602
540
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseAssault (Knife) 2006-2017
282
145
108
69 6345 40
58 53
275
144
228
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandAssault (Knife) 2006-2017
30422677 2684
24391989 2033 2017 1892
2164
3294
38184189
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesAssault (Knife) 2006-2017
327
278242
264
219
262
185 201 195
239
288262
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachAssault (Knife) 2006-2017
465
402358 359 363
425
358308 307
348 346 333
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoAssault (Knife) 2006-2017
470
398 399 409
342 332354 348 332
414
341301
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoAssault (Knife) 2006-2017
864935
815744 711 710 714 703 738 743 713 715
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoAssault (Knife) 2006-2017
440 419366 378 372
345
406
485510
388337 325
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoAssault (Knife) 2006-2017
Assault (No Weapons)
9
381337
305
253
338
278 260 251219 206
278
231
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseAssault (No Weapons) 2006-2017
597
506543 529
325 314 295249 266 241 257 275
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandAssault (No Weapons) 2006-2017
22852083 2230
17961398 1352 1270 1214
2028
29423292
3863
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesAssault (No Weapons) 2006-2017
170140 130
166
130 140
216
165
260240
217237
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long Beach Assault (No Weapons) 2006-2017
390356 338
372417
293315
406
324
256280 291
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Fresno Assault (No Weapons) 2006-2017
465496 479
412 408
298 282 280335 343 322
297
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoAssault (No Weapons) 2006-2017
795867 888
1244 12341141
1214 1188
986925
688586
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoAssault (No Weapons) 2006-2017
615706
652752 754
637 646
882
1017905 885 855
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoAssault (No Weapons) 2006-2017
Vehicle Theft
10
71396413
5229 5379 5411 5121
87597926 7560
70017703 8068
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseVehicle Theft 2006-2017
105499968
8085
6542
4644
63056976 6833 6519 6389
6899
5495
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandVehicle Theft 2006-2017
2538923524 22623
1839117046
15597 15084 14382 1378816152
18591 19193
200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Los AngelesVehicle Theft 2006-2017
3284
2860 2872
23612189 2212
26302355
2081
2830 2859 2729
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachVehicle Theft 2006-2017
4944
40233777
3248
4553 47804301
4057
3103 29933284
2789
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoVehicle Theft 2006-2017
7175
6073
49104146 3994
3335 33462861
23972923 2824 2718
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoVehicle Theft 2006-2017
13338 13224
10677
74966389 6259 6610 6143
5006 50965839
5135
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoVehicle Theft 2006-2017
66365903 5758
4913
3903 4174
53395866 6126
6915
54334834
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoVehicle Theft 2006-2017
Burglary (Residence)
11
3060 3066
2389 2574 27293080
3847 3831 37413332
26352314
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseBurglary (Residence) 2006-2017
2539 26242870
3486 3651 3839
4457
3479
2719
21961799
1597
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandBurglary (Residence) 2006-2017
13949 14024 14552 1413013245 12963 12246 11828
10954 10612 10085 10155
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesBurglary (Residence) 2006-2017
2013 2002 20652204 2119
2296
2795 2829
24232149 2125
1901
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachBurglary (Residence) 2006-2017
2798 2618 28113019
36923904 3995
34233136
2935
2383 2398
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoBurglary (Residence) 2006-2017
3909 3829 3825 3918 3750
29583185
2908
22362523
2017 1830
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoBurglary (Residence) 2006-2017
3384
2460
29462573
23582144
2832 28232566
22422045 1997
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoBurglary (Residence) 2006-2017
4491 45004864 4661
4346
37164065 4045
33203609
3266
2390
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoBurglary (Residence) 2006-2017
Burglary (Non-Residence)
12
1363 1383
10681167 1211 1143
1359 13421426
1564 1625 1612
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseBurglary (Non-Residence) 2006-2017
2531
2118
1618
1312 1310 1331
17111579
12871137 1101 1025
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandBurglary (Non-Residence) 2006-2017
6410
56055174
4305 4165 4301 4142 3900 4116
5548 57366513
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesBurglary (Non-Residence) 2006-2017
883 9031015
912810
979 1004947
1059945
863 864
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachBurglary (Non-Residence) 2006-2017
1568
1279 1362 14041570
1809 19071800
1585 14941314 1251
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoBurglary (Non-Residence) 2006-2017
2266
15931391
1217 1277 11831289
978 10021190
1053 1058
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoBurglary (Non-Residence) 2006-2017
3255 31792879
2032 2041 21241837
2310
17951520 1477 1427
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoBurglary (Non-Residence) 2006-2017
3081
26192455
2624
2199 22642485
3108
26712944 2933 2938
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoBurglary (Non-Residence) 2006-2017
Total Robberies
13
1030 1068 11241025 976
11011208
1095 10721140
1214
1376
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseTotal Robberies 2006-2017
3534 3470 33232898 2917
3365
43384922
3481 3290 30762676
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandTotal Robberies 2006-2017
1435313481 13422
1221710924
100778983
7885 79498952
10307 10814
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesTotal Robberies 2006-2017
1440 1506 14871381
12021320
12391118
8891054
11381237
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachTotal Robberies 2006-2017
1282
1104984
10851021 1020 1015
903781
10121122
958
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoTotal Robberies 2006-2017
21882009
17611606
1491
1162 1211 11581000
1174 1136 1100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoTotal Robberies 2006-2017
2164 2095 20191905
16361456 1517 1456
1318 1378 1387 1410
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San Diego Total Robberies 2006-2017
3858 37714108
34233180 3088
3484
4202
32243610
3175 3220
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoTotal Robberies 2006-2017
Robberies (Firearm)
14
240215 220
197 214251
336293 282 298 281
381
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseRobberies (Firearm) 2006-2017
1708 1787 18101471 1615
1927
2553
3140
1861 17551552
1202
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandRobberies (Firearm) 2006-2017
5109 49094437
40883577
28872363 2220 2042
22942816 2804
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesRobberies (Firearm) 2006-2017
340370 373
316
228194
234 229
125146
10182
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachRobberies (Firearm) 2006-2017
448
349301
355 344323
344
293
232
368401
297
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Fresno Robberies (Firearm) 2006-2017
706629 639
502 494
342400
352291
397 398 375
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoRobberies (Firearm) 2006-2017
495448
393 375321
276 284239 219
185239 220
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoRobberies (Firearm) 2006-2017
823905
1030
817763
617705
840
676616
563 576
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoRobberies (Firearm) 2006-2017
Robberies (Strong-Arm)
15
483
596 593 586540
602 616565 571 598
649694
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseRobberies (Strong-Arm) 2006-2017
1453 13981266 1224
11191238
1503 14831352 1278 1222 1182
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandRobberies (Strong-Arm) 2006-2017
5994 57016055
56485160 5227
4751
3945 41324653
50925448
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesRobberies (Strong-Arm) 2006-2017
869 858929
872819
935872
755686
818
958
1095
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachRobberies (Strong-Arm) 2006-2017
580 576537 562
503 525 519467
415481
537497
580 576537
503 525 519467
415481
537497
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoRobberies (Strong-Arm) 2006-2017
11721110
892 835766
635 619 621548 567 556 551
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoRobberies (Strong-Arm) 2006-2017
1257 1247 1273 1231
1065972 995 940
857935 902 904
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoRobberies (Strong-Arm) 2006-2017
24382276
2531
21641975 2008
2294
2829
20382316
2050 2017
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoRobberies (Strong-Arm) 2006-2017
Larceny
16
12678 13200 13612 1363512730 12628
14498
12411 1185013138 12786 13329
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseLarceny 2006-2017
8725 8954 8915 88337720
9429
13198 13285 1384214846 14153
17305
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandLarceny 2006-2017
59711 58304 58472 57414 55248 53469 56006 55734 5428161191
64739 65757
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesLarceny 2006-2017
65987214 7039 7166
65247329 7702
6868 6875
8413 8377
7104
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long Beach Larceny 2006-2017
14097
13049
14106
13359
1464514928
15534
13304 13277
14184
1354213782
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoLarceny 2006-2017
12762 12904 1237311720 11179 11087
1214711233
9443 9865 9389 9077
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoLarceny 2006-2017
23891 23474 25142 24399 23905 2430428242
3652733730
4091836991
44587
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoLarceny 2006-2017
24125 2326421945
18057 17977 1761019188 19230
1669118933 18042 17294
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoLarceny 2006-2017
Larceny (Motor Vehicle)
17
3341
44005118 5088
4510 4306
56734875 4928
5450 5136
5966
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseLarceny (Motor Vehicle) 2006-2017
2285 2639 24731551 1429 1690
2638
3840
56036250 6308
8545
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandLarceny (Motor Vehicle) 2006-2017
24868 24931 23924 2367221929 21208 21891 21591
1337114701
1707018399
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesLarceny (Motor Vehicle) 2006-2017
3496 34483146
3318
2700
31723453
30512830
3760 3696
2773
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachLarceny (Motor Vehicle) 2006-2017
34893228
3647 3705
4676 4582
5465
3429
4157
5354 5513 5516
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoLarceny (Motor Vehicle) 2006-2017
5646 54745065 5184
43273940
44693948
2988 3127 3121 3106
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoLarceny (Motor Vehicle) 2006-2017
1328012197
11356
8796 8517
68957754 7753
6084 6661 7161 7124
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoLarceny (Motor Vehicle) 2006-2017
14337 13252 1207710275 9385 10197
12073
1727819740
2288320661
29736
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoLarceny (Motor Vehicle) 2006-2017
Larceny (Shoplifting)
18
2160 2117
2462
2857
2453 2366
2030
1667 1686
20771860
1526
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseLarceny (Shoplifting) 2006-2017
436 423
537 549
361387 365 373
343 319293
351
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandLarceny (Shoplifting) 2006-2017
2750 2539
35713906
3563 3664 3969 3817
4875
64477146
6476
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesLarceny (Shoplifting) 2006-2017
538
728
864
752 735 721 740
621720
806758
913
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachLarceny (Shoplifting) 2006-2017
2205 2062
2477 25862388 2391 2475
30322826 2972
2318
1595
2205 2062
2477 25862388 2391 2475
30322826 2972
2318
1595
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoLarceny (Shoplifting) 2006-2017
924 895
1230
14411281
1069
850969
1099 1039886
508
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoLarceny (Shoplifting) 2006-2017
2212 2332 2270 2271 2296 2340 2397 22892473
2889
2311
1801
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoLarceny (Shoplifting) 2006-2017
25322355
25882371
2203 2147
1845
22042013
2458
19072188
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoLarceny (Shoplifting) 2006-2017
Larceny (Building)
19
1988 2067 1971
14001501
1921
1638
830 819 811 862729
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseLarceny (Building) 2006-2017
529483
352
183 159120
199
124
188
5192
146
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandLarceny (Building) 2006-2017
19069 18165 17754 17603 17389 17048 17772 17449
23811
18388 17592 17734
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesLarceny (Building) 2006-2017
625710
602 601 640 646713 713
818 807711
666
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachLarceny (Building) 2006-2017
1816 18201646 1648 1636 1619 1558
11981279 1252 1303 1268
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoLarceny (Building) 2006-2017
1586
1011842
757 724587 565
291132 191 127 72
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoLarceny (Building) 2006-2017
4640 47044415
34213652
4564 4604 4455
39504413 4476 4611
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoLarceny (Building) 2006-2017
22872473 2457 2538 2624
3042 3042 30722812 2942
2560 2609
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoLarceny (Building) 2006-2017
Larceny (Felony)
20
3827 3995 4247 4050 3799 4122
5003 5203 50715708 5726
6325
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San JoseLarceny (Felony) 2006-2017
14011800 1726
2179 23733221
46605497
65186982
6568
9038
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OaklandLarceny (Felony) 2006-2017
25482 26401 27080 25815 25305 25091 26555 2695524858
2760929349 30089
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Los AngelesLarceny (Felony) 2006-2017
2228 22062021
2450
2133
2480 2447
19781811
2337
17631566
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long BeachLarceny (Felony) 2006-2017
3791 40324458
38864614
52325734
4604 4450 4663 4474 4522
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FresnoLarceny (Felony) 2006-2017
44124811 4847
4385 42204481
54784908
3971 4079 4060 3967
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SacramentoLarceny (Felony) 2006-2017
484 619 721 634 677 1333 1816 2118 2469 2207 2380
21024
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San FranciscoLarceny (Felony) 2006-2017
98249162 8773
69817652 7938
8706 8956
74708435 8380
7924
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
San DiegoLarceny (Felony) 2006-2017
*The 2017 total appears to be due to a
definition and reporting change at SFPD
21
PART TWO: Crime Rates Adjusted for Population
San Jose vs Rest of Santa Clara County All statistics represent the number of cases per 100,000 residents.
22
23
24
Crime Rates in 15 largest California counties
In this section we compare rates of different crimes in the 15 largest counties in California (Los Angeles, San Diego,
Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Clara, Alameda, Sacramento, Contra Costa, Fresno, Kern, San Francisco,
Ventura, San Mateo, and San Joaquin Counties). All crime rates are normalized by the population of that county in that
year, giving the number of crimes per 100,000 residents in that year.
Focusing on the largest counties is essential to reduce “noise” in the data, while the geographic and socioeconomic
diversity among these 15 counties ensures that our comparisons are not unrepresentative. Santa Clara County is
highlighted in each chart, as are the nearby San Francisco County and Alameda County for comparison. San Diego
County is similar in many ways to Santa Clara County, and is also highlighted as a comparison. Certain other counties are
also highlighted in individual charts. Interactive versions of all charts in this section can be found at [INSERT URL]; this
allows close examination of individual datapoints and trendlines for individual counties. Journalists can modify these
interactive charts in order to render the same data in different formats or styles.
Violent Crime Per 100,000 Residents
The category of Violent Crimes includes homicide, rape and attempted rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Data for
each of these categories is presented individually below.
25
Homicides Per 100,000 Residents
It is important to note that the absolute numbers of homicides in each county are extremely low (for example, San
Joaquin County had between 35 and 89 homicides each year). This means the random variation in this chart due to
“noise” is larger than in others, so one should be especially cautious about interpreting any apparent trends in this data.
26
Rape and Attempted Rape
At first glance, this chart might suggest that the incidence of rape has increased dramatically across all counties starting
in 2014. It is certainly true that the number of reported cases has increased (see charts on following page). But two
factors suggest that this impression is misleading, and cast doubt on the prospect that rates of sexual assault have
increased recently.
(1) In 2013, the FBI revised the definition of “rape” for purposes of these statistics.3 The revised definition now
includes cases where the victim is male; cases of oral or anal penetration; and non-consensual cases where force
was not used. In some counties, such as San Francisco County, the new definition was used for the 2014
statistics; in others the new definition was used beginning in 2015. Therefore even without any change in
occurrence of crime, we would expect these statistics to increase in these statistics starting in 2014/2015.
(2) Firsthand reports from law enforcement suggest that the reporting rate for sexual assaults has increased in
recent years, perhaps due to changes in societal attitudes, or increased attention to the problem of sexual
assault. Sexual assault is among the most under-reported crimes (that is, victims of sexual assault are less likely
to report than victims of other violent crimes such as robbery), so changes in reporting rates would affect its
statistics more sharply.
Together, these factors suggest that the rate of sexual assault may not have increased at all. They suggest that the
reality all along has been closer to the current elevated numbers, but that the earlier portion of the graph was artificially
depressed by lower reporting rates and by the restrictive earlier definition. It’s impossible (without extensive further
study) to determine how much of the apparent increase is due to these factors, so we can’t rule out the possibility that
3 The previous classification was “forcible rape,” defined as “the carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will.” The current classification is “rape,” defined as “penetration, no matter how slight, of the vagina or anus with any body part or object, or oral penetration by a sex organ of another person, without the consent of the victim.”
27
rates of sexual assault are in fact increasing somewhat. But we can put this in perspective by comparing with other
violent crimes. Below we compare the statistics across all of California over the longer period 1986-2017 for the most
common violent crimes (robbery and aggravated assault).
There was a slight increase of 14% in the incidence of these violent crimes since 2013, and essentially none since 2010.
However, the statistics for rape and attempted rape show a much sharper increase of 92%, to levels not seen since 1993
(a time when overall violent crime rates were at 238% their current levels). Common sense suggests it is unlikely that
rates of sexual assault have spiked so dramatically while other violent crimes remain roughly constant, and this is borne
out by the experience of law enforcement on the ground.
28
Total Robberies Per 100,000 Residents
Robbery with Firearm Per 100,000 Residents
29
Robbery with Knife Per 100,000 Residents
Aggravated Assault Per 100,000 Residents
30
Aggravated Assault with Firearm Per 100,000 Residents
Aggravated Assault with Knife Per 100,000 Residents
31
Property Crime
The category of Property Crimes includes motor vehicle theft, burglary (both residential and non-residential), and
larceny (including thefts from motor vehicles and from buildings).
Data for each of these categories is presented individually below.
32
Motor Vehicle Thefts per 100,000 Residents
Total Burglaries per 100,000 Residents
33
Residential Burglaries per 100,000 Residents
Non-Residential Burglary per 100,000 Residents
34
Larceny Cases per 100,000 Residents
Larceny from Motor Vehicle per 100,000 Residents
36
Crime Rates in 10 largest California cities In this section we compare rates of different crimes in the 10 largest cities in California (Los Angeles, San Diego, San
Jose, San Francisco, Fresno, Sacramento, Long Beach, Oakland, Bakersfield, and Anaheim). All crime rates are normalized
by the population of that city in that year, giving the number of crimes per 100,000 residents in that year.
San Jose is highlighted in each chart, as are San Francisco and Oakland as nearby comparisons. San Diego, which is
similar in many ways to San Jose, is also highlighted as a comparison. Interactive versions of all charts in this section can
be found at [INSERT URL], or by clicking on the graphs themselves; this allows close examination of individual datapoints
and trendlines for individual cities. Journalists can modify these interactive charts to present the same data in different
formats or styles.
Violent Crime
The category of Violent Crimes includes homicide, rape and attempted rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Data for
each of these categories is presented individually below.
37
Homicides per 100,000 Residents
Rape and Attempted Rape per 100,000 Residents
38
Robbery cases per 100,000 Residents
Aggravated Assault per 100,000 Residents
39
Aggravated Assault with Firearm per 100,000 Residents
Total Property Crimes per 100,000 Residents
40
Motor Vehicle Theft per 100,000 residents
Total Burglary Cases per 100,000 residents
41
Residential Burglary per 100,000 Residents
Non-Residential Burglary per 100,000 Residents
42
Larceny cases per 100,000 Residents
Larceny from Motor Vehicle per 100,000 Residents
43
Police Staffing:
San Jose Police Department experienced a dramatic decrease in the number of sworn personnel in recent years,
resulting in a declared state of emergency in 2016. Beginning in June of 2011, a series of layoffs and then a high rate of
police officer retirements and acceptance of jobs at other police agencies dramatically reduced the police force in San
Jose. In 2017 the department started to increase staffing, but remains one of the leanest police forces in the Country.
When compared to other large metropolitan areas in the United States the staffing levels for San Jose police and the
police agencies in Santa Clara County are remarkably low. For example, San Francisco with a smaller population than
San Jose employs 2,236 police officers – 25.9 officers per 10,000 residents. San Antonio, Texas, which is often
compared to San Jose as a city with a similar population, crime rate and demographics employs 2,191 police officers – 15
per 10,000 residents. The national average for cities with over 500,000 residents is 23.7 officers per 10,000 residents.4
4 http://www.governing.com/gov-data/safety-justice/police-officers-per-capita-rates-employment-for-city-departments.html
14.012.7 12.6
11.6 11.4 11.3 11.2
9.8 9.7 9.3 9.1
Sunnyvale Los Gatos Palo Alto Santa Clara Gilroy Milpitas MountainView
Los Altos Campbell MorganHill
San Jose
Officers per 10,000 Residents
41.3
26.8 25.8 24.8
19.717.5
15 13.4
9.1
New York Dallas SanFrancisco
Los Angeles Seattle Oakland San Antonio San Diego San Jose
Police Officers Per 10,000 Residents
44
In its annual report on Police Staffing, the city of San Jose reported that “the number of sworn, authorized positions per 100,000 residents decreased from 139 in 2007-08 to 106 in 2016-17. SJPD has faced high vacancies and decreasing numbers of street-ready officers. Of the 1,109 authorized sworn positions, only 798 were actual full duty, street-ready (this excludes vacancies, officers in training, or those on modified duty or disability/other leave) as of June 2017.”5
6
Conclusion In the wake of recent increasing crime in Santa Clara County, the Crime Strategies Unit is committed to identifying
solutions to regional crime problems. In this and future reports, the Unit will keep the public informed about what is
happening in our community. More importantly, the District Attorney’s Office is constantly seeking innovative
approaches to combat crime and remains dedicated to swift and fair justice for offenders and victims in Santa Clara
County.
5 City of San José – Annual Report on City Services 2016-17, available at: https://www.sanjoseca.gov/DocumentCenter/View/73917 6 Ibid.